Military Situation Update: March 27, 2025, 20:01 UTC
I. Strategic Overview
Russian Offensive Preparations & Intentions:
Intelligence indicates ongoing Russian preparations for renewed offensive operations, primarily targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. President Zelenskyy assesses Russia is delaying negotiations to facilitate further territorial gains.
Russian sources amplify claims (citing alleged UA sources or 'underground' contacts) regarding ambitious Russian objectives (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odesa for land bridge) and alleged Ukrainian plans for major offensives (Mykolaiv->Crimea, Zaporizhzhia->Berdiansk, Belgorod Oblast incursion). These claims require verification and may constitute information operations.
Force Posture Assessment (UA): Forces for potential Russian Kharkiv/Sumy offensives are assessed as unlikely to be drawn from Kursk Oblast due to sustained Ukrainian pressure and combat escalation in Belgorod/Kursk Oblasts. Potential reinforcement sources remain under assessment. North Korean troop involvement remains a possibility (UA sources claim ~3,000 sent Jan-Feb 2025). CinC Syrskyi confirms Russian efforts to extend combat operations into Sumy Oblast.
Combat Intensity & Main Efforts:
Overall combat intensity remains high across the front. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 159 combat clashes as of 16:00 local time on Mar 27. March 2025 has seen markedly higher Russian assault activity compared to February (UA analysis).
Main Russian Ground Efforts focus on Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk directions, and intensified operations along the Kursk/Belgorod border.
Potential Change in UA Markings (RU Claim): A Russian mil-blogger claims Ukrainian forces will soon adopt new identification markings (yellow tape on both shoulders/helmet; vertical arrow in square for vehicles), allegedly linked to new offensive plans. Requires verification.
International Military Support & Planning:
Operational Planning: Significant international planning support continues (FR, UK, DE leaders visited Kyiv).
Potential Foreign Contingents/Peacekeepers: Discussions ongoing. Ukraine plans to propose a dialogue framework. Italy confirmed no troop deployment but supports future "coalition of the willing" talks (with US involvement). German DefMin Pistorius and Estonian DefMin expressed openness to participation in post-ceasefire peacekeeping under specific conditions.
Ramstein Format: Next meeting scheduled for April 11.
French Aid: €2bn package confirmed. 300 troops deploying to Romania (NATO Mission Aigle).
Netherlands Aid: Accelerated delivery confirmed; €2bn planned for delivery in 2025 (instead of 2026).
Czech Initiative: Aims to deliver at least 1.5 million artillery shells to Ukraine in 2025 (Reuters citing PM Fiala).
Sweden: Initiating major rearmament, enhancing support for Ukraine.
Diplomacy & Negotiations:
President Zelenskyy maintains Russia delays talks for territorial gain; reiterates refusal to talk directly with Putin, characterizing Russia as wanting to "eat" Ukraine. He instructed MoD to provide evidence of Kherson energy strike to US. FR/UK reportedly designated European representatives for future talks. RU sources claim Russia refused talks on halting civilian target strikes in Riyadh.
US-Russia Dialogue: Contacts continue; potential second round in Riyadh mid-April (TASS). US FinMin official confirmed considering SWIFT return/sanctions relief as part of settlement (Fox News). RU sources allege demands for fertilizer sanction relief linked to Black Sea "ceasefire" (Sternenko/Bloomberg).
Black Sea Ceasefire Understanding: UA MFA Spokesperson clarified the understanding reached (reportedly via US mediation) applies to civil shipping/ports but does not cover Russian military warships. Movement beyond specified areas considered a violation/threat.
UA-US Security Agreement/Subsoil Resources: Ongoing discussions regarding potential draft agreement linked to Donald Trump, potentially granting US significant control over Ukrainian resources/reconstruction funds, requiring aid repayment. Analysis suggests linkage to US-Russia energy talks (Nord Stream). High strategic significance, requires close monitoring.
