Military Situation Analysis: March 26, 2025, 22:01 UTC

I. Overall Operational Assessment

• Operational Tempo: High-intensity combat operations continue across eastern, southern fronts, and the northern border area (Kursk direction).
• Primary Russian Offensive Focus: The Pokrovsk direction endures the most intense pressure, with significant Russian resource commitment leading to incremental gains amid heavy fighting. Intense Russian offensive actions are also reported in the Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Lyman, Huliaipole, and Kursk directions.
• Air & Drone Warfare:
  • Russia maintains large-scale aerial assaults, predominantly using Shahed-type UAVs targeting multiple regions simultaneously.
  • A major ongoing attack focuses on Kharkiv and Dnipro, causing significant infrastructure damage (including energy facilities) and civilian casualties. Ukrainian air defence is actively engaged.
  • Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes remain a persistent threat along frontlines and border areas (63 KABs reported used today).
  • Massive kamikaze drone usage reported (1112 strikes claimed by UGS today).

II. Major Frontline Developments (Derived from UGS 22:00 Report & Recent Updates)

• Overall Clashes (Since Start of Day): 208 combat engagements reported across all fronts.

• Russian Strikes (Since Start of Day): 47 aviation strikes (63 KABs), 1112 kamikaze drone strikes, >4800 artillery shelling incidents recorded.

• Pokrovsk Direction (Highest Intensity):

  • 87 Russian offensive actions reported throughout the day (areas include Olexandropil, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novoukrainka, Vidrodzhennia, Kotlyne, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Novoserhiivka, Pokrovsk, Preobrazhenka). One engagement ongoing as of 22:00 local time.
  • Claimed Ukrainian Successes (UGS): Significant Russian losses claimed: ~293 personnel (177 KIA), 1 tank, 10 vehicles, 8 motorcycles, 6 UAV control points, 2 portable EW stations, 5 satellite terminals, 1 mortar destroyed today.

• Toretsk Direction:

  • 19 Russian attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defenses repelled near Toretsk, Dachne, Krymske, and Dyliivka.

• Novopavlivsk Direction:

  • 25 Russian attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, and Vesele.

• Lyman Direction:

  • 14 Russian attacks towards Kopanky, Yampolivka, Novoserhiivka, Nove, Kolodiazi, Novomykhailivka. 13 repelled, one ongoing.

• Huliaipole Direction:

  • 16 Russian assaults towards Rivnopil, Novosilka, Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, Novopil. Air strikes on Novopil. 15 attacks repelled, one ongoing.

• Siversk Direction:

  • 6 Russian attacks stopped near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka. Five engagements ongoing.

• Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):

  • 9 combat engagements near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, Lobkove, Shcherbaky. One ongoing. Air strikes on Komyshuvakha, Novoandriivka, Kamianske.

• Kramatorsk Direction (Includes Chasiv Yar):

  • 4 Russian attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Bila Hora stopped. Persistent assaults on Chasiv Yar continue.

• Kupiansk Direction:

  • 4 Russian attempts near Holubivka, Zahryzove. One ongoing.
  • Russian Claim: Destruction of Starlink system and UAV control antennas reported via FPV drone strike in the area (Requires verification).

• Kharkiv Direction:

  • 2 Russian assaults near Vovchansk stopped. (See Section III for ongoing city attack).

• Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):

  • 2 Russian attacks successfully stopped.

III. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity (Focus on Ongoing Events)

• Massive Shahed UAV Attack (ONGOING):
  • Kharkiv City: Major ongoing attack. At least 12 simultaneous impacts reported earlier (Mayor Terekhov). Confirmed impacts, fires in civilian non-residential infrastructure (Kyivskyi district), residential buildings, and significant damage to energy infrastructure (co-generation plant hit). A large fire (2500 sqm) reported in a production building.
    • Casualties (Confirmed): Preliminarily 9 injured in Kharkiv City (DSNS/Tsaplienko).
  • Zolochiv (Kharkiv Oblast): Drone strike confirmed between 20:40-21:05 UTC. 1 house destroyed, at least 12 damaged, admin building, stadium, power lines hit.
    • Casualties (Confirmed): 8 injured/affected (3 hospitalized with shrapnel wounds incl. 18yo girl, 26yo brother, 67yo woman; 5 acute stress reactions incl. 4yo girl). This updates earlier figures.
  • Dnipro: Major ongoing attack. Multiple fires confirmed affecting cars and infrastructure objects. Casualties being ascertained. Videos confirm large fires/explosions.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Ukrainian Air Defence active (OVA). Multiple UAV groups moving from Chernihiv/Sumy.
  • Other Regions Under Threat/Attack (Ukrainian Air Force / Vanek Updates, ~21:52 UTC):
    • Mykolaiv: UAVs moving towards Novyi Buh.
    • Dnipropetrovsk: UAV over Kryvyi Rih (AA active). UAVs moving North past Nikopol. Threat warning for Nikopol.
    • Kirovohrad: UAVs moving from Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv directions. Threat warning for Kropyvnytskyi, Alexandria.
    • Poltava: UAVs moving towards Cherkasy Oblast. Threat warning for Kremenchuk, Myrhorod.
    • Cherkasy: UAVs entering from Poltava, heading west.
    • Sumy/Chernihiv: UAVs near Konotop moving West towards Kyiv Oblast. Threat warning for Konotop.
    • Zhytomyr: UAVs moving west from Kyiv Oblast. Threat warning for Zhytomyr.
• Ballistic Missile Threat: Persistent threat noted in northern oblasts.
• Ukrainian Strike Confirmation (UGS): Successful strike confirmed on Russian Command Post (9th MRR/18th MRD) near Viktorivka-Uspenivka (Kursk Oblast, RU territory), eliminating a Battalion Commander.

IV. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)

• Kursk Direction:
  • UGS Report (22:00): 25 combat clashes today. Heavy Russian artillery (340 shellings, 8 MLRS) and air strikes (12 strikes, 15 KABs). Ukrainian forces (31st Mech, 34th Coast Def, 105th Border Guard, 80th & 95th Air Assault Brigades) noted for holding against superior forces and inflicting significant losses.
  • Ukrainian Command Post Strike: Confirmed by UGS (see Section III).
• Sumy Oblast: Ongoing drone attacks. Ballistic missile impact earlier. Mandatory evacuation ordered for 4 villages in Krasnopillia community previously.

V. Logistics, Support, and International Developments

• French Military Aid: €2 billion package previously confirmed.
• North Korean Artillery: M1989 "Koksan" SPGs previously sighted in N. Occupied Crimea.
• EU Aid Plan Obstruction (Reported): Politico reports France, Italy, and Spain are potentially hindering an EU plan for increased defense spending (including joint borrowing) intended partly to support arms procurement for Ukraine, due to concerns over national debt levels.

VI. Critical Infrastructure

• Energy Infrastructure: Major ongoing Russian drone attacks targeting infrastructure in Kharkiv (co-generation plant confirmed hit, power lines damaged in Zolochiv) and Dnipro.
• Ukrainian Railway Disruption: Ukrzaliznytsia website/app remains non-functional (Day 4) due to cyberattack.

VII. Other Developments

• Russian Training Activity: Video emerged showing Russian 68th Army Corps personnel conducting tactical live-fire training, including urban assault drills, at a range in occupied Donetsk Oblast.