Military Situation Update: March 28, 2025, 04:30 UTC
(Incorporating information received up to 04:30 UTC)
I. Strategic Overview
Combat Intensity & Main Efforts:
High intensity combat persists across the front. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 195 combat clashes (as of 20:00 UTC, Mar 27).
Significant Russian strikes continue. Over the past day (Mar 27, UGS): 74 aviation strikes (109 KABs), 1123 kamikaze drone attacks, nearly 4800 artillery shelling instances. Russian sources claimed widespread "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes overnight (Mar 27/28).
Large-Scale Ukrainian Drone Campaign (Overnight Mar 27/28): Russian Ministry of Defence (RU MoD) claims interception/destruction of 78 Ukrainian UAVs over multiple Russian Oblasts. This indicates a significant coordinated deep-strike effort by Ukrainian forces.
Main Russian Ground Efforts (UGS & RU Sources): Pokrovsk (Highest intensity), Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk directions, and intensified operations along the Kursk/Belgorod border. Incremental Russian advances confirmed near Katerynivka (Pokrovsk), Panteleimonivka (Toretsk), and Orlyanske (Kupyansk) (DeepState, Mar 27). Russian sources (incl. Rybar) claim further advances near Huyevo (Sumy border - claim liberation of northern part), Gogolevka (Sumy border - claim liberation), Katerynivka/Nove (Lyman), South of Yampolivka (Lyman), Novoliubivka—Kolodezi (Lyman), Pishchane (Pokrovsk), within Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia), and claim pushing UA forces fromPanteleimonivka (Toretsk).
Kursk Border Crossing Point: Russian forces (VDV) confirmed secure and raised the Russian flag over the MAPP Sudzha international checkpoint (Multiple RU sources).
Russian Stance & Intentions:
Putin maintains rhetoric focused on negotiation terms favorable to Russia, questioning Ukrainian leadership legitimacy, and proposing a temporary UN-led administration. Claims of strategic initiative and predicted victory persist.
Russia continues attempts to frame the narrative, claiming Ukraine violated the alleged energy strike moratorium (contradicting earlier focus on non-energy targets) and escalating via deep drone strikes (Dva Mayora).
Russian internal focus on strengthening Critical Information Infrastructure (CII) security noted, with proposals for mandatory vulnerability scanning and penalties (TASS).
Indications persist of Russian preparations for potential offensives towards Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. CinC Syrskyi previously confirmed Russian efforts to extend combat into Sumy Oblast.
Diplomacy & International Support:
EU (Post-Paris Meeting): Continued commitment to increased aid (military/financial), pressure on Russia (sanctions), and strengthening European defense (potential joint procurement).
International Aid: Czech initiative targets 1.5 million shells (2025). Netherlands accelerated delivery (€2bn for 2025). France (€2bn package, troops to Romania). Ramstein meeting April 11.
UA-US Security Agreement: Concerns remain regarding potential drafts linked to the Trump administration.
Black Sea Understanding: UA MFA reiterates applicability only to civil shipping/ports.
US-Russia Relations: New Russian Ambassador Darchiev presented credentials to US State Dept representatives (TASS).
Russian Force Developments:
Naval: Yasen-M sub "Perm" launched. Deputy Commander appointed.
Marines: Reorganization into divisions announced previously.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Large-Scale Ukrainian Drone Operations (Overnight, Mar 27/28):
RU MoD Claim (04:28 UTC): Interception/destruction of 78 Ukrainian UAVs across eight Russian regions:
Voronezh Oblast: 32 UAVs
Saratov Oblast: 19 UAVs
Kursk Oblast: 17 UAVs
Belgorod Oblast: 6 UAVs
Lipetsk Oblast: 2 UAVs
Rostov Oblast: 1 UAV
Tambov Oblast: 1 UAV
Engels Airfield / Saratov Oblast, Russia:
Impacts/Interceptions: Residents reported >30 explosions overnight (ASTRA). Russian sources claim ~10 UAVs destroyed (Dva Mayora, citing SHOT), targeting an oil refinery and potentially the Engels strategic bomber airfield. RU MoD claims 19 UAVs downed over the oblast.
Governor confirmed >30 UAVs destroyed overnight across five municipalities. RU MoD claims 32 UAVs downed.
No casualties or significant damage reported; minor grass fire from falling debris extinguished (Governor via Dva Mayora, TASS).
Ongoing/Recent Russian Activity (as of 04:30 UTC):
Tactical Aviation Threat (North-East): UA Air Force (03:17 UTC) warning remains active for Russian tactical aviation activity, posing a threat of air strikes (likely KABs) to front-line oblasts, particularly Sumy.
Shahed Drone Attacks (Overnight): Russian sources (Dva Mayora) claim widespread Shahed ("Geran") strikes across Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, and Poltava Oblasts. Requires correlation with official Ukrainian reports on interceptions and impacts.
