Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 09:56 UTC
(Incorporating information up to 09:56 UTC)
I. Strategic Overview & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: High-intensity combat persists across the front, with major Russian efforts focused on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions. Significant activity continues along the Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy border region. Russian forces concentrate assaults near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).
Sudzha Gas Metering Station (GIS) Strike (Significant Event):
Damage Confirmed: Multiple sources confirm significant damage and a large fire at the Sudzha GIS (Kursk Oblast, Russia) following strikes around 10:20 Local Time (approx. 07:20 UTC), Mar 28. Russian MoD claims the facility is "factually destroyed".
Conflicting Attribution:
The Russian Ministry of Defence (RU MoD) and multiple Russian sources (Kotsnews, Voenkor Kotenok, RVvoenkor, Rybar, Dva Mayora, Dnevnik Desantnika) claim a double strike by Ukrainian HIMARS.
Head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD), Kovalenko, and other Ukrainian sources (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko) state Russia attacked its own facility, which it does not control on the ground.
Russian Framing: RU MoD frames this alleged Ukrainian strike as a continuation of attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, undermining any potential ceasefire/moratorium discussions. Russian commentators (Kotsnews, Rybar, Dva Mayora, Dnevnik Desantnika, Fighterbomber) echo this, questioning Ukrainian adherence to agreements and advocating for escalatory responses, potentially targeting Kyiv leadership.
Russian Advance Claims (Kursk Border):
RU MoD and associated sources (TASS, WarGonzo, RVvoenkor, Kotsnews, Dva Mayora, Colonelcassad) claim the liberation of Hoholivka (Gogolevka), Kursk Oblast.
Fighting reported ongoing in Guevo (Kursk Oblast border), with RU forces claiming control of the northern part and advances near the Sudzha border crossing. (Geolocated video evidence cited at 51.097113 35.268393).
Mass Drone Exchange (Overnight Mar 27/28):
Ukrainian Report: Russia launched 163 strike (Shahed-type) and imitator UAVs. 89 strike UAVs confirmed shot down over southern, northern, and central Ukraine (Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia) as of 09:00 UTC. 51 imitator drones reported "locationally lost".
Russian Report: RU MoD claimed interception/destruction of 78 Ukrainian UAVs over eight Russian Oblasts.
Saratov Refinery: 19 UA UAVs claimed intercepted targeting the facility early Mar 28.
Belgorod Oblast: Artillery strike hit a "Rosseti" facility (Shebekinsky district) on Mar 27. WarGonzo reports UA strikes on an electrical substation near Aleshky (Occupied Kherson), causing power outages.
Bryansk Oblast: Strike on an energy facility in Sevsky district morning Mar 28.
Occupied Kherson: UA strikes claimed on four energy facilities.
Russian forces continue extensive air, drone (2911 kamikaze attacks reported previous day by Operatyvnyi ZSU), and artillery (6430 shelling incidents reported previous day) strikes, including Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs - 157 reported previous day), targeting Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure.
Firefighters battled blazes overnight in Sumy Oblast (Krasnopillia, Hlukhiv) following Russian shelling; repeated strikes reportedly hampered rescue efforts in Krasnopillia.
Shelling of Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast) using "Molniya" UAV and MLRS damaged residential building and outbuilding; 3 civilians injured (2 acute stress reaction, 1 wounded). (Kharkiv OVA, ASTRA).
Diplomatic/Political Context:
Potential Ceasefire Breakdown: Russian sources widely interpret the Sudzha strike (attributed to Ukraine) as a breach of potential understandings regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, potentially nullifying any moratorium. (Fighterbomber, Dva Mayora, Rybar).
Turkey Mediation Offer: President Erdogan reiterated Turkey's readiness to host peace talks during a phone call with President Putin (TASS, RVvoenkor).
US-Ukraine Agreement: Reports persist (Operatyvnyi ZSU, YeP via Tsaplienko, TASS, RBC-Ukraine) regarding a potentially contentious draft US-Ukraine agreement involving mineral resources and aid repayment ($120bn+). Ukrainian government (VP Svyrydenko) confirmed receipt of a working version and is formulating a position.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity (Recent & Ongoing)
Current Threats (As of ~09:56 UTC):
Ballistic Missile Threat: Warning active for Sumy and other northern/eastern regions due to potential launches from Kursk (UA AFU, Zaporizhzhia OVA). Ballistic missile reported heading towards Sumy (UA AFU).
Tactical Aviation / KAB Threat: Russian tactical aviation active on southeastern and eastern/northeastern fronts. KAB launches reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UA AFU). Threat persists for frontline regions (UA AFU).
