Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 05:31 UTC
(Incorporating information received up to 05:31 UTC)
I. Strategic Overview
Combat Intensity & Main Efforts:
High intensity combat persists across the front. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) previously reported 195 combat clashes (as of 20:00 UTC, Mar 27).
Significant Russian strikes continue. Over the day prior to Mar 28 05:00 UTC (UGS): 74 aviation strikes (109 KABs), 1123 kamikaze drone attacks, nearly 4800 artillery shelling instances. Zaporizhzhia OVA reported 400 Russian strikes (9 air, 253 UAV, 13 MLRS, 125 artillery) on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast alone over the past 24 hours. Dnipropetrovsk OVA reported continued evening/overnight artillery, MLRS, and drone strikes.
Large-Scale Ukrainian Drone Campaign (Overnight Mar 27/28): Russian Ministry of Defence (RU MoD) claims interception/destruction of 78 Ukrainian UAVs over eight Russian Oblasts confirmed by multiple sources (ASTRA, RVvoenkor, Dnevnik Desantnika). Targeted regions include Voronezh (32), Saratov (19), Kursk (17), Belgorod (6), Lipetsk (2), Rostov (1), Tambov (1).
Main Russian Ground Efforts (UGS & RU Sources): Pokrovsk (Highest intensity), Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk directions, and intensified operations along the Kursk/Belgorod border. Incremental Russian advances previously confirmed near Katerynivka (Pokrovsk), Panteleimonivka (Toretsk), and Orlyanske (Kupyansk). Russian sources (incl. Rybar, WarGonzo, Mar 28) claim further advances near:
Lyman: Katerynivka/Nove, South of Yampolivka, Novoliubivka—Kolodezi.
Pokrovsk: Pishchane. Heavy fighting reported in Tarasivka with intense RU drone use (Dva Mayora).
South Donetsk: North of Burlatske, within Volne Pole, towards Razliv (WarGonzo).
Zaporizhzhia: Within Shcherbaky (claim advance to central part - WarGonzo).
Toretsk: Claim pushing UA forces from Panteleimonivka (Rybar).
Kursk Border Crossing Point: Russian forces (VDV) confirmed secure and raised the Russian flag over the MAPP Sudzha international checkpoint (Multiple RU sources, WarGonzo).
Belgorod Border: Heavy fighting reported in Popovka, temporarily occupied by UA forces but contested; RU forces regained control of Prilesye. Ongoing RU defense against UA probing attacks near Demidovka and Popovka (Rybar, WarGonzo).
Russian Stance & Intentions:
Putin maintains rhetoric focused on negotiation terms favorable to Russia, questioning Ukrainian leadership legitimacy, proposing a temporary UN-led administration (rejected by White House). Claims of strategic initiative persist.
Russia continues attempts to frame the narrative, claiming Ukraine violated the alleged energy strike moratorium and escalating via deep drone strikes.
Russian internal focus on strengthening Critical Information Infrastructure (CII) security and counter-extremism (FSB arrests in Crimea).
Indications persist of Russian preparations for potential offensives towards Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian sources claim significant Ukrainian force buildup near the Bryansk Oblast border, speculating offensive intent (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Naval Posture (Black Sea): As of morning Mar 28, the Ukrainian Navy reports 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier deployed in the Black Sea with a potential salvo of up to 4 missiles. No Russian warships reported in the Sea of Azov (RBC-Ukraine, UA Navy).
Ukrainian Posture & Claims:
UGS released updated claimed Russian losses.
Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk OVAs detailed extensive Russian strikes and resulting damage. Dnipropetrovsk OVA claimed 7 Russian UAVs downed over the oblast by PvK "Skhid".
Ukrainian forces continue cross-border operations in Belgorod Oblast, engaging in heavy fighting near Popovka and Demidovka (Rybar, WarGonzo).
RU expert claims UA forces employing remote, non-removable mines in Kreminna forests (TASS).
Internal Developments:
Crimea: Russian FSB reported detention of alleged operative planning mosque arson, attributed to SBU tasking (TASS).
Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra: Russian sources report representatives of the state reserve, accompanied by police, began actions related to the Near Caves (TASS).
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Large-Scale Ukrainian Drone Operations (Overnight, Mar 27/28):
RU MoD Claim (Confirmed by multiple sources): Interception/destruction of 78 Ukrainian UAVs across eight Russian regions: Voronezh (32), Saratov (19), Kursk (17), Belgorod (6), Lipetsk (2), Rostov (1), Tambov (1).