Ceasefire Monitoring: UA MFA states US holds overall responsibility for consolidating control agreements; third-party involvement important. UA commander expressed skepticism about ceasefire feasibility.
Russian Force Generation & Internal: Deployment of "Akhmat" volunteers continues. Rosgvardia's combat role expands. Coercive recruitment/abuse reports persist (Perm Krai individual; 394th MRR commander "Sber"). Putin attended launch of Yasen-M submarine "Perm" and visited "Arkhangelsk". Law advancing to remove foreign language signs in Moscow.
Ukrainian Mobilization & Reorganization: Focus on forming new Army Corps. First "Contract 18-24" recruits begin training.
Internal Security (Ukraine): SBU detained organized crime group led by Russian national (Vitaliy Myslik "Ruskiy") involved in extortion targeting civilians/military across multiple oblasts.
Movement Vectors (Updated 19:41 UTC): Drones in Sumy Oblast -> SW; W. Poltava -> W; Kherson -> Mykolaiv; Kirovohrad -> Cherkasy; E. & W. Dnipropetrovsk -> W. Threat declared for Kyiv Oblast (19:48 UTC).
Earlier Vectors (19:15 UTC): 4 new groups via Berislav (Kherson) -> Bereznehuvate (Mykolaiv); 3 W of Kamyanske (Dnipropetrovsk); 4 in Kremenchuk district (Poltava); 3 N of Samar -> Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk); 2 towards/through Lozova (Kharkiv); 1 W of Sumy; 1 towards/through Pryluky (Chernihiv); 1 near Zlatopil (Kharkiv) -> W.
Zaporizhzhia City/Oblast (Attack Aftermath): Fires resulting from earlier drone attack are being liquidated. One 19-year-old male injured, condition stable. A house in Kushuhum and a dacha house in Zaporizhzhia city destroyed by blast wave/debris. Fire reported earlier at an infrastructure facility.
Russian Air Activity Alerts: UAV attack threat ended for Lipetsk Oblast/City (RU Gov, 19:42 UTC); yellow level remains. Earlier, several UAVs destroyed over Voronezh Oblast, including on approach to Voronezh city; no damage/casualties reported (RU Gov, 18:07, 19:25 UTC). RU MoD claims 5 UAVs downed over Kursk/Belgorod (19:00-19:45 MSK) and 9 over Voronezh/Belgorod (20:50-22:00 MSK).
Recent Strikes & Claims:
Crimea (UA GUR Claim - HIGH SIGNIFICANCE): Successful drone strikes (GUR unit "Prymary") reported targeting multiple Russian air defense radars (Podlyot, Imbir, ST-68, Kasta-2E2), command posts, a tugboat ("Fedor Uryupin"), and a truck. (Video released Mar 27).
Kursk Oblast, RU (RU MoD Claim): Strike on UA personnel near Oleshnia (Mar 27).
Bryansk Oblast, RU (RU Claim): Rybar alleges UA attack on Rosseti energy facility, despite moratorium.
Siversk Direction (RU Claim): RU MoD claims destruction of two Ukrainian UAV command posts (Mar 27).
Engels Airbase, RU (UA GHS Claim): Claimed destruction of 96 cruise missiles following Mar 20 strike.
Overnight Attack (Mar 26-27): Combined RU attack (1 Iskander-M, 86 drones - Shahed/imitators). UA intercepted 42 Shaheds. Impacts confirmed in Dnipro (3 injured), Kharkiv City (16 injured across city/Zolochiv, incl. 3 children; warehouse, industrial zone, residential damage), Zolochiv (Kharkiv Obl - 8 injured/affected, house destroyed), Nikopol district (1 injured).
Ukrainian Counter-UAV/Drone Operations:
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 2 Russian UAVs shot down during the day (Mar 27).
