Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 12:26 UTC
(Incorporating updates received up to 12:26 UTC)
I. Key Developments & Strategic Overview
Overall Combat Intensity: High-intensity combat persists across the front, particularly concentrated on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions. Significant activity continues along the Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy border region.
Pokrovsk Direction Intensity: Remains primary RU focus; highest intensity. UGS reports repelling 68 RU assaults (as of 09:26 UTC). UA Spokesperson (OSUV Khortytsia, Tregubov) notes RU attempts to increase attack intensity to January 2025 levels, shifting assault vectors east of Pokrovsk (11:27 UTC). UA drone footage (Flying Skull unit) highlights heavy RU infantry use and significant losses (claimed >100 RU KIA by unit in past week) despite reported "ceasefire" talks (11:21 UTC).
Sudzha Gas Metering Station (GIS) Strike (Major Event):
Damage Confirmation: Significant damage and fire confirmed at the Sudzha GIS (Kursk Oblast, Russia) following strikes around 07:20 UTC, Mar 28. Russian MoD video shows extensive damage, claiming the facility is "factually destroyed." Gas continues to burn as of 10:38 UTC.
Conflicting Attribution: Russian MoD attributes the strike to Ukrainian HIMARS. Ukrainian officials (CPD Head Kovalenko, Naftogaz, UGS 12:23 UTC) assert Russia attacked its own facility or Ukrainian gas infrastructure, denying UA strikes on energy objects.
Energy Moratorium Collapse (Highly Significant):
Previous reports (Mar 25, Requires Verification) indicated a potential US-Russia-Ukraine agreement on avoiding energy infrastructure strikes.
Kremlin Statements (Peskov, Mar 28, ~11:40-11:59 UTC): Accused UA forces of violating the moratorium by striking RU energy objects (specifically referencing Sudzha GIS), claimed UA forces disregard Kyiv's orders, and stated Russia reserves the right not to comply with the moratorium. Peskov asserted RU forces were currently still adhering despite alleged UA actions (TASS 11:54 UTC) but explicitly stated Russia reserves the right not to comply going forward (Multiple sources incl. Dva mayora 11:59, RVvoenkor 12:03, ASTRA 12:25).
Ukrainian Position (UGS, Mar 28, 12:23 UTC): Officially stated UA Defence Forces adhere to agreements, target only military objectives, and accuse RU MoD of spreading disinformation. Highlighted recent RU strikes damaging energy facilities in Kherson and Poltava Oblast as violations by Russia. Expects partner reaction.
Implication: The explicit statements from the Kremlin signal a high likelihood of imminent, officially sanctioned resumption or intensification of Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Russian Weekly Claims (RU MoD, Mar 28, 12:00 UTC - Covering Mar 22-28):
Claimed 7 group strikes using high-precision weapons and UAVs targeting UA military airfields, training centers, CPs, drone facilities/storage, ammunition depots, and troop deployment areas.
Claimed liberation of 5 settlements over the past week: Hoholivka (Kursk Oblast), Mirnoye (Donetsk Oblast), Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv Oblast), Sribnoye (Donetsk Oblast), and Malye Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).
Claimed significant Ukrainian losses across fronts (High likelihood of inflation): Totaling approx. 10,780 personnel KIA/WIA for the week across all claimed sectors.
Claimed downing of 2 Ukrainian MiG-29 aircraft, intercepting 27 JDAM guided bombs, 20 HIMARS rockets, and 1,160 UAVs over the week.
Potential RU Spring Offensive: President Zelenskyy previously stated Russia is preparing for a new offensive in Spring, targeting Sumy and Kharkiv, possibly disrupted by UA Kursk operations (Mar 27 data). German intelligence report (BILD via Tsaplienko, 12:25 UTC) suggests Russia preparing for potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by end of decade, increasing military spending and production.
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Russian Advance Claims & Activity:
Hoholivka (Gogolevka), Kursk Oblast: Liberation officially claimed by Russian MoD (MoD 12:00 UTC, confirmed by Basurin 12:10, Kotsnews 12:07). Russian forces reportedly advancing towards Sumy Oblast following this. RU blogger (WarGonzo, 11:32 UTC) claims RU forces taking Oleshnia, Huyevo, and Hornal into operational encirclement. RU Blogger (Kotsnews 12:07) claims these three are the last UA-controlled points in the Kursk incursion area.
Sudzha MAP: RU MoD flag reportedly raised over the International Automobile Border Crossing Point "Sudzha" (Kotsnews, 12:07 UTC).