Voronezh Oblast: Governor confirmed >30 UAVs destroyed. RU MoD claims 32 downed. Minor damage reported.
Ongoing/Recent Russian Activity (as of 05:31 UTC):
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Past 24h - Zaporizhzhia OVA):400 total strikes reported on 13 settlements: 9 aviation, 253 UAV, 13 MLRS, 125 artillery. Damage to civilian housing and infrastructure confirmed. One 19-year-old injured in Zaporizhzhia city night attack.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Evening/Overnight - Dnipropetrovsk OVA):
Artillery, Grad MLRS, kamikaze drones damaged infrastructure in Nikopol, Marhanetska, Pokrovska Hromadas.
Shahed Drone Attacks (Overnight Mar 27/28): Russian sources previously claimed widespread strikes. Confirmed impacts/damage in Poltava Oblast.
Tactical Aviation Threat: Activity remains a concern, particularly for KAB deployment near front lines.
Ukrainian Air Defense:
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: PvK "Skhid" claimed 7 Russian UAVs shot down over the oblast (Dnipropetrovsk OVA).
Confirmed Recent Impacts & Damage (Ukraine):
Poltava Oblast (Shahed Attack, Overnight Mar 27/28): Confirmed damage to warehouses, admin buildings, transformer at 6 locations within Poltava Hromada. Fires extinguished, no casualties reported (Operativno ZSU, RBC-Ukraine). UGS labeled the attack a war crime.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Past 24h): 1 youth injured in Zaporizhzhia city. 7 reports of damage to apartments, private houses, infrastructure across 13 settlements (Zaporizhzhia OVA, ASTRA).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Evening/Overnight): Damage to agricultural enterprise, infrastructure object, and general infrastructure in multiple districts (Dnipropetrovsk OVA).
RU FPV/UAV Use: Russian sources continue to highlight extensive use:
33rd MSR reportedly using drones heavily in Tarasivka (Pokrovsk) (Dva Mayora).
"Vostok" group FPV use in South-Donetsk direction (Colonelcassad).
VDV claims destroying UA vehicles near Chasiv Yar.
Spetsnaz claims destroying UA equipment in South Donetsk.
Claimed destruction of UA "air repeater" drone in Zaporizhzhia direction (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Activity & Claims (Previous):
Crimea Strikes (UA GUR, Mar 27): Claimed successful drone strikes against RU air defense, CPs, tugboat, truck.
Belgorod Bridge Strikes (UA): Confirmed UA aviation destroying bridges in Grafovka and Nadezhivka (RU). Rybar confirms strikes on two bridges near Grafovka.
III. Ground Combat Operations
(Status integrates UGS 20:00 UTC Mar 27, DeepState 22:41 UTC Mar 27, Zaporizhzhia OVA Mar 28, and RU source claims up to 05:31 UTC Mar 28)
MAPP Sudzha: Russian forces confirmed capture and flag raised (RU sources, WarGonzo).
Huyevo / Gogolevka / Oleshnia Area: Russian sources (Rybar, WarGonzo) claim tactical successes near Huyevo (claiming liberation of northern part) and Gogolevka (claiming liberation), and continued push towards Oleshnia. Intense fighting persists.
Belgorod Oblast (Sumy Oblast Border):
Popovka / Demidovka: Continued intense fighting. Rybar provides detailed account: UA forces entered Popovka (Mar 24) via vehicles/foot from Myropillya (UA); temporary UA occupation; heavy fighting involving RU border guards calling fire on themselves; RU reinforcements arrived from Goptarovka; village contested, not fully cleared due to terrain (ravine) and mutual drone interdiction. WarGonzo confirms RU repelling UA attacks near Demidovka and Popovka, notes UA force concentration but continued use of small group probing tactics, speculating UA assessment before potential larger strike.
Prilesye: RU forces claim regaining control, pushing UA forces back (Rybar).
Grafovka Area: No major UA ground push reported, but Rybar confirms UA strikes hit two bridges over Gryazny stream.
Force Posture: Both sides have reportedly deployed reinforcements (Rybar). UA maintains significant forces opposite Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Rybar, WarGonzo).
Bryansk Oblast Border: Russian sources claim large Ukrainian accumulation of forces and equipment near the border, speculating offensive intent (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Kharkiv Direction (Vovchansk): 5 RU assaults repelled near Vovchansk (UGS, Mar 27).
Kupyansk Direction: HIGH INTENSITY. 26 RU assaults (UGS, Mar 27). RU advance previously confirmed near Orlyanske.
