Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 28, 2025, 18:26 UTC
I. Strategic Developments
Ukrainian Command & Capabilities Enhancement:
Stavka Meeting (Mar 28): Focused on accelerating domestic drone development and production (including interceptor, reactive, and fiber-optic types), increasing supply, and maximizing technological advantages. Successful intercepts of Shahed UAVs using interceptor drones noted.
Missile Program: Emphasis on accelerating domestic missile production and establishing Ukrainian production facilities for anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs) and missiles. Ongoing negotiations with partners to localize production of specific AD systems/missiles.
Air Defense Localization & Adaptation: The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade is observed utilizing adapted mobile air defense systems, including Strela-10 and vehicle-mounted R-73 air-to-air missiles repurposed for ground launch.
Intelligence & Production: Confirmed expanded access to partner intelligence data (including satellite imagery) and ammunition stockpiles. Agreements secured for domestic production licenses for air defense systems; work continues on artillery production licenses.
Appointments: Andriy Hnatov officially appointed Chief of the General Staff and member of the Stavka. Specialized deputy ministers and aviation-focused leaders appointed to enhance aviation capabilities.
International Military Cooperation & Aid:
Upcoming Meetings:
Urgent meeting confirmed in Kyiv within the week involving representatives from the general staffs of France, UK, Ukraine, and potentially other core nations prepared to consider a contingent deployment.
Next Ramstein format meeting scheduled for April 2025 (reportedly to be led by Germany and UK), with expectations of new defense packages.
US Aid & Relations:
President Zelensky reiterated Ukraine will not accept past US military aid as debt.
A new US draft agreement (potentially related to mineral resources) received on Mar 28, reportedly differs significantly from previous versions, requiring legal review.
President Zelensky stated the US indicated future aid will not be provided free of charge, though terms for potential repayment may be considered for future packages. Politico (via RU source) previously reported potential future debt obligation of $120bn with 4% annual interest on delayed payments.
European Troop Considerations: Reports suggest European nations reconsidering troop deployments due to constraints. Ukraine reportedly indicated a need for substantial, combat-ready forces, not just peacekeepers (attributed to Ihor Zhovkva by RU source).
Diplomacy & Negotiations:
Ceasefire Concepts: US consultations ongoing with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, European nations on potential mechanisms for monitoring an "energy ceasefire." Previous discussions on a potential temporary ceasefire by Apr 20 assessed as unrealistic by UA official Podolyak without US pressure on Russia. Russian commentary suggests the "energy truce" attempt has ended.
Negotiation Stance: Zelensky indicated potential readiness to negotiate peace terms with representatives of Russian business and opposition figures, rather than directly with President Putin. Trump (via TASS) claimed progress in negotiations. Erdogan offered Turkish mediation during call with Putin.
UN Position: UN Secretary-General Guterres explicitly rejected recent Russian proposals for a UN temporary administration, affirming recognition of the current Ukrainian government. RU sources portray the UN SecGen position as nominal/US-influenced.
Russian Focus & Narrative:
RU MFA formally accused UK/France of involvement in the Sudzha Gas Installation strike. Russia informed Turkey of alleged UA attacks on energy infrastructure during Putin-Erdogan call.
Russia continues narratives emphasizing alleged growing "nationalist/Nazi units" in Ukraine, internal Ukrainian issues (mobilization difficulties, alleged corruption regarding draft evasion), and alleged atrocities (Kursk border, Sudzha hospital strike).
Significant internal efforts observed in Russia (political parties, volunteer groups, religious organizations) to collect funds and deliver vehicles, drones (Mavic 3T/Pro), EW equipment, and supplies to forces in Ukraine, including RCB troops in Kursk Oblast.
RU sources claim return of 25 Russian civilians (previously allegedly forcibly evacuated by UA forces from Kursk Oblast) via agreement. Total claimed returned since Nov 2024: 104; over 70 allegedly remain.
Information Operations:
RU sources disseminated alleged internal UA documents claiming deficiencies in "Novator" armored vehicles (potential info op).
