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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-03-27 11:02:25Z
11 months ago
Previous (2025-03-27 10:32:28Z)

Military Situation Update: March 27, 2025, 11:00 UTC

(Incorporating updates received up to 11:00 UTC)

I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

  • Russian Combined Attack Aftermath (Night Mar 26-27):
    • Launch Details: Confirmed 1 Iskander-M (Voronezh Oblast, RU), 86 drones (Shahed-type and imitators) launched from RU mainland & occupied Crimea.
    • Target Areas: Primarily Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv Oblasts. Also targeted Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava (Kremenchuk), Khmelnytskyi (Starokostiantyniv), Vinnytsia Oblasts. Civilian residential areas and infrastructure confirmed hit in Dnipro and Kharkiv.
    • Ukrainian Interceptions: Confirmed 42 Shahed-type UAVs intercepted. Iskander-M not intercepted. 26 imitator drones "locationally lost". (Source: UA Air Force).
    • Impacts (Updated):
      • Dnipro City: 3 injured; significant damage to residential buildings (destruction, fires), enterprises, educational/cultural facilities, vehicles. Ongoing cleanup. (Sources: Dnipropetrovsk OVA, National Police, Lysak video).
      • Kharkiv City/Oblast: 11 injured; significant damage to residential buildings, infrastructure, warehouses, power lines, gas pipe. (Source: Kharkiv OVA).
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Power/communication outages reported previously.
      • Nikopol District: 1 injured; damage to residential buildings, infrastructure.
  • Ongoing Air Threats (As of 11:00 UTC):
    • Kharkiv Oblast: Threat of strike UAVs declared. (Source: UA Air Force).
    • Russian tactical aviation activity persists in east/northeast, threat of air-launched weapons remains.
    • Previous alerts for Sumy and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts ended ~10:19 UTC.
  • Russian Airstrikes (UA GenStaff Report): RU aviation conducted strikes against Turya, Krasnopillya, Uhroyidy, Mykhaylivske, Prokhody, Myropilske (Sumy); Novopil (Donetsk); Komyshuvakha, Temyrivka, Kamyanske, Novoukrayinka, Prymorske, Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia); Novooleksandrivka (Kherson).
  • Claimed Ukrainian Strike (Engels-2 Airbase, Mar 20): UA General Staff claims destruction of 96 Russian air-launched cruise missiles and fuel. Claim requires verification.
  • Claimed Ukrainian Drone Strikes (Belgorod Oblast, RU): UA SSO "REQUIEM GROUP" claims FPV strikes hitting 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS, repair equipment, 5 light vehicles, 2 tanks, and personnel. (Source: STERNENKO). Claim requires verification.
  • Ukrainian Drone Attack (Kursk Oblast, RU): 1 Russian police officer injured due to UAV attack. (Source: TASS).
  • Naval Activity: 1 Russian Kalibr carrier (up to 4 missiles) reported in the Black Sea.