Lyman Direction: HIGH INTENSITY / CRITICAL. 32 RU attacks (UGS, Mar 27). Terny assessed largely RU-occupied. RU sources claim advances towards Katerynivka, Nove, south of Yampolivka, and near Novoliubivka—Kolodezi. RU expert claims UA using remote, non-removable mines in Kreminna forests (TASS).
Siversk Direction: 3 RU assaults repelled (UGS, Mar 27). RU claims heavy fighting near Bilohorivka.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar/Bakhmut): 4 RU attempts repelled (UGS, Mar 27). WarGonzo reports ongoing urban/flank fighting but no change in Line of Battle in the past 24 hours. RU VDV previously claimed downing UA heavy drone.
Toretsk Direction: HIGH INTENSITY. 23 RU attacks (UGS, Mar 27). RU advance previously confirmed near Panteleimonivka. RU sources claim fighting near Panteleimonivka, Aleksandropol (Rozivka), Tarasivka. Rybar claims RU forces pushed UA out of Panteleimonivka.
Pokrovsk Direction: HIGHEST INTENSITY. 57 RU assaults (UGS, Mar 27). Significant RU air strikes. Ukrainian forces previously reported pushing back RU forces in lower Kotlyne. RU advance previously confirmed near Katerynivka. RU sources report heavy fighting, including meeting engagements (WarGonzo). RU claims advances in Pishchane and heavy drone use / fighting in Tarasivka (Dva Mayora). RU repelling UA counterattacks near Kotlyne (WarGonzo).
Novopavlivsk Direction (South Donetsk): 10 RU attacks repelled (UGS, Mar 27). RU sources (WarGonzo) claim advances towards Razliv, North of Burlatske, and withinVolne Pole. Fighting near Vesele. RU MoD previously claimed capture of unspecified positions. RU sources claim UAV strikes on UA forces/equipment.
Huliaipole Direction: 9 RU assaults repelled (UGS, Mar 27). Zaporizhzhia OVA reports extensive RU strikes (UAV, MLRS, Arty) on Huliaipole, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Novodarivka over 24h.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 4 RU attacks repelled (UGS, Mar 27). RU sources (WarGonzo) claim RU forces advanced into the central part of Shcherbaky, despite UA counterattacks. Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms RU air, UAV, MLRS, Arty strikes on Kamyanske, Prymorske, Lobkove, Novoandriivka, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka over 24h.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting. Russian sources previously claimed use of aviation against Ukrainian positions on the right bank.
IV. Other Developments
Russian Tactical Innovations: Continued evidence/claims of RU use of small, remote-controlled ground vehicles ("kamikaze robots") and extensive FPV drone operations coordinated with reconnaissance assets (e.g., Pokrovsk direction).
Ukrainian Tactics: Reports of continued cross-border probing attacks (Belgorod). Claim of remote mining with non-removable mines in Kreminna forests (Lyman). Large-scale coordinated deep drone strikes against Russian infrastructure.
Cybersecurity: Ukrzaliznytsia website/app issues persist. Russian Federation Council discussing mandatory vulnerability scanning for Critical Information Infrastructure. Phishing scams targeting Russian citizens noted (Khabarovsk Police).
Information Space:
RU Narratives: Continued focus on alleged UA atrocities/losses (border areas), civilian targeting, framing UA drone strikes as violation/escalation. Highlighting claimed successes (MAPP Sudzha, ground advances, drone downings, UGV use). Promoting narrative of impending major UA offensive (Bryansk buildup claim). Highlighting internal security actions (FSB in Crimea). Reporting on Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra situation.
Ukrainian Narratives: Countering RU claims, highlighting RU casualties (UGS figures) and war crimes (Poltava attack). Highlighting extensive RU strikes and civilian impact (Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk OVAs). Showcasing air defense successes (7 UAVs downed over Dnipro). Documenting damage.
Civilian Impact / Logistics: Repair/assessment activities ongoing in Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk post-attacks. 1 youth injured in Zaporizhzhia. Mandatory evacuations previously expanded near Sumy border.
Russian Internal: FSB arrests in Crimea related to alleged extremism/terrorism. Ongoing low-level incidents (arson, scams, detentions). Lipetsk air threat level lowered. Saratov airport reopened after temporary closure.
International / Political: White House rejected Putin's suggestion of a UN-led temporary administration for Ukraine. US court order regarding Trump admin Signal messages preservation noted (potential precedent). Earthquake in Kazakhstan reported. New RU ambassador presented credentials in US.
[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]
Current Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
