Military Situation Update: March 27, 2025, 19:31 UTC
I. Strategic Overview
Russian Offensive Preparations & Intentions:
Intelligence indicates ongoing Russian preparations for renewed offensive operations, primarily targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. President Zelenskyy assesses Russia is delaying negotiations to facilitate further territorial gains.
Russian sources (citing UA officer Prozapas) amplify claims that Russia aims to capture Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa to establish a land bridge from Crimea to Transnistria.
A separate Russian claim (citing 'underground' sources) suggests Ukraine is preparing major offensive operations on three axes: Mykolaiv towards Crimea, Zaporizhzhia towards Berdiansk, and a massed attack into Belgorod Oblast. Large Western heavy equipment deliveries are allegedly expected. This claim requires verification.
Force Posture Assessment (UA): Forces for potential Russian Kharkiv/Sumy offensives are assessed as unlikely to be drawn from Kursk Oblast due to sustained Ukrainian pressure and combat escalation in Belgorod/Kursk Oblasts. Potential reinforcement sources are under assessment. North Korean troop involvement remains a possibility (UA sources claim ~3,000 sent Jan-Feb 2025). CinC Syrskyi confirms Russian efforts to extend combat operations into Sumy Oblast.
Combat Intensity & Main Efforts:
Overall combat intensity remains high across the front. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 159 combat clashes as of 16:00 local time on Mar 27. March 2025 has seen markedly higher Russian assault activity compared to February (UA analysis).
Main Russian Ground Efforts focus on Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk directions, and intensified operations along the Kursk/Belgorod border.
Potential Change in UA Markings (RU Claim): A Russian mil-blogger claims Ukrainian forces will soon adopt new identification markings (yellow tape on both shoulders/helmet; vertical arrow in square for vehicles), allegedly linked to new offensive plans. Requires verification.
International Military Support & Planning:
Operational Planning: Significant international planning support continues, with military leaders from France, UK, and Germany having visited Kyiv.
Potential Foreign Contingents/Peacekeepers: Discussion continues regarding potential allied troop deployments ("boots on the ground"). Ukraine plans to propose a dialogue framework soon. Italy clarified it will not deploy troops but called for US involvement in future "coalition of the willing" discussions. German DefMin Pistorius indicated openness to German participation in post-ceasefire peacekeeping, contingent on mandate/participants. Estonian DefMin expressed similar willingness.
Ramstein Format: Next meeting scheduled for April 11.
French Aid: €2bn package confirmed. France is deploying 300 troops to Romania for NATO training (Mission Aigle).
Netherlands Aid: Accelerated delivery confirmed; €2bn planned for delivery in 2025 (instead of 2026).
Sweden: Initiating major rearmament, enhancing support for Ukraine.
Diplomacy & Negotiations:
President Zelenskyy maintains Russia delays talks for territorial gain. He instructed the MoD to provide evidence of the Kherson energy infrastructure strike to the US. France and UK reportedly designated European representatives for future talks. Russian sources claim Russia refused to discuss halting strikes on civilian targets in Riyadh. Zelenskyy reiterates refusal to talk directly with Putin, characterizing Russia as wanting to "eat" Ukraine.
US-Russia Dialogue: Contacts continue. A second round of consultations may occur in Riyadh mid-April (TASS source). US FinMin official confirmed considering SWIFT return/sanctions relief for Russia as part of a settlement (Fox News). Russian sources (Sternenko/Bloomberg) allege RU demands for sanction relief on fertilizer trade are linked to Black Sea "ceasefire" discussions.
UA-US Security Agreement/Subsoil Resources: Ongoing discussions. Reports (Bloomberg, The Telegraph, RU/UA sources) detail a potential draft agreement linked to Donald Trump that could grant the US significant control over Ukrainian subsoil resources (oil, gas, minerals), reconstruction funds (via a US-majority commission with veto power), and require Ukraine to repay past aid before receiving revenue. Analysis suggests this is tied to broader US-Russia energy negotiations potentially involving Nord Stream revival. High strategic significance, requires close monitoring.