General: UA Air Defense Forces reportedly destroyed a Russian Zala Kub kamikaze drone using an FPV drone (Video). UA 63rd Brigade reports successful night operations with "Baba Yaga" type drones (17 RU KIA claimed in one night). UA "Ochi ta Zhalo" units claim 369 targets hit, 106 RU KIA in Donbas Mar 24-26 (Video).
Russian Drone Operations:
MoD showcases FPV drone teams (Vostok Group) in South Donetsk direction (Video).
Kherson (Right Bank): Heavy shelling continues. 2 civilians killed, 6 injured (incl. 2 medics) due to Russian shelling/drones (Mar 27). Secondary strike targeted medics. Strike hit Kherson railway station. Ukrposhta restricted deliveries. Over 40 impacts reported (Mar 27).
Naval Activity: 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier (up to 4 missiles) reported active in Black Sea. Russia launched the new Yasen-M class nuclear submarine "Perm" (designated as first standard carrier for Tsirkon hypersonic missiles, intended for Pacific Fleet) and Putin visited the recently commissioned Yasen-M sub "Arkhangelsk".
III. Ground Combat Operations
Kursk/Belgorod - Sumy/Kharkiv Border Situation:
Kursk Oblast (RU Claims - Rybar, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, MoD): Russian forces secured the MAPP Sudzha border checkpoint building (51st PDP flag raised confirmed). Hoholiivka claimed almost fully cleared. RU forces reportedly advancing towards Oleshnia. Assault groups claimed consolidation in northern outskirts of Huyevo. Claimed remaining UA presence limited to S. Huyevo, Hornal, and Oleshnia. Local RU successes claimed near Basovka, Zhuravka, Volodymyrivka (Sumy Oblast). RU sources emphasize large UA reserve concentration in Sumy Oblast posing threat for renewed attacks.
Kursk Oblast (UA Reports): CinC Syrskyi confirms RU efforts to expand combat into Sumy Oblast. UGS reported 8 combat clashes in Kursk Direction (Mar 27, 16:00 local).
Belgorod Oblast: Ongoing Ukrainian drone/artillery strikes reported. Fighting previously reported near Demydovka (dynamic). RU claims UA forces near Krasnaya Yaruga being pushed out. RU claims UA attempted mine clearing breach near Popovka repelled (Mar 26).
UA 57th Brigade Report (Cmdr, 2nd Btn): Confirms holding western Vovchansk since May 2024. Intense fighting continues (RU mortars, artillery, infiltration groups). UA uses recon/observation. RU attempts to cross Vovcha river repelled. RU using fiber-optic drones, remote mining.
RU sources claim UA reinforced near Liptsi (~200) and Vovchansk (~100).
Kupyansk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 25 Russian assaults reported, 19 ongoing (UGS Mar 27, 16:00). Main axes: Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, Pishchane. RU forces advanced near Pishchane (DeepState Map Update, Mar 26). Ukrainian forces repelled RU forces at Kotlyne (DeepState Map Update, Mar 26).
Terny: Ukrainian assessment indicates Terny is almost fully occupied by Russian forces, situation worsening (DeepState, Mar 27; RVvoenkor citing DeepState). RU forces reportedly advancing SE, attempting to cut logistics to Yampilivka. RU forces advanced near Terny (DeepState Map Update, Mar 26).
Significant RU advances W. of Novoliubivka (Group "West"), developing offensive on Ivanivka bridgehead (right bank Zherebets R.) towards Katerynivka for 3 days; RU forward units reached Katerynivka outskirts, attempting consolidation. RU forces advanced near Katerynivka (DeepState Map Update, Mar 26).
Advances on west bank of Zherebets River near Novoliubivka-Kolodezi line, capturing UA positions N of Kolodezi. RU forces present SE of Nove. Expanded control zone near Nevske/Novoliubivka. Fighting ongoing near Nadiia. Captured UA strongpoints towards Nove.
