Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 11:26 UTC
I. Key Developments & Strategic Overview
Overall Combat Intensity: High-intensity combat persists across the front, particularly concentrated on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions. Significant activity continues along the Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy border region.
Sudzha Gas Metering Station (GIS) Strike (Major Event):
Damage Confirmation: Significant damage and fire confirmed at the Sudzha GIS (Kursk Oblast, Russia) following strikes around 07:20 UTC, Mar 28. Russian MoD video shows extensive damage, claiming the facility is "factually destroyed." Gas continues to burn as of 10:38 UTC.
Conflicting Attribution: Russian MoD attributes the strike to Ukrainian HIMARS. Ukrainian officials (CPD Head Kovalenko) and Naftogaz assert Russia attacked its own facility or Ukrainian gas infrastructure.
Related Ukrainian Infrastructure Attack: Naftogaz confirmed the 18th attack (8th this year) on its facilities on Mar 28, damaging gas production capabilities but causing no casualties. This aligns with Ukrainian claims that Russia is targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Russian Weekly Claims (RU MoD, Mar 28):
Claimed liberation of 5 settlements over the past week, including Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv Oblast) and Hoholivka (Kursk Oblast) reported today.
Claimed 7 group strikes targeting Ukrainian military airfields, training centers, and ammunition depots over the week.
Claimed significant Ukrainian losses across fronts (High likelihood of inflation).
Claimed downing of 2 Ukrainian MiG-29 aircraft.
Reported Agreement (Mar 25, Requires Verification & Monitoring): Previous reports indicated a potential US-Russia-Ukraine agreement on safe navigation in the Black Sea and avoidance of energy infrastructure strikes. Recent strikes on Sudzha GIS and Naftogaz facilities cast doubt on the energy infrastructure aspect. Ukrainian sources previously claimed limitations on Russian Navy movement outside the Eastern Black Sea.
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Russian Advance Claims & Activity:
Hoholivka (Gogolevka), Kursk Oblast: Liberation officially claimed by Russian MoD (Mar 28, 10:10 UTC). Russian forces reportedly advanced towards Sumy Oblast following this.
Huyevo Area (Kursk Oblast): Ongoing fighting reported. Russian forces claim control of the northern part and advances near the Sudzha border crossing. Russian MoD claims control of forest east of Huyevo and entry into Oleshnia from the north; fighting ongoing (Voenkor Kotenok, 11:11 UTC).
Popovka Area (Belgorod Oblast): Active fighting reported. Russian sources claim a Ukrainian assault group infiltrated outskirts but was destroyed by drone strike (Mar 28). Other reports describe continued Ukrainian personnel buildup near Popovka and Myropilske (Sumy Oblast), with RU shelling and ongoing small arms battles within Popovka, designating it a "grey zone" (Dva Mayora, 11:06 UTC).
Demidovka Area (Belgorod Oblast): Russian forces claim partial control, attempting to clear surrounded Ukrainian elements. Persistent Ukrainian reserves reported entering the area (Dva Mayora, 11:06 UTC).
Russian Strikes: RU MoD claims strikes on elements of multiple Ukrainian brigades near Honal, Huyevo, Oleshnia and extensive strikes across Sumy Oblast settlements. Claimed missile strike near Oleshnia (Mar 27).
Ukrainian Reports:
UGS (Mar 28, 09:26 UTC) claimed 18 Russian assaults repelled in Kursk region (past day).
Heavy RU artillery/air/drone strikes continue.
Russian Officer Casualty: Hero of Russia, Major Marat Tibilov (Rosgvardia Special Forces), confirmed killed in Kursk Oblast (Multiple RU/UA sources, Mar 28). Specific location reported as Cherkaske Porichne (TASS, 11:01 UTC).
III. Frontline Activity (Selected Axes)
Kharkiv Direction:
RU Claim: Liberation of Krasne Pershe (RU MoD, Mar 28, 10:45 UTC, confirmed by multiple RU sources 10:58-11:15 UTC). Claimed bridgehead established west of Oskil River. RU forces reported working to destroy UA logistics supporting Kupyansk group (Poddubny, 11:04 UTC).
UA Reports (OTU Kharkiv, Mar 28, 10:55 UTC):6 RU assaults repelled near Vovchansk, Fyholivka. Claimed significant RU losses in zone (past day).
UA Spokesperson (OTU Kharkiv, Mar 28, 11:05 UTC): Denied significant RU force accumulation for a major offensive on Kharkiv, stating current RU forces sufficient only for localized actions.
Kupyansk Direction:
High intensity. RU main effort.
RU Claims: Expanded zone of control near Novolyubivka (Mar 28). Advance reported near Orlyanske (DeepState, Mar 27).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):26 RU assaults repelled.
UA Reports (77th Airmobile Brigade, Mar 28, 11:02 UTC): Claimed repelling a significant RU assault involving 16 armored vehicles (prepared over 3 weeks). Claimed 12 BBMs and 1 tank destroyed, 60 RU KIA, 28 WIA. Emphasized ongoing readiness, mining, recon, drone use.
Lyman Direction:
High intensity. RU main effort.
RU Claims: Advance near Nove (Mar 28).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):32 RU assaults repelled. Terny previously assessed as almost fully RU-occupied (DeepState, Mar 27).
