Military Situation Update: March 27, 2025, 20:30 UTC
I. Strategic Overview
Combat Intensity & Main Efforts:
High intensity combat continues across the front. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 195 combat clashes as of 20:00 UTC (22:00 local time) on Mar 27.
Over the day, Russian forces conducted 74 aviation strikes (using 109 KABs), 1123 kamikaze drone attacks, and nearly 4800 artillery shelling instances (UGS).
Main Russian Ground Efforts (UGS): Pokrovsk (Highest intensity), Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk directions. Intensified operations persist along the Kursk/Belgorod border.
Russian Offensive Preparations & Intentions:
Ongoing Russian preparations for renewed offensive operations targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are indicated. President Zelenskyy assesses Russia is delaying negotiations to facilitate further territorial gains.
Force Posture Assessment (UA): Forces for potential Russian Kharkiv/Sumy offensives unlikely drawn from Kursk due to sustained Ukrainian pressure. CinC Syrskyi confirms Russian efforts to extend combat operations into Sumy Oblast. North Korean troop involvement remains possible (~3,000 claimed sent Jan-Feb 2025).
International Military Support & Planning:
Czech Initiative: Aims to deliver at least 1.5 million artillery shells to Ukraine in 2025 (Reuters citing PM Fiala).
Netherlands Aid: Accelerated delivery confirmed; €2bn planned for delivery in 2025.
French Aid: €2bn package confirmed; 300 troops deploying to Romania.
Ramstein Format: Next meeting scheduled for April 11.
Potential Foreign Contingents: Discussions ongoing. Italy confirmed no troop deployment but supports future talks. DE/EE open to post-ceasefire peacekeeping under specific conditions.
Diplomacy & Negotiations:
Black Sea Ceasefire Understanding: UA MFA Spokesperson clarified the understanding applies to civil shipping/ports, not Russian military warships. Movement beyond specified areas is considered a violation.
US-Russia Dialogue: Contacts continue; potential second round in Riyadh mid-April (TASS). US FinMin official confirmed considering SWIFT return/sanctions relief as part of settlement (Fox News).
UA-US Security Agreement/Subsoil Resources: Discussions reported regarding potential draft agreement linked to Donald Trump, potentially granting US significant control over Ukrainian resources/reconstruction funds, requiring aid repayment. High strategic significance.
Russian Force Generation & Internal: Launch of Yasen-M submarine "Perm" (first designated Tsirkon carrier) and visit to "Arkhangelsk" sub by Putin emphasizes naval power projection. Putin stated Russia will maintain powerful naval status. Deployment of "Akhmat" volunteers continues.
Ukrainian Mobilization & Reorganization: Focus remains on forming new Army Corps.
Internal Security (Ukraine): SBU detained organized crime group targeting civilians/military. Power outage reported in Kyiv's Pechersk district (73 buildings) due to cable failure (RBC-Ukraine).
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Active UAV Threats (As of 20:27 UTC):
Large-Scale Shahed Attack Ongoing: Multiple groups active across Ukraine. Air raid alerts remain active in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv Oblasts (Colonelcassad, UA Air Force).
Movement Vectors (Updated 20:02 UTC - Mykolaivskyi Vanek):
5 near Novyi Buh -> Kirovohrad Oblast.
2 W of Kryvyi Rih -> West.
1 approaching Kryvyi Rih.
3 Dnipropetrovsk -> Poltava Oblast.
2 S of Smila (Cherkasy) -> West.
1 N of Cherkasy -> West.
1 near Myrhorod (Poltava).
1 W of Sumy.
3 towards/through Pryluky (Chernihiv).
2 towards/through Nizhyn (Chernihiv).
1 near Poltava.
Impacts/Interceptions:
Poltava: Explosion heard, followed by power outages (RBC-Ukraine, 20:27 UTC).
Zaporizhzhia City/Oblast (Aftermath): Fires from earlier drone attack being liquidated. One 19-year-old male injured, stable condition. House in Kushuhum and dacha house in Zaporizhzhia city destroyed by blast wave/debris. Photos confirm damage to residential structures (Zaporizhzhia OVA, RBC-Ukraine).
