Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 12:56 UTC
I. Strategic Overview & Key Developments
Energy Moratorium Collapse:
Following significant damage to the Sudzha Gas Metering Station (GIS) in Kursk Oblast (Mar 28 morning), attributed by Russia to Ukrainian HIMARS (denied by Ukraine), the Kremlin (Peskov) has declared Russia reserves the right not to comply with the previously reported energy infrastructure strike moratorium.
Russia accuses Ukrainian forces of violating the agreement by striking Sudzha GIS.
Ukraine (UGS) denies striking energy objects, adheres to agreements targeting only military objectives, accuses Russia of disinformation, and points to recent Russian strikes on energy facilities in Kherson and Poltava Oblast as Russian violations.
Assessment: High likelihood of imminent, officially sanctioned resumption or intensification of Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Ukrainian Naftogaz confirms damage to gas production facilities from strikes on Mar 28 morning.
Overall Combat Intensity: Remains high across the front, particularly concentrated on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions. Significant activity continues along the Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy border region.
Russian Weekly Claims (Mar 22-28, RU MoD):
Claimed 7 group strikes targeting UA military infrastructure (airfields, CPs, drone facilities, depots).
Claimed significant UA losses (approx. 10,780 personnel KIA/WIA) and equipment destruction (incl. 2 MiG-29, 27 JDAMs, 20 HIMARS rockets, 1,160 UAVs). (High likelihood of inflation).
Potential Russian Spring Offensive: Previous reports indicated potential RU offensive preparations targeting Sumy/Kharkiv. German intelligence suggests Russia preparing for potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by end of decade (BILD).
Repatriation: Ukraine successfully returned the bodies of 909 fallen defenders recovered from multiple frontline directions and Russian morgues.
Hoholivka (Gogolevka): Liberation officially claimed by RU MoD and visually corroborated (RU flag at MAPP Sudzha). RU forces reportedly advancing towards Sumy Oblast.
MAPP Sudzha: Russian flag raised over the International Automobile Border Crossing Point building; claimed secured by RU VDV (51st PDP, 106th VDV Div). Geolocated imagery supports RU presence. Claimed >4km advance along Sudzha-Yunakivka road to border. Fighting ongoing nearby. (Significant RU Claim/Advance)
Huyevo Area: Ongoing fighting. RU claims control of forest E of Huyevo, entry into Oleshnia, fighting on Huyevo outskirts. RU MoD claims strikes on UA forces near Huyevo, Oleshnia, Hornal.
Oleshnia, Huyevo, Hornal: Claimed by RU sources as the last UA-controlled points in the Kursk incursion area, potentially facing operational encirclement (WarGonzo).
Popovka Area (Belgorod Oblast): Active fighting ("grey zone"). RU claims UA assault group destroyed. UA personnel buildup reported near Popovka/Myropilske (Sumy). Ongoing small arms battles.
Demidovka Area (Belgorod Oblast): RU claims partial control, attempting to clear surrounded UA elements. Persistent UA reserves reported.
Ukrainian Reports: UGS reported repelling 18 RU assaults in Kursk region (Mar 27-28). Heavy RU shelling and airstrikes continue.
Russian Officer Casualty: Hero of Russia, Major Marat Tibilov (Rosgvardia), confirmed KIA in Kursk Oblast (Cherkaske Porichne).
Mine Threat: Reports indicate remote mining of the Sudzha area by Ukrainian forces using AT2 anti-tank mines (German-supplied). RU demining efforts reported.
III. Frontline Activity (Selected Axes)
Kharkiv Direction:
RU claims liberation of Krasne Pershe (RU MoD weekly/daily). RU forces working to destroy UA logistics for Kupyansk group. Map suggests advance near settlement.
UA reports 6 RU assaults repelled near Vovchansk, Fyholivka (Mar 28 morning). UA denies significant RU force buildup for major Kharkiv offensive.
Kupyansk Direction:
High intensity. RU main effort.
RU claims liberation of Mirnoye (Donetsk) and Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv) (RU MoD weekly). Expanded zone of control near Novolyubivka.
UA reports 26 RU assaults repelled (Mar 28 morning).
UA 77th Airmobile Brigade claimed repelling significant RU armored assault (13 vehicles) on Mar 27, inflicting heavy losses (12 BBM, 1 tank destroyed, ~88 RU casualties). Video released.
Lyman Direction:
High intensity. RU main effort.
RU claims advance near Nove. Earlier RU claims of 2-3km advance W of Mirne towards Kolodezi/Krasnyi Lyman (Mar 26-27).
UA reports 32 RU assaults repelled (Mar 28 morning).
Terny: Assessed by UA source (DeepState, Mar 27) as almost fully occupied by RU forces, situation worsening. RU pressing Yampolivka. (Significant UA Acknowledgement of RU Advance).