RU sources exploit POW interviews to claim poor treatment/coercion of UA troops (e.g., alleged use in Kursk frontline, alleged drug use). Ukrainian sources release interviews of RU POWs claiming low morale, high losses, and coercion (e.g., 36th MRB soldier captured near Pokrovsk).
Allegations of Ukrainian PsyOps attempting to falsely attribute war crimes to Russia in Sudzha.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Russian Air/Missile/Drone Threats:
Ongoing UAV Threats (Mar 28, evening): Active threat warnings for Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. UAV groups reported moving from Sumy/Kharkiv border towards Poltava Oblast, and from central Sumy towards Chernihiv Oblast.
Persistent reconnaissance UAV activity noted over Kharkiv Oblast.
Continued artillery and drone attacks target rear areas, including Nikopol district (4 men injured Mar 26; 2 men injured Mar 28) and Zelenodolsk community (drone strike Mar 28, infra damage, no casualties) in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Massive UAV Attack (Night Mar 27/28):
UA Air Force: Attack by 163 strike UAVs (Shahed type) and imitator drones. Confirmed 89 strike UAVs shot down. 51 imitator drones "locationally lost."
Impacts confirmed on energy infrastructure ("Naftogaz" gas production facilities) and civilian areas.
RU MoD claimed interception of 78 UA UAVs over 8 RU Oblasts.
Kyiv Update (Past Week, per KMVA): Air alarms 7 times. 98 strike UAVs detected near/over Kyiv; 48 destroyed. Attack on Mar 23 caused infrastructure damage (multiple districts), damage to residential buildings/warehouses, 3 civilian KIA, 10 WIA. 25 false bomb threats received.
Alleged Russian Tactical Shift: Conflicting reports persist regarding RU prioritization (residential vs energy targets) or massing drones (up to 300/day) on single areas.
Claimed Russian Strikes (Verification Required):
RU MoD: Strikes reported in Poltava and Odesa (Mar 28).
RU MoD: Drone strike destroyed dugout in Kharkiv region (Mar 28).
Geran UAV strikes on alleged UAV workshop in Bohodukhiv (Kharkiv Oblast) (Mar 28).
MLRS strikes (BM-21 Grad) on UA positions near Otradne (Mar 28).
FPV drone strikes against personnel/hardware in Pokrovsk direction and along Kursk border (Mar 28).
Video released showing strikes (incl. thermal) in Kursk direction by "Rubicon" unit supporting infantry (Mar 28).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Operations:
Active deployment continues for counter-battery fire, reconnaissance, and strikes.
Successful FPV strike confirmed on RU armored vehicle near Dvorichna (Kupyansk area) (Mar 28).
FPV strikes reported by Presidential Brigade (4th Mech Bn) on RU infantry in Svatove direction (Mar 28).
Drone support provided by "Pryvyd Khortytsi" Bn for NGU "Kara-Dag" infantry operations (Donetsk direction, early March).
SSO "Faust" claims significant RU equipment losses via FPV drones in Kursk Oblast (Mar 26).
UA 95th Air Assault Bde drone lab testing new models.
HIMARS Strike: RU sources claim UA used HIMARS against Sudzha Gas Installation (Kursk Oblast) (Mar 28).
F-16 Operations: UA Air Force highlighted F-16 pilot interview claiming high missile hit rates (>80%) against drones/missiles; released images of F-16s with AMRAAM/Sidewinder missiles (Mar 26).
Air Defense:
RU MoD claims Pantsir-S destroyed UA attack UAV in Zaporizhzhia direction (Mar 28).
Ukrainian forces (3rd Assault Bde) employing mobile systems including Strela-10 and adapted R-73 missiles on vehicles (Mar 28).
RU claim: Shot down UA Mavic drone over RU positions (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Mar 28).
NATO ISR Activity: US RC-135V operated over Black Sea (Mar 26); US P-8A operated near Kaliningrad (Mar 26).
III. Ground Combat Operations
Overall Intensity: High intensity persists. Russian ground assault tempo remains high, reportedly exceeding 200 assaults/day recently (+17% vs Feb average, per DeepState/ASTRA). Primary focus areas: Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Kursk/Belgorod border.