Pokrovsk (RU: Krasnoarmeysk) Direction:
Remains primary RU focus; highest intensity.
RU Claims: Advancing towards Kotlyarivka, holding outskirts of Oleksiivka, advancing towards Bohdanivka (Mar 28).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):68 RU assaults repelled.
UA Drone Footage (Flying Skull unit, Mar 28, 11:21 UTC): Shows drone strikes targeting concentrations of RU infantry (claimed 10 hit in one strike, >7 others), emphasizing heavy RU personnel use and difficult situation despite reported "ceasefire" talks. Claimed >100 RU KIA by unit in past week.
Toretsk Direction:
High intensity. RU main effort.
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):24 RU assaults repelled.
RU advance reported near Panteleimonivka (DeepState, Mar 27).
Velykonovosilkivske / Novopavlivka Directions:
RU Claims: Success developing near Razliv (claimed foothold on eastern outskirts); complex fighting near Vesele (heavy drone use); consolidation in eastern Volne Pole, advancing towards center (Mar 28). Claims of advances near Konstantinopol (DeepState video context, Mar 28).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC - Novopavlivka):14 RU assaults repelled.
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC - Huliaipole):9 RU assaults repelled.
UA Drone Footage (37th Marine Brigade, Mar 28, 11:07 UTC): Shows drone strikes targeting RU personnel east of Kostyantynopil. Notes continued RU attempts to enter/consolidate in Kostyantynopil, intense shelling, and RU buildup in Ulakly.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv Direction):
RU Claim: Drone strike destroyed UA dugout near Mala Tokmachka (Mar 28). RU forces broke through into center of Shcherbaky, advancing north (Mar 27 claim, contradicts UGS).
UA Reports (UGS, Mar 28, 09:26 UTC):9 RU assaults repelled near Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Kamyanske.
UA Reports (Mar 28, 11:04 UTC): RU soldier "Kretinin Dmitry Anatolyevich" (Callsign "13th") reportedly killed by UA drone near Robotyne. Last contact Dec 29, 2023.
Other Directions (UGS - repelled assaults as of 09:26 UTC report): Kramatorsk (4), Sieversk (3).
Tactical Aviation / KAB Threat: Persists for frontline regions.
Recent Strike Claims/Activity:
Sudzha GIS (Kursk, RU): Struck Mar 28 morning. Claimed by RU MoD as HIMARS strike. Significant damage confirmed.
Naftogaz Facilities (Ukraine): Attacked Mar 28 morning (18th attack total, 8th this year). Gas production facilities damaged, no casualties reported (Naftogaz).
Poltava Area: UA warehouse premises confirmed damaged overnight (Mar 27/28). RU video purports to show strike aftermath (Colonelcassad, 11:14 UTC).
RU Weekly Strikes: 7 group strikes claimed by RU MoD on UA airfields, training centers, depots (Mar 22-28).
RU Drone Strike (Popovka, Belgorod): Claimed destruction of UA assault group taking cover in building (Mar 28).
RU Air Strike (NAR): Claimed destruction of UA field ammunition depot via air-launched unguided rocket (NAR), causing detonation (Dva Mayora, Mar 28).
UA Drone Strikes (Pokrovsk): Video shows UA 'Flying Skull' unit striking RU infantry concentrations (Mar 28).
UA Drone Strikes (Kostyantynopil): Video shows UA 37th Marine Brigade striking RU infantry (Mar 28).
UA Drone Strikes (Kupyansk): Video shows UA 77th Airmobile Brigade striking RU armor/personnel during repelled assault (Mar 28).
Overnight Shahed Attack (Mar 27/28 Recap): Ukraine reported intercepting 89 out of 163 launched Russian UAVs.
V. Other Noteworthy Information
Internal Security (Ukraine): Chernihiv resident sentenced to 15 years for treason; allegedly collected/transmitted info on UA troop locations, conducted arson attacks on military vehicles, and planned further attacks/agent network creation for RU GRU (UA Prosecutor General, Mar 28).
Internal Security (Russia):
FSB claims prevention of terror attack in Moscow administrative building; detained individual allegedly recruited by UA services (Mar 28).
FSB claims detention of two entrepreneurs in Belgorod Oblast attempting to smuggle "military-purpose products" across border (Mar 28).
FSB claims detention of St. Petersburg resident for treason; accused of administering pro-UA resources and providing financial aid (via GUR contact) to UA forces (Mar 28).
Logistics/Equipment:
UA drone unit "Kondor" (National Guard "Burevii" Brigade) crowdfunding for two Land Rover Defender vehicles for pilot transport/medevac (Mar 28).
RU Airborne units crowdfunding for Mavic 3 batteries (Mar 28).
RU sources report capture of German BrLgPz M48 bridgelayer near Honcharivka, Kursk Oblast (Mar 27).
Personnel/Casualties:
RU Major Marat Tibilov (Hero of Russia) KIA confirmed in Kursk Oblast (Mar 28).
RU soldier Dmitry Kretinin KIA confirmed near Robotyne (Mar 28).
RU soldier Alexander Kovalev missing since Jan 31, 2025; case highlights alleged mistreatment, forced contract, return to frontline despite severe injuries (ASTRA report, Mar 28).
Man dies in hospital from severe burns sustained during Mar 20 Kropyvnytskyi shelling (Mar 28).
