Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 28, 2025, 17:05 UTC

I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

• Russian Air/Drone Threats: Ongoing reconnaissance UAV activity persists, particularly in Kharkiv Oblast. Air raid alerts were recently active in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
• Claimed Russian Strikes (Verification Required):
  • Claims of significant UAV strikes on a Poltava Oblast airfield, allegedly targeting ammunition depots, aircraft (Su-24s, MiG-29 repair base).
  • Claims of Geran UAV strikes on a UAV workshop in Bohodukhiv (Kharkiv Oblast), supported by alleged reconnaissance footage.
  • Claimed MLRS strikes on Ukrainian positions near Otradne.
  • Claimed FPV drone strikes against Ukrainian personnel/hardware along the Kursk border and in the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) direction.
• Ukrainian Drone Operations: Active deployment continues for counter-battery fire correction, anti-personnel/equipment strikes (artillery, vehicles, personnel), and reconnaissance. Notable operations reported by the 46th Airmobile Brigade and "Chornyi Lis" brigade.
  • Successful FPV strike claimed on RU armored vehicle near Dvorichna (Kupyansk area).
  • FPV strike reported causing secondary explosion near RU truck/personnel.
• Overnight (Mar 26-27 Recap): 42/86 Shahed-type UAVs intercepted by UA forces. Impacts confirmed in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Nikopol. 1 Iskander-M missile was not intercepted.

II. Ground Combat and Border Operations

• Overall Intensity: High tempo reported on Mar 27 (195 clashes), characterized by significant Russian air, drone, and artillery usage.
• Kursk/Belgorod Border Operations (RU Territory): Ongoing fighting reported, particularly in Kursk Oblast. RU MoD claims capture of a UA soldier near Plekhovo. RU forces previously claimed control of MAPP Sudzha and advances near surrounding villages.
• Kharkiv Direction (Kupyansk Area):
  • Russian artillery strike reported on Kupyansk city.
  • Russian Claim (Requires Confirmation): RU MoD claims liberation of Krasne Pervoe (Pershotravneve) on the eastern Oskil bank, assessed as plausible given recent activity.
  • Successful UA FPV strike claimed on RU armored vehicle near Dvorichna.
  • Previous high intensity with significant RU assaults repelled (Mar 27).
• Lyman Direction: Assessed as CRITICAL. Intense RU attacks continue (32 reported Mar 27). Terny assessed as almost fully Russian-occupied.
• Toretsk Direction: HIGH INTENSITY. Significant RU attacks reported (23 on Mar 27). Russian advances previously claimed near Panteleimonivka and other locations.
• Pokrovsk Direction: HIGHEST INTENSITY. Very high number of Russian assaults (57 reported Mar 27). RU claims use of UR-77 mine clearing vehicle offensively against a UA stronghold, followed by ground assault capture. RU sources released footage claiming destruction of UA equipment on Mar 27. UA forces previously pushed back RU forces in lower Kotlyne.
• Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): Russian assaults repelled (4 on Mar 27). Intense UA artillery fire reportedly inflicted heavy casualties on a Russian unit (based on captured soldier testimony). Civilian evacuation ongoing from frontline communities.
• Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting, no major RU offensive actions reported recently.
• Rear Area Impacts (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Continued Russian artillery and drone attacks on Nikopol district and Zelenodolsk community, causing civilian injuries and infrastructure damage.

III. Command and Strategic Developments

• Ukrainian Command Change: President Zelensky appointed Andriy Hnatov as Chief of the General Staff, adding him to the Stavka.
• International Military Cooperation:
  • Upcoming Meeting: An urgent meeting in Kyiv confirmed involving France, UK, and Ukraine regarding countries "100% ready for a contingent on the territory of Ukraine."
  • Intelligence & Production: Ukraine secured expanded access to intelligence data (including satellite) and agreements on licenses for air defense production from European partners. Work continues on artillery production licenses.
  • US Aid Terms: Ongoing discussion regarding a new US draft agreement possibly related to mineral resources; President Zelensky reiterated US military aid is not considered a loan.
  • Swedish Aid: €7 million pledged for demining and drones.
• Ceasefire Discussions:
  • President Zelensky confirmed US consultations with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and European nations regarding monitoring mechanisms for a potential "energy ceasefire."
• UN Position: UN Secretary-General Guterres affirmed the UN recognizes the current Ukrainian government as legitimate, rejecting recent Russian proposals for UN temporary administration.
• Russian Narrative: Russia continues to blame UK/France for the Sudzha GIS strike and promote narratives of growing "nationalist/Nazi units" in Ukraine.
• Russian Personnel Losses: RU Rosgvardia Hero Maj. Marat Tibilov reportedly killed in Kursk border area. Reports and appeals from families highlight issues with accounting for missing Russian soldiers.

IV. Internal Developments

• Ukrainian Defense Industry: Claims of capacity to produce 5 million FPV drones annually, with nearly half of armament at the front stated as Ukrainian-produced.
• Mobilization: Deadline for medical re-evaluation for "limitedly fit" set for June 5, 2025.
• Anti-Corruption: National Guard leaders detained in Lviv on suspicion of corruption related to service evasion.
• GUR Unit Activity: RU sources identify GUR special unit "Prymary" (Ghosts) as increasingly active, potentially expanding operations from FPV use (Sumy/Kharkiv/Kupyansk) to include Crimea.