Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 28, 2025, 17:26 UTC
I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Russian Air/Drone Threats: Persistent reconnaissance UAV activity over Kharkiv Oblast. Continued Russian artillery and drone attacks target rear areas, including Nikopol district and Zelenodolsk community (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), causing civilian injuries and infrastructure damage during the day. Air raid alerts recently active in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Claimed Russian Strikes (Verification Required):
Claimed Geran UAV strikes on an alleged UAV workshop in Bohodukhiv (Kharkiv Oblast), supported by purported reconnaissance footage.
Claimed MLRS strikes (BM-21 Grad) on Ukrainian positions near Otradne.
Claimed FPV drone strikes against Ukrainian personnel/hardware in the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) direction and along the Kursk border.
RU MoD claimed drone strike destroying a Ukrainian dugout in Kharkiv region.
Ukrainian Drone Operations: Active deployment continues for counter-battery fire correction, reconnaissance, and strikes against personnel, equipment (artillery, vehicles), and positions.
Successful FPV strike confirmed on RU armored vehicle near Dvorichna (Kupyansk area) (Coordinates: 49.864383, 37.629886).
FPV strikes reported by Presidential Brigade (4th Mech Bn) on RU infantry in the Svatove direction.
FPV strikes reported by 3rd SSO Regiment ("Popryvse" group) destroying RU vehicles, personnel, and positions.
Confirmed KIA: RU Rosgvardia Hero Maj. Marat Tibilov in the Kursk border area.
RU volunteer groups report delivering drones (incl. Mavic 3T/Pro) and supplies to RU forces, including RCB (Chemical Defense) troops operating in Kursk Oblast.
RU sources report ongoing FPV ambushes targeting vehicles in the border region.
Kharkiv Direction (Kupyansk Area):
Russian Claim (Reinforced): RU MoD claim of capturing Krasne Pervoe (Pershotravneve) on the eastern Oskil river bank is reiterated by RU milbloggers, assessing it as plausible and potentially enabling the consolidation of RU bridgeheads.
UA FPV strike confirmed on RU armored vehicle near Dvorichna.
Lyman Direction: Assessed as CRITICAL. Intense RU attacks persist. Terny previously assessed as almost fully Russian-occupied.
Svatove Direction: Ukrainian forces (Presidential Brigade) actively using FPV drones against Russian infantry.
Pokrovsk Direction:HIGHEST INTENSITY. Remains the focus of Russian offensive efforts.
RU MoD confirmed offensive use of UR-77 mine clearing system against a UA stronghold, claiming subsequent ground capture.
Russian FPV drone strikes claimed against UA positions.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): Civilian evacuation continues from frontline communities (Polohivskyi, Vasylivskyi districts). Approx. 10,500 civilians remain in close proximity to the contact line in these areas.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting.
III. Command and Strategic Developments
Ukrainian Command: President Zelensky officially appointed Andriy Hnatov as Chief of the General Staff and member of the Stavka (Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Staff).
International Military Cooperation & Aid:
Upcoming Meetings:
Urgent meeting confirmed in Kyiv within the week involving France, UK, Ukraine, and potentially other core nations "100% ready for a contingent on the territory of Ukraine."
The next Ramstein format meeting is scheduled for April 2025, where new defense packages are expected.
Intelligence & Production Agreements: Ukraine secured expanded access to intelligence data (including satellite imagery) and access to partner ammunition stockpiles from European partners. Agreements reached on licenses for domestic production of air defense systems; work continues on artillery production licenses.
US Aid Terms: President Zelensky reiterated Ukraine will not accept US military aid as debt, referencing a new US draft agreement possibly related to mineral resources. Zelensky stated the US has indicated future aid will not be provided free of charge.
Ceasefire Discussions & Negotiations:
President Zelensky confirmed US consultations with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and European nations regarding potential mechanisms for monitoring an "energy ceasefire."
Zelensky indicated potential readiness to negotiate peace terms with representatives of Russian business and opposition figures (supported by the West), rather than directly with President Putin.
UN Position: UN Secretary-General Guterres affirmed the UN recognizes the current Ukrainian government as legitimate, rejecting recent Russian proposals for UN temporary administration.
Russian Narrative & Internal Situation:
RU MFA formally accuses UK/France of involvement (command/intel provision) in the Sudzha Gas Installation strike.
Russia continues narratives emphasizing growing "nationalist/Nazi units" in Ukraine.
Appeals from relatives of missing Russian soldiers (specifically mentioning 27th Motor Rifle Brigade) highlight significant numbers unaccounted for and difficulties with identification processes (overloaded Rostov morgue, lack of hospital information).
Russian volunteer groups and political parties (LDPR) continue public efforts to supply vehicles (UAZ, Niva, etc.), drones, EW equipment, and other supplies to forces in Ukraine.
