Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 21:00 UTC
I. Overall Operational Tempo
Intensity: High intensity combat persists across eastern and southern fronts. Russian forces maintain significant offensive pressure, notably in the Pokrovsk direction.
Air Warfare: Large-scale Russian air attacks ongoing, primarily utilizing Shahed-type UAVs.
Kharkiv: Massive Shahed drone attack ongoing with significant impacts, infrastructure damage (civilian non-residential infrastructure fire reported in Kyivskyi district, warehouse fire previously reported), and civilian casualties in Kharkiv city and Zolochiv (Kharkiv Oblast). At least 15 explosions reported in the city; some Russian sources claim 17-18 impacts. Multiple video confirmations of impacts and fires.
Dnipro: Shahed drone attack ongoing, resulting in a fire (confirmed by OVA Head Lysak).
Kyiv Oblast: Multiple groups (up to 10 reported) of Shahed drones moving from Chernihiv/Sumy Oblasts towards Kyiv Oblast. AA activity likely near Vyshhorod/Brovary.
Other Regions: Shahed drone groups moving towards/through Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk (Kryvyi Rih, Nikopol, Kamianske, Samar area, Alexandria area), Kirovohrad, Poltava (Mirhorod, Kremenchuk, Poltava suburbs), Sumy (Okhtyrka, Konotop, Shostka), Chernihiv, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Ukrainian air defence active in Zaporizhzhia.
Ballistic Missiles: Threat persists in northern oblasts following an earlier impact near Sumy. Ukrainian Air Force Command reports Patriot systems have downed approx. 100 ballistic missiles targeting Ukraine, primarily Kyiv.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Threat continues along frontlines and border areas.
Primary Russian Focus: The Pokrovsk direction remains the principal axis for Russian ground offensives. Significant activity also noted on Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Lyman, Huliaipole, Vremivka, Siversk, Orikhiv, and border directions (Kursk/Belgorod).
II. Frontline Activity
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the most active sector with high intensity engagements.
Ukrainian Reports: 53 Russian attacks reported near multiple settlements as of 14:00 UTC. FPV drones active. Situation described as extremely difficult. 144th SSO Center reportedly captured 9 RU soldiers (Mar 25). Russian POW captured (4th MRB).
Russian Claims: Continued claims of strikes and engagements. Difficulties noted N. Ocheretyne due to UA FPV drones hindering RU logistics despite RU EW.
Ukrainian Reports: 15 attacks reported near Toretsk area as of 14:00 UTC. Ukrainian Border Guards claim repelling RU mechanized assault east of Kurdiumivka (DeepState, 19:34 UTC).
Russian Claims: Claimed minor advances near Toretsk mine and stadium. Fighting claimed near Panteleimonivka.
Ukrainian Reports: 3 attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar area as of 14:00 UTC. UA 24th Mech Bde reported using thermal FPVs against RU assault groups.
Russian Claims: Claimed continued storming of Shevchenko microdistrict and advance SE of Stupochky. Artillery strike claimed disrupting UA fortification efforts.
Novopavlivsk (Yuzhno-Donetske) Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: 17 Russian attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, Vesele as of 14:00 UTC.
Russian Claims: Claimed pressure N/S of Rozlyv and advances near Rozlyv. Ongoing drone strikes targeting UA personnel/equipment.
Lyman Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: Five Russian attacks repelled near Kopanky, Yampolivka area as of 14:00 UTC. 63rd Mech Bde claimed downing 5 RU drones. Claimed downing of RU Zala UAV (STERNENKO, 20:27 UTC).
Russian Claims: Claimed 2km advance west of recently captured Mirne, along heights bypassing Kolodezi southwards. Claim expansion of bridgehead on right bank of Zherebets river (>11km wide, >5.5km deep). Claimed battles for Krasnyi Lyman (~10km away) have effectively begun (Voenkor Kotenok, 19:37 UTC). 144th MRD claims destruction of UA equipment via drones (Starshe Eddy, 19:47 UTC). Earlier claim of 500m advance near Yampolivka.
Huliaipole Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: 15 Russian assaults repelled near Rivnopil, Novosilka area as of 14:00 UTC.
Vremivka (Velykonovosilkivske) Direction:
Russian Claims: Claimed mining road, disabling MaxxPro. Claimed advance towards center of Vilne Pole and from Pryvilne towards Vilne Pole. Claimed drone strike destruction of M113 with troops near Urozhainoye (MoD).
