Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 10:26 UTC
(Incorporating information up to 10:26 UTC)
I. Key Developments & Strategic Overview
Overall Combat Intensity: High-intensity combat continues across the front, with Russian main efforts concentrated on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions. Significant activity persists along the Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy border region.
Sudzha Gas Metering Station (GIS) Strike (Significant Event):
Damage Confirmation: Multiple sources, including Russian MoD video released via TASS (09:59 UTC), confirm significant damage and fire at the Sudzha GIS (Kursk Oblast, Russia) following strikes around 07:20 UTC, Mar 28. Russian MoD claims the facility is "factually destroyed".
Conflicting Attribution:
Russian MoD and multiple Russian sources maintain the strike was conducted by Ukrainian HIMARS.
Ukrainian officials (CPD Head Kovalenko) and sources assert Russia attacked its own facility. Kotsnews (10:24 UTC) reports Kyiv's claim of Russian self-attack, dismissing it as typical denial.
Russian Framing & Implications: The Russian MoD frames the alleged Ukrainian strike as undermining potential ceasefire/moratorium discussions on energy infrastructure attacks. Commentators advocate for escalation. President Putin reportedly discussed Kyiv's attacks on energy infrastructure with President Erdogan (TASS 10:08 UTC).
Kursk/Belgorod Border Clashes:
Russian Advance Claim (Confirmed by RU MoD): Russian MoD (09:46 UTC, 10:10 UTC) officially confirms the liberation of Hoholivka (Gogolevka), Kursk Oblast, by the "Sever" Group of Forces. This is echoed by multiple Russian sources (TASS, WarGonzo, RVvoenkor, Kotsnews, Voenkor Kotenok, Dva Mayora, Colonelcassad).
Ongoing Fighting: Fighting reported in Guevo (Kursk Oblast border), with Russian forces claiming control of the northern part and advances near the Sudzha border crossing (Geolocated video cited earlier). RVvoenkor posted video claiming RU 22nd MRR engagement.
Russian Officer KIA (Confirmed): Hero of Russia, Major Marat Tibilov (Rosgvardia Special Forces Center fire group commander), confirmed killed in Kursk Oblast (Rosgvardia, TASS, multiple RU/UA sources incl. Kotsnews, Poddubny, Colonelcassad, Operatyvnyi ZSU, STERNENKO, Shtefan).
Energy Infrastructure Strikes:
Russian Claims: Continue to allege Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities (Sudzha GIS, Saratov Refinery, Belgorod, Bryansk, Occupied Kherson - including Aleshky substation).
Ukrainian Reports: Russian forces persist with air, drone (Shahed, Lancet, FPV), artillery, and KAB strikes targeting Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure.
Air/Drone Warfare:
Mass Exchange (Overnight Mar 27/28): Ukraine reported Russia launched 163 UAVs (strike/imitator), confirming 89 strike UAVs shot down. Russia claimed intercepting 78 Ukrainian UAVs.
Ongoing Threat (New Launches): Shahed launches reported from Primorsko-Akhtarsk and Crimea around 11:56 Local Time (~08:56 UTC) (Tsaplienko).
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Russian MoD Report (10:10 UTC):
Confirms liberation of Hoholivka (Gogolevka), Kursk Oblast.
Claims strikes on elements of multiple Ukrainian brigades (Mechanized, Air Assault, Presidential, Territorial Defence) near Gornal, Guyevo, Oleshnya.
Claims extensive strikes on manpower/hardware in numerous settlements across Sumy Oblast.
Claims inflicting over 320 Ukrainian personnel losses in Kursk direction in the past 24 hours, along with equipment destruction (5 AFVs, 6 vehicles, 2 artillery guns, 2 ATVs, 1 electronic recon station, 3 UAV CPs).
Provides cumulative alleged Ukrainian losses in Kursk direction since start of hostilities (e.g., >70,700 troops, 402 tanks - Treat with extreme caution, likely highly inflated).
States operation to "neutralise AFU units" is ongoing.
Fighting: Intense positional fighting, heavy artillery/drone exchanges. Russian forces consolidating gains in previously contested areas within Kursk Oblast.
Guevo Area: Fighting ongoing, RU claims northern control and advances up to 2km near the Sudzha border crossing.
Oleshnya Area: Kotsnews suggests potential UA withdrawal following Sudzha GIS strikes.
Ukrainian Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC): Claimed 18 Russian assaults repelled in Kursk region (past day).
