Military Situation Update: March 27, 2025, 11:30 UTC
(Incorporating updates received up to 11:30 UTC)
I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Russian Combined Attack Aftermath (Night Mar 26-27):
Attack Details: A large-scale attack involved 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile (launched from Voronezh Oblast, RU) and 86 drones (Shahed-type and imitators, launched from RU mainland & occupied Crimea).
Target Areas: Primarily focused on Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv Oblasts. Secondary targets included Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava (Kremenchuk), Khmelnytskyi (Starokostiantyniv), and Vinnytsia Oblasts. Confirmed impacts on civilian residential areas and infrastructure in Dnipro and Kharkiv cities.
Ukrainian Interceptions: Confirmed interception of 42 Shahed-type UAVs. The Iskander-M missile was not intercepted. 26 imitator drones were reported as "locationally lost." (Source: UA Air Force).
Impacts (Updated):
Dnipro City:3 civilians injured. Significant damage reported to residential buildings (destruction, fires), enterprises, educational/cultural facilities, and vehicles. Cleanup operations are ongoing. (Sources: Dnipropetrovsk OVA, National Police).
Kharkiv City/Oblast:11 civilians injured. Significant damage to residential buildings, infrastructure, warehouses, power lines, and a gas pipe. (Source: Kharkiv OVA).
Nikopol District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): 1 civilian injured; damage to residential buildings and infrastructure.
Ongoing Air Threats (As of 11:30 UTC):
Sumy Oblast: Threat from high-speed target declared. (Source: UA Air Force - NEW).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Threat from guided aerial bombs (KABs) launched by Russian tactical aviation. (Source: UA Air Force - NEW).
Kharkiv Oblast: Threat of strike UAVs persists. (Source: UA Air Force).
Russian tactical aviation activity remains high in the east/northeast, posing a continued threat of air-launched weapons.
Russian Airstrikes (Past 24h):
UA General Staff reported RU aviation strikes against multiple settlements across Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts.
Russian MoD claims continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (Bryansk Oblast power line and substation hit by UAV/artillery; UAV targeting Crimea gas storage facility intercepted). (Source: RU MoD, TASS, RVvoenkor - NEW RU CLAIM).
Ukrainian Strikes (Claims):
UA General Staff claims destruction of 96 Russian ALCMs and fuel at Engels-2 Airbase (Mar 20). Claim requires verification.
UA SSO "REQUIEM GROUP" claims FPV strikes in Belgorod Oblast hitting 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS, repair equipment, vehicles, tanks, and personnel. (Source: STERNENKO). Claim requires verification.
Downing of a Russian Zala Kub loitering munition reported by UA Air Defense Forces. (Source: STERNENKO - NEW).
UA interception of a Russian "Darts" drone carrying ordnance near Makiivka reported by Russian sources. (Source: Mash na Donbasse - NEW RU CLAIM).
Russian Law Enforcement Casualties (RU Territory): 1 Russian police officer injured by a UAV attack in Kursk Oblast. (Source: TASS).
Naval Activity: 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier (up to 4 missiles) reported active in the Black Sea.
II. Ground Combat and Border Operations
Overall Intensity (Mar 26): High, 224 combat clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Main Russian Efforts: Focused on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, South Donetsk (Vremivka/Novopavlivsk), Kursk/Belgorod borders, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv).
Kursk & Belgorod Border Operations (Ongoing UA Operations):
Ukrainian Assessment (CinC Syrskyi visit to Sumy Oblast): Increased RU intensity and attempts to push fighting onto UA territory noted. UA forces (DShV, Marines, TDF, Mechanized) conducting defensive operations within the "Kursk" operational zone to prevent RU breakthrough, including counter-attacks and assaults. Reserves, ammunition, and drones being repositioned. Significant RU losses claimed over 7.5 months (>55,000 total casualties: >22,200 killed/missing, >31,800 wounded, >940 PoW). Strategic aim is to maintain a "sanitary zone" on RU territory and block RU forces on the Sumy border. (Source: UA General Staff). HIGH SIGNIFICANCE.
