Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 13:26 UTC
I. Strategic Overview & Key Developments
Energy Moratorium Collapse:
Following significant damage to the Sudzha Gas Metering Station (GIS) in Kursk Oblast (Mar 28 morning), attributed by Russia to Ukrainian HIMARS, the Kremlin has declared Russia reserves the right not to comply with the previously reported energy infrastructure strike moratorium.
Russia accuses Ukrainian forces of violating the agreement. RU sources claim the strike destroyed the facility.
Ukraine (General Staff, UGS) officially denies striking energy objects, reiterates adherence to agreements targeting only military objectives, accuses Russia of disinformation, and points to recent Russian strikes on energy facilities in Kherson and Poltava Oblast (Mar 27-28) as Russian violations. Ukraine expects partner reactions to these Russian breaches.
Assessment: High likelihood of imminent, officially sanctioned resumption or intensification of Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Ukrainian Naftogaz confirmed damage to gas production facilities from separate strikes on Mar 28 morning.
Overall Combat Intensity: Remains high across the front, exceeding 200 daily assault actions for the past three days (highest 3-day intensity in 2025, per DeepState). Concentrations remain on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Vremivka (South Donetsk/Novopavlivsk), and Kursk/Belgorod border directions.
Potential Russian Spring Offensive: President Zelenskyy stated (Mar 27) that Russia is preparing for a new offensive in Spring, potentially targeting Sumy and Kharkiv. German intelligence (BILD) suggests Russia is preparing for potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by end of decade.
Russian Weekly Claims (Mar 22-28, RU MoD):
Claimed 7 group strikes targeting UA military infrastructure (airfields, CPs, drone facilities, depots).
Claimed significant UA losses (approx. 10,780 personnel KIA/WIA) and equipment. (High likelihood of inflation).
Repatriation/Body Exchange: Ukraine successfully returned the bodies of 909 fallen defenders (Mar 28). Recovered from Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia directions and Russian morgues. Russia received 43 bodies (35 military, 8 civilians allegedly taken from Kursk Oblast). RU sources highlight the disparity in numbers.
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Russian Advances & Territorial Control (Kursk Oblast):
Hoholivka (Gogolevka): Liberation claimed by RU MoD and visually corroborated (RU flag at MAPP Sudzha).
MAPP Sudzha: Russian flag raised over the border crossing building; claimed secured by RU VDV (51st PDP, 106th VDV Div). Geolocated imagery supports RU presence. RU forces claim >4km advance along Sudzha-Yunakivka road to the border. Fighting ongoing nearby. (Significant RU Claim/Advance)
Huyevo Area: Ongoing fighting. RU sources claim entry into Oleshnia, fighting on Huyevo outskirts. Forests E of Huyevo claimed cleared.
Oleshnia, Huyevo, Hornal: Claimed by RU sources as the last UA-controlled points in the Kursk incursion area, potentially facing operational encirclement.
Popovka Area (Belgorod Oblast): Active fighting reported. RU claims clearing operations completed after failed UA attempts Mar 26.
Demidovka Area (Belgorod Oblast): RU claims partial control, attempting to clear surrounded UA elements. Street fighting reported ongoing (Mar 27).
Ukrainian Reports: UGS reported repelling 18 RU assaults in Kursk region (Mar 27-28). Heavy RU shelling and airstrikes continue.
Mine Threat: Reports indicate Ukrainian forces conducted remote mining of the Sudzha area using AT2 anti-tank mines (German-supplied). Russian demining efforts reported underway (Mar 28).
III. Frontline Activity (Selected Axes)
Kharkiv Direction:
RU MoD claims liberation of Krasne Pershe. Map suggests advance near settlement.
UA reports 6 RU assaults repelled near Vovchansk, Fyholivka (Mar 28 morning).
Kupyansk Direction:
High intensity. Major RU effort.
RU claims expanded zone of control near Novolyubivka.
UA reports 26 RU assaults repelled (Mar 28 morning).
UA 77th Airmobile Brigade claimed repelling significant RU armored assault (13 vehicles) on Mar 27, inflicting heavy losses. Video released.
Lyman Direction:
High intensity. Major RU effort.
RU claims advance near Nove. RU sources claim entry into Katerynivka (verify). Previous RU claims of 2-3km advance W of Mirne towards Kolodyazi/Krasnyi Lyman (Mar 26-27).
UA reports 32 RU assaults repelled (Mar 28 morning).
Terny: Assessed by Ukrainian source (DeepState, Mar 27) as almost fully occupied by RU forces, situation worsening. RU pressing towards Yampolivka. (Significant UA Acknowledgement of RU Advance).