Confirmed Recent Impacts & Damage (Ukraine):
Poltava Oblast (Shahed Attack, Mar 27): UGS labeled the attack targeting civilian infrastructure, residential areas, and oil/gas admin buildings a war crime (Operativno ZSU, 04:21 UTC). Damage to warehouse confirmed; no casualties reported yet (Poltava OVA).
Zaporizhzhia City (Night Attack, Mar 27/28): Confirmed impact resulted in one 19-year-old injured. Blast wave/debris damaged windows in multiple buildings (Zaporizhzhia OVA). Repair activities observed.
Energy Infrastructure: At least 2 Russian strikes damaged energy infrastructure in the 24 hours preceding 03:26 UTC, Mar 28 (UA Presidential Advisor Lytvyn via ASTRA).
Claimed UA "Baba Yaga" Drone Downed: Russian VDV forces (217th Reg) claim shooting down a Ukrainian heavy bomber drone near Chasiv Yar (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Claimed Strikes (RU Sources): Missile strike near Oleshnia (Kursk border); destruction of UA field ammo depot (NAR); airstrikes near Mala Tokmachka (Orikhiv); Lancet strike on D-30 near Senkove (Kupyansk); RPG strike on tank (context unclear). Use of ground-based "kamikaze robots" (UGVs) carrying mines/shells reported for attacking Ukrainian positions (Colonelcassad video). Claimed destruction of UA personnel/equipment in South-Donetsk direction by 35th Army UAVs (Voin DV).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Activity & Claims (Previous):
Crimea Strikes (UA GUR, Mar 27): Claimed successful drone strikes against RU air defense, CPs, tugboat, truck.
Belgorod Bridge Strikes (UA): Confirmed UA aviation destroying bridges in Grafovka and Nadezhivka (RU).
Russian Internal Air Threat Status:
Saratov Oblast:Saratov Airport closed. Reports of explosions (>30) and sirens overnight (ASTRA). RU MoD claims 19 UAVs downed. RU source Dva Mayora claims ~10 UAVs downed targeting refinery/airfield.
Voronezh Oblast: RU MoD claims 32 UAVs downed. Governor confirms >30 downed, no major damage. Air threat alert ongoing (Dva Mayora).
Kursk Oblast: RU MoD claims 17 UAVs downed.
Belgorod Oblast: RU MoD claims 6 UAVs downed.
Lipetsk Oblast: RU MoD claims 2 UAVs downed. "Yellow" level (Air Danger) threat canceled as of 03:52 UTC (Governor Artamonov).
Rostov Oblast: RU MoD claims 1 UAV downed. Earlier report (morning) of UAV suppressed by EW, no casualties.
Tambov Oblast: RU MoD claims 1 UAV downed.
III. Ground Combat Operations
(Status integrates UGS 20:00 UTC Mar 27, DeepState 22:41 UTC Mar 27, and RU source claims up to 04:30 UTC Mar 28)
MAPP Sudzha: Russian forces (VDV) confirmed capture and raised flag over the checkpoint (RU sources: Dva Mayora, Dnevnik Desantnika, Rybar).
Huyevo / Gogolevka Area: Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Rybar) claim chaotic Ukrainian retreat near Huyevo under pressure. Claim RU forces entered northern/eastern streets of Huyevo, clearing forests. Rybar claims liberation of northern Huyevo and Gogolevka. Fighting previously reported near Basovka, Gogolevka, Huyevo, Sudzha crossing, Oleshnia. RU sources claim clearing a pocket near Basovka. Rybar claims ongoing battles near Oleshnia.
Intensity remains high with heavy RU artillery/air strikes.
Belgorod Oblast:
Continued RU defensive operations reported. Ukrainian presence claimed near Demidovka and Popovka, with RU sources claiming multiple UA assaults repelled (3 near Demidovka, 6 near Popovka) (Dva Mayora). Rybar describes meeting engagements by small groups in Popovka and Demidovka.
Russian sources report Ukrainian reserve accumulation near the line of contact. Claim 9 UA attempts to infiltrate Krasnoyaruzhsky district repelled. RU sources claim UA retains significant offensive potential.
Continued shelling and drone attacks impacting RU border settlements (Belyanka, Nechaevka, Tishanka, Shakhovka, Smorodino, Kukuyevka). Claimed UA drone attack on civilian vehicle near Masichevo-Grayvoron road.
Mandatory evacuation expanded deeper into Krasnopilskyi Raion, Sumy Oblast (Osoyivka, Khmelivka, etc.) indicating perceived threat.
Kharkiv Direction (Vovchansk): 5 RU assaults repelled near Vovchansk (UGS, Mar 27).
Kupyansk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 26 RU assaults (UGS, Mar 27). RU advance confirmed near Orlyanske (DeepState, Mar 27). RU Claim: Lancet strike on UA D-30 near Senkove. RU Claim: UA DRG destroyed near Holubivka.