II. Ground Combat and Border Operations

  • Overall Intensity (Mar 26): High, 224 combat clashes reported (Source: UA General Staff).
  • Main Russian Efforts: Pokrovsk, Toretsk, South Donetsk (Vremivka/Novopavlivsk), Kursk/Belgorod borders, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv).
  • Kursk & Belgorod Border Operations (Ongoing UA Operations):
    • UA Assessment (CinC Syrskyi): Visited Sumy Oblast due to increased RU intensity and attempts to push fighting onto UA territory. UA forces (DShV, Marines, TDF, Mechanized) conducting defensive operations within the "Kursk" operational zone to prevent RU breakthrough, including counter-attacks and assault actions. Decisions made to replenish ammunition, drones, and move reserves. Claimed significant RU losses over 7.5 months of the "Kursk operation": >55,000 total casualties (>22,200 irrecoverable, >31,800 sanitary, >940 PoW). Aims to maintain "sanitary zone" on RU territory and block RU forces on Sumy border. (Source: UA General Staff). HIGH SIGNIFICANCE.
    • RU Assessment (RU Milbloggers): Situation described as "extremely serious" on Belgorod border. Acknowledge UA attempts to isolate area/disrupt logistics using "blooming flower" tactic (multiple probes, reinforcing success). Claim UA reserves freed from Kursk are involved. Assert RU defensive lines holding but UA attacks (arty, drones, infantry/vehicle) continue. Expect more attacks. (Source: Dva Mayora, Starshe Eddy).
    • Kursk: Intense fighting continues. UA GenStaff reports repelling 25 RU assaults. RU sources claim advances near Guevo (claiming UA pushed out of northern part) and pressure on Oleshnya. RU MoD claims repelling UA attacks, inflicting >190 personnel losses, destroying equipment in last 24 hrs. RU artillery (Ussuriysk paratroopers) reportedly active against UA infantry near border. (Sources: UGS, Colonelcassad, MoD RU, Voin DV).
    • Belgorod: Street fighting ongoing in Demydovka; RU source claims UA infantry groups present in SE part, RU forces control rest and conduct clearing operations. RU claims clearing operations West of Demydovka underway. Fighting reported in Popovka (low ground); RU claims repelling UA attempts, including vehicle assault overnight (UA allegedly lost BREM). (Sources: Dva Mayora, Starshe Eddy). UA SSO "REQUIEM GROUP" claims drone strikes on multiple targets (see Section I).
    • Sumy Border Area: RU sources claim expansion of control zone. Verification required.
    • RU Casualty Context (Kursk): Media report citing deleted RU MoE data claims 152,623 victims and 145 deaths (approx. 1/3 of total RU emergency deaths in 2024) in Kursk Oblast, attributed to "Ukrainian occupation". (Source: Sever.Realii).
    • Claimed UA Loss (Border Area): RU sources claim destruction of UA Stryker APC in Goncharovka by "Sever" Group. Location verification needed, potentially border area. (Source: Colonelcassad).
  • Eastern & Southern Frontlines (Mar 26 Data unless specified):
    • Kharkiv: RU assaults near Vovchansk stopped (UA GenStaff). RU 16th Spetsnaz Brigade claims destruction of UA M113 APC near Cherneshchyna. (RU Claim).
    • Kupyansk: RU assaults near Holubivka, Zahryzove repelled/ongoing (UA GenStaff). RU forces advanced near Pischane. (DeepState). UA forces repelled RU forces from Kotlyne. (DeepState).
    • Lyman: 14 RU attacks repelled near multiple settlements (UA GenStaff). RU forces advanced near Terny (DeepState). RU sources claim forces entered Katerynivka, fighting ongoing. (RU Claim).
    • Siversk: 11 RU attacks stopped near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Daryivka (UA GenStaff). UA PoW capture reported.
    • Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar): 4 RU attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Bila Hora (UA GenStaff). RU storming actions continue.
    • Toretsk: 20 RU attacks near Toretsk, Dachne, Krymske, Dyliyivka (UA GenStaff); urban fighting ongoing.
      • RU Claims (Rybar Analysis): RU advancing on flanks: NW of Druzhba towards UA strongpoints; regained most of Krymske, fighting in Fomikha district; reached outskirts of Panteleimonivka & Aleksandropol (RU assault groups active); pushed UA from central Tarasivka. Potential threat to Konstantynivka/Chasiv Yar rear via advance from Zelenopil/Sukha Balka to Romanivka/H-20 highway.
      • RU 68th Tank Regt claims destroying UA mortars in Panteleimonivka using drones and artillery (Msta-B, Gvozdika).
      • UA Azov brigade reports use of fiber-optic FPV drones against RU positions/vehicles.
    • Pokrovsk: Highest intensity (88 clashes). RU attacks repelled near multiple settlements (UA GenStaff). UA SSO captured 9 RU soldiers. UA 63rd Brigade reports hitting RU tank, intercepting crew communications. RU 33rd MSP commander interview details storm tactics: psychological prep, foot assaults, rapid infiltration/withdrawal, heavy tech/drone use, exploiting enemy predictability. (Source: Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
    • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk / Vremivka: 25 RU attacks near Rozlyv, Vesele, Kostyantynopil, Skudne (UA GenStaff). RU claims storming Vilne Pole. RU sources note difficult advance near Vilne Pole due to terrain favoring UA defense, RU forces engaged on southern edge for a week. RU targeting UA rear areas. (Sources: Colonelcassad, Dnevnik Desantnika).
    • Huliaipole: 16 RU attacks stopped near Rivnopil, Novosilka, Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, Novopil (UA GenStaff).
    • Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv): 9 RU assaults repelled near Mali Scherbaky, Lobkove, Scherbaka, towards Stepove (UA GenStaff). RU forces advanced near Dniproenerhiya area (likely Enerhodar vicinity) (DeepState). RU claims advances in Stepove, Lobkove. Verification required.
    • Kherson (Prydniprovsky): 2 RU attacks stopped (UA GenStaff). Positional fighting. UA "Magyar's Birds" drone unit destroys RU MT-LB laden with ammunition causing large secondary explosion (confirmed Butusov, Tsaplienko videos). UA drone strike destroys RU light vehicle with assault group. (Source: Operativno ZSU video).