Kursk/Belgorod Border Operations (RU Territory):
Fighting continues. President Zelensky stated Ukrainian presence acts as a deterrent against potential RU invasion into Sumy Oblast, acknowledging UA forces taking steps "slightly below Kursk Oblast" (potentially Belgorod/Bryansk) to reduce RU capabilities.
Active clearing of Basovka (most reportedly taken).
Ongoing assault on Vladimirovka.
Clearing operations in Guyevo; attacks near Oleshnia.
Previous claims (Mar 26): Failed UA advances near Demidovka/Popovka (Belgorod); RU clearing central Demidovka; RU forces pushed UA out of northern Guyevo; fighting elements of UA SSO, 132nd Recon Bn, 95th Air Assault Bde.
Kharkiv Direction (Kupyansk Area):
Significant Tactical Event (Mar 27, near Lozova): UA 77th Airmobile Brigade repelled a large, pre-planned Russian mechanized assault (13 armored units) north of Lozova. Assault followed heavy prep fire (Arty/MLRS/Drones/KABs). Heavy RU losses claimed (60 KIA, 28 WIA, 12 BBM, 1 Tank). Frontline reportedly unchanged. Assessed RU may revert to infantry pressure after losses.
Russian Claim (Persists): Capture of Krasne Pervoe (Pershotravneve) on the eastern Oskil river bank.
UA FPV strike confirmed on RU armored vehicle near Dvorichna.
Previous RU Claims (Mar 26): FPV drone strikes on UA infantry movements (44th AC); repulsed UA attack near Vovchansk.
Lyman Direction: Assessed as CRITICAL. Intense RU attacks persist. Terny previously assessed as almost fully Russian-occupied. RU forces using FPV drones to disrupt UA rotations (Serebryanske Forestry). RU forces reportedly advanced near Terny (DeepState, Mar 26).
Svatove Direction: Ukrainian forces (Presidential Brigade, 4th Mech Bn) actively using FPV drones against Russian infantry. RU forces reportedly advanced near Katerynivka (DeepState, Mar 26).
Siversk Direction: 7 RU attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Ivano-Darivka (UGS, Mar 26).
Kramatorsk Direction: Ongoing fighting near Chasiv Yar. UA 24th Mech Bde ("Rarog" Bn) using thermal FPV drones against RU assault groups (Mar 26).
Toretsk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. Significant RU attacks continue. 15 attacks reported near Toretsk, Dachne, Krymske, Dyliivka (UGS, Mar 26). RU forces fighting in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) and near Panteleimonivka (Rybar, Mar 28).
Pokrovsk Direction:HIGHEST INTENSITY. Primary focus of Russian offensive efforts.
53 RU attacks reported (UGS, Mar 26). Extremely difficult situation noted with RU advancing in small infantry groups (Sternenko, Mar 26).
RU MoD confirmed offensive use of UR-77 mine clearing system against a UA stronghold, claiming subsequent capture (Mar 28).
Russian FPV drone strikes claimed against UA positions.
NGU "Kara-Dag" (15 Bde) infantry, supported by "Pryvyd Khortytsi" drone battalion, captured RU POWs during failed RU assault attempts (early March, reported Mar 28). Soldier from RU 36th MRB captured, reports low morale/coercion (Butusov Plus, Mar 28).
Novopavlivsk / Vuhledar Area: 17 RU attacks repelled (UGS, Mar 26). Evidence of recent heavy combat and RU tank losses reported (Mar 28).
Huliaipole Direction: 15 RU assaults repelled (UGS, Mar 26).
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Area):
Ukrainian sources report activation of RU assault actions (Mar 28). Civilian evacuation continues (approx. 10,500 remain near contact line).
Russian Claim (MoD, Mar 28): Units of 7th Guards Air Assault Division captured Malye Shcherbaky.
RU MoD claims Pantsir-S AD activity against UA drones.
Previous RU Claims (Mar 26): Intense fighting near Lobkove, Stepove, Male Shcherbaky; near-complete control of Lobkove; occupation of southern Shcherbaky; local advances near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka. Claimed destruction of UA T-72M1 via FPV.
RU forces reportedly advanced near Dniproenerhiya area (likely Enerhodar/ZNPP) (DeepState, Mar 26).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting reported. One RU attack stopped (UGS, Mar 26). UA drone strikes claimed preventing RU river crossing (40th Coastal Defence Bde, Mar 26).
