Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 28, 2025, 17:56 UTC
I. Strategic Developments
Ukrainian Command & Capabilities Enhancement:
Stavka Meeting (Mar 28): Focused on accelerating domestic drone development and production (including interceptor, reactive, and fiber-optic types), increasing supply to troops, and maximizing technological advantages. Successful intercepts of Shahed UAVs using interceptor drones were noted.
Missile Program: Emphasis on accelerating domestic missile production and establishing Ukrainian production facilities for anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs) and associated missiles.
Air Defense Localization: Ongoing negotiations with partners aim to localize the production of specific air defense systems and missiles within Ukraine. The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade is observed utilizing adapted mobile air defense systems, including Strela-10 and vehicle-mounted R-73 air-to-air missiles repurposed for ground launch.
Intelligence & Production: Confirmed expanded access to partner intelligence data (including satellite imagery) and ammunition stockpiles. Agreements secured for domestic production licenses for air defense systems; work continues on artillery production licenses.
Appointments: Andriy Hnatov officially appointed Chief of the General Staff and member of the Stavka.
International Military Cooperation & Aid:
Upcoming Meetings:
Urgent meeting confirmed in Kyiv within the week involving representatives from the general staffs of France, UK, Ukraine, and potentially other core nations prepared to consider a contingent deployment to Ukraine.
Next Ramstein format meeting scheduled for April 2025, with expectations of new defense packages.
US Aid:
President Zelensky reiterated Ukraine will not accept past US military aid as debt.
A new US draft agreement, potentially related to mineral resources, was received on Mar 28. It reportedly differs significantly from previous versions and includes previously rejected items, requiring thorough legal review by Ukraine.
President Zelensky stated the US has indicated future aid will not be provided free of charge, though terms for potential repayment for future packages may be considered.
Diplomacy & Negotiations:
Ceasefire Concepts: President Zelensky confirmed ongoing US consultations with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and European nations on potential mechanisms for monitoring an "energy ceasefire."
Negotiation Stance: Zelensky indicated potential readiness to negotiate peace terms with representatives of Russian business and opposition figures (supported by the West), rather than directly with President Putin, framing Putin's statements as unreliable ("ping pong").
UN Position: UN Secretary-General Guterres explicitly rejected recent Russian proposals for a UN temporary administration in Ukraine, affirming the UN recognizes the current Ukrainian government as legitimate.
Russian Focus & Narrative:
RU MFA formally accused UK/France of involvement (command/intel provision) in the Sudzha Gas Installation strike.
Russia continues narratives emphasizing alleged growing "nationalist/Nazi units" in Ukraine and highlighting internal Ukrainian issues (e.g., mobilization difficulties).
Significant internal efforts observed in Russia (political parties like LDPR, volunteer groups like "Dva Mayora," religious organizations) to collect funds and deliver vehicles (UAZ, Niva), drones (Mavic 3T/Pro), EW equipment, and other supplies to forces operating in Ukraine, including RCB (Chemical Defense) troops in Kursk Oblast.
Reported interview with RU 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment commander (Kurakhove direction) emphasizes small unit assault tactics and the perceived need to counter Ukrainian nationalism/local sentiment.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Russian Air/Missile/Drone Threats:
Persistent reconnaissance UAV activity noted over Kharkiv Oblast.
Continued artillery and drone attacks target rear areas, including Nikopol district and Zelenodolsk community (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), causing civilian injuries and infrastructure damage. Air raid alerts were recently active in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Massive UAV Attack (Night Mar 27/28):
UA Air Force reported attack by 163 strike UAVs (Shahed type) and imitator drones. Confirmed 89 strike UAVs shot down. 51 imitator drones "locationally lost."
RU MoD claimed interception/destruction of 78 UA UAVs over eight Russian Oblasts.
Impacts confirmed on energy infrastructure ("Naftogaz" gas production facilities) and civilian areas in multiple regions.
Kyiv Update (Past Week): Air alarms sounded 7 times. 98 strike UAVs detected near/over Kyiv; 48 destroyed. Attack on Mar 23 caused infrastructure damage (multiple districts), damage to residential buildings/warehouses, 3 civilian KIA, 10 WIA. 25 false bomb threats received via phone.
Claimed Russian Strikes (Verification Required):
Geran UAV strikes on alleged UAV workshop in Bohodukhiv (Kharkiv Oblast).
MLRS strikes (BM-21 Grad) on Ukrainian positions near Otradne.
