Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 13:56 UTC
I. Strategic Overview & Key Developments
Energy Moratorium Collapse & Infrastructure:
Following the Mar 28 Sudzha GIS strike and Russia's subsequent declaration reserving the right to disregard the energy moratorium, the energy situation remains critical.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Update: Despite overall stability attributed to favorable weather and solar generation (sometimes resulting in surplus), authorities confirm ongoing daily damage to the grid from Russian shelling, particularly on the Left Bank. Repair efforts continue, with over 9,000 consumers reconnected this week, though challenges persist. (Update Source: Zaporizhzhia OVA, Mar 28, 13:49 UTC). Recommendations issued to utilize energy-intensive appliances between 10:00-16:00.
Assessment: While temporary stability exists in some regions due to conditions, the collapse of the moratorium signals a high probability of renewed, large-scale Russian strikes targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure nationwide. Confirmed damage to Naftogaz facilities (Mar 28) and previous strikes (Kherson, Poltava) underscore the ongoing threat.
Overall Combat Intensity: Remains exceptionally high, exceeding 200 daily Russian assault actions for the past three days, concentrated on Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Vremivka (South Donetsk/Novopavlivsk), and Kursk/Belgorod border directions. Pokrovsk direction intensity nears late Jan 2025 levels. (Source: DeepState, Mar 28, 13:18 UTC).
Potential Russian Spring Offensive & Long-Term Intentions: President Zelenskyy's warning (Mar 27) of a potential Russian Spring offensive (possibly targeting Sumy/Kharkiv) is reinforced by German intelligence (BND, cited by multiple sources Mar 28) suggesting Russia is preparing for potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by end of decade, significantly increasing military spending and manpower goals.
US Stance on Peace Timeline: US Secretary of State Rubio stated (Mar 28) there is no guaranteed timeline for a peace agreement, emphasizing it depends on Russia, Ukraine, and European partners. This walks back previous unofficial timelines suggested by the Trump administration. (Source: Tsaplienko, Dva Mayora, Mar 28, ~13:27 UTC).
Repatriation/Body Exchange (Mar 28): Ukraine received 909 bodies of fallen defenders. Russia received 43 bodies: 35 military personnel and 8 civilians allegedly taken from Kursk Oblast and died in captivity. (Source: UA Coordination HQ, RU Milbloggers, Mar 28). TASS later reports Moskalkova stating 25 residents from Kursk border area returned to Russia from Ukraine (Mar 28, 13:55 UTC). Note the disparity in numbers claimed by RU sources.
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Russian Advances & Territorial Control (Kursk Oblast):
RU claims visually corroborated control over Hoholivka and MAPP Sudzha. Fighting continues near Sudzha.
Sudzha-Yunakivka Road Interdiction: Russian forces continue efforts to interdict this key Ukrainian supply route. Video evidence (Colonelcassad, Mar 28, 13:44 UTC) claims RU drone operators ("Tigers" unit, Ussuriysk Brigade) destroyed 3 UA vehicles and 1 Kozak armored car on this road. This reinforces previous claims of successful interdiction impacting UA logistics in the Kursk incursion area.
Fighting ongoing near Huyevo, Oleshnia, Hornal.
Belgorod Oblast Activity:
Alleged Ukrainian Drone Strike: Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, Mar 28, 13:41 UTC) report an alleged Ukrainian drone attack targeting civilian vehicles in Golovchino (Graivoron district) around 14:30 local time. (Requires verification).
Fighting reported near Popovka and Demidovka areas continues.
Ukrainian Reports: UGS previously reported repelling numerous RU assaults in the Kursk region. Heavy RU shelling and airstrikes persist.
Russian Claimed Civilian Return: Russian Ombudsman Moskalkova claimed 25 residents from the Kursk border area were returned to Russia from Ukraine (Mar 28). This follows the exchange of bodies which included 8 civilians allegedly taken from Kursk.