Huyevo Area (Kursk Oblast): Ongoing fighting. Russian forces claim control of forest east of Huyevo and entry into Oleshnia from the north; fighting ongoing (Voenkor Kotenok, 11:11 UTC). RU MoD claims strikes on UA forces near Huyevo, Oleshnia, Hornal (MoD 12:00 UTC). Kotsnews (12:07) reports fighting on Huyevo outskirts.
Popovka Area (Belgorod Oblast): Active fighting reported. RU sources claim a UA assault group infiltrated outskirts but was destroyed by drone strike (Starshye Eddy/Dva Mayora, 11:07/11:15 UTC). RU blogger (Dnevnik Desantnika 12:13) confirms fighting ongoing. Other reports describe continued Ukrainian personnel buildup near Popovka and Myropilske (Sumy Oblast), with RU shelling and ongoing small arms battles, designating it a "grey zone" (Dva Mayora, 11:06 UTC / 11:15 UTC).
Demidovka Area (Belgorod Oblast): Russian forces claim partial control (approx. half), attempting to clear surrounded Ukrainian elements. Persistent Ukrainian reserves reported entering the area. RU forces claim control of forest behind the settlement (Dva Mayora, 11:06 UTC / 11:15 UTC). RU blogger confirms small UA groups surrounded (Dnevnik Desantnika 12:13).
Basivka (Sumy Oblast): RU blogger (WarGonzo, 11:32 UTC) claims RU forces took control of Basivka, expanding the "sanitary zone".
RU MoD Claims (Weekly, 12:00 UTC & Daily): Claimed elimination of AFU formations in Kursk region. Claimed hitting elements of multiple Ukrainian brigades (Tank, Mech, Air Assault, Marine, TD) near Hornal, Huyevo, Oleshnia and extensive strikes across Sumy Oblast settlements (incl. Basivka, Bilovody, Varachyno, V. Rybytsia, Veselivka, Volodymyrivka, Vodolahy, Zhuravka, Zapsillya, Loknya, Mohrytsia, Novomykolaivka, Obody, Proletarske, Sadky, Yunakivka, Yablunivka) (RU MoD 12:00, Colonelcassad 11:34). Claimed total UA losses in Sever Group AoR (Kursk/Kharkiv/Belgorod directions) up to 2,190 troops, 6 tanks, 43 AFVs over week. Claimed 3 UAV CPs destroyed in Kursk region in past day (Colonelcassad 11:34).
Ukrainian Reports:
UGS (Mar 28, 09:26 UTC) claimed 18 Russian assaults repelled in Kursk region (past day).
Heavy RU artillery/air/drone strikes continue.
Russian Officer Casualty: Hero of Russia, Major Marat Tibilov (Rosgvardia Special Forces), confirmed killed in Kursk Oblast. Specific location reported as Cherkaske Porichne (Multiple RU/UA sources, TASS 11:01 UTC, Arkhangel Spetsnaza 11:29 UTC).
III. Frontline Activity (Selected Axes)
Kharkiv Direction:
RU Claim: Liberation of Krasne Pershe (RU MoD weekly report 12:00 UTC, also reported earlier 10:45 UTC). Claimed bridgehead established west of Oskil River. RU forces reported working to destroy UA logistics supporting Kupyansk group (Poddubny, 11:04 UTC, RVvoenkor 11:15 UTC).
UA Reports (OTU Kharkiv, Mar 28, 10:55 UTC):6 RU assaults repelled near Vovchansk, Fyholivka. Claimed significant RU losses in zone (past day).
UA Spokesperson (OTU Kharkiv, Mar 28, 11:05 UTC): Denied significant RU force accumulation for a major offensive on Kharkiv, stating current RU forces sufficient only for localized actions.
Kupyansk Direction (RU: Zapad Group):
High intensity. RU main effort.
RU Claims (MoD Weekly, 12:00 UTC): Liberation of Mirnoye (Donetsk) and Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv). Claimed hitting elements of numerous UA brigades (Mech, Tank, Airmobile, Mtn Assault, Assault, TD). Claimed over 1,640 UA KIA/WIA, 3 tanks, 11 AFVs, 29 guns destroyed over week. Expanded zone of control near Novolyubivka (Mar 28). Advance reported near Orlyanske (DeepState, Mar 27).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):26 RU assaults repelled.
UA Reports (77th Airmobile Brigade, Mar 28, 11:02 UTC / 12:04 UTC): Claimed repelling a significant RU assault involving 13 armored vehicles (prepared over 3 weeks) on Mar 27 (06:00-10:00). Claimed 12 BBMs and 1 tank destroyed, 60 RU KIA, 28 WIA. Emphasized ongoing readiness, mining, recon, drone use. Video released showing engagement.
Lyman Direction:
High intensity. RU main effort.
RU Claims: Advance near Nove (Mar 28).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):32 RU assaults repelled. Terny previously assessed as almost fully RU-occupied (DeepState, Mar 27).
