Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 11:56 UTC
(Incorporating updates received up to 11:56 UTC)
I. Key Developments & Strategic Overview
Overall Combat Intensity: High-intensity combat persists across the front, particularly concentrated on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions. Significant activity continues along the Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy border region.
Pokrovsk Direction Intensity: Remains primary RU focus; highest intensity. UGS reports repelling 68 RU assaults (as of 09:26 UTC). UA Spokesperson (OSUV Khortytsia, Tregubov) notes RU attempts to increase attack intensity to January 2025 levels, shifting assault vectors east of Pokrovsk (11:27 UTC). UA drone footage (Flying Skull unit) highlights heavy RU infantry use and significant losses (claimed >100 RU KIA by unit in past week) despite reported "ceasefire" talks (11:21 UTC).
Sudzha Gas Metering Station (GIS) Strike (Major Event):
Damage Confirmation: Significant damage and fire confirmed at the Sudzha GIS (Kursk Oblast, Russia) following strikes around 07:20 UTC, Mar 28. Russian MoD video shows extensive damage, claiming the facility is "factually destroyed." Gas continues to burn as of 10:38 UTC.
Conflicting Attribution: Russian MoD attributes the strike to Ukrainian HIMARS. Ukrainian officials (CPD Head Kovalenko) and Naftogaz assert Russia attacked its own facility or Ukrainian gas infrastructure.
Related Ukrainian Infrastructure Attack: Naftogaz confirmed the 18th attack (8th this year) on its facilities on Mar 28, damaging gas production capabilities but causing no casualties. This aligns with Ukrainian claims that Russia is targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure (11:04 UTC, 11:41 UTC).
Previous reports (Mar 25, Requires Verification) indicated a potential US-Russia-Ukraine agreement on safe navigation in the Black Sea and avoidance of energy infrastructure strikes.
Recent Strikes (Sudzha GIS, Naftogaz): Cast significant doubt on the energy infrastructure aspect.
Russian Statements (Peskov, Mar 28, ~11:40-11:52 UTC): Accused UA forces of violating the moratorium by striking RU energy objects, claimed UA forces disregard Kyiv's orders, and stated Russia reserves the right not to comply with the moratorium. Peskov further stated RU forces are currently still adhering to it despite alleged UA actions. These statements strongly suggest imminent, officially sanctioned resumption or intensification of Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Russian Weekly Claims (RU MoD, Mar 28):
Claimed liberation of 5 settlements over the past week, including Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv Oblast) and Hoholivka (Kursk Oblast) reported today.
Claimed 7 group strikes targeting Ukrainian military airfields, training centers, and ammunition depots over the week (11:08 UTC).
Claimed significant Ukrainian losses across fronts (High likelihood of inflation). RU MoD claims >320 UA KIA/WIA, 5 BBMs, 6 vehicles, 2 artillery, 2 ATVs, 1 EW station, 3 UAV CPs destroyed in Kursk Oblast alone in past day (11:34 UTC).
Claimed downing of 2 Ukrainian MiG-29 aircraft.
Potential RU Spring Offensive: President Zelenskyy previously stated Russia is preparing for a new offensive in Spring, targeting Sumy and Kharkiv, possibly disrupted by UA Kursk operations (Mar 27 data).
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Russian Advance Claims & Activity:
Hoholivka (Gogolevka), Kursk Oblast: Liberation officially claimed by Russian MoD (Mar 28, 10:10 UTC). Russian forces reportedly advancing towards Sumy Oblast following this. RU blogger (WarGonzo, 11:32 UTC) claims RU forces taking Oleshnia, Huyevo, and Hornal into operational encirclement after Hoholivka capture.
Huyevo Area (Kursk Oblast): Ongoing fighting. Russian forces claim control of forest east of Huyevo and entry into Oleshnia from the north; fighting ongoing (Voenkor Kotenok, 11:11 UTC). RU MoD claims strikes on UA forces near Huyevo, Oleshnia, Hornal (11:34 UTC).
