Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 14:26 UTC
I. Strategic Overview & Key Developments
Energy Moratorium Collapse & Infrastructure:
Following the Mar 28 Sudzha GIS strike and Russia's subsequent declaration reserving the right to disregard the energy moratorium, the energy situation remains critical. Renewed, large-scale Russian strikes targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure nationwide are highly probable.
Confirmed damage to Naftogaz facilities (Mar 28) and previous strikes (Kherson, Poltava) underscore the ongoing threat.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Update: Despite temporary stability attributed to favorable weather and solar generation (sometimes surplus), authorities confirm ongoing daily damage to the grid from Russian shelling, particularly on the Left Bank. Repair efforts continue (>9,000 consumers reconnected this week). Recommendations issued to use energy-intensive appliances between 10:00-16:00. (Source: Zaporizhzhia OVA, Mar 28, 13:49 UTC).
Sumy Explosion Debate: Russian sources (Colonelcassad 13:56, Alex Parker 14:01 UTC) claim the large explosion in Sumy (Mar 24) resulted from a secondary detonation of ammunition stored by Ukrainian forces in civilian garages, ignited by a fire, rather than a direct impact causing the observed damage. This narrative aligns with claims of UA using civilian infrastructure as shields.
Overall Combat Intensity: Remains exceptionally high. 116 combat clashes reported across the front as of 16:00 local time (14:00 UTC). Russian assault actions concentrated on Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Kursk border directions. Pokrovsk direction intensity remains extremely high. (Source: UGS, Mar 28, 14:11 UTC; DeepState, Mar 28, 13:18 UTC).
Potential Russian Spring Offensive & Long-Term Intentions: President Zelenskyy's warning (Mar 27) of a potential Russian Spring offensive (possibly Sumy/Kharkiv) is reinforced by German intelligence (BND, cited by multiple sources Mar 28) suggesting Russia is preparing for potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by the end of the decade, significantly increasing military spending and aiming for 1.5 million personnel. (Source: RVvoenkor 13:38 UTC, RBC-Ukraina 14:24 UTC).
US Stance on Peace Timeline & Sanctions: US Secretary of State Rubio stated (Mar 28) there is no guaranteed timeline for a peace agreement, depending on Russia, Ukraine, and European partners. He emphasized that European sanctions must be factored into any final agreement. This walks back previous unofficial timelines suggested by the Trump administration. (Source: Tsaplienko, Dva Mayora, Mar 28, ~13:27 UTC; RBC-Ukraina, 14:05 UTC).
Repatriation/Body Exchange (Mar 28): Ukraine received 909 bodies of fallen defenders. Russia received 43 bodies of its military personnel. (Source: UA Coordination HQ; RU Milbloggers, Colonelcassad 14:13 UTC, Mobilizatsiya 14:10 UTC).
Return of Kursk Oblast Residents: Russian Ombudsman Moskalkova claimed 25 residents from the Kursk border area were returned to Russia from Ukraine (Mar 28, 13:55 UTC). Russia insists on the return of all residents taken to Sumy Oblast, claiming UA is delaying due to documentation issues (TASS, 13:59 UTC). Reports indicate 6 returned individuals require medical aid, including an 11-year-old boy (TASS, 14:21 UTC), with 6 in serious condition (TASS, 14:24 UTC).
Geopolitical Tensions: Russia emphasizes strategic partnership with Cuba (TASS, 13:28 UTC). RU Embassy UK criticizes UK/France 'coalition' efforts as attempts to derail settlement (TASS, 14:17 UTC). Reports on Iran's increased uranium enrichment and reduced breakout time for nuclear weapons, alongside rejection of US talks under pressure (WarGonzo, 14:17 UTC).
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Kharkiv)
Kursk Oblast Activity (RU Territory):
Combat: UGS reports 9 combat clashes today, with 3 ongoing (14:11 UTC). Fighting previously reported near Sudzha, Huyevo, Oleshnia, Hornal. RU claims visually corroborated control over Hoholivka and MAPP Sudzha.