Siversk Direction:
RU claims liberation of Sribnoye (Donetsk).
UA reports 3 RU assaults repelled (Mar 28 morning).
Pokrovsk Direction:
Highest Intensity. Primary RU focus. Intensity approaching levels seen in late Jan 2025 (DeepState).
RU claims liberation of Sribnoye (Donetsk). Advancing towards Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka.
UA reports 68 RU assaults repelled (Mar 28 morning). UA SSO captured 9 RU soldiers (Mar 27).
UA Spokesperson notes RU attempts to increase attack intensity, shifting vector east of Pokrovsk.
UA drone footage (Flying Skull/3rd Int'l Legion) highlights heavy RU infantry use, significant RU losses, difficult situation. FPV drone strikes continue targeting RU personnel. Heavy drone threat reported against RU forces.
Toretsk Direction:
High intensity. Major RU effort.
RU claims improved tactical situation and advances near Druzhba, Krymske, Panteleimonivka, Aleksandropol (Rozivka area), Tarasovka. Claim clearing operations ongoing in Panteleimonivka and Aleksandropol.
UA Azov Brigade reports use of fiber-optic FPV drones resistant to EW.
Velykonovosilkivske / Novopavlivka Directions (South Donetsk / Vremivka):
RU claims continued advance, developing offensive towards Komar, Otradne, Bogatyr. Claimed foothold/consolidation in E Volne Pole, advancing towards center. Claimed entry into Vesele. Claimed consolidation in Razliv center (school area). Fierce fighting near Konstantinopol, Alekseyevka-Andreevka. UA reportedly counterattacking near Konstantinopol.
UA reports 14 RU assaults repelled (Novopavlivka, Mar 28 morning).
UA reports 9 RU assaults repelled (Huliaipole, Mar 28 morning).
UA 37th Marine Brigade drone strikes target RU personnel E of Kostyantynopil, notes RU buildup in Ulakly.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv Direction):
RU claims liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Claims of breakthrough into center of Shcherbaky (Mar 27). Claims advances in Stepove, Lobkove (Mar 23-26).
UA reports 9 RU assaults repelled near Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Kamyanske (Mar 28 morning).
Archive video from UA 65th Mech Bde shows past fighting near Robotyne.
IV. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Current Threats (As of 13:26 UTC): Russian Tactical Aviation active in East/NE, posing KAB threat. KAB launches reported towards Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy Oblasts.
Sudzha GIS Strike (Kursk, RU): Significant damage confirmed following Mar 28 morning strikes. Attributed to HIMARS by RU MoD, denied by Ukraine (UGS).
Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure Strikes: Naftogaz facilities damaged Mar 28 morning. UGS confirms RU strikes damaged energy facilities in Kherson and Poltava Oblast (Mar 27-28).
Impacts: Primarily targeted Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv. Also reports impacting Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia. 11 injured in Kharkiv city/oblast (extensive damage). 3 injured in Dnipro city (damage to enterprises, buildings). Power/comms outages in Zaporizhzhia. 1 injured in Nikopol district.
Drone Warfare: High intensity use by both sides for ISR and strikes. Heavy RU drone threat noted on Pokrovsk direction. UA actively using FPVs (Flying Skull, 25th Airborne, 77th Airmobile, 37th Marines, Azov). UA SSO "REQUIEM GROUP" claimed FPV strikes hitting multiple RU targets in Belgorod Oblast (Mar 27).
V. Other Military-Relevant Updates
International Support:
France announced €2bn defense aid package for Ukraine (Paris Summit, Mar 28).
Germany provided additional €7.27 million via KfW for repairing Ukrainian energy infrastructure (Mar 28).
Russian Readiness/Intentions: German intelligence suggests Russia preparing for potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by end of decade (BILD report cited by UA sources).
Potential Russian Manpower Issues: Reports allege wounded Russian soldiers (identified as 234th DShP) being improperly forced back to the front without adequate treatment, documents confiscated (Mar 28).
North Korean Support:
Confirmed sighting of North Korean M1989 Self-Propelled Guns in occupied Crimea (Mar 26).
Claims persist regarding deployment of additional NK soldiers (~3000) and increased weapon shipments (SRBMs, artillery, ammo) to Russia (Verification required).
Claimed Ukrainian Strike (Engels-2 Airbase, Mar 20): UA General Staff claim of destroying 96 Russian air-launched cruise missiles and fuel reserves. (Number requires verification). Corroborating details of depot hit/explosions from RU-linked sources.
Confirmed Russian Loss: Ukrainian forces (SDF South) destroyed a Russian Zoopark counter-battery radar system (Mar 26).
Training: Video released showing training activities of Ukraine's 25th Airborne Brigade.