5 UAVs downed over Kursk/Belgorod (19:00-19:45 MSK / 16:00-16:45 UTC).
9 UAVs downed over Voronezh/Belgorod (20:50-22:00 MSK / 17:50-19:00 UTC).
Earlier: Several UAVs downed over Voronezh Oblast (RU Gov).
Targeting Claim (RU MoD, 20:26 UTC): Claimed engagement of 157 concentration areas of UA manpower and military hardware via aviation, drones, missiles, and artillery (#DailyFigure).
Drone Operations Showcased: FPV drone teams (Vostok Group) in South Donetsk; "Upyr" FPV strikes; "Courier" UGV firing PKT MG during training (Videos).
Alleged UA Strikes on RU Energy (RU Claim - Rybar): UA allegedly attempted strikes on Crimea gas storage and Bryansk/Kursk power lines (Mar 26-27), despite moratorium.
Ukrainian Air/Drone Activity & Claims:
Crimea Strikes (UA GUR, Mar 27): Successful drone strikes reported targeting multiple Russian air defense radars (Podlyot, Imbir, ST-68, Kasta-2E2), command posts, a tugboat ("Fedor Uryupin"), and a truck.
Counter-Drone: UA 63rd Brigade downed 5 RU drones (Lyman direction). FPV drone used to down Zala Kub drone. "Baba Yaga" drone night ops reported (63rd Bde). "Ochi ta Zhalo" claim 369 targets hit, 106 RU KIA in Donbas (Mar 24-26).
Offensive Drone Use: Continued reports of FPV use across frontlines. Fundraising appeals persist (e.g., 55th Btn/63rd Bde for pickup/EW; Sternenko). Video claims RU soldier suicide after UA drone VOG drop (Kurakhove direction).
Shelling Impact:
Kherson (Right Bank): Heavy shelling continues. 2 civilians killed, 6 injured (incl. 2 medics) due to RU shelling/drones (Mar 27). Secondary strike targeted medics. Strike hit Kherson railway station.
Naval Activity: 1 Russian Kalibr carrier (up to 4 missiles) active in Black Sea. Russia launched Yasen-M submarine "Perm" (designated Tsirkon carrier for Pacific Fleet); Putin visited Yasen-M sub "Arkhangelsk".
Kursk Direction (UGS, 20:00 UTC): 18 combat clashes reported during the day. RU conducted 349 artillery attacks (19 MLRS), 20 air strikes (23 KABs). UA forces (31st Mech Bde, 79th Border Guard Det, 82nd & 95th Air Assault Bdes cited) reportedly repelling attacks under difficult conditions.
Kursk Oblast (RU Claims/Activity): RU forces secured MAPP Sudzha border checkpoint building (51st PDP flag confirmed). Hoholiivka claimed cleared. Advances claimed towards Oleshnia. Consolidation claimed in N. Huyevo. Fighting ongoing near Basovka, Gogolevka, Huyevo, Sudzha crossing, Oleshnia. RU sources report extensive mining near Guevo requiring sapper work. Video released showing RU "Rubikon" unit drone strikes targeting UA equipment (Bus, Van, BTR, BATT UMG, HMMWV, AHS Krab, Mortar, Artillery) and personnel in Kursk direction (Colonelcassad, 20:12 UTC).
Belgorod Oblast (RU Claims - Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 20:01 UTC): RU sources claim higher UA activity compared to Kursk. UA presence claimed maintained in Popovka (difficult to defend due to terrain) and Demidovka (using small groups, houses for cover). RU claims intense artillery/FPV targeting of these locations. RU alleges UA airstrikes hit bridges in Grafovka and Annovka (indicating intent to move towards Grafovka-Annovka line, disrupting RU logistics). RU claims UA reserves remain present across border.
Sumy Oblast (UA): CinC Syrskyi confirms RU efforts to expand combat into Sumy Oblast. Mandatory evacuation ordered for Osoivka, Khmelivka, Vesele, Lozove (Krasnopillia community).
