Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 09:26 UTC
(Incorporating updates received up to 09:26 UTC)
I. Strategic Overview & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: High-intensity combat persists across the front, with major efforts focused on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions, and the Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy border region. Russian forces are reportedly concentrating assaults near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).
Sudzha Gas Metering Station (GIS) Strike (Significant Event):
Damage Confirmed: Multiple sources confirm significant damage and a large fire at the Sudzha GIS (Kursk Oblast, Russia) following strikes around 10:20 UTC, Mar 28.
Russian Attribution: The Russian Ministry of Defence (RU MoD) and multiple Russian sources claim a double strike by Ukrainian HIMARS effectively destroyed the facility.
Ukrainian Attribution: Head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD), Kovalenko, and other Ukrainian sources state Russia attacked its own facility, which it does not control on the ground.
Context: RU MoD frames this alleged Ukrainian strike as a continuation of attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, calling Kyiv's supposed commitments to cease such attacks a "ruse" aimed at preventing front collapse and gaining time.
Mass Drone Exchange (Overnight Mar 27/28):
Ukraine: Launched 163 strike (Shahed-type) and imitator UAVs from Russia and occupied Crimea. 89 strike UAVs confirmed shot down over southern, northern, and central Ukraine (Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia) as of 09:00 UTC. 51 imitator drones reported "locationally lost".
Russia: RU MoD claimed interception/destruction of 78 Ukrainian UAVs over eight Russian Oblasts.
Continued Energy Infrastructure Strikes:
Russian Claims: RU MoD claims 19 UA UAVs targeting the Saratov oil refinery were intercepted/downed early Mar 28. An artillery strike on Mar 27 hit a "Rosseti" facility in Belgorod Oblast (Shebekinsky district). Russian source (Mash na Donbasse) claimed UA strikes hit four energy facilities in occupied Kherson Oblast. RU MoD also mentioned a strike on an energy facility in Sevsky district, Bryansk Oblast this morning.
Ukrainian Reports: Russian forces continue extensive air, drone (2911 kamikaze attacks reported previous day by Operatyvnyi ZSU), and artillery (6430 shelling incidents reported previous day) strikes, including Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs - 157 reported previous day), targeting Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure. Firefighters battled blazes overnight in Sumy Oblast (Krasnopillia, Hlukhiv) following Russian shelling; repeated strikes reportedly hampered rescue efforts in Krasnopillia. A large, persistent fire was observed in the Sumy direction (RU source claim, potentially energy infrastructure).
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Russian Air/Missile/Drone Activity:
Ongoing Threats (as of ~09:22 UTC): Missile threat warning issued for Sumy (UA AFU). Reconnaissance UAV reported over Odesa Oblast from Black Sea (UA AFU). UAV activity and possible air defense engagement ongoing in Kharkiv Oblast (UA AFU). Tactical aviation activity continues on eastern/northeastern fronts with KAB threats.
Claimed Strikes (RU):
Destruction of UA UAV production workshop/warehouse in Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv Oblast (RU MoD).
BM-21 Grad strike destroyed UA ammo transport near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) (Narodnaya Militsiya DNR).
Destruction of UA Dovbush T-20 UAV carrier in Chernihiv Oblast using fiber-optic FPV drone (Colonelcassad).
Tank strike on UA fortified positions (Colonelcassad).
Destruction of UA HMMWV near Predtechyne (Kostiantynivka direction) by drone (Kotsnews).
Artillery strikes (691st Howitzer Btn, 1461st MRR) on UA positions near Vesele (Huliaipole direction), including destruction of UA UAV launcher (Voin DV).
Ukrainian Air/Missile/Drone Activity:
Overnight Campaign: (See Section I).
Energy Infrastructure Strikes: (See Section I - Sudzha, Saratov, Belgorod, Bryansk).
Air Defence Claims: Unit PRIME claims shootdown of 2 Zala and 2 Supercam reconnaissance UAVs over Sumy Oblast (Sternenko).
Reported Strikes (UA Claims): Drone strikes by 5th Slobozhanska Brigade / OTU Kharkiv targeting RU infantry positions/buildings in Dvorichna / Kupyansk directions.
Reported Strikes (RU Claims): Destruction of UA 2S22 Bohdana SPG in South Donetsk direction by RU UAV (Voin DV).
Procurement/Supply: Delivery of 68 DJI Mavic drones to UA National Guard units (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Ongoing large-scale public fundraising for FPV drones (Sternenko reports 420 FPVs purchased in last 24h, total 165,519).
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Kharkiv)
Overall: Intense positional fighting, heavy artillery/drone exchanges, and claimed cross-border actions persist.
Sudzha Border Crossing / Guevo Area: RU 51st Para Regt allegedly secured positions near crossing. Claimed control of northern Guevo, with fighting ongoing south of the settlement. Claimed total advance of up to 2 km along the front near Guevo. (Geolocated to 51.097113 35.268393).
Oleshnya Area: UA 95th Brigade forces holding Oleshnya claimed to be in semi-encirclement with heavy losses; reinforcement difficult.
RU Captured Equipment Claim: Alleged captured/damaged US-supplied M1117 ASV reported in Kursk Oblast (Colonelcassad).
UA Repelled Assaults: Ukrainian General Staff reports 18 Russian assaults repelled in Kursk region over the past day.
Russian Officer Casualty: Hero of Russia, Major Marat Tibilov (Rosgvardia), reported killed during combat duty in Kursk Oblast (Rosgvardia, TASS, WarGonzo).
Belgorod Oblast (RU Claims):
Renewed UA ground assaults on Popovka (Krasnoyaruzhsky Dist.) reported overnight/morning Mar 28, claimed repelled. Small arms fighting reported within Popovka. Attacks on Demidovka also claimed repelled. Situation remains "difficult" (RU Governor).