Russian Assessment (RU Milbloggers): Situation on the Belgorod border described as "extremely serious." Acknowledge UA attempts to isolate the area/disrupt logistics using "blooming flower" tactic (multiple probes, reinforcing success). Claim UA reserves from Kursk are involved. Assert RU defensive lines are holding but UA attacks (artillery, drones, infantry/vehicle assaults) continue, with more expected. (Source: Dva Mayora, Starshe Eddy, Kotsnews).
Kursk: Intense fighting continues. UA General Staff reports repelling 25 RU assaults. Russian sources claim advances near Guevo and pressure on Oleshnya. Russian MoD claims repelling UA attacks and inflicting losses. Russian artillery reported active. (Sources: UGS, Colonelcassad, MoD RU, Voin DV).
Belgorod: Street fighting ongoing in Demydovka; RU sources claim UA infantry groups present in the SE part, with RU forces controlling the rest and conducting clearing operations west of the settlement. Fighting reported inPopovka (low ground); RU claims repelling UA attempts, including an overnight vehicle assault where UA allegedly lost a BREM recovery vehicle. (Sources: Dva Mayora, Starshe Eddy).
Russian Casualty Context (Kursk): Media report citing deleted RU MoE data claims 152,623 victims and 145 deaths (approx. 1/3 of total RU emergency deaths in 2024) in Kursk Oblast, attributed to "Ukrainian occupation." (Source: Sever.Realii).
Eastern & Southern Frontlines (Primarily Mar 26 data unless specified):
Kharkiv (OTU Kharkiv Report, Mar 27 09:00): Situation complex. 153 RU kamikaze drones and 708 shelling incidents in the past 24 hours. Two RU attempts to breach defenses near Vovchansk repelled. Claimed RU losses: 106 personnel (58 KIA), 2 BBM, 2 artillery systems, 5 vehicles, 3 EW systems, 2 spec. eqpt, 69 UAVs destroyed/damaged. 91 RU shelters, 1 fuel storage, 2 ammo depots destroyed. (Source: OTU Kharkiv - NEW).
Kupyansk: RU assaults near Holubivka, Zahryzove repelled/ongoing (UGS). Russian forces advanced near Pischane (DeepState). Ukrainian forces repelled RU forces from Kotlyne (DeepState).
Lyman: 14 RU attacks repelled near multiple settlements (UGS). Russian forces advanced near Terny (DeepState). Russian sources claim forces entered Katerynivka, fighting ongoing. Russian sources claim >3 km advance west of the Zherebets river near Novoe (Krasnyi Lyman area), with assault groups taking positions under fire. (Sources: UGS, DeepState, RU Claims, Slyvochnyi Kapriz - NEW RU CLAIM/GEOLOCATION).
Siversk: 11 RU attacks stopped near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Daryivka (UGS).
Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar): 4 RU attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Bila Hora (UGS). RU storming actions continue.
RU Claims (Rybar/Dva Mayora Analysis): RU advancing on flanks: NW of Druzhba towards UA strongpoints; regained most of Krymske, fighting in Fomikha district; reached outskirts of Panteleimonivka & Aleksandropol (RU assault groups active); pushed UA from central Tarasovka. Potential threat to Konstantynivka/Chasiv Yar rear via advance from Zelenopil/Sukha Balka to Romanivka/H-20 highway.
Pokrovsk:Highest intensity (88 clashes) reported Mar 26. RU attacks repelled near multiple settlements (UGS). UA SSO captured 9 RU soldiers. Russian sources describe fighting in Uspenivka (UA still present), fortified positions near Udachne, partial RU control of Solone (half in grey zone), difficult RU advance near Shevchenko due to UA FPV activity, and UA drone control over RU logistics near Kotlyno/Uspenivka-Solone. RU air/arty active. (Sources: UGS, UA SSO, Dnevnik Desantnika - NEW RU CLAIM).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk / Vremivka: 25 RU attacks reported near Rozlyv, Vesele, Kostyantynopil, Skudne (UGS). Russian sources claim advances near Rozlyv (RU secured eastern outskirts), continued intense fighting near Vesele and Oleksiivka (UA counter-attacking), RU progress from Pryvilne towards Vilne Pole (RU secured eastern part), and splitting UA defenses near Novosilka with a 500m advance. (Sources: UGS, Colonelcassad/don_partizan - NEW RU CLAIM). RU claims storming Vilne Pole.
Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv): 9 RU assaults repelled near Mali Scherbaky, Lobkove, Scherbaka, towards Stepove (UGS). Russian forces advanced near the Dniproenerhiya area (likely Enerhodar vicinity) (DeepState).
Kherson (Prydniprovsky): 2 RU attacks stopped (UGS). Positional fighting. Effective UA drone strikes reported (MT-LB loaded with ammo destroyed causing large secondary explosion; light vehicle with assault group destroyed). (Sources: UGS, Butusov, Tsaplienko, Operativno ZSU).
III. Other Significant Military and Political Developments
Potential Russian Spring Offensive: President Zelenskyy reiterated that Russia is preparing for a new offensive, potentially targeting Sumy and Kharkiv. He suggested UA operations in Kursk may have disrupted these plans. Intelligence reportedly shared with allies. (Sources: Tsaplienko, Operativno ZSU, Le Figaro, Alex Parker Returns). HIGH STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE.
International Military Aid & Support:
France: New aid package announced: Milan ATGM, MICA SAM (potentially for Mirage fighters), Mistral MANPADS, AMX-10RC light tanks, VAB APCs, strike drones, ammunition, and intelligence sharing. (Source: Podduchny). SIGNIFICANT.
Sweden: Plans to increase defense spending to ~3.5% of GDP by 2030 and increase support for Ukraine from €2.5bn to €4bn in 2025. (Source: Operativnyi ZSU - NEW). SIGNIFICANT.
Potential Foreign Troop Deployment (Discussion): European military planners reportedly considering scenarios. French proposal suggests deployment in central Ukraine along Dnipro River, away from the frontline. Other options: training roles further west or in neighboring countries. (Source: AP via RBC-Ukraine, Operatsia Z). HIGH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE. Russian MFA spokesperson Zakharova characterized this as London/Paris masking intervention plans. (Source: TASS - NEW).
Diplomatic Developments (Riyadh Talks):
Russian MFA spokesperson Zakharova stated Russia expects US/UA adherence to agreements reached in Riyadh regarding energy infrastructure strikes but noted Kiev cannot be trusted. Consultations reportedly to continue. (Source: TASS - NEW).
Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Zhovkva stated Russia refused to discuss the prohibition of strikes on civilian objects during the talks, claiming no mandate. (Source: RBC-Ukraine - NEW).
North Korean Support (Claim): Alleged deployment of ~3000 additional NK soldiers to Russia (Jan-Feb), increased weapon shipments including 170mm Koksan SPGs, 240mm MLRS (220 units), rockets, artillery, ammunition. (Source: SK JCS via AP, ASTRA). Requires verification.
Russian Tactics & Equipment: Continued heavy use of KABs, FPV/kamikaze drones. Reported use of Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) in Kharkiv Oblast. Use of fiber-optic FPV drones (Kursk, Pokrovsk, Toretsk). Introduction of Pantsir-SM-SV tracked air defense system claimed. (Sources: Basurin, Kotsnews, Dva Mayora, Dnevnik Desantnika).
Ukrainian Tactics & Equipment: Reported use of fiber-optic controlled FPV drones resistant to EW (Azov Brigade, Toretsk). Effective FPV drone strikes (e.g., "Magyar's Birds" MT-LB strike). Recruitment drive for 59th Unmanned Systems Assault Brigade emphasizes drone/robotic complex assaults to minimize human risk, offering financial incentives. (Source: UA General Staff - NEW). Recruitment/training ongoing for other units (e.g., 46th, 95th Brigades).