Kharkiv Direction (Vovchansk): 5 RU assaults repelled near Vovchansk (UGS, 20:00 UTC). UA 57th Brigade continues holding western Vovchansk against RU infiltration/shelling.
Kupyansk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 26 RU assaults reported (UGS, 20:00 UTC). Axes: Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Nova Kruhliakivka, Bohuslavka. 2 clashes ongoing. RU forces advanced near Pishchane (DeepState, Mar 26). UA repelled RU forces at Kotlyne (DeepState, Mar 26).
Terny: Assessed as almost fully occupied by RU forces, situation worsening (DeepState, Mar 27). RU reportedly advancing SE towards Yampilivka logistics.
RU Claims (Rybar, Dnevnik Desantnika - Mar 27): Significant advances W. of Novoliubivka, offensive towards Katerynivka (outskirts reached). Advances near Novoliubivka-Kolodezi line (positions N of Kolodezi captured). Expanded control near Nevske/Novoliubivka. Fighting near Nadiia. Advances N of Ivanivka (~4km) and towards Myrne (1.5km).
UA 63rd Brigade / 55th Btn: Active in Serebryansky Forest, requesting support (pickup, EW).
Siversk Direction: 3 RU assaults repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske (UGS, 20:00 UTC). RU claims advances towards Hryhorivka and S of Verkhnokamyanske.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar/Bakhmut): 4 RU attempts repelled near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne (UGS, 20:00 UTC). Heavy fighting, RU 98th VDV active. UA 24th Bde ("Rarog") using thermal FPVs.
UA Claims (UGS, 20:00 UTC): Approx. 298 RU personnel neutralized (183 KIA) in this direction today. Destroyed: 14 vehicles, 4 motorcycles, 5 BMPs, 3 ATVs, 5 UAVs, 1 EW system, 1 mortar. Damaged: 4 vehicles, 2 motorcycles, 1 howitzer, 2 guns.
Uspenivka: Situation difficult but controlled. RU continues assaults with light vehicles, UA inflicts losses via drones (~20 KIA daily claimed) and maintains fire control (DeepState UA, Mar 27). RU attempts towards Novooleksandrivka noted.
RU Claims (Voin DV, Mar 27): RU "Vostok" group advancing near Rozlyv (1.5-2km, cleared 3 treelines), Vesele (0.5km), Vilne Pole – Novosilka area (1km, 3 treelines). Fighting in S. outskirts of Vilne Pole.
Huliaipole Direction: 9 RU assaults repelled near Pryvilne, Novosilka, towards Vilne Pole (UGS, 20:00 UTC). RU claims broke through into Vilne Pole.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 4 RU attacks repelled towards Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Kam'yanske (UGS, 20:00 UTC). RU claims advance >2.5km E of Kam'yanske, reaching Shcherbaky. RU forces advanced near Enerhodar/ZNPP area (DeepState, Mar 26).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): No active RU offensive actions reported by UGS (20:00 UTC). Positional fighting continues.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): Ukraine requested IAEA verification of reported diesel tank damage; Russia denies.
Cybersecurity/Information Assurance:
Ukrzaliznytsia website/app remain non-functional (4th day) due to cyberattack; ticket procedures adjusted (RBC-Ukraine).
US court reportedly temporarily restored funding for RFE/RL despite Trump admin efforts (RU sources). Potential leak of US security officials' data persists (RU sources).
Alleged deficiencies in UA "Novator" vehicles circulated by RU sources (Requires verification).
Logistics/Support:
UA fundraising appeals continue (63rd Bde, Sternenko).
RU fundraising appeals noted ("Frontovaya Bronya" for vehicle armor, MOO Veche for various supplies).
Russia-Related: Putin attended Arctic Forum, highlighting NATO threat. Law advancing to remove foreign language signs in Moscow. Russia raised Moldovan politician Gutsul's detention at UNSC.
Journalist Safety: UNESCO condemned killing of RU journalists. RU journalist Prokofieva killed near Demidovka (Belgorod).