Siversk Direction:
RU Claim (MoD Weekly, 12:00 UTC - Tsentr Group includes Siversk front): Liberation of Sribnoye (Donetsk). Claimed hitting UA brigades.
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):3 RU assaults repelled.
Kramatorsk Direction:
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):4 RU assaults repelled.
Pokrovsk (RU: Krasnoarmeysk) Direction (RU: Tsentr Group):
Remains primary RU focus; highest intensity.
RU Claims (MoD Weekly, 12:00 UTC): Liberation of Sribnoye (Donetsk). Claimed hitting elements of numerous UA brigades (Mech, Assault, Jaeger, UAV, Spec Ops, Marine, NG). Claimed over 3,355 UA KIA/WIA, 4 tanks, 26 AFVs (incl. M113, VAB) destroyed over week. Advancing towards Kotlyarivka, holding outskirts of Oleksiivka, advancing towards Bohdanivka (Mar 28). Positional fighting near Lysivka, RU positions shelled (Slivki Kapriz 11:20 UTC).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):68 RU assaults repelled.
UA Spokesperson (OSUV Khortytsia, Tregubov, 11:27 UTC): RU increasing attack intensity, attempting Jan 2025 levels. Shift in vector to east of Pokrovsk.
UA Drone Footage (Flying Skull unit, Mar 28, 11:21 UTC): Shows drone strikes targeting concentrations of RU infantry (claimed 10 hit in one strike, >7 others), emphasizing heavy RU personnel use and difficult situation. Claimed >100 RU KIA by unit in past week.
UA Drone Footage (3rd Int'l Legion, 12:13 UTC): Norwegian volunteer details using Mavic drones for recon (thermal/zoom) and dropping grenades/RPGs on RU troops hiding in buildings/holes on the front line.
Toretsk Direction (RU: Yug Group):
High intensity. RU main effort.
RU Claims (MoD Weekly, 12:00 UTC): Claimed improved tactical situation, hitting numerous UA brigades (Heavy Mech, Mech, Mot Inf, Airmobile, TD, NG). Claimed up to 2,035 UA KIA/WIA, 4 tanks, 22 AFVs (incl. M113, Bradley) destroyed over week.
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):24 RU assaults repelled.
RU advance reported near Panteleimonivka (DeepState, Mar 27).
RU Claims (MoD Weekly, 12:00 UTC): Continued advancing into depth of UA defenses. Claimed hitting elements of numerous UA brigades (Mech, Mtn Assault, Jaeger, Airmobile, Marine, TD) + Aidar Bn. Claimed over 1,015 UA KIA/WIA, 1 tank, 10 AFVs destroyed over week. Success developing near Razliv (claimed foothold on eastern outskirts); complex fighting near Vesele (heavy drone use); consolidation in eastern Volne Pole, advancing towards center (Mar 28). Claims of advances near Konstantinopol (DeepState video context, Mar 28).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC - Novopavlivka):14 RU assaults repelled.
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC - Huliaipole):9 RU assaults repelled.
UA Drone Footage (37th Marine Brigade, Mar 28, 11:07 UTC): Shows drone strikes targeting RU personnel east of Kostyantynopil. Notes continued RU attempts to enter/consolidate in Kostyantynopil, intense shelling, and RU buildup in Ulakly.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv Direction - RU: Dnepr Group):
RU Claim (MoD Weekly, 12:00 UTC): Liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Claimed hitting UA brigades (Mech, Mtn Assault, Coastal Defence). Claimed over 545 UA KIA/WIA, 2 tanks, 2 M113s destroyed over week. Drone strike destroyed UA dugout near Mala Tokmachka (Mar 28). RU forces broke through into center of Shcherbaky, advancing north (Mar 27 claim, contradicts UGS).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):9 RU assaults repelled near Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Kamyanske.
UA Reports (Mar 28, 11:04 UTC): RU soldier "Kretinin Dmitry Anatolyevich" (Callsign "13th") reportedly killed by UA drone near Robotyne. Last known contact Dec 29, 2023.
IV. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Current Threats (As of 12:26 UTC):
Tactical Aviation / KAB Threat:
Active in the East (UA AF 11:43 UTC).
Active in the NE (UA AF 12:09 UTC).
KAB launches reported towards Zaporizhzhia & Donetsk Oblasts (UA AF 12:01 UTC). Air alert lifted for Zaporizhzhia (excl. city) (Zp OVA 12:19 UTC).
KAB launches reported towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF 12:10 UTC).
Recent Strike Claims/Activity:
Sudzha GIS (Kursk, RU): Struck Mar 28 morning. Claimed by RU MoD as HIMARS strike. Significant damage confirmed. Denied by Ukraine (UGS 12:23 UTC).
