Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 10:56 UTC
(Incorporating information up to 10:56 UTC)
I. Key Developments & Strategic Overview
Overall Combat Intensity: High-intensity combat persists across the front, particularly concentrated on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions. Significant activity continues along the Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy border region.
Sudzha Gas Metering Station (GIS) Strike (Major Event):
Damage Confirmation: Significant damage and fire confirmed at the Sudzha GIS (Kursk Oblast, Russia) following strikes around 07:20 UTC, Mar 28. Multiple sources, including RU MoD video (via TASS 09:59 UTC, MoD 10:38 UTC) and Colonelcassad (10:38 UTC), show extensive damage. RU MoD claims the facility is "factually destroyed." Gas continues to burn as of 10:38 UTC.
Conflicting Attribution:
Russian MoD and multiple Russian sources (TASS, Colonelcassad, Kotsnews) attribute the strike to Ukrainian HIMARS.
Ukrainian officials (CPD Head Kovalenko, Naftogaz 10:26 UTC, STERNENKO 10:42 UTC) assert Russia attacked its own facility or Ukrainian gas infrastructure. Naftogaz confirmed the 18th attack (8th this year) on its facilities, damaging gas production capabilities but causing no casualties.
Russian Framing & Implications: The Russian MoD frames the alleged Ukrainian strike as undermining potential energy infrastructure attack moratorium discussions. President Putin reportedly discussed Kyiv's attacks on energy infrastructure with President Erdogan (TASS 10:08 UTC). Russian commentators (Colonelcassad 10:38 UTC) call for increased strikes on Ukrainian industrial centers.
Russian Weekly Claims (RU MoD, 10:44-10:48 UTC):
Claimed liberation of 5 settlements over the past week, including Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv Oblast) reported today (10:45 UTC). Hoholivka (Kursk Oblast) liberation also claimed today (10:10 UTC).
Claimed 7 group strikes targeting Ukrainian military airfields, training centers, and ammunition depots over the week.
President Putin reiterated Russia will continue operations if no peaceful settlement is reached, claiming initiative (Dnevnik Desantnika 10:34 UTC, RVvoenkor 10:53 UTC). Stated readiness to work with West but without trust. Mentioned previous Istanbul talks regarding demilitarization/denazification (RVvoenkor 10:53 UTC).
US Secretary of State Rubio deems high-level US-Russia talks premature (RBC-Ukraine 10:06 UTC).
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Russian Advance Claims:
Hoholivka (Gogolevka), Kursk Oblast: Liberation officially confirmed by Russian MoD (10:10 UTC), echoed by multiple RU sources (Colonelcassad, RVvoenkor). RU forces reportedly advanced towards Sumy Oblast following this (TASS 10:40 UTC).
Guevo Area (Kursk Oblast): Ongoing fighting reported. Russian forces claim control of the northern part and advances near the Sudzha border crossing (Geolocated video previously cited, Colonelcassad 10:38 UTC).
Popovka Area (Belgorod Oblast): RU sources (Kotsnews 10:43 UTC, Sliv_Capriz 10:48 UTC) claim a Ukrainian assault group infiltrated outskirts but was destroyed by drone strike. Active fighting and RU shelling reported in the area (Sliv_Capriz 10:48 UTC). Location approx. 1.5 km from demarcation line.
Russian Strikes: RU MoD (10:10 UTC) claims strikes on elements of multiple Ukrainian brigades (Mechanized, Air Assault, Presidential, TD) near Gornal, Guyevo, Oleshnya and extensive strikes across numerous settlements in Sumy Oblast.
Ukrainian Reports:
UGS (09:26 UTC) claimed 18 Russian assaults repelled in Kursk region (past day).
Heavy RU artillery/air/drone strikes continue. KAB threat towards Sumy Oblast reported earlier (Mar 28, 00:11 UTC).
Russian Casualties: Hero of Russia, Major Marat Tibilov (Rosgvardia Special Forces Center fire group commander), confirmed killed in Kursk Oblast (Rosgvardia, TASS, multiple RU/UA sources including Colonelcassad 10:14 UTC, RVvoenkor 10:29 UTC, STERNENKO 10:00 UTC, Shtefan 10:20 UTC). Public procurement notice for 15+ military funerals in Novosibirsk region (Mobilization channel 10:04 UTC) suggests ongoing broader losses.
Russian Stated Losses Inflicted (Kursk Direction, RU MoD 10:10 UTC): Claim >320 UA personnel losses, 5 AFVs, 6 vehicles, 2 artillery guns, 2 ATVs, 1 electronic recon station, 3 UAV CPs in past 24 hours. Cumulative claims (>70,700 troops since start) are highly likely inflated.
III. Frontline Activity (Selected Axes)
Pokrovsk (RU: Krasnoarmeysk) Direction:
Remains primary RU focus; high intensity.
RU Claims (10:27 UTC): Advancing towards Kotlyarivka, holding outskirts of Oleksiivka, advancing towards Bohdanivka.
UA Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC): 68 RU assaults repelled near multiple settlements.
Lyman Direction:
High intensity. RU main effort.
RU Claims (10:27 UTC): Advance near Nove.
UA Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC): 32 RU assaults repelled near multiple settlements. Terny previously assessed as almost fully RU-occupied (DeepState).
Kupyansk Direction:
High intensity. RU main effort.
RU Claims (10:27 UTC): Expanded zone of control near Novolyubivka.
UA Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC): 26 RU assaults repelled near Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, etc.
Kharkiv Direction:
RU Claim: Liberation of Krasne Pershe (RU MoD 10:45 UTC).
UA Reports (OTU Kharkiv 10:55 UTC): 6 RU assaults repelled near Vovchansk, Fyholivka. Claimed RU losses in zone (past day): 75 personnel (40 KIA), 107 equipment units (incl. 2 BBM, 12 Arty, 66 UAV). 109 RU kamikaze drones, 662 RU shelling instances reported.
Toretsk Direction:
High intensity. RU main effort.
UA Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC): 24 RU assaults repelled near Krymske, Ozaryanivka, Kurdumivka, Toretsk, etc.
RU Claims (Dnevnik Desantnika 10:08 UTC): Success developing near Razliv (claimed foothold on eastern outskirts); complex fighting near Vesele (heavy drone use, counter-battery); consolidation in eastern Volne Pole, advancing towards center.
UA Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC - Novopavlivka): 14 RU assaults repelled near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, Dniproenerhiya, Burlatske.
UA Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC - Huliaipole): 9 RU assaults repelled near Pryvilne, Novosilka, Vilne Pole.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv Direction):
Tense situation previously reported by UA spokesperson Voloshyn.
RU Claim: Drone strike destroyed UA dugout near Mala Tokmachka (Voin DV 10:30 UTC). Earlier RU claims of airstrikes near Mala Tokmachka.
UA Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC): 9 RU assaults repelled near Scherbaky, Lobkove, Kamyanske.
Bakhmut Direction: RU "Espanola" unit installed a cross in Bakhmut under EW cover, reportedly honoring fallen soldiers (Dva Mayora 10:45 UTC).
Other Directions (UGS - repelled assaults as of 09:26 UTC report): Kramatorsk (4), Sieversk (3).
IV. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Current Threats (As of ~10:56 UTC):
Shahed Launch: Reported from Primorsko-Akhtarsk & Crimea (~08:56 UTC, Tsaplienko 10:04 UTC). Threat likely developing for southern/central regions.
Tactical Aviation / KAB Threat: Persists for frontline regions. KAB launches reported earlier in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Alert ended for northern/eastern regions (~10:26 UTC, UA Air Force).
Overnight Shahed Attack (Mar 27/28 Recap): Ukraine reported intercepting 89 out of 163 launched Russian UAVs (strike/imitator). Impacts/fires reported, especially in Sumy Oblast border areas.
Destruction of UA HMMWV near Predtechyne (Poddubny video 10:00 UTC).
Destruction of UA 2S22 Bohdana SPG (S. Donetsk direction, previous report).
Destruction of UA field ammunition depot via air-launched unguided rocket (NAR), causing detonation (Dva Mayora 10:55 UTC).
Drone strike on UA dugout near Mala Tokmachka (Voin DV 10:30 UTC).
Drone strike destroyed UA assault group in Popovka (Kotsnews 10:43 UTC).
7 group strikes on UA airfields, training centers, depots in past week (RU MoD 10:44 UTC).
UA Claims:
Russia attacked its own Sudzha facility / Ukrainian Naftogaz facilities (CPD, Naftogaz). Naftogaz reports damage to gas production facilities from 18th RU attack.
Downing of RU recon UAVs (Sumy, previous). UA source (Operatyvnyi ZSU 10:16 UTC) highlights RU concern over UA anti-drone effectiveness, citing 2517 RU recon UAVs claimed destroyed (verified count as of Mar 22).
Drone strikes on RU positions (Kupyansk, previous).
OTU Kharkiv claims 66 RU UAVs destroyed in zone (past day) (10:55 UTC).
V. Other Noteworthy Information
Diplomatic/Political:
Putin-Erdogan Call: Confirmed (see I.).
US-Russia Talks: US deems high-level talks premature (see I.).
US-Ukraine Agreement: Ukrainian government confirmed receipt of US draft agreement on mineral resources/aid repayment; formulating position (RBC-Ukraine 09:38 UTC).
Italy PM Meloni skeptical of Macron's "deterrence forces" idea for Ukraine, prefers NATO Art. 5 extension without membership (RBC-Ukraine 10:49 UTC).
Casualties/Personnel:
RU Major Marat Tibilov (Hero of Russia, Rosgvardia) KIA in Kursk Oblast confirmed by multiple RU/UA sources (see II.). Putin awarded him Hero star one month prior (RVvoenkor 10:29 UTC).
RU procurement notice for 15+ military funerals (Novosibirsk) indicates ongoing RU personnel losses (Mobilization 10:04 UTC).
Internal Security (Russia):
FSB claims detention of alleged neo-Nazi planning mosque arson attack in Crimea (Dnevnik Desantnika, previous report).
Report of thwarted terror attack in Moscow administrative building; detained individual allegedly recruited by UA спецслужбы (Colonelcassad 10:53 UTC).
Logistics/Equipment:
Interview with UA drone pilot ("Kapelan," Butusov Plus 10:24 UTC) highlights perceived disparity in drone availability compared to Russia ("Russia has 100 drones, throws them like stones").
RU MoD weekly claims included destruction of numerous UA vehicles, artillery, EW, radar systems (treat numbers with caution).