Reconnaissance UAVs: Enemy recon UAV active over Odesa Oblast from Black Sea (UA AFU).
UAV Activity: Activity reported in Poltava Oblast, potential air defense engagement (UA AFU). Activity and possible air defense ongoing in Kharkiv Oblast (UA AFU).
Air Raid Alerts: Active in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding Zaporizhzhia city), Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
UAV Production: Destruction of UA UAV workshop/warehouse in Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv Oblast (RU MoD).
Ammo Transport: BM-21 Grad strike destroyed UA ammo transport near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) (Narodnaya Militsiya DNR).
UAV Carrier: Destruction of UA Dovbush T-20 UAV carrier in Chernihiv Oblast using fiber-optic FPV drone (Colonelcassad).
Fortified Positions: Tank strike on UA positions (Colonelcassad).
Vehicles: Destruction of UA HMMWV near Predtechyne (Kotsnews); Destruction of UA 2S22 Bohdana SPG in South Donetsk direction (Voin DV).
Artillery/Drone Ops: Strikes by 691st Howitzer Btn, 1461st MRR near Vesele (Huliaipole direction), incl. destruction of UA UAV launcher (Voin DV). FPV strike ("SSO Vizantiya") on damaged UA BMP near Pokrovsk (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Ukrainian Claims/Activity:
Sudzha GIS Strike: Attributed to Russia attacking its own facility (CPD Head Kovalenko, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko).
Air Defence: Unit PRIME claims shootdown of 2 Zala and 2 Supercam reconnaissance UAVs over Sumy Oblast (Sternenko).
Drone Strikes: Strikes by 5th Slobozhanska Brigade / OTU Kharkiv targeting RU infantry positions/buildings in Dvorichna / Kupyansk directions (OTU Kharkiv). Strikes by 154th Mech Bde targeting RU infantry (OTU Kharkiv). Strikes by NGU "Kara-Dag" Brigade using reusable FPV drones (adapted for drops) in Kupyansk direction (OTU Kharkiv).
Energy Infrastructure Strikes (RU Claims): Alleged UA HIMARS on Sudzha GIS; 19 UAVs on Saratov refinery; Artillery on Belgorod power facility; Strike on Bryansk power facility; Strikes on Kherson power facilities; Strike on Aleshky substation.
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Kharkiv)
Overall: Intense positional fighting, heavy artillery/drone exchanges, and claimed cross-border actions persist. Russian forces claim advances within Kursk Oblast previously occupied by Ukrainian elements.
Hoholivka (Gogolevka): Claimed fully "liberated" by RU MoD and multiple sources.
Sudzha Border Crossing / Guevo Area: RU 51st Para Regt allegedly secured positions near crossing. Claimed control of northern Guevo, with fighting ongoing south of the settlement. Claimed total advance of up to 2 km along the front near Guevo. (Geolocated video to 51.097113 35.268393). RVvoenkor posts video claiming RU 22nd MRR engaging UA forces in Guevo.
Oleshnya Area: Previous reports claimed UA 95th Brigade forces holding Oleshnya were in semi-encirclement with heavy losses. Kotsnews suggests UA forces preparing to withdraw from Oleshnya following the Sudzha GIS strikes.
UA Repelled Assaults (UGS): Ukrainian General Staff reported 18 Russian assaults repelled in Kursk region over the past day (as of Mar 28, 09:26 UTC report).
Russian Officer Casualty (Confirmed): Hero of Russia, Major Marat Tibilov (Rosgvardia), confirmed killed during combat duty in Kursk Oblast (Rosgvardia, TASS, WarGonzo, Kotsnews, Poddubny, Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Russian Casualty Claims (RU MoD): Claim >320 UA personnel losses on Kursk direction in past 24h (TASS).
Belgorod Oblast (RU Claims):
Renewed UA ground assaults on Popovka (Krasnoyaruzhsky Dist.) reported overnight/morning Mar 28, claimed repelled. Small arms fighting reported within Popovka. Attacks on Demidovka also claimed repelled. Situation remains "difficult" (RU Governor).
Yesterday's fighting near Popovka described as fierce.
IV. Frontline Activity (Selected Axes)
Pokrovsk (RU: Krasnoarmeysk) Direction:
Intensity: Remains a primary focus of RU assaults.
RU Claims: Advancing towards Kotlyarivka (claimed 600m advance). UA counterattacks near Oleksiivka, RU claims holding outskirts. Assault groups advancing towards Bohdanivka from Sribne, claim reaching eastern part. FPV strike ("SSO Vizantiya") destroyed damaged UA BMP with 3 soldiers inside (Dnevnik Desantnika).