Advance ~4km N of Ivanivka (near Kryvosheieva gully). Advance towards Myrne from Yampolivka (1.5km claimed).
Lozove remains under RU control despite UA counterattacks. Situation worsening around Ivanivka (right bank Zherebets R.). These advances reported as cumulative over recent weeks.
UA 63rd Brigade / 55th Btn: Active in Serebryansky Forest area, requesting support (pickup truck, EW).
Siversk Direction: 3 RU assaults near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske reported earlier (UGS Mar 27, 16:00). RU claims advance towards Hryhorivka from Bilohorivka; advance S of Verkhnokamyanske (300m).
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar/Bakhmut): 2 RU attempts repelled near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne; 2 clashes ongoing (UGS Mar 27, 16:00). Heavy fighting, RU 98th VDV active.
Toretsk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 21 Russian attacks reported, 3 ongoing (UGS Mar 27, 16:00). RU sources claim advances, including clearing Oleksandropil (Rozivka) and Panteleimonivka.
Ukrainian Claim (Azov Brigade):20 Russian soldiers surrendered to Azov forces near Toretsk (Video released Mar 27, confirmed by RBC-Ukraine).
Uspenivka: RU continues assaults (~100 RU troops estimated infiltrated). UA claims inflicting ~20 KIA daily via drones. RU using light vehicles. UA maintains fire control, RU attempts towards Novooleksandrivka noted. Situation difficult but controlled (DeepState UA, Mar 27).
RU claims slight consolidation near Udachne, high RU FPV activity limiting UA movement near Shevchenko.
South Donetsk / Velyka Novosilka / Vremivka Directions:
RU Claims (Voin DV, Colonelcassad - Mar 27): RU "Vostok" group advancing. Near Rozlyv: Advance 1.5-2km, cleared 3 treelines. Near Vesele: Advance 0.5km. Vilne Pole – Novosilka area: Advance 1km, occupied 3 treelines. Fighting ongoing in S. outskirts of Vilne Pole. Targeted UA reinforcements near Bohatyr. Destroyed UA assault group/MaxxPro near Rozlyv, M113 near Kostiantynopil, FV103 Spartan near Vesele.
Novopavlivsk Direction (UGS): UA forces repelling 13 Russian attacks near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne (Mar 27, 16:00).
Huliaipole Direction: 8 Russian assaults reported (UGS Mar 27). RU claims broke through into Vilne Pole after liberating Pryvilne. Targeted UA engineer groups near Huliaipole.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
UA stopped 4 Russian attacks towards Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Kam'yanske earlier (UGS Mar 27, 16:00).
Russian Claim (VIDEO EVIDENCE): RU claims advance >2.5km East of Kam'yanske, reaching new positions in Shcherbaky.
RU forces advanced near Enerhodar/ZNPP area (DeepState Map Update, Mar 26).
Kherson (Left Bank/Krynky): No significant changes reported. Positional fighting continues.
Kherson (Right Bank): Heavy RU shelling ongoing.
IV. Other Developments
Evacuation (Donetsk Oblast): Mandatory evacuation expanded in Kryvorizka, Dobropilska, Druzhkivska, Lymanska Hromadas (~500 children affected).
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): Ukraine requested IAEA verification of reported damage to diesel tank. Russia denies considering joint US-Russia control.
Cybersecurity/OPSEC: Reports persist regarding potential leak of US security officials' data; RFE/RL funding temporarily restored by US court despite Trump administration efforts (RU sources).
Russian Arctic Posturing: Putin's Arctic Forum speech highlighted perceived NATO threat, justified RU military buildup.
Journalist Safety: UNESCO condemned killing of RU journalists Fedorchak, Panov, and driver Sirkeli.
Alleged Deficiencies in UA "Novator" Vehicles: RU sources disseminate alleged documents highlighting deficiencies. Requires verification; potential RU info op. Documents purportedly show UA tasking new requirements development (counter-drone protection emphasis).