Naftogaz Facilities (Ukraine): Attacked Mar 28 morning (18th attack total, 8th this year). Gas production facilities damaged, no casualties reported (Naftogaz, 11:04 UTC, 11:41 UTC).
Poltava Area: UA warehouse premises confirmed damaged overnight (Mar 27/28). RU video purports to show strike aftermath (Colonelcassad, 11:14 UTC). UGS confirms RU strike damaged energy facility in Poltava Oblast (12:23 UTC).
Zarya (Bryansk Oblast, RU): Governor claims UA drone attack on electrical substation; energy supply not disrupted (ASTRA, 11:41 UTC).
RU Weekly Strikes (MoD 12:00 UTC): 7 group strikes claimed on UA airfields, training centers, CPs, drone facilities, depots, troop areas (Mar 22-28).
RU Airstrikes (Kursk Border): Su-34 accompanied by Su-35S reportedly struck UA strongpoint and personnel in Kursk border area with bombs (TASS/MoD video 12:15 UTC).
RU Drone Strike (Popovka, Belgorod): Claimed destruction of UA assault group taking cover in building (Starshye Eddy/Dva Mayora, 11:07/11:15 UTC).
RU Air Strike (NAR): Claimed destruction of UA field ammunition depot via air-launched unguided rocket (NAR), causing detonation (Dva Mayora, Mar 28).
UA Drone Strikes (Pokrovsk): Video shows UA 'Flying Skull' unit striking RU infantry concentrations (Sternenko, 11:21 UTC). Video from 3rd Int'l Legion shows Mavic strikes (Tsaplienko 12:13 UTC).
UA Drone Strikes (Kostyantynopil): Video shows UA 37th Marine Brigade striking RU infantry (DeepState, 11:07 UTC).
UA Drone Strikes (Kupyansk): Video shows UA 77th Airmobile Brigade striking RU armor/personnel during repelled assault (UA DShV, 11:02 UTC, Operativnyi ZSU 12:04 UTC).
Overnight Shahed Attack (Mar 27/28 Recap): Ukraine reported intercepting 89 out of 163 launched Russian UAVs.
V. Other Noteworthy Information
Repatriation of Fallen Soldiers (UA Coordination HQ 12:21): Ukraine returned the bodies of 909 fallen defenders. Bodies recovered from Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia directions and morgues within Russia. Coordinated effort involving multiple UA agencies and assisted by ICRC.
Internal Security (Ukraine):
Kyiv TCC Incident Clarification (RBK-Ukraine 11:58): Kyiv Police confirm checking a suspicious vehicle parked near Holosiivskyi TCC after report to 102 line. No dangerous items found, driver interviewed. Clarifies earlier reports of a police cordon around the TCC (Tsaplienko 11:38, Chef Hayabusa 11:46, Operativnyi ZSU 11:51).
Chernihiv resident sentenced to 15 years for treason (UA Prosecutor General, 11:00 UTC).
Deputy Found Dead (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Oleksandr Plakhotnik (Batkivshchyna) found with gunshot wound (RBC-Ukraine, 11:39 UTC).
UOC-MP Departure (Bila Tserkva): Reports indicate UOC-MP representatives vacated another church premises, removing items including doors and flooring (Operativnyi ZSU 12:02 UTC).
Internal Security (Russia):
FSB claims prevention of terror attack in Moscow (Mar 28).
FSB claims detention of two entrepreneurs in Belgorod Oblast attempting smuggling (TASS, 11:23 UTC).
FSB claims detention of St. Petersburg resident for treason (Dva Mayora 11:09 UTC).
Desertion Case (Karelia): Ukrainian-born man mobilized into "DNR" forces (later integrated into RU army) sentenced to 7 years for desertion after leaving unit in Mar 2023 and moving to Karelia (Sever.Realii 12:01 UTC). Highlights ongoing issue of desertion cases (>10k in 2024, >14k since war start per Mediazona).
Logistics/Equipment:
RU MoD weekly report claims destruction of numerous UA vehicles, artillery, EW stations across fronts (MoD 12:00 UTC).
UA drone unit "Kondor" fundraising for vehicles (RBC-Ukraine, 11:14 UTC).
RU Airborne units fundraising for Mavic 3 batteries (Dnevnik Desantnika, 11:05 UTC). RU volunteer group fundraising for 35 off-road vehicles (Colonelcassad 12:06 UTC). Another RU group fundraising for Belgorod sector (Arkhangel Spetsnaza 12:02 UTC).
RU sources report capture of German BrLgPz M48 bridgelayer near Honcharivka, Kursk Oblast (Mar 27).