UA Reports (UGS): Clashes near multiple settlements including Panteleymonivka, Oleksandropil, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Andriyivka, towards Malynivka, Novooleksandrivka. 68 RU assaults repelled (as of Mar 28, 09:26 UTC report).
POWs: UA SSO reportedly captured RU POWs near Pokrovsk (Butusov identifies one from 55th Bde).
Lyman Direction:
Intensity: High.
RU Claims: Advance near Nove (Colonelcassad).
UA Reports (UGS): Clashes near Nadiya, Kolodyazi, Myrne, Yampolivka and towards Novoserhiyivka, Nove, Olhivka, Dronivka, Hryhorivka. 32 RU assaults repelled (as of Mar 28, 09:26 UTC report).
Kupyansk Direction:
Intensity: High.
RU Claims: Expanded zone of control near Novolyubivka (Colonelcassad).
UA Reports (UGS): Clashes near Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove and towards Petropavlivka, Pischane, Bohuslavka. 26 RU assaults repelled (as of Mar 28, 09:26 UTC report).
UA Drone Strikes: Reported strikes on RU infantry positions (OTU Kharkiv, 5th Slobozhanska Bde). NGU "Kara-Dag" strikes reported (OTU Kharkiv).
UA Reports (UGS): Clashes near Krymske, Ozaryanivka, Kurdumivka, Toretsk and towards Dyliyivka, Leonidivka, Scherbynivka. 24 RU assaults repelled (as of Mar 28, 09:26 UTC report).
POWs: UA 12th Azov Brigade reported capturing 20 RU POWs after failed assaults (Butusov Plus).
RU Claim: BM-21 Grad strike destroyed UA ammo transport near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) (Narodnaya Militsiya DNR).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv/Huliaipole Directions):
UA Assessment (Spokesman Voloshyn): Situation becoming more tense; RU activating assaults with small infantry groups, accumulating forces.
RU Claims: Advance near Volne Pole and Burlatske (Colonelcassad). Artillery strikes near Vesele (Voin DV). Video showing fighting/damage in Gulyaypole (Slivochny Kapriz).
UA Reports (UGS): Clashes near Scherbaky, Lobkove, Kamyanske (Orikhiv axis - 9 assaults repelled). Clashes near Pryvilne, Novosilka and towards Vilne Pole (Huliaipole axis - 9 assaults repelled) (as of Mar 28, 09:26 UTC report).
Novopavlivka Direction:
RU Claim: Expanded zone of control near Razdolne and Dniproenerhiya (Colonelcassad).
UA Reports (UGS): Clashes near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, Dniproenerhiya and Burlatske. 14 RU assaults repelled (as of Mar 28, 09:26 UTC report).
Kharkiv Direction:
UA Reports (UGS): Clashes near Vovchansk and Fyholivka. 6 RU assaults repelled (as of Mar 28, 09:26 UTC report).
Other Directions (UGS - repelled assaults as of 09:26 UTC report): Kramatorsk (4), Sieversk (3).
V. Other Key Developments
Humanitarian/Casualties:
Russian Personnel: RU Soldier Bogdan Andreev (b.1994, callsign "Fartovyi", 3rd MRD) reported MIA after 3 weeks (Butusov Plus). Video interview with UA POW Mykola Boiko released by RU sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Ukrainian Personnel: Video interview with RU POW Zulfat Amikachev (55th Bde, captured near Pokrovsk) released by UA sources.
Civilian Casualties: 3 injured in Kupyansk shelling (Kharkiv OVA, ASTRA). Firefighters battled blazes in Sumy Oblast border communities after shelling (RBC-Ukraine).
Training & Development (Ukraine): Ukrainian General Staff promotes sapper training (82nd Air Assault Bde). New course on Ukrainian military history and identity launched in "Armiya+" app (OTU Kharkiv, UA MoD).
Foreign Policy/Support:
EU reportedly preparing 17th sanctions package (RBC-Ukraine).
NATO Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone statements highlighted (RBC-Ukraine): No automatic NATO entry post-peace talks; NATO capabilities outweigh Russia's; Ukrainian forces are primary security guarantor; Frozen conflict is worst scenario.
VI. Equipment & Technology
Ukrainian Drone Use: Continued FPV strikes (Pokrovsk, Dvorichna, Kupyansk). Use of reusable FPV drones for drops reported (OTU Kharkiv). Successful counter-UAV operations (Sumy).
Russian Drone Use: FPV drone destroys UA UAV carrier (Chernihiv). FPV strike on damaged BMP (Pokrovsk). Strikes near Vesele (Huliaipole).
Artillery: Russian BM-21 Grad used near Toretsk. Russian artillery strikes near Vesele.