FPV drone strikes against personnel/hardware in the Pokrovsk direction and along the Kursk border.
MoD claimed drone strike destroying a Ukrainian dugout in Kharkiv region.
Ukrainian Drone Operations:
Active deployment continues for counter-battery fire, reconnaissance, and strikes against personnel, equipment (artillery, vehicles), and positions.
Successful FPV strike confirmed on RU armored vehicle near Dvorichna (Kupyansk area) (Coordinates: 49.864383, 37.629886).
FPV strikes reported by Presidential Brigade (4th Mech Bn) on RU infantry in the Svatove direction.
FPV strikes reported by 3rd SSO Regiment ("Popryvse" group) destroying RU vehicles, personnel, and positions.
Drone support provided by "Pryvyd Khortytsi" Bn for NGU "Kara-Dag" infantry operations (Donetsk direction).
Air Defense:
RU MoD claims Pantsir-S system destroyed a UA attack UAV in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Ukrainian forces (3rd Assault Bde) employing mobile systems including Strela-10 and adapted R-73 missiles on vehicles.
III. Ground Combat Operations
Overall Intensity: High intensity combat persists, particularly focused in Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions, and along the Kursk/Belgorod border. Russian ground assault tempo remains high.
Kursk/Belgorod Border Operations (RU Territory):
Fighting continues. President Zelensky stated Ukrainian presence acts as a deterrent against potential RU invasion into Sumy Oblast, acknowledging UA forces are taking steps "slightly below Kursk Oblast" (potentially referencing Belgorod/Bryansk) to reduce RU capabilities.
RU sources report ongoing FPV ambushes targeting vehicles; volunteer groups supplying RU forces including RCB troops.
Russian Claim: Capture of Veselovka (Sumy Oblast border area); active clearing of Basovka (most reportedly taken); ongoing assault on Vladimirovka. (Group "North" reportedly involved).
Kharkiv Direction (Kupyansk Area):
Significant Tactical Event (Mar 27, near Lozova): UA 77th Airmobile Brigade successfully repelled a large, pre-planned (approx. 3 weeks prep) Russian mechanized assault involving 13 armored units north of Lozova. The assault followed heavy artillery/MLRS/drone/KAB preparation. Heavy Russian losses claimed (60 KIA, 28 WIA, 12 BBM, 1 Tank destroyed/damaged). The attack reportedly failed to shift the frontline. Unusual RU activity noted on the Zagryzove-Lozova axis recently. Assessed that RU may revert to infantry pressure after heavy equipment losses.
Russian Claim (Persists): Capture of Krasne Pervoe (Pershotravneve) on the eastern Oskil river bank, potentially enabling consolidation of RU bridgeheads.
UA FPV strike confirmed on RU armored vehicle near Dvorichna.
Lyman Direction: Assessed as CRITICAL. Intense RU attacks persist. Terny previously assessed as almost fully Russian-occupied. RU forces using FPV drones to disrupt UA rotations (Serebryanske Forestry).
Svatove Direction: Ukrainian forces (Presidential Brigade, 4th Mech Bn) actively using FPV drones against Russian infantry.
South Donetsk Front: Evidence of recent heavy combat and RU tank losses.
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Area):
Ukrainian sources report activation of RU assault actions.
Civilian evacuation continues from frontline communities (Polohivskyi, Vasylivskyi districts). Approx. 10,500 civilians remain near the contact line.
RU MoD claims Pantsir-S AD activity against UA drones.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting reported.
IV. Russian Activities & Claims Summary
Offensive Focus: Pokrovsk remains highest priority, intense pressure on Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk. Renewed mechanized push near Lozova (Kupyansk/Lyman area) resulted in heavy losses. Claimed advances near Sumy border (Veselovka, Basovka).
Air/Drone Warfare: Continued large-scale drone/missile strikes targeting energy and civilian infrastructure. Active use of FPV drones, reconnaissance UAVs, and tactical air power (Ka-52M reported near Kursk border).
Logistics & Support: Significant reliance on volunteer and political party support networks for supplying troops with vehicles, drones, EW, and basic supplies, particularly noted in Kursk Oblast.
Narrative/Information Operations: Formal accusations against UK/France (Sudzha strike); emphasis on alleged "Nazi" units in Ukraine; highlighting difficulties faced by families of missing soldiers; promoting internal support efforts; framing UN as ineffective/US-controlled. Disseminating footage of claimed successes (e.g., UR-77 use, dugout strike).