Ceasefire Monitoring: UA MFA spokesperson stated the US holds overall responsibility for consolidating ceasefire control agreements, with third-party involvement also deemed important. A UA CAESAR battery commander (155th Bde, Pokrovsk dir.) expressed skepticism about the reality of any ceasefire.
Russian Force Generation & Internal: Deployment of "Akhmat" volunteers continues. Rosgvardia's combat role expands with heavy weaponry integration. Reports of coercive recruitment and abuse persist (e.g., intellectually disabled man from Perm Krai; reports of commander "Sber" in 394th MRR forcing troops into fire). Putin visited the recently commissioned Yasen-M submarine "Arkhangelsk". Video circulated showing recovery efforts for a sunken RU armored vehicle at a training ground. Law advancing to remove foreign language signs in Moscow.
Ukrainian Mobilization & Reorganization: Focus on forming new Army Corps. First recruits under "Contract 18-24" begin training.
Internal Security (Ukraine): SBU detained an organized crime group led by a Russian national (Vitaliy Myslik "Ruskiy") involved in extortion across Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts, targeting civilians and military personnel.
Movement Vectors (Updated 19:15 UTC): 4 new groups via Berislav (Kherson) -> Bereznehuvate (Mykolaiv); 3 W of Kamyanske (Dnipropetrovsk); 4 in Kremenchuk district (Poltava); 3 N of Samar -> Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk); 2 towards/through Lozova (Kharkiv); 1 W of Sumy; 1 towards/through Pryluky (Chernihiv); 1 near Zlatopil (Kharkiv) -> W.
Earlier Vectors: Drones moving from Sumy/Chernihiv border -> SW; E. Poltava -> W; towards Kremenchuk; towards/through Alexandria (Kirovohrad); S. of Poltava -> Kremenchuk; W. of Kamyanske (Dnipropetrovsk) -> S; E. of Poltava -> S; W. of Konotop (Sumy) -> W; New groups in Kupyansk district (Kharkiv) and near Vovchansk (Kharkiv). Threat declared for Cherkasy Oblast (Cherkaskyi, Zolotoniskyi districts).
Zaporizhzhia City/Oblast: Attack ongoing earlier, explosions reported, air defense active. Preliminary reports indicate a fire at an infrastructure facility and burning dacha houses. No casualties reported yet (UA AF, Nikolaevsky Vanek, UA officials, Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Kherson Oblast: Threat declared (UA AF, 19:05 UTC).
Russian Air Activity Alerts: Air danger mode declared in Lipetsk Oblast/City, RU (18:07, 18:45 UTC). Several UAVs destroyed over Voronezh Oblast, RU, including more destroyed on approach to Voronezh city; no damage/casualties reported (RU Governor, 18:07, 19:25 UTC). UAV attack threat also declared for Lipetsk city/district (18:45 UTC).
Recent Strikes & Claims:
Crimea (UA GUR Claim - HIGH SIGNIFICANCE): Successful drone strikes reported by GUR unit "Prymary" targeting multiple Russian air defense radars (Podlyot, Imbir, ST-68, Kasta-2E2), command posts, a tugboat ("Fedor Uryupin"), and a truck. (Video released Mar 27, 18:00 UTC).
Kursk Oblast, RU (RU MoD Claim): Strike on UA personnel concentration near Oleshnia (Mar 27, 17:34 UTC).
Siversk Direction (RU Claim): Russian MoD claims destruction of two Ukrainian UAV command posts (Mar 27).
Engels Airbase, RU (UA GHS Claim): Claimed destruction of 96 cruise missiles following Mar 20 strike.
Overnight Attack (Mar 26-27): Combined RU attack (1 Iskander-M, 86 drones - Shahed/imitators). UA intercepted 42 Shaheds. Impacts confirmed in Dnipro (3 injured), Kharkiv City (13 injured, 29 buildings damaged), Zolochiv (Kharkiv Oblast - 8 injured, incl. child), Nikopol district (1 injured).