Russian Casualties: Major Marat Tibilov KIA confirmed. Public procurement notice for 15+ military funerals in Novosibirsk region (Mobilization channel) suggests ongoing Russian losses.
III. Frontline Activity (Selected Axes)
Pokrovsk (RU: Krasnoarmeysk) Direction:
Remains primary RU focus; high intensity.
RU Claims: Advancing towards Kotlyarivka, holding outskirts of Oleksiivka, advancing towards Bohdanivka.
UA Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC): 68 RU assaults repelled near multiple settlements.
Lyman Direction:
High intensity.
RU Claims: Advance near Nove.
UA Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC): 32 RU assaults repelled near multiple settlements.
Kupyansk Direction:
High intensity.
RU Claims: Expanded zone of control near Novolyubivka.
UA Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC): 26 RU assaults repelled near Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, etc.
RU Claims (Dnevnik Desantnika 10:08 UTC): Success developing near Razliv (claimed foothold on eastern outskirts); complex fighting near Vesele (heavy drone use, counter-battery); consolidation in eastern Volne Pole, advancing towards center.
UA Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC - Novopavlivka): 14 RU assaults repelled near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, Dniproenerhiya, Burlatske.
UA Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC - Huliaipole): 9 RU assaults repelled near Pryvilne, Novosilka, Vilne Pole.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv Direction):
Tense situation reported by UA spokesperson Voloshyn.
RU KAB launches reported.
UA Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC): 9 RU assaults repelled near Scherbaky, Lobkove, Kamyanske.
Kharkiv Direction:
UA Reports (UGS 09:26 UTC): 6 RU assaults repelled near Vovchansk, Fyholivka.
Other Directions (UGS - repelled assaults as of 09:26 UTC report): Kramatorsk (4), Sieversk (3).
IV. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Current Threats (As of ~10:26 UTC):
Shahed Launch: Reported from Primorsko-Akhtarsk & Crimea (~08:56 UTC). Threat likely developing for southern/central regions.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Warning active for Sumy and other northern/eastern regions (potential launches from Kursk).
Tactical Aviation / KAB Threat: Active on southeastern and eastern/northeastern fronts. KAB launches reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Threat persists for frontline regions.
UAV Activity: Reported in Poltava, Kharkiv Oblasts (potential air defence engagement). Recon UAV over Odesa Oblast.
Air Raid Alerts: Active in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding Zaporizhzhia city), Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
Overnight Shahed Attack (Mar 27/28 Recap): Ukraine reported intercepting 89 out of 163 launched Russian UAVs (strike/imitator). Impacts/fires reported, especially in Sumy Oblast border areas.
Recent Strike Claims:
RU Claims: HIMARS strike destroyed Sudzha GIS; Destruction of UA HMMWV near Predtechyne (Poddubny video 10:00 UTC); Destruction of UA 2S22 Bohdana SPG (S. Donetsk).
UA Claims: Russia attacked its own Sudzha facility; Downing of RU recon UAVs (Sumy); Drone strikes on RU positions (Kupyansk). UA source (Operatyvnyi ZSU 10:16 UTC) highlights RU concern over UA anti-drone effectiveness, citing 2517 RU recon UAVs claimed destroyed.
V. Other Noteworthy Information
Diplomatic/Political:
Putin-Erdogan Call: Confirmed discussion of Ukraine situation, Kyiv's attacks on energy infrastructure, and US dialogue assessments (Kremlin via TASS 10:08 UTC, 10:16 UTC). Erdogan reiterated readiness to host talks.
US-Russia Talks: US Secretary of State Rubio deems high-level talks premature, citing need for technical progress (RBC-Ukraine 10:06 UTC).
US-Ukraine Agreement: Ukrainian government (VP Svyrydenko) confirmed receipt of US draft agreement concerning mineral resources/aid repayment; position being formulated (RBC-Ukraine 09:38 UTC).
Casualties/Personnel:
RU Major Marat Tibilov (Hero of Russia, Rosgvardia) KIA in Kursk Oblast confirmed by multiple RU/UA sources.
RU procurement notice for 15+ military funerals (Novosibirsk) indicates ongoing personnel losses.
Training/Development (Ukraine): New course on military history/identity launched in "Armiya+" app (OTU Kharkiv, UA MoD). Interview with UA drone pilot highlights disparity in drone availability compared to Russia (Butusov Plus).