Popovka Area (Belgorod Oblast): Active fighting reported. RU sources claim a UA assault group infiltrated outskirts but was destroyed by drone strike (Starshye Eddy/Dva Mayora, 11:07/11:15 UTC). Other reports describe continued Ukrainian personnel buildup near Popovka and Myropilske (Sumy Oblast), with RU shelling and ongoing small arms battles within Popovka, designating it a "grey zone" with fluctuating control (Dva Mayora, 11:06 UTC / 11:15 UTC).
Demidovka Area (Belgorod Oblast): Russian forces claim partial control (approx. half), attempting to clear surrounded Ukrainian elements. Persistent Ukrainian reserves reported entering the area. RU forces claim control of forest behind the settlement (Dva Mayora, 11:06 UTC / 11:15 UTC).
Basivka (Sumy Oblast): RU blogger (WarGonzo, 11:32 UTC) claims RU forces took control of Basivka, expanding the "sanitary zone".
RU MoD Claims: Strikes on elements of multiple Ukrainian brigades near Honal, Huyevo, Oleshnia and extensive strikes across Sumy Oblast settlements (incl. Basivka, Bilovody, Varachyno, V. Rybytsia, Veselivka, Volodymyrivka, Vodolahy, Zhuravka, Zapsillya, Loknya, Mohrytsia, Novomykolaivka, Obody, Proletarske, Sadky, Yunakivka, Yablunivka) (11:34 UTC).
Ukrainian Reports:
UGS (Mar 28, 09:26 UTC) claimed 18 Russian assaults repelled in Kursk region (past day).
Heavy RU artillery/air/drone strikes continue.
Russian Officer Casualty: Hero of Russia, Major Marat Tibilov (Rosgvardia Special Forces), confirmed killed in Kursk Oblast. Specific location reported as Cherkaske Porichne (Multiple RU/UA sources, TASS 11:01 UTC, Arkhangel Spetsnaza 11:29 UTC).
III. Frontline Activity (Selected Axes)
Kharkiv Direction:
RU Claim: Liberation of Krasne Pershe (RU MoD, 10:45 UTC, confirmed by multiple RU sources 10:58-11:15 UTC). Claimed bridgehead established west of Oskil River. RU forces reported working to destroy UA logistics supporting Kupyansk group (Poddubny, 11:04 UTC, RVvoenkor 11:15 UTC).
UA Reports (OTU Kharkiv, Mar 28, 10:55 UTC):6 RU assaults repelled near Vovchansk, Fyholivka. Claimed significant RU losses in zone (past day).
UA Spokesperson (OTU Kharkiv, Mar 28, 11:05 UTC): Denied significant RU force accumulation for a major offensive on Kharkiv, stating current RU forces sufficient only for localized actions.
Kupyansk Direction:
High intensity. RU main effort.
RU Claims: Expanded zone of control near Novolyubivka (Mar 28). Advance reported near Orlyanske (DeepState, Mar 27).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):26 RU assaults repelled.
UA Reports (77th Airmobile Brigade, Mar 28, 11:02 UTC): Claimed repelling a significant RU assault involving 16 armored vehicles (prepared over 3 weeks). Claimed 12 BBMs and 1 tank destroyed, 60 RU KIA, 28 WIA. Emphasized ongoing readiness, mining, recon, drone use.
Lyman Direction:
High intensity. RU main effort.
RU Claims: Advance near Nove (Mar 28).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):32 RU assaults repelled. Terny previously assessed as almost fully RU-occupied (DeepState, Mar 27).
Pokrovsk (RU: Krasnoarmeysk) Direction:
Remains primary RU focus; highest intensity.
RU Claims: Advancing towards Kotlyarivka, holding outskirts of Oleksiivka, advancing towards Bohdanivka (Mar 28). Positional fighting near Lysivka, RU positions shelled (Slivki Kapriz 11:20 UTC).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):68 RU assaults repelled.
UA Spokesperson (OSUV Khortytsia, Tregubov, 11:27 UTC): RU increasing attack intensity, attempting Jan 2025 levels. Shift in vector to east of Pokrovsk.