Siversk Direction:
RU claims liberation of Sribnoye (Donetsk) (RU MoD weekly).
UA reports 3 RU assaults repelled (Mar 28 morning).
Pokrovsk Direction:
Highest Intensity. Primary RU focus.
RU claims liberation of Sribnoye (Donetsk) (RU MoD weekly). Advancing towards Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka; holding outskirts of Oleksiivka.
UA reports 68 RU assaults repelled (Mar 28 morning).
UA Spokesperson notes RU attempts to increase attack intensity to Jan 2025 levels, shifting vector east of Pokrovsk.
UA drone footage (Flying Skull, 3rd Int'l Legion) highlights heavy RU infantry use, significant RU losses, and difficult situation despite ceasefire talks. FPV drone strikes continue targeting RU personnel. Heavy drone threat reported against RU forces.
Toretsk Direction:
High intensity. RU main effort.
RU MoD claims improved tactical situation. Earlier RU analysis (Mar 27) claimed advances near Druzhba, Krymske, Panteleimonivka, Aleksandropol, Tarasovka, potentially threatening Konstantynivka rear. RU advance reported near Panteleimonivka (DeepState, Mar 27).
UA reports 24 RU assaults repelled (Mar 28 morning).
Velykonovosilkivske / Novopavlivka Directions:
RU MoD claims continued advance into depth of UA defenses. Success claimed near Razliv (foothold on E outskirts), consolidation in E Volne Pole, advancing towards center. Fierce fighting near Konstantinopol, Vesele, Alekseyevka-Andreevka.
UA reports 14 RU assaults repelled (Novopavlivka, Mar 28 morning).
UA reports 9 RU assaults repelled (Huliaipole, Mar 28 morning).
UA 37th Marine Brigade drone strikes target RU personnel E of Kostyantynopil, notes RU buildup in Ulakly.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv Direction):
RU claims liberation of Malye Shcherbaki (RU MoD weekly). Drone strikes near Mala Tokmachka. Earlier claims (Mar 27) of breakthrough into center of Shcherbaky.
UA reports 9 RU assaults repelled near Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Kamyanske (Mar 28 morning). Archive video from UA 65th Mech Bde shows past fighting near Robotyne.
IV. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Current Threats (As of 12:56 UTC): Tactical Aviation active in East/NE, posing KAB threat. KAB launches reported towards Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy Oblasts.
Sudzha GIS Strike (Kursk, RU): Significant damage confirmed following Mar 28 morning strikes. Attributed to HIMARS by RU MoD, denied by Ukraine (UGS).
Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure Strikes: Naftogaz facilities damaged Mar 28 morning. UGS confirms RU strikes damaged energy facilities in Kherson and Poltava Oblast (Mar 27-28).
Other Recent Strikes: RU claims 7 group strikes (Mar 22-28) on UA military targets. UA confirms warehouse damage in Poltava area (Mar 27/28). RU claims UA drone attack on Bryansk substation (Mar 28, supply unaffected). RU airstrikes reported in Kursk border area (Mar 28). UA FPV drone strikes continue across fronts (Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, Kostyantynopil).
Overnight Recap (Mar 26/27): Large RU attack (1 Iskander-M, 86 UAVs). UA intercepted 42 Shaheds. Significant damage/casualties in Dnipro, Kharkiv city/oblast, Nikopol.
Drone Warfare Intensity: High use by both sides for ISR and strikes. Reports highlight intense RU drone threat on Pokrovsk direction. UA actively using FPVs (Flying Skull, 3rd Int'l Legion, 77th Airmobile, 37th Marines).
V. Other Updates
Internal Security (Russia): FSB claims detentions for treason/smuggling/terror prevention. Report highlights ongoing desertion cases within RU forces (>14k since war start).
Potential Manpower Issues (Russia): Report alleges wounded RU soldiers from 234th DShP being improperly forced back to the front without adequate treatment, documents confiscated (Mar 28).
Logistics: Ongoing fundraising efforts by both sides for vehicles, drones, batteries. RU MoD claims destruction of numerous UA assets weekly. Confirmed sighting of North Korean M1989 SPGs in occupied Crimea (Mar 26).
International Support: France announced €2bn aid package (incl. missiles, AMX-10RC, ammo). US discussing potential deal on Ukrainian rare earth minerals. US Treasury official confirms SWIFT reconnection for Russia "on the table" depending on peace process.
Geopolitical: Reports (General SVR) suggest potential framework for US-Russia economic cooperation (Arctic, energy) post-truce, possibly to counter China. (Low confidence, speculation). EU states sanctions on Russia remain until war ends (Von der Leyen). US expects results of human rights audit in Ukraine judicial/law enforcement system. UN Humanitarian Coordinator visited Zaporizhzhia, highlighting damage and ongoing support needs.