Lyman Direction:HIGH INTENSITY / CRITICAL. 32 RU attacks (UGS, Mar 27). Terny assessed largely RU-occupied (DeepState). RU sources claim Ukrainian side acknowledges RU advance towards Katerynivka (up to 2.1km) and continued attacks towards Katerynivka and Nove (Dva Mayora). RU sources also claim advance south of Yampolivka (Dva Mayora) and near Novoliubivka—Kolodezi (Rybar).
Siversk Direction: 3 RU assaults repelled (UGS, Mar 27). RU sources claim heavy fighting near Bilohorivka (Dva Mayora).
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar/Bakhmut): 4 RU attempts repelled (UGS, Mar 27). RU claim VDV shot down UA heavy drone ("Baba Yaga") near Chasiv Yar (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Toretsk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 23 RU attacks (UGS, Mar 27). RU advance confirmed near Panteleimonivka (DeepState, Mar 27). RU sources claim fighting near Panteleimonivka, Aleksandropol (Rozivka), and Tarasivka (Dva Mayora). Rybar claims RU forces pushed UA out of Panteleimonivka.
Pokrovsk Direction:HIGHEST INTENSITY. 57 RU assaults (UGS, Mar 27). Significant RU air strikes. Ukrainian forces reportedly pushed back RU forces in lower Kotlyne. RU advance confirmed near Katerynivka (DeepState, Mar 27). RU sources report Ukrainian counterattacks in Kotlyne and Russian advances in Pishchane (Dva Mayora). RU claims fighting in Tarasivka east of Pokrovsk (Dva Mayora).
Novopavlivsk Direction (South Donetsk): 10 RU attacks repelled (UGS, Mar 27). RU claims advances in several settlements (Vilne Pole, Burlatske etc.). RU MoD claims capture of unspecified positions. RU sources claim UAV strikes on UA forces/equipment (Voin DV).
Huliaipole Direction: 9 RU assaults repelled (UGS, Mar 27).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 4 RU attacks repelled (UGS, Mar 27). RU sources claim storming Shcherbaky, with RU paratroopers occupying buildings in the eastern part against Ukrainian counteractions (Dva Mayora). RU claim heavy airstrikes near Mala Tokmachka. Rybar mentions RU operations in this area.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting. Russian sources claim use of aviation against Ukrainian positions on the right bank (Dva Mayora). Rybar notes ongoing situation.
IV. Other Developments
Russian Tactical Innovations: Video evidence shared by Russian sources (Colonelcassad) demonstrates the use of small, remote-controlled ground vehicles ("kamikaze robots") to deliver mines/explosives directly into Ukrainian shelters. Claimed payload 6-10 shells, fiber optic/radio control.
Cybersecurity: Ukrzaliznytsia website/app issues persist. Russian Federation Council discussing mandatory vulnerability scanning for Critical Information Infrastructure (TASS). Reports of distance fraud/scams persist in Russia (Police Khabarovsk Krai).
Information Space:
RU Narratives: Continued focus on alleged UA atrocities (Kursk), civilian targeting (Horlivka), and amplifying refugee return decline. Intensified claims of UA targeting religious sites (Kursk priest video). Highlighting claimed successes (MAPP Sudzha capture, advances, Baba Yaga downing, UGV use). New: Framing overnight UA drone strikes as violation of agreements/escalation (Dva Mayora). Claiming liberation of border settlements (Rybar). Showcasing alleged foreign mercenary casualties (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). Highlighting resilience against UA border attacks (TASS video).
Ukrainian Narratives: Countering RU claims, highlighting RU casualties and war crimes (Poltava attack via UGS/Operativno ZSU). Highlighting energy infrastructure damage and partner responsibility (Lytvyn). Showcasing resilience and human cost (soldier doll symbolism). Highlighting confirmed successes (Belgorod bridge strikes, air defense). Documenting RU war crimes for international institutions (UGS).
Civilian Impact / Logistics: Repair/assessment activities ongoing in Zaporizhzhia post-attack. Mandatory evacuations expanded near Sumy border. RU claims civilian casualties in Horlivka (DNR).
Russian Internal: Proposals for mandatory CII vulnerability scanning. Lipetsk air threat level lowered. Saratov airport closed temporarily. Large number of UAVs reportedly downed over multiple regions. Ongoing low-level incidents (arson, scams, detentions). Kursk priests reportedly seeking medical help due to stress (TASS propaganda narrative).
International / Economic: Xi Jinping met foreign CEOs. Reports of South Korean firms exploring return to Russia. Russian ambassador links sanctions removal to improved SK relations (TASS). New RU ambassador presents credentials in US. Court orders Trump admin to preserve Signal messages related to Yemen strikes (CNN via RBC-Ukraine).
V. Previous Situation Summaries (Highlights from Mar 25-27)
Persistent high combat intensity, particularly Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Kupyansk, and border areas.
Extensive use of KABs and drones by Russia remains a defining feature.