UA Drone Footage (Flying Skull unit, Mar 28, 11:21 UTC): Shows drone strikes targeting concentrations of RU infantry (claimed 10 hit in one strike, >7 others), emphasizing heavy RU personnel use and difficult situation. Claimed >100 RU KIA by unit in past week.
Toretsk Direction:
High intensity. RU main effort.
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):24 RU assaults repelled.
RU advance reported near Panteleimonivka (DeepState, Mar 27).
Velykonovosilkivske / Novopavlivka Directions:
RU Claims: Success developing near Razliv (claimed foothold on eastern outskirts); complex fighting near Vesele (heavy drone use); consolidation in eastern Volne Pole, advancing towards center (Mar 28). Claims of advances near Konstantinopol (DeepState video context, Mar 28).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC - Novopavlivka):14 RU assaults repelled.
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC - Huliaipole):9 RU assaults repelled.
UA Drone Footage (37th Marine Brigade, Mar 28, 11:07 UTC): Shows drone strikes targeting RU personnel east of Kostyantynopil. Notes continued RU attempts to enter/consolidate in Kostyantynopil, intense shelling, and RU buildup in Ulakly.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv Direction):
RU Claim: Drone strike destroyed UA dugout near Mala Tokmachka (Mar 28). RU forces broke through into center of Shcherbaky, advancing north (Mar 27 claim, contradicts UGS).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):9 RU assaults repelled near Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Kamyanske.
UA Reports (Mar 28, 11:04 UTC): RU soldier "Kretinin Dmitry Anatolyevich" (Callsign "13th") reportedly killed by UA drone near Robotyne. Last known contact Dec 29, 2023.
Other Directions (UGS - repelled assaults as of 09:26 UTC report): Kramatorsk (4), Sieversk (3).
IV. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Current Threats (As of ~11:56 UTC):
Tactical Aviation / KAB Threat: Active in the East. Threat for frontline regions (UA Air Force, 11:43 UTC).
Shahed Threat: Persisted from earlier launches; status unclear but potential impact remains for southern/central regions.
Recent Strike Claims/Activity:
Sudzha GIS (Kursk, RU): Struck Mar 28 morning. Claimed by RU MoD as HIMARS strike. Significant damage confirmed.
Naftogaz Facilities (Ukraine): Attacked Mar 28 morning (18th attack total, 8th this year). Gas production facilities damaged, no casualties reported (Naftogaz, 11:04 UTC, 11:41 UTC).
Poltava Area: UA warehouse premises confirmed damaged overnight (Mar 27/28). RU video purports to show strike aftermath (Colonelcassad, 11:14 UTC).
Zarya (Bryansk Oblast, RU): Governor claims UA drone attack on electrical substation; energy supply not disrupted (ASTRA, 11:41 UTC).
RU Weekly Strikes: 7 group strikes claimed by RU MoD on UA airfields, training centers, depots (Mar 22-28) (11:08 UTC).
RU Drone Strike (Popovka, Belgorod): Claimed destruction of UA assault group taking cover in building (Starshye Eddy/Dva Mayora, 11:07/11:15 UTC).
RU Air Strike (NAR): Claimed destruction of UA field ammunition depot via air-launched unguided rocket (NAR), causing detonation (Dva Mayora, Mar 28).
UA Drone Strikes (Pokrovsk): Video shows UA 'Flying Skull' unit striking RU infantry concentrations (Sternenko, 11:21 UTC).
UA Drone Strikes (Kostyantynopil): Video shows UA 37th Marine Brigade striking RU infantry (DeepState, 11:07 UTC).
UA Drone Strikes (Kupyansk): Video shows UA 77th Airmobile Brigade striking RU armor/personnel during repelled assault (UA DShV, 11:02 UTC).
Overnight Shahed Attack (Mar 27/28 Recap): Ukraine reported intercepting 89 out of 163 launched Russian UAVs.
V. Other Noteworthy Information
Internal Security (Ukraine):
Chernihiv resident sentenced to 15 years for treason; allegedly collected/transmitted info on UA troop locations, conducted arson attacks on military vehicles, and planned further attacks/agent network creation for RU GRU (UA Prosecutor General, 11:00 UTC, Operativnyi ZSU 11:07 UTC).