Yesterday's fighting near Popovka described as fierce.
IV. Frontline Activity
General: High intensity reported by UA General Staff across multiple axes. RU sources (Colonelcassad) claim advances near Nove (Lyman?), Sudzha border crossing, Razdolne/Dniproenerhiya (Novopavlivka?), Volne Pole/Burlatske (Huliaipole?), Novolyubivka (Kupyansk?).
Pokrovsk (RU: Krasnoarmeysk) Direction:
RU Claims (Dnevnik Desantnika): Advancing towards Kotlyarivka (claimed 600m advance). UA counterattacks near Oleksiivka, RU claims holding outskirts. Assault groups advancing towards Bohdanivka from Sribne, claim reaching eastern part. FPV strike ("SSO Vizantiya") reportedly destroyed a damaged UA BMP with 3 soldiers inside.
UA Reports (General Staff): Clashes near Panteleymonivka, Oleksandropil, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Sukhyy Yar, Kotlyne, Udachne, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriyivka and towards Malynivka, Novooleksandrivka. 68 RU assaults repelled.
POWs: UA SSO reportedly captured RU POWs near Pokrovsk (Butusov video identifies one from 55th Bde).
Lyman Direction:
RU Claim (Colonelcassad): Advance near Nove.
UA Reports (General Staff): Clashes near Nadiya, Kolodyazi, Myrne, Yampolivka and towards Novoserhiyivka, Nove, Olhivka, Dronivka, Hryhorivka. 32 RU assaults repelled.
Kupyansk Direction:
RU Claim (Colonelcassad): Expanded zone of control near Novolyubivka.
UA Reports (General Staff): Clashes near Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove and towards Petropavlivka, Pischane, Niv Kruhlyakivka, Bohuslavka. 26 RU assaults repelled.
UA Drone Strikes: Reported strikes on RU infantry positions (OTU Kharkiv, 5th Slobozhanska Bde).
Toretsk Direction:
UA Reports (General Staff): Clashes near Krymske, Ozaryanivka, Kurdumivka, Toretsk and towards Dyliyivka, Leonidivka, Scherbynivka. 24 RU assaults repelled.
POWs: UA 12th Azov Brigade reported capturing 20 RU POWs after failed assaults (Butusov Plus).
RU Claim: BM-21 Grad strike destroyed UA ammo transport near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) (Narodnaya Militsiya DNR).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv/Huliaipole Directions):
UA Assessment (Spokesman Voloshyn): Situation becoming more tense; RU activating assaults with small infantry groups, accumulating forces. Number of assaults increased since early spring.
RU Claims (Colonelcassad, Voin DV, Slivochny Kapriz): Advance near Volne Pole and Burlatske. Artillery strikes near Vesele. Video showing fighting/damage in Gulyaypole.
UA Reports (General Staff): Clashes near Scherbaky, Lobkove, Kamyanske (Orikhiv axis - 9 assaults repelled). Clashes near Pryvilne, Novosilka and towards Vilne Pole (Huliaipole axis - 9 assaults repelled).
Novopavlivka Direction:
RU Claim (Colonelcassad): Expanded zone of control near Razdolne and Dniproenerhiya.
UA Reports (General Staff): Clashes near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, Dniproenerhiya and Burlatske. 14 RU assaults repelled.
Kramatorsk Direction:
UA Reports (General Staff): Clashes near Chasiv Yar and Predtechyne. 4 RU assaults repelled.
RU Claim: Destruction of UA HMMWV near Predtechyne by drone (Kotsnews).
Sieversk Direction:
UA Reports (General Staff): Clashes near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske. 3 RU assaults repelled.
Kharkiv Direction:
UA Reports (General Staff): Clashes near Vovchansk and Fyholivka. 6 RU assaults repelled.
South Donetsk Direction:
RU Claim: Destruction of UA 2S22 Bohdana SPG with UAV (Voin DV).
V. Other Key Developments
Humanitarian/Casualties:
Child Tracking: US State Dept confirms temporary funding extension for Conflict Observatory program; data transfer to Europol planned. UA Ombudsperson Herasymchuk states Russia abducted hundreds of thousands (potentially ~744k), with only 1247 returned, changing identities.
POWs/MIAs: UA Coordination Staff held online meeting with families of 24th Mech Bde soldiers. Video interview with UA POW Mykola Boiko released by RU sources. Video interview with RU POW Zulfat Amikachev (55th Bde, captured near Pokrovsk) released by UA sources.
UA Officer Casualties (Claim): Elimination claimed of RU Maj. Rustem Mulyukov, Capt. Andrey Baev, Capt. Andrey Kalugin (Shtefan).
RU Officer Casualty (Confirmed): Hero of Russia, Major Marat Tibilov (Rosgvardia) killed in Kursk Oblast.
Internal Security (Ukraine):
SBU Arrests: Two alleged RU agents detained in Donetsk Oblast.
Mobilization Issues: Video testimony alleges poor medical care, forced redeployment of injured. Report of soldier MIA after 3 weeks.
Legislation: Draft laws approved for prison terms for sanctions calls and in absentia trials for security crimes.
Propaganda: RU MoD claims capture of UA troops (Zapad Group). RU sources claim UA forces use psychotropic drugs near Belgorod border (requires verification). RU sources claim UA PsyOps spreading disinformation about Krasnaya Yaruga capture.
Foreign Involvement:
Identification claimed of US citizen Bradley Karl Jennison as participant in Oct 2024 Bryansk DRG raid (RU Claim).
Reports on potential changes to US-Ukraine agreements regarding aid repayment circulate (Political/Economic - Low direct operational impact).
EU reportedly preparing 17th sanctions package against Russia.