III. Frontline Activity (Selected Axes)
Kupyansk Direction:
Repelled RU Assault: Ukrainian forces (OSUV Khortytsia) reported repelling a significant Russian assault on Mar 27 after ~3 weeks of RU preparation. Claimed significant Russian losses: 60 KIA, 28 WIA, 12 armored vehicles, 1 tank destroyed. (Source: RBC-Ukraina, Mar 28, 13:47 UTC). Video evidence released showing combined arms defense using mines and drones.
Intensity remains high; UGS previously reported repelling 26 assaults (Mar 28 morning). RU claims expanded control near Novolyubivka persist.
Lyman Direction:
High intensity. Significant RU effort.
RU claims advance near Nove, entry into Katerynivka. Previous claims of advances W of Mirne.
Terny: Assessed as almost fully occupied by RU forces, situation worsening, RU pressing towards Yampolivka (DeepState, Mar 27).
Velykonovosilkivske / Novopavlivka Directions (South Donetsk / Vremivka):
Claimed RU Starlink Destruction: Russian sources (Voin DV, Mar 28, 13:30 UTC) claim operators from the 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Vostok Group) destroyed Ukrainian Starlink terminals using UAVs in this direction. (Impacts UA C2/ISR if verified).
RU claims continued advances towards Komar, Otradne, Bogatyr; footholds/consolidation in Volne Pole, Vesele, Razliv. Fierce fighting near Konstantinopol, Alekseyevka-Andreevka.
Current Threats (As of 13:56 UTC): Ongoing threat from Russian Tactical Aviation (KAB launches) in East/NE.
Energy Infrastructure Strikes: Confirmed damage to Naftogaz facilities (Mar 28) and previous RU strikes on Kherson/Poltava energy objects (Mar 27-28). Zaporizhzhia grid sustaining damage from shelling despite overall stability (Mar 28).
Sudzha GIS Strike (Kursk, RU): Significant damage confirmed (Mar 28 morning). Attributed to HIMARS by Russia, denied by Ukraine. Key factor in Russia abandoning the energy moratorium.
Claimed RU Strikes: Bomb strikes reported NW of Novoandriivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Mar 28). Destruction of Starlink terminals claimed in South Donetsk direction (Mar 28). Drone strikes targeting UA positions in buildings (Mar 28).
Alleged UA Strike (Belgorod, RU): RU sources claim UA drone attack on civilian vehicles in Golovchino (Mar 28). (Needs verification).
Drone Warfare: Continuous high-intensity use by both sides for ISR and strikes. Claims of RU destroying UA Starlink terminals and UA Kozak vehicle highlight specific tactical uses. Reports of UA drone deception tactics near Pokrovsk (Mar 25).
V. Other Military-Relevant Updates
International Support:
France announced €2bn defense aid package (Paris Summit, Mar 28).
Germany provided additional €7.27 million for UA energy infrastructure repair (Mar 28).
Russian Logistics & Engineering: Russian MoD footage (Mar 28) shows Vostok Group's traffic-control battalion constructing/improving roads in occupied Donetsk Oblast using heavy equipment. Indicates efforts to improve military mobility and solidify control.
Russian Personnel & Morale: Interview with captured Russian soldier (allegedly 810th Naval Infantry Brigade) claims rapid deployment (<2 weeks after contract), lack of training, faulty equipment (broken rifle, reliance on rafts), use of personnel recruited to avoid prison sentences, and quick surrender. (Source: Butusov Plus, Mar 28, 13:41 UTC). Provides anecdotal evidence supporting assessments of RU manpower issues. Reports of makeshift vehicles ("Shaybalyot") also suggest equipment issues at lower levels (Operativno ZSU, Mar 28).
North Korean Support: Previous reports confirmed NK M1989 SPGs in Crimea (Mar 26); claims of additional NK troop deployments and weapon shipments persist.
Geopolitical: Russia emphasizes strategic partnership with Cuba during meeting between Medvedev and Cuban official (TASS, Mar 28). Russia seeks to involve North Korea and BRICS nations in potential "peace" talks framework (Sternenko, Mar 28).