Ukrainian Counter-UAV/Drone Operations:
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 2 Russian UAVs shot down during the day (Mar 27).
General: UA Air Defense Forces reportedly destroyed a Russian Zala Kub kamikaze drone using an FPV drone (Video, Mar 27). UA 63rd Brigade reports successful night operations with "Baba Yaga" type drones, claiming 17 RU KIA in one night (Video). UA "Ochi ta Zhalo" units claim 369 targets hit, 106 RU KIA in Donbas Mar 24-26 (Video).
Russian Drone Operations:
MoD showcases FPV drone teams (Vostok Group) in South Donetsk direction, including training simulators (Video).
Kherson (Right Bank): Heavy shelling continues. 2 civilians killed, 6 injured (incl. 2 medics) due to Russian shelling/drones (Mar 27). Secondary strike targeted medics. Strike hit Kherson railway station. Ukrposhta restricted deliveries due to shelling. Over 40 impacts reported (Mar 27).
Naval Activity: 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier (up to 4 missiles) reported active in the Black Sea. Russia launched the new Yasen-M class nuclear submarine "Perm" in a ceremony attended by Putin; designated as the first standard carrier for Tsirkon hypersonic missiles.
III. Ground Combat Operations
Kursk/Belgorod - Sumy/Kharkiv Border Situation:
Kursk Oblast (RU Claims): Russian forces secured the MAPP Sudzha border checkpoint building (flag raised by 51st PDP confirmed) and vicinity cleared. Fighting persists near checkpoint and towards Oleshnia. RU sources claim Hoholiivka is almost cleared (few houses remain), surrounding forest cleared. RU forces reportedly advancing towards Oleshnia. In Pleshkovsky sector, RU assault groups claimed consolidation in northern outskirts of Huyevo after heavy fighting. UA presence claimed limited to S. Huyevo, Hornal, and Oleshnia. Claimed local RU successes near Basovka, Zhuravka, Volodymyrivka (Sumy Oblast). RU sources emphasize large UA reserve concentration in Sumy Oblast posing threat for renewed attacks on Kursk/Belgorod.
Kursk Oblast (UA Reports): CinC Syrskyi confirms RU efforts to expand combat into Sumy Oblast. UGS reported 8 combat clashes in Kursk Direction (Mar 27, 16:00 local).
Belgorod Oblast: Ongoing Ukrainian drone/artillery strikes reported. Fighting previously reported near Demydovka (dynamic). RU claims UA forces near Krasnaya Yaruga (~4,000 personnel, >100 vehicles) are being pushed out. RU source claims UA attempting to disrupt logistics via bridge strikes.
UA 57th Brigade Report (Cmdr, 2nd Btn): Confirms holding western part of Vovchansk since May 15, 2024, despite city being heavily damaged/depopulated. Intense fighting continues with RU using mortars, artillery, small groups attempting infiltration. UA uses recon/observation to target approaching RU infantry. Browning HMG noted as effective. RU attempts to cross Vovcha river repelled. RU using fiber-optic drones and remote mining. UA losses claimed significantly lower than RU losses.
RU sources claim UA reinforced near Liptsi (~200) and Vovchansk (~100).
Kupyansk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 25 Russian assaults reported, 19 ongoing (UGS Mar 27, 16:00). Main axes: Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, Pishchane.
Terny: Ukrainian assessment indicates Terny is almost fully occupied by Russian forces, situation worsening (DeepState, RVvoenkor citing DeepState). RU forces advancing SE, attempting to cut logistics to Yampilivka.
Significant RU advances W. of Novoliubivka (Group "West"), developing offensive on Ivanivka bridgehead (right bank Zherebets R.) towards Katerynivka for 3 days; RU forward units reached Katerynivka outskirts, attempting consolidation.
Advances on west bank of Zherebets River near Novoliubivka-Kolodezi line, capturing UA positions N of Kolodezi. RU forces present SE of Nove. Expanded control zone near Nevske/Novoliubivka. Fighting ongoing near Nadiia.