Sudzha-Yunakivka Road Interdiction: Russian forces continue efforts. Video evidence (Colonelcassad, Mar 28, 13:44 UTC) claims RU drone operators destroyed 3 UA vehicles and 1 Kozak armored car on this road.
Russian Strikes: UGS reports 20 RU air strikes, 32 KABs dropped, 199 artillery shellings (incl. 11 MLRS) in the Kursk direction today (14:11 UTC).
Belgorod Oblast Activity (RU Territory):
Alleged Ukrainian Drone Strike: Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, Mar 28, 13:41 UTC) report an alleged Ukrainian drone attack targeting civilian vehicles in Golovchino (Graivoron district) around 14:30 local time. (Requires verification).
Fighting previously reported near Popovka and Demidovka areas.
Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts (UA Territory):
Russian Strikes: Continuous Russian artillery and air strikes reported on numerous border settlements in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Specific locations under fire include Oleksandrivka, Myropilske, Pokrovka, Porozok, Shalyhine, Petrushivka, Uhroidy, Krasnopillia, Prohody (Sumy); Vovchansk (Kharkiv). (Source: UGS, 14:11 UTC).
Kharkiv Direction: One combat clash reported near Vovchansk (UGS, 14:11 UTC).
III. Frontline Activity (Selected Axes - UGS Update 14:11 UTC)
Kupyansk Direction:
RU Assaults: 3 RU assaults near Zahryzove and towards Bohuslavka. 1 clash ongoing.
Previous reports (Mar 27) indicated UA repelled a significant RU assault after RU preparation, claiming high RU losses. RU claims expanded control near Novolyubivka persist.
Lyman Direction:
High Intensity. 9 RU attacks near Nadiia, Yampilivka, and towards Hrekivka, Nove, Novomykhailivka. 6 clashes ongoing.
Previous assessments indicated Terny almost fully occupied by RU forces. RU claims advance near Nove, entry into Katerynivka.
Siversk Direction:
1 RU assault ongoing near Ivano-Darivka.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):
3 RU attempts repelled near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora.
RU evacuation narrative: RU sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 14:19 UTC) claim 331st PDP evacuated civilians from Chasiv Yar, blaming UA shelling.
Toretsk Direction:
High Intensity. 17 RU attacks near Toretsk and towards Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka. 4 clashes ongoing.
Previous RU claims of tactical improvements near Druzhba, Krymske, Panteleimonivka, Aleksandropol, Tarasovka.
Pokrovsk Direction:
Highest Intensity.50 RU attacks today in areas including Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Kotliarivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, and towards Kalynove. 12 clashes ongoing.
Claimed RU Starlink Destruction: Russian sources (Voin DV, 13:30 UTC) claim 14th Spetsnaz Brigade destroyed UA Starlink terminals using UAVs. (Impacts UA C2/ISR if verified).
RU Drone Strike on UA Vehicle: RU sources (Poddubny, 14:19 UTC) claim drone strike destroyed UA pickup truck with EW antennas near Kostiantynivka, followed by strikes on dispersed infantry.
Previous RU claims of advances towards Komar, Otradne, Bogatyr; footholds in Volne Pole, Vesele, Razliv.
Huliaipole Direction:
4 RU assaults near Pryvilne. RU airstrike hit Novopil.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
5 RU attacks repelled towards Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, and N of Nesterianka.
RU airstrikes hit Kamyanske and Novoandriivka. Russian sources (NgP raZVedka, 13:51 UTC) also reported bomb strikes NW of Novoandriivka.
Previous RU MoD claim of liberating Malye Shcherbaki.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):
2 combat clashes reported.
IV. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Current Threats (As of 14:26 UTC): Ongoing threat from Russian Tactical Aviation (KAB launches) in East/NE/Sumy regions (UA Air Force, 13:56 UTC).
Energy Infrastructure Strikes: Confirmed damage to Naftogaz facilities (Mar 28). Zaporizhzhia grid sustaining damage from shelling (Mar 28). Collapse of energy moratorium increases likelihood of widespread RU strikes.
Sudzha GIS Strike (Kursk, RU): Significant damage confirmed (Mar 28 morning). Key factor cited by Russia for abandoning energy moratorium.
Alleged Ukrainian Strikes (RU Claims):
Missile strike on multi-story building in Lysychansk (Luhansk Oblast), 4 injured reported (Operatsiya Z, 13:59 UTC).
Two strikes on district hospital in Aleshki (Kherson Oblast), building damaged, no casualties reported (Operatsiya Z, 13:59 UTC).
Drone attack on civilian vehicles in Golovchino (Belgorod Oblast, RU) (Dnevnik Desantnika, 13:41 UTC). (Needs verification).
Claimed Russian Strikes:
Bomb strikes reported NW of Novoandriivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (NgP raZVedka, 13:51 UTC). Airstrikes confirmed by UGS on Kamyanske, Novoandriivka (Zaporizhzhia), Novopil (Donetsk).
Destruction of Starlink terminals claimed in South Donetsk direction (Voin DV, 13:30 UTC).
Destruction of UA pickup truck with EW antennas + infantry near Kostiantynivka direction (Poddubny, 14:19 UTC).
Drone strikes targeting UA positions in buildings (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 13:30 UTC).
Drone Warfare:
Continuous high-intensity use by both sides for ISR and strikes.
UA Claims: Signum (53rd Mech Bde) reports destroying 15 RU trucks, 3 UAZ vans, 1 tank, 1 BTR in Luhansk Oblast using FPV drones (Sternenko, 14:02 UTC). Video released showing combined arms defense (mines, drones) repelling RU assault in Kupyansk direction (RBC-Ukraina, 13:47 UTC).
RU Claims: Destruction of UA Starlink terminals (South Donetsk), UA Kozak vehicle and other vehicles (Kursk border road), UA pickup with EW (Kostiantynivka).
RU Air Defense Activity: Claimed shootdown of UAV by Pantsir-S1 near Tartus naval base, Syria (RU sources, 14:08 / 14:15 UTC).
V. Other Military-Relevant Updates
International Support:
France announced €2bn defense aid package (Paris Summit, Mar 28).
Germany provided additional €7.27 million for UA energy infrastructure repair (Mar 28).
Russian Logistics & Engineering: Russian MoD footage (Mar 28) shows Vostok Group constructing/improving roads in occupied Donetsk Oblast. Indicates efforts to improve military mobility.
Russian Personnel & Morale:
Interview with captured Russian soldier (allegedly 810th Naval Infantry Brigade) claims rapid deployment (<2 weeks), lack of training, faulty equipment, use of personnel recruited to avoid prison, quick surrender (Butusov Plus, 13:41 UTC). Anecdotal support for RU manpower/equipment issues.
Reports of makeshift vehicles ("Shaybalyot") also suggest equipment issues (Operativno ZSU, 13:51 UTC).
Strelkov Assessment: Igor Strelkov stated (Mar 27, pub. 14:18 UTC) that meaningful rotation for mobilized RU personnel is impossible without a new mobilization wave, which he believes leadership is unwilling to conduct unless forced by frontline collapse.
Russian Capabilities:
RU 33rd MSPR reportedly developed and uses 3D-printed spherical improvised explosive devices ("Kolobok") of varying sizes for assault operations, particularly in urban environments (Dva Mayora, 14:05 UTC).
Information Operations:
RU sources continue disseminating narratives of alleged Ukrainian war crimes (Lysychansk/Aleshki strikes, Sudzhansky civilian accounts) and portraying RU forces as humanitarian actors (evacuation from Chasiv Yar).
RU sources push narrative that Sumy damage resulted from secondary detonation of UA ammo stored near civilians.
North Korean Support: Previous reports confirmed NK M1989 SPGs in Crimea (Mar 26); claims of additional NK troop deployments and weapon shipments persist.
