Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 05:00 UTC
(Incorporating information received up to 05:00 UTC)
I. Strategic Overview
Combat Intensity & Main Efforts:
High intensity combat persists across the front. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 195 combat clashes (as of 20:00 UTC, Mar 27).
Significant Russian strikes continue. Over the past day (Mar 27, UGS): 74 aviation strikes (109 KABs), 1123 kamikaze drone attacks, nearly 4800 artillery shelling instances. Russian sources claimed widespread "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes overnight (Mar 27/28).
Large-Scale Ukrainian Drone Campaign (Overnight Mar 27/28): Russian Ministry of Defence (RU MoD) claims interception/destruction of 78 Ukrainian UAVs over eight Russian Oblasts (Voronezh, Saratov, Kursk, Belgorod, Lipetsk, Rostov, Tambov). This confirms a significant, coordinated deep-strike effort by Ukrainian forces. ASTRA news agency highlighted this is a marked increase compared to one drone claimed downed the previous night.
Main Russian Ground Efforts (UGS & RU Sources): Pokrovsk (Highest intensity), Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk directions, and intensified operations along the Kursk/Belgorod border. Incremental Russian advances confirmed near Katerynivka (Pokrovsk), Panteleimonivka (Toretsk), and Orlyanske (Kupyansk) (DeepState, Mar 27). Russian sources (incl. Rybar, Mar 28 04:30 UTC) claim further advances near Huyevo (Sumy border - claim liberation of northern part), Gogolevka (Sumy border - claim liberation), Katerynivka/Nove (Lyman), South of Yampolivka (Lyman), Novoliubivka—Kolodezi (Lyman), Pishchane (Pokrovsk), within Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia), and claim pushing UA forces fromPanteleimonivka (Toretsk).
Kursk Border Crossing Point: Russian forces (VDV) confirmed secure and raised the Russian flag over the MAPP Sudzha international checkpoint (Multiple RU sources).
Russian Stance & Intentions:
Putin maintains rhetoric focused on negotiation terms favorable to Russia, questioning Ukrainian leadership legitimacy, and proposing a temporary UN-led administration. Claims of strategic initiative and predicted victory persist.
Russia continues attempts to frame the narrative, claiming Ukraine violated the alleged energy strike moratorium and escalating via deep drone strikes (Dva Mayora).
Russian internal focus on strengthening Critical Information Infrastructure (CII) security noted.
Indications persist of Russian preparations for potential offensives towards Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. CinC Syrskyi previously confirmed Russian efforts to extend combat into Sumy Oblast.
Naval Posture (Black Sea): As of morning Mar 28, the Ukrainian Navy reports 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier deployed in the Black Sea with a potential salvo of up to 4 missiles. No Russian warships reported in the Sea of Azov (RBC-Ukraine, UA Navy).
Diplomacy & International Support:
EU (Post-Paris Meeting): Continued commitment to increased aid, sanctions, and strengthening European defense.
International Aid: Czech initiative targets 1.5 million shells (2025). Netherlands accelerated delivery (€2bn for 2025). France (€2bn package, troops to Romania). Ramstein meeting April 11.
UA-US Security Agreement: Concerns remain regarding potential drafts linked to the Trump administration.
Black Sea Understanding: UA MFA reiterates applicability only to civil shipping/ports.
US-Russia Relations: New Russian Ambassador Darchiev presented credentials to US State Dept representatives (TASS, Mar 28 04:05 UTC).
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Large-Scale Ukrainian Drone Operations (Overnight, Mar 27/28):
RU MoD Claim (04:28 UTC, reiterated by multiple sources): Interception/destruction of 78 Ukrainian UAVs across eight Russian regions:
Voronezh Oblast: 32 UAVs
Saratov Oblast: 19 UAVs
Kursk Oblast: 17 UAVs
Belgorod Oblast: 6 UAVs
Lipetsk Oblast: 2 UAVs
Rostov Oblast: 1 UAV
Tambov Oblast: 1 UAV
Engels Airfield / Saratov Oblast, Russia:
Impacts/Interceptions: Residents reported >30 explosions overnight (ASTRA). Russian sources claim ~10 UAVs destroyed (Dva Mayora, citing SHOT), targeting an oil refinery and potentially the Engels strategic bomber airfield. RU MoD claims 19 UAVs downed over the oblast.
Governor confirmed >30 UAVs destroyed overnight across five municipalities. RU MoD claims 32 UAVs downed.