Advance ~4km N of Ivanivka, capturing large strongpoint near Kryvosheieva gully. Advance towards Myrne from Yampolivka (1.5km claimed). Captured UA strongpoints towards Nove.
Lozove remains under RU control despite UA counterattacks. These advances reported as cumulative over recent weeks. Situation worsening around Ivanivka (right bank Zherebets R.).
Siversk Direction: 3 RU assaults near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske reported earlier (UGS Mar 27, 16:00). RU claims advance towards Hryhorivka from Bilohorivka; advance S of Verkhnokamyanske (300m).
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar/Bakhmut): 2 RU attempts repelled near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne; 2 clashes ongoing (UGS Mar 27, 16:00). Heavy fighting reported, RU 98th VDV active with drones.
Toretsk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. 21 Russian attacks reported, 3 ongoing (UGS Mar 27, 16:00). RU sources claim advances, including clearing Oleksandropil (Rozivka) and Panteleimonivka.
Ukrainian Claim: 20 Russian soldiers surrendered to Azov Brigade forces near Toretsk (Video released Mar 27, confirmed by RBC-Ukraine).
Uspenivka: RU continues assaults. ~100 RU troops estimated infiltrated/dispersed in the village. UA claims inflicting ~20 KIA daily via drones. RU using light vehicles for infantry insertion. UA maintains fire control, RU attempts towards Novooleksandrivka noted. Situation difficult but controlled (DeepState UA, Mar 27). RU claims fighting ongoing.
RU claims slight consolidation near Udachne and high RU FPV activity limiting UA movement near Shevchenko.
RU sources (RVvoenkor) released video compilation (Mar 26) claiming Group "Center" destroying UA tanks, NATO AFVs, SPGs, positions near Pokrovsk.
South Donetsk / Velyka Novosilka / Vremivka Directions:
RU Claims (Voin DV, Colonelcassad - Mar 27): RU "Vostok" group advancing. Near Rozlyv: Destroyed UA assault group/MaxxPro; Advance 1.5-2km, cleared 3 treelines. Near Kostiantynopil: Destroyed UA M113. Near Vesele: Destroyed UA FV103 Spartan; Advance 0.5km. Vilne Pole – Novosilka area: Advance 1km, occupied 3 treelines. RU claims fighting ongoing in S. outskirts of Vilne Pole. Targeted UA reinforcements near Bohatyr.
Novopavlivsk Direction (UGS): UA forces repelling 13 Russian attacks near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne (Mar 27, 16:00).
Huliaipole Direction: 8 Russian assaults reported (UGS Mar 27). RU claims broke through into Vilne Pole after liberating Pryvilne. Targeted UA engineer groups near Huliaipole.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
UA stopped 4 Russian attacks towards Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Kam'yanske earlier (UGS Mar 27, 16:00).
Russian Claim (VIDEO EVIDENCE): RU claims advance >2.5km East of Kam'yanske, reaching new positions in Shcherbaky after an assault. Video purports to show BTRs advancing and subsequent drone strike on supporting UA tank.
Kherson (Left Bank/Krynky): No significant changes reported. Positional fighting continues.
Kherson (Right Bank): Heavy RU shelling ongoing. Impact on civilian areas and infrastructure continues.
IV. Other Developments
Evacuation (Donetsk Oblast): Mandatory evacuation of families with children expanded to include villages in Kryvorizka, Dobropilska, Druzhkivska, and Lymanska Hromadas (affecting ~500 children).
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): Ukraine requested IAEA verification of reported damage to a diesel reserve tank.
Cybersecurity/OPSEC: Reports persist regarding potential leak of US security officials' personal data and communications security concerns. Requires verification.
Russian Arctic Posturing: Putin's speech at Arctic Forum highlighted perceived NATO threat, justification for RU military buildup in the region.
Journalist Safety: UNESCO condemned killing of RU journalists Fedorchak, Panov, and driver Sirkeli.