Police activity near Holosiivskyi TCC (Kyiv): Reports of police cordoning off the area (Tsaplienko 11:38 UTC, Chef Hayabusa 11:46 UTC). Clarified by sources (RBC-Ukraine, Operativnyi ZSU 11:46/11:51 UTC) as police checks on vehicles and individuals in the vicinity, not a cordon of the TCC itself.
Deputy Found Dead (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Body of Oleksandr Plakhotnik (Batkivshchyna party deputy) found with gunshot wound to the head in Kamyanskyi district (RBC-Ukraine, 11:39 UTC). Investigation ongoing.
Internal Security (Russia):
FSB claims prevention of terror attack in Moscow administrative building; detained individual allegedly recruited by UA services (Mar 28).
FSB claims detention of two entrepreneurs in Belgorod Oblast attempting to smuggle "military-purpose products" across border (TASS, 11:23 UTC).
FSB claims detention of St. Petersburg resident for treason; accused of administering pro-UA resources and providing financial aid (via GUR contact) to UA forces (Dva Mayora 11:09 UTC, Kotsnews 11:19 UTC).
Logistics/Equipment:
UA drone unit "Kondor" (National Guard "Burevii" Brigade) crowdfunding for two Land Rover Defender vehicles for pilot transport/medevac (RBC-Ukraine, 11:14 UTC).
RU Airborne units crowdfunding for Mavic 3 batteries (Dnevnik Desantnika, 11:05 UTC).
RU sources report capture of German BrLgPz M48 bridgelayer near Honcharivka, Kursk Oblast (Mar 27).
New US Drone Tech (RU Report): RU source highlights first flight of Cummings Aerospace Hellhound S3 drone, noting 3D printed turboprop, high speed (>610 km/h), portability, modular payload (warheads, EW, sensors) (Dnevnik Desantnika, 11:39 UTC).
Personnel/Casualties:
RU Major Marat Tibilov (Hero of Russia) KIA confirmed in Kursk Oblast (Multiple RU/UA sources, TASS 11:01 UTC, Arkhangel Spetsnaza 11:29 UTC).
RU soldier Dmitry Kretinin KIA confirmed near Robotyne (Butusov Plus, 11:04 UTC).
RU soldier Alexander Kovalev missing since Jan 31, 2025; case highlights alleged mistreatment, forced contract, return to frontline despite severe injuries (ASTRA report, 11:12 UTC).
Man dies in hospital from severe burns sustained during Mar 20 Kropyvnytskyi shelling (RBC-Ukraine, 11:03 UTC).
Diplomacy/Politics:
Russia-US/Ukraine Talks: US SecState Rubio states it's too early for high-level talks with Russia, focus on technical level first. Notes lack of communication for years. Consultations planned on recent Saudi Arabia meetings (RVvoenkor, 11:38 UTC). Peskov denies Putin-Trump discussed external governance for Ukraine (TASS, 11:40 UTC).
Energy Moratorium Collapse: Peskov officially states Russia reserves right to disregard energy strike moratorium, blaming alleged UA violations (Multiple sources ~11:40-11:53 UTC).
Russia-Asia Pacific: Putin holds Security Council meeting focused on relations with Asia-Pacific countries (TASS, 11:53 UTC).
Zaporizhzhia-Pennsylvania Partnership: Zaporizhzhia OVA Head Fedorov holds online meeting with Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro discussing military aid, civilian support, infrastructure restoration (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 11:36 UTC).
UA Ambassador to Norway: To be appointed soon (UA MFA via RBC-Ukraine, 11:23 UTC).
Dnipropetrovsk-US Aid: Dnipropetrovsk OVA holds online meeting with US partners (Hearing Heals International) regarding restarting provision of hearing aids for children (Lysak/Dnipropetrovsk OVA, 11:35 UTC).
Infrastructure (Russia): Bryansk Oblast Governor reports ongoing capital repairs on 3 bridges (incl. rail overpass in Unecha), part of national project (AV Bogomaz, 11:32 UTC).