No casualties or significant damage reported by RU Governor; minor grass fire extinguished (Governor via Dva Mayora, TASS, Mar 28 04:13 / 04:19 UTC). Air threat alert remained active post-attack.
Ongoing/Recent Russian Activity (as of 05:00 UTC):
Tactical Aviation Threat (North-East): UA Air Force warning for Russian tactical aviation activity remained active earlier, posing a threat of air strikes (likely KABs) to front-line oblasts, particularly Sumy.
Shahed Drone Attacks (Overnight Mar 27/28): Russian sources (Dva Mayora) claimed widespread Shahed ("Geran") strikes across multiple Ukrainian Oblasts. Requires further correlation with official Ukrainian reports.
Confirmed Recent Impacts & Damage (Ukraine):
Poltava Oblast (Shahed Attack, Overnight Mar 27/28):
UGS labeled the attack targeting civilian infrastructure, residential areas, and oil/gas admin buildings a war crime (Operativno ZSU, Mar 28 04:21 UTC).
Poltava OVA confirmed impacts/falling debris at 6 locations within the Poltava Hromada damaged warehouse premises, administrative buildings, and a transformer at one enterprise. Fires covering over 2500 sq. meters were extinguished by 04:00 UTC. No casualties reported (Operativno ZSU, RBC-Ukraine, Mar 28 04:37/04:41 UTC). Images show significant structural damage and firefighting efforts.
Zaporizhzhia City (Night Attack, Mar 27/28): Confirmed impact resulted in one 19-year-old injured. Blast wave/debris damaged windows in multiple buildings (Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Energy Infrastructure: At least 2 Russian strikes damaged energy infrastructure in the 24 hours preceding 03:26 UTC, Mar 28 (UA Presidential Advisor Lytvyn via ASTRA).
Claimed UA "Baba Yaga" Drone Downed: Russian VDV forces (217th Reg) claim shooting down a Ukrainian heavy bomber drone near Chasiv Yar (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Claimed UA "Air Repeater" Drone Downed: RU forces claim destroying a Ukrainian air repeater drone in the Zaporizhzhia direction (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Mar 28 05:00 UTC).
Claimed Strikes (RU Sources): Missile strike near Oleshnia (Kursk border); destruction of UA field ammo depot (NAR); airstrikes near Mala Tokmachka (Orikhiv); Lancet strike on D-30 near Senkove (Kupyansk); RPG strike on tank. Use of ground-based "kamikaze robots" (UGVs) reported. Claimed destruction of UA personnel/equipment in South-Donetsk direction by 35th Army UAVs (Voin DV, Mar 28 04:15 UTC). RU MoD video shows FPV drone use by "Vostok" group in South-Donetsk, highlighting coordination with recon drones and workshop/simulation aspects (Colonelcassad, Mar 28 04:36 UTC).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Activity & Claims (Previous):
Crimea Strikes (UA GUR, Mar 27): Claimed successful drone strikes against RU air defense, CPs, tugboat, truck.
Belgorod Bridge Strikes (UA): Confirmed UA aviation destroying bridges in Grafovka and Nadezhivka (RU).
Russian Internal Air Threat Status (Summary of Overnight UA UAV Attack):
Saratov Oblast:Saratov Airport closed. Reports of explosions (>30) and sirens. RU MoD claims 19 UAVs downed. RU source claims ~10 UAVs downed targeting refinery/airfield.
Voronezh Oblast: RU MoD claims 32 UAVs downed. Governor confirms >30 downed, no major damage. Air threat alert persisted.
MAPP Sudzha: Russian forces (VDV) confirmed capture and flag raised (RU sources).
Huyevo / Gogolevka Area: Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Rybar Mar 28 04:30 UTC) claim chaotic Ukrainian retreat near Huyevo; claim RU forces entered N/E Huyevo. Rybar claims liberation of northern Huyevo and Gogolevka. Fighting near Basovka, Gogolevka, Huyevo, Sudzha crossing, Oleshnia continues. Rybar claims ongoing battles near Oleshnia.
Intensity remains high with heavy RU artillery/air strikes.
Belgorod Oblast:
Continued RU defensive operations. Ukrainian presence claimed near Demidovka and Popovka, with RU sources claiming multiple UA assaults repelled (Dva Mayora). Rybar describes meeting engagements by small groups in Popovka and Demidovka.
Russian sources report Ukrainian reserve accumulation. Continued shelling and drone attacks impacting RU settlements.
Mandatory evacuation expanded deeper into Krasnopilskyi Raion, Sumy Oblast (Osoyivka, Khmelivka, etc.).
