Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 21:31 UTC
I. Overall Operational Assessment
Operational Tempo: High-intensity combat operations persist across eastern, southern, and northern border fronts.
Primary Russian Offensive Focus: The Pokrovsk direction remains the most active axis, with Russian forces committing significant resources and achieving incremental gains amidst heavy fighting. Intense pressure is also maintained on the Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Lyman, Huliaipole, and Kursk directions.
Air Warfare: Russia continues large-scale aerial assaults, primarily utilizing Shahed-type UAVs targeting multiple regions simultaneously. A significant ongoing attack is focused on Kharkiv and Dnipro, causing infrastructure damage and civilian casualties. Ukrainian air defence systems are actively engaged. KAB strikes remain a persistent threat along frontlines and border areas.
II. Major Updates & Frontline Activity (Derived from UGS 22:00 Report & Supporting Data)
Overall Clashes (Since Start of Day): 208 combat engagements reported across all fronts.
Russian Strikes (Since Start of Day): 47 aviation strikes (utilizing 63 KABs), 1112 kamikaze drone strikes, and over 4800 artillery shelling incidents recorded against Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
Pokrovsk Direction (Highest Intensity):
UGS Report: 87 Russian offensive actions throughout the day in areas including Olexandropil, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novoukrainka, Vidrodzhennia, Kotlyne, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Novoserhiivka, Pokrovsk, and Preobrazhenka. One engagement ongoing as of 22:00 local time.
UGS Report: 19 Russian attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defenses near Toretsk, Dachne, Krymske, and Dyliivka.
Other Reports: Ukrainian Border Guards previously claimed repelling a mechanized assault east of Kurdiumivka. Russian sources claim minor advances near Toretsk mine.
Novopavlivsk Direction:
UGS Report: 25 Russian attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, and Vesele.
Russian Claims: Claimed pressure and advances near Rozlyv.
Lyman Direction:
UGS Report: 14 Russian attacks attempting advances near Kopanky, Yampolivka, Novoserhiivka, towards Nove, Kolodiazi, and Novomykhailivka. 13 attacks repelled, one engagement ongoing.
Russian Claims: Previously claimed 2km advance west of Mirne, expansion of Zherebets river bridgehead, and effective start of battles for Krasnyi Lyman (~10km away).
Huliaipole Direction:
UGS Report: 16 Russian assaults towards Rivnopil, Novosilka, Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, and Novopil. Air strikes reported on Novopil. 15 attacks repelled, one engagement ongoing.
Siversk Direction:
UGS Report: 6 Russian attacks stopped near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, and Ivano-Dariivka. Five engagements ongoing.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
UGS Report: 9 combat engagements. Russian attempts to advance near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, Lobkove, and Shcherbaky. One engagement ongoing. Air strikes reported on Komyshuvakha, Novoandriivka, and Kamianske.
Russian Claims: Previously claimed control of Lobkove, southern Shcherbaky, and local advances near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka. Claimed Geran-2 strikes on UA UAV sites near Dolinskoye and Novoivanivka.
Kramatorsk Direction (Includes Chasiv Yar):
UGS Report: 4 Russian attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora stopped.
Other Reports: Persistent Russian assaults on Chasiv Yar reported. UA 24th Mech Bde used thermal FPVs. Russian sources claim continued storming efforts.
Kupiansk Direction:
UGS Report: 4 Russian attempts to dislodge UA units near Holubivka and Zahryzove. One engagement ongoing.
Kharkiv Direction:
UGS Report: 2 Russian assaults near Vovchansk stopped.
Other Reports: Ongoing massive Shahed drone attack on Kharkiv city (see Section III). OTU "Kharkiv" claimed prior FPV successes.
III. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity (Focus on Ongoing Events)
Massive Shahed UAV Attack (ONGOING):
Kharkiv:Major ongoing attack. At least 15 explosions reported earlier (Mayor Terekhov later stated >=12 simultaneous impacts). Confirmed impacts, fires in civilian non-residential infrastructure (Kyivskyi district), residential buildings, and damage to energy infrastructure (co-generation plant reported hit). Multiple videos confirm impacts/explosions.
Casualties (Kharkiv City & Zolochiv - CONFIRMED): Total 12 injured/affected in Kharkiv City (2 injured, 3 acute stress); 7 injured in Zolochiv (Kharkiv Oblast) from impact on residential building (3 explosive injuries including 14yo girl hospitalized, 4 acute stress). Data as of 21:00 UTC.
Tactics: Reported "swarm" tactic used. Reporter Tsaplienko confirms simultaneous impacts. Air Force warns Kharkiv residents to remain sheltered (21:06 UTC).