Siversk Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: 7 Russian attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske area as of 14:00 UTC.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
Ukrainian Reports: 7 Russian attacks stopped near Mali Shcherbaky area as of 14:00 UTC.
Russian Claims: Intense engagements reported near Lobkove, Stepove, Male Shcherbaky. Elements of 108th, 247th Airborne claim control of Lobkove, southern Shcherbaky. Local advances claimed near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka. Geran-2 strike claimed on alleged UA UAV prep site near Dolinskoye and alleged 65th Bde UAV warehouse near Novoivanivka (Voin DV, 19:59 UTC).
Kharkiv Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: Two Russian assaults towards Vovchansk repelled (UGS, 14:00 UTC). OTU "Kharkiv" claims night FPV strikes by 429th UAV Regt destroyed/damaged multiple RU vehicles and artillery pieces. Training activities ongoing.
Russian Claims: FPV drone strikes claimed destroying UA infantry movements (Sever Group). RU 200th Bde claims drone strike destroyed UA troops dismounted from AFV.
Kupiansk Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: Three Russian attempts repelled near Holubivka, Zahryzove as of 14:00 UTC.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):
Ukrainian Reports: One Russian attack stopped (UGS, 14:00 UTC). Drone strikes reported preventing RU personnel river crossing.
Russian Claims: Claims of artillery and ATGM strikes.
Other Claims:
UA 28th Mech Bde claims: 7 RU personnel killed, T-72 damaged, LAT destroyed, Murom-M system destroyed (Operativnyi ZSU, 19:51 UTC).
III. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Current Threats (As of 21:00 UTC):
UAV Threat (Kharkiv): ONGOING ATTACK. Massive Shahed attack ongoing. At least 15 explosions reported (O. Syniehubov, 19:26 UTC; TASS 19:52). Impacts confirmed in Kyivskyi district and city center. Damage to multi-story residential buildings and civilian infrastructure (civilian non-residential building fire, warehouse fire). Multiple videos confirm impacts/explosions. Russian sources report "extremely sluggish" Ukrainian air defence activity and claim 17-18 total strikes.
Casualties (Kharkiv City & Zolochiv - UPDATED): Total 12 people injured or affected confirmed by Head of OVA O. Syniehubov.
Kharkiv City: 2 injured (25yo M, 70yo F); 3 with acute stress reaction (79yo F, 57yo F, 31yo M) (Syniehubov 20:13).
Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast: Shahed impact on residential building. 7 injured (3 explosive injuries, 4 acute stress reaction). Includes 14-year-old girl hospitalized in moderate condition (Syniehubov 20:13, 20:43, 21:00).
Vectors: Multiple UAV groups reported heading towards/through Kharkiv and Izium district (Nikolaevskiy Vanek, UA Air Force). New groups reported entering Kharkiv Oblast (UA Air Force 20:42). Tactic described as "swarm" to overwhelm air defences (Kovalenko/CPD via RBC 19:57).
UAV Threat (Kyiv Oblast - UPDATED): Multiple groups (up to 10) moving from Chernihiv/Sumy towards Kyiv Oblast. Potential AA activity near Vyshhorod/Brovary (UA Air Force 20:42, Vanek 20:46). Groups reported transiting eastern Kyiv Oblast (Vanek 20:46).
UAV Threat (Dnipro/Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - UPDATED):ONGOING ATTACK IN DNIPRO. Fire reported following attack (Lysak 20:28, RBC 20:41). Threat active across oblast. Groups heading towards Kryvyi Rih district (3 UAVs reported moving into Kirovohrad Oblast), Pokrov/Nikopol area, Kamianske (multiple groups reported), Samar area (2 UAVs reported), Alexandria area (2 UAVs reported) (UA Air Force 19:51, 20:12; Nikolaevskiy Vanek 20:07, 20:46). UAV reported on Kherson/Dnipropetrovsk border (UA Air Force 20:12).
UAV Threat (Poltava Oblast - UPDATED): UAV group from Sumy moving towards Poltava Oblast (UA Air Force 19:58). UAV reported near Mirhorod (UA Air Force 20:12, Nikolaevskiy Vanek 20:07). Several groups heading towards Kremenchuk (UA Air Force 20:42). 1 UAV south of Kremenchuk moving NW; 1 west of Poltava moving S; 1 entering from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Vanek 20:46). UAV reported in Poltava suburbs (UA Air Force 20:42).