Kharkiv Direction (Vovchansk): 5 RU assaults repelled near Vovchansk (UGS, Mar 27).
Kupyansk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 26 RU assaults (UGS, Mar 27). RU advance confirmed near Orlyanske (DeepState, Mar 27). RU Claim: Lancet strike near Senkove.
Lyman Direction:HIGH INTENSITY / CRITICAL. 32 RU attacks (UGS, Mar 27). Terny assessed largely RU-occupied (DeepState). RU sources claim advance towards Katerynivka and Nove (Dva Mayora). RU claims advance south of Yampolivka (Dva Mayora) and near Novoliubivka—Kolodezi (Rybar, Mar 28 04:30 UTC).
Siversk Direction: 3 RU assaults repelled (UGS, Mar 27). RU claims heavy fighting near Bilohorivka (Dva Mayora).
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar/Bakhmut): 4 RU attempts repelled (UGS, Mar 27). RU claim VDV shot down UA heavy drone near Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 23 RU attacks (UGS, Mar 27). RU advance confirmed near Panteleimonivka (DeepState, Mar 27). RU sources claim fighting near Panteleimonivka, Aleksandropol (Rozivka), Tarasivka (Dva Mayora). Rybar claims RU forces pushed UA out of Panteleimonivka (Mar 28 04:30 UTC).
Pokrovsk Direction:HIGHEST INTENSITY. 57 RU assaults (UGS, Mar 27). Significant RU air strikes. Ukrainian forces reportedly pushed back RU forces in lower Kotlyne. RU advance confirmed near Katerynivka (DeepState, Mar 27). RU sources report Ukrainian counterattacks in Kotlyne and Russian advances in Pishchane (Dva Mayora). RU claims fighting in Tarasivka.
Novopavlivsk Direction (South Donetsk): 10 RU attacks repelled (UGS, Mar 27). RU claims advances in several settlements. RU MoD claims capture of unspecified positions. RU sources claim UAV strikes on UA forces/equipment (Voin DV, Mar 28 04:15 UTC). Video evidence of RU FPV drone use in this direction (Colonelcassad, Mar 28 04:36 UTC).
Huliaipole Direction: 9 RU assaults repelled (UGS, Mar 27).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 4 RU attacks repelled (UGS, Mar 27). RU sources claim storming Shcherbaky, with RU paratroopers occupying buildings in the eastern part (Dva Mayora). RU claim heavy airstrikes near Mala Tokmachka. Rybar mentions RU operations. RU claim destroying UA "air repeater" drone (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Mar 28 05:00 UTC).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting. Russian sources claim use of aviation against Ukrainian positions on the right bank (Dva Mayora).
IV. Other Developments
Russian Tactical Innovations: Continued evidence/claims of RU use of small, remote-controlled ground vehicles ("kamikaze robots") and extensive FPV drone operations coordinated with reconnaissance assets.
Cybersecurity: Ukrzaliznytsia website/app issues persist. Russian Federation Council discussing mandatory vulnerability scanning for Critical Information Infrastructure (TASS).
Information Space:
RU Narratives: Continued focus on alleged UA atrocities, civilian targeting, refugee return decline, religious site targeting. Highlighting claimed successes (MAPP Sudzha capture, advances, drone downings, UGV use). Framing UA drone strikes as violation of agreements/escalation (Dva Mayora). Claiming liberation of border settlements (Rybar). Showcasing resilience against UA border attacks (TASS video).
Ukrainian Narratives: Countering RU claims, highlighting RU casualties and war crimes (Poltava attack via UGS/Operativno ZSU). Highlighting energy infrastructure damage. Showcasing resilience and human cost. Highlighting confirmed successes (Belgorod bridge strikes, air defense). Documenting RU war crimes.
Civilian Impact / Logistics: Repair/assessment activities ongoing in Zaporizhzhia and Poltava post-attacks. Mandatory evacuations expanded near Sumy border.
Russian Internal: Proposals for mandatory CII vulnerability scanning. Lipetsk air threat level lowered. Saratov airport closed temporarily. Large number of UAVs reportedly downed over multiple regions. Ongoing low-level incidents (arson, scams, detentions).
International / Economic: Reports of South Korean firms exploring return to Russia. New RU ambassador presents credentials in US. US court order for Trump admin to preserve Signal messages related to Yemen strikes (potential precedent for record keeping) (ASTRA, Mar 28 04:50 UTC). Natural disaster (earthquake) reported in Kazakhstan (TASS).