Dnipro:Major ongoing attack. Multiple fires confirmed by OVA Head Lysak (20:28, 21:04 UTC) affecting cars and infrastructure objects. Videos confirm large fires/explosions. Casualties being ascertained.
Kyiv Oblast: Multiple groups (up to 10 previously reported) moved from Chernihiv/Sumy. Ukrainian Air Defence active (OVA confirmation 21:08 UTC). UAV reported near Pereiaslav (Vanek 21:24 UTC).
Other Regions Under Threat/Attack (as of 21:24 UTC):
Mykolaiv: UAVs moving towards Novyi Buh.
Dnipropetrovsk: UAV over Kryvyi Rih (AA active). UAVs past Nikopol moving North. Air Force warns Nikopol residents (21:06 UTC).
Kirovohrad: UAV east of Kropyvnytskyi moving towards Alexandria.
Poltava: UAVs in Kremenchuk area, north Poltava moving West. Air Force warns Kremenchuk, Myrhorod residents (21:06, 21:20 UTC).
Sumy/Chernihiv: UAVs near Konotop moving West. Air Force warns Konotop residents (21:06 UTC). UAV south of Korosten (Zhytomyr Obl.) moving West (Vanek 21:24 UTC).
Ballistic Missile Threat: Persistent threat in northern oblasts following earlier impact near Sumy. UAF Command previously noted Patriot systems downed ~100 ballistic missiles targeting Ukraine (primarily Kyiv).
KAB Threat: Ongoing along frontlines and borders. UGS reports 63 KABs used today.
Mirage-2000: Effectiveness vs drones noted by Zelensky.
IV. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Kursk Direction:
UGS Report (22:00): 25 combat clashes today. Heavy Russian artillery (340 shellings, 8 MLRS) and air strikes (12 strikes, 15 KABs). Ukrainian forces (31st Mech, 34th Coast Def, 105th Border Guard, 80th & 95th Air Assault Brigades) noted for holding against superior forces and inflicting significant losses.
Ukrainian Claims: Successful strike on RU Command Post near Viktorivka-Uspenivka confirmed by UGS (see Section III).
Russian Claims: Previous claims of capturing Huyevo (northern part) and Kazachaya Loknya. Pressure claimed on Hoholiivka. MoD claimed neutralization ops ongoing, inflicting >230 UA casualties, destroying equipment in last 24h.
Reported RU Casualties (ASTRA, Mar 21-25): 1 KIA, 6 WIA reported in border areas (Konyshevka, Uspenovka, Neonilovka, Medvezhye, Goptarovka, Veseloye). Potentially corroborates UA strike near Uspenivka.
Sumy Oblast: Mandatory evacuation ordered for 4 villages in Krasnopillia community. Ballistic missile impact reported earlier today. Ongoing drone attacks.
Belgorod Oblast: Previous reports noted tense situation, limited activity due to fog. Fighting previously claimed near Demydovka, Popovka, Grafovka/Prilesye.
V. Logistics, Support, and Technology
French Military Aid: €2 billion package confirmed (Macron/Zelenskyy). Includes MILAN, MICA, Mistral, Mirage missiles, AMX-10RC, ammunition, co-production support. Zelensky discussed increasing Mirage-2000 numbers.
North Korean Artillery: M1989 "Koksan" SPGs sighted in N. Occupied Crimea.
European Anti-Drone Development: Airbus presented LOAD concept (modified Do-DT 25 target drones with AAMs). Prototype 2025, operational 2027. Aims for cost-effective mass drone counter, ITAR-free.
Russian Anti-Drone: Laser system deployment ordered (Medvedev viewing).
VI. Critical Infrastructure
Energy Infrastructure: Major ongoing Russian drone attacks targeting infrastructure in Kharkiv (co-generation plant confirmed hit) and Dnipro. Previous analysis confirmed damage to NPS "Kavkazskaya" (RU). Sudzha GIS (RU) reported still burning earlier.
Ukrainian Railway Disruption: Ukrzaliznytsia website/app still non-functional (Day 4) due to cyberattack.
VII. Diplomacy, Policy, Information Warfare
Ceasefire/Negotiations: Zelensky highlighted ongoing RU attacks, stated talk of easing pressure is inappropriate, noted US unconditional ceasefire proposal exists. Macron welcomed Trump initiative, stated UA agreed to 30-day unconditional ceasefire previously, awaiting RU reciprocation. Ukraine needs combat-ready EU troops, not peacekeepers (Zhovka). Russia maintains maximalist position on occupied territories.
Zelensky Statements: Condemned RU drone attacks on Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipro. Linked Shahed production to Iran. Stressed need for pressure on Russia. Made comments regarding Putin's age/mortality (potential info warfare).