IV. Russian Activities & Claims Summary (as of Mar 28, 17:56 UTC + updates)
Offensive Focus: Pokrovsk remains highest priority. Intense pressure on Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk. Renewed mechanized push near Lozova (Kupyansk/Lyman area) repelled with heavy losses. Claimed advances near Sumy border (Veselovka, Basovka) and Zaporizhzhia (Malye Shcherbaky). Increased overall assault tempo reported.
Air/Drone Warfare: Continued large-scale drone/missile strikes targeting energy and civilian infrastructure (Poltava, Odesa claimed Mar 28). Active use of FPV drones, reconnaissance UAVs, tactical air power. Claimed HIMARS strike on Sudzha gas facility.
Logistics & Support: Significant reliance on volunteer and political party support networks for supplying troops. Suggestion floated to send confiscated e-bikes/scooters from major cities to the front.
Narrative/Info Ops: Formal accusations against UK/France (Sudzha strike); emphasis on alleged "Nazi" units/atrocities; highlighting difficulties faced by UA mobilization / alleged corruption; promoting internal support efforts and civilian returns; framing UN as ineffective/US-controlled. Disseminating footage of claimed successes (e.g., UR-77 use, Malye Shcherbaky capture). Commentary suggests "energy truce" attempt is over.
V. Updates Since 17:56 UTC, March 28, 2025
Air Activity:
UA Air Force warning for UAV threat in Sumy Oblast (17:59 UTC).
UA Air Force warning for UAV threat in Kharkiv Oblast (18:06 UTC).
UA Air Force update: UAV groups moving from Sumy/Kharkiv border towards Poltava Oblast; another group from central Sumy towards Chernihiv Oblast (18:16 UTC).
RU sources (Rybar) reported RU strikes in Poltava and Odesa during Mar 28.
RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza) claimed shooting down a UA Mavic drone (18:20 UTC).
RU source (Colonelcassad) released video of RU strikes (Kursk direction) by "Rubicon" unit (18:22 UTC).
Ground Combat:
Zaporizhzhia Direction: RU MoD claimed units of the 7th Guards Air Assault Division captured Malye Shcherbaky (18:08 UTC).
Intensity: DeepState report (via ASTRA) noted RU attacks increased 17% (Mar 1-26 vs Feb), reaching over 200 assaults/day recently, highest since start of 2025 (18:10 UTC).
Kursk Direction: RU sources (Rybar) claim RU forces conducting clearing operations in Guyevo and attacking near Oleshnia (18:20 UTC).
Toretsk Direction: RU sources (Rybar) claim RU forces fighting in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) city, near Panteleimonivka, and west near Tarasivka (18:20 UTC).
Pokrovsk Direction: Ukrainian source (Butusov Plus) released video of captured RU soldier (36th MRB) reporting low morale, coercion, high losses (18:22 UTC).
Civilian Impact / Border Crossings:
Nikopol District: Daytime attacks (arty, drones) injured two men (48yo hospitalized, 46yo treated outpatient). Damage to farm, tire shop, buildings (Vilkul, 18:26 UTC).
Kryvyi Rih District: Drone strikes hit Zelenodolsk community, damaging infrastructure; no casualties reported (Vilkul, 18:26 UTC).
RU sources (Rybar) reported return of 25 RU citizens allegedly previously evacuated/taken from Kursk Oblast by UA forces (18:20 UTC).
Strategic/Diplomatic:
Zelenskyy briefed journalists on summit outcomes, FR/UK aid, expanded intel access, and upcoming meeting on international contingent (18:09 UTC).
RU sources reiterated Zelenskyy's stance against negotiating with Putin, preference for other RU reps, Ramstein update, and intel access gains (18:16 UTC).
Internal/Info Ops:
Reports of clash near Holosiivskyi TCC in Kyiv involving "military lawyers" van; police investigating obstruction of AFU, document forgery, vehicle number tampering (Basurin, RBC-Ukraine).
RU commentary (Starshe Eddy) suggests attempt at "energy truce" is over (18:12 UTC).