III. Other Significant Military Developments

  • Potential RU Spring Offensive: President Zelenskyy stated Russia is preparing for a new offensive in Spring, specifically mentioning Sumy and Kharkiv. Stated these plans were potentially disrupted by UA operations in Kursk. Indicated intelligence shared with allies. (Sources: Tsaplienko, Operativno ZSU, Le Figaro, Alex Parker Returns). HIGH STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE.
  • French Military Aid Package: France announced new aid including: Milan ATGM, MICA SAM (potentially for Mirage fighters), Mistral MANPADS, AMX-10RC light tanks, VAB APCs, strike drones, ammunition, and intelligence sharing. (Source: Podduchny). SIGNIFICANT.
  • Potential Foreign Troop Deployment (Discussion): European military planners reportedly considering scenarios for deploying support/peacekeeping forces. French proposal (via AP) suggests deployment in central Ukraine along Dnipro River, away from frontline. Other options: training roles further west or in neighboring countries. (Source: AP via RBC-Ukraine, Operatsia Z). HIGH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE.
  • North Korean Support (Claim): Alleged deployment of ~3000 additional NK soldiers to Russia (Jan-Feb), increased weapon shipments including 170mm Koksan SPGs, 240mm MLRS (220 units), rockets, artillery, ammunition. (Source: SK JCS via AP, ASTRA). Requires verification, but aligns with previous reports.
  • Russian Tactics & Equipment: Continued heavy use of KABs, FPV/kamikaze drones. RU forces reportedly using Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) in coordination with drones for reconnaissance and potentially assault/destruction of positions (Kharkiv Oblast). Use of fiber-optic FPV drones (Kursk, Pokrovsk, Toretsk), Orlan-30 reported. RU Vega Spetsnaz unit shown using drones against UA positions, Bradley, MaxxPro. Ongoing field modification/up-armoring. Description of new Pantsir-SM-SV tracked air defense system (80km detection/40km engagement) claimed to be in use. (Sources: Basurin, Kotsnews, Dva Mayora, Dnevnik Desantnika).
  • Ukrainian Tactics & Equipment: Reported use of fiber-optic controlled FPV drones resistant to EW (Azov Brigade, Toretsk direction). Destruction of RU MT-LB with secondary explosion by "Magyar's Birds" FPV drone. 63rd Brigade reports hitting RU tank. FPV drone training reported in Kyiv schools
Previous (2025-03-27 10:32:28Z)

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