UAV Threat (Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts - UPDATED): Several groups from Sumy moving towards Chernihiv Oblast (UA Air Force 19:20, 19:49) and Kyiv Oblast (UA Air Force 20:42). Multiple groups heading towards Chernihiv city (UA Air Force 19:58, Nikolaevskiy Vanek 20:07). Groups reported on Chernihiv/Sumy border moving SW (UA Air Force 20:12). UAVs reported near Okhtyrka (4), Nizhyn (2, moving SW), Konotop (6), west of Shostka (1) (Vanek 20:46).
UAV Threat (Kirovohrad Oblast - UPDATED): UAVs reported moving from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Kirovohrad Oblast (UA Air Force, 20:00, 20:12). 3 UAVs reported entering from Kryvyi Rih area (Nikolaevskiy Vanek 20:07). 2 UAVs reported near Alexandria (Vanek 20:46).
UAV Threat (Zaporizhzhia): Air raid alert active. Enemy attack UAVs reported moving towards Zaporizhzhia city and through Pokrov/Nikopol area. Ukrainian Air Defence active (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 19:43 UTC).
UAV Threat (Mykolaiv/Kherson Oblasts - UPDATED): New groups entering via Kherson towards Mykolaiv Oblast (UA Air Force 20:42). 6 UAVs reported in Berislavskyi district (Kherson) (Vanek 20:46).
Ballistic Missile Threat: Threat persists in northern oblasts. Earlier impact reported near Sumy. Air raid alert ended in Kyiv. Ukrainian AF Command reports Patriot systems have downed approx. 100 ballistic missiles targeting Ukraine, mostly Kyiv (Tsaplienko quoting Ihnat, 20:21 UTC).
Overnight Activity Summary (Mar 25-26): UA claimed 56 Shaheds downed out of 117 (plus imitators). Significant damage reported in Kryvyi Rih and Okhtyrka (Sumy).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Activity & Claims:
Mirage-2000: Zelensky noted effectiveness vs drones, discussed increasing numbers with Macron (Zelensky/Official 19:42).
Patriot Effectiveness: AF Command claims ~100 ballistic missiles downed by Patriots, mainly targeting Kyiv (Tsaplienko quoting Ihnat, 20:21 UTC).
Drone Strikes: Successful strike claimed on RU Command Post (9th MRR/18th MRD) near Viktorivka-Uspenivka (RU territory, Kursk Oblast), killing Bn Cmdr (UGS 20:16, Operativnyi ZSU 20:27, RBC 20:43). Continued claims of successful FPV strikes (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Kherson, Kharkiv, Kursk).
Counter-Drone: UA 63rd Brigade claimed downing 5 RU drones (Lyman). UA Air Defence active in Zaporizhzhia. Claimed downing of Zala UAV (STERNENKO 20:27).
Russian Air/Drone Activity & Claims:
Shahed Launch Sites: Reports suggest 3 new launch sites near Primorsko-Akhtarsk.
Claimed Strikes: Ongoing massive Shahed attack on Kharkiv, Dnipro. Geran-2 strikes claimed near Dolinskoye and Novoivanivka (Zaporizhzhia region) targeting alleged UA UAV prep/storage sites (Voin DV, 19:59 UTC). MoD claims engaging 143 UA concentration areas. RU MoD claims shooting down 2 JDAMs, 1 HIMARS projectile, 58 UA UAVs in last 24h (MoD Russia 20:27). Claims drone strike destroyed M113 near Urozhainoye. Claims drone strike destroyed dismounted UA troops (200th Bde).
Drone Development: RU source claimed successful use of Moscow-produced "Chernika-2" drones due to EW evasion.
Ukrainian Claims: Successful strike claimed on RU Command Post (9th MRR/18th MRD) near Viktorivka-Uspenivka (RU territory, Kursk Oblast), killing Bn Cmdr (UGS 20:16, Operativnyi ZSU 20:27, RBC 20:43). Ukrainian SSO "Faust" (Claim): Significant equipment destruction claimed in Kursk Oblast via FPVs.
Russian Claims: Claim capture of northern part of Huyevo (Voenkor Kotenok, 19:33 UTC). Pressure claimed on southern Hoholiivka with slight advance. Sudzha Gas Infrastructure Station (GIS) reported still burning. Claimed repelling UA attacks on Belgorod front; specific claims of destroying UA equipment/personnel in Sumy Oblast border areas. RU MoD claims neutralization operations ongoing in Kursk region, inflicting >230 UA casualties, destroying tank, APC, AFV, 6 vehicles, EW station, UAV CP, ammo depot in last 24h. Claim liberation of Kazachaya Loknya (MoD Russia 20:27). Reports of finding civilian bodies (incl. children) in "liberated" areas, blaming UA forces (Alex Parker 20:20 - High propaganda potential). RU MoD claims drone strike destroyed dismounted UA troops.
Reported RU Casualties (Mar 21-25, Kursk Border Area, ASTRA): 1 KIA (Konyshevka, possibly targeted house), 6 WIA (Uspenovka - 1 soldier, 1 border guard via drone; Neonilovka - 1 border guard via drone; Medvezhye - 1 soldier via drone; Goptarovka - 1 border guard via artillery; Veseloye - 1 soldier via mine). Note: Provides specific locations, potentially corroborates UA strike near Uspenivka.
Belgorod Oblast:
Russian Claims: Fog limiting ground/air activity, situation tense. Fighting previously reported near Demydovka, Popovka, Grafovka/Prilesye. Claimed fighting continues in Demydovka. Fundraising reported for drones for Spetsnaz operating in area.
Casualties/Info Ops: RU propagandist killed by mine; RU MFA blames Kyiv. Injured RU operator stabilized. Civilian injured by drone claim.
V. Logistics, Support, and Technology
North Korean Artillery: Confirmed sighting of M1989 "Koksan" SPGs and possible MLRS TLVs on train in N. Occupied Crimea.
French Military Aid: France announced a €2 billion military aid package (Macron/Zelenskyy 19:42). Includes: MILAN ATGMs, MICA & Mistral SAMs, missiles for Mirage aircraft, AMX-10RC, ammunition (incl. remotely operated), support for co-production. Zelensky confirmed discussion to increase Mirage-2000 numbers, noted their effectiveness vs drones (Zelensky/Official 19:42). Details provided (Tsaplienko 19:53).
US Military Airlift: Potential resumption suggested by C-17 flight Rzeszow-Kuwait.
US-Ukraine Relations: Potential US agreement on Ukrainian rare earth mineral resources reported, possible signing next week (RBC quoting Bessent, 20:23 UTC).
European Anti-Drone Development: Airbus presented concept for Low-cost Air Defence (LOAD) system based on modified Do-DT 25 target drones armed with AAMs. Prototype flight planned 2025, operational 2027. Aims for cost-effective counter to mass drone attacks, ITAR-free. (Dva Mayora 20:34).
Russian Anti-Drone/EW: Deployment of new AD systems (incl. laser) ordered (RVvoenkor 19:31). "Chernika-2" drone success claimed. Ongoing crowdfunding for drones (Dva Mayora 19:46).
Ukrainian Drone Development/Use: Active counter-drone ops (claim Zala downing). Continued offensive FPV use. Online weapons permits via Diia app noted. Fundraising continues (STERNENKO 19:46).
Russian Sanctions Evasion: Report alleges Russian national used fake Norwegian insurance company (Ro Marine) to cover 'shadow fleet' vessels.
VI. Critical Infrastructure
Energy Infrastructure:
RU Claims: Alleged UA attempts on Crimea gas storage, Bryansk/Kursk power lines. Sudzha GIS reported still burning. RU MoD claims UA continues strikes on RU energy infrastructure despite alleged Riyadh agreement (MoD Russia 20:27).
UA Targets: Confirmed major Russian strike on Sumy residential area (Mar 24); ongoing major drone attack on Kharkiv civilian infrastructure/residential areas (civilian non-residential infrastructure fire confirmed, O. Syniehubov 20:32). Fire reported in Dnipro infrastructure due to drone attack (Lysak 20:28).
Damage Assessment: Analysis of Mar 24/25 satellite imagery suggests 3/5 storage tanks destroyed, 2 damaged by fire at NPS "Kavkazskaya" (RU) following UA attack (CyberBoroshno 20:22).
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): Russia reiterates control is non-negotiable.
Ukrainian Railway Disruption: Ukrzaliznytsia website/app remain non-functional (4th day) due to cyberattack.
VII. Diplomacy, Policy, Information Warfare
Ceasefire/Negotiations:
Zelensky Statement (Mar 26): Highlighted ongoing Russian drone attacks (Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipro), civilian casualties, and Iran's role. Stated talk of easing sanctions/pressure on Russia is inappropriate. Noted US unconditional ceasefire proposal has been on the table for half a month. Emphasized need for pressure on Russia for diplomacy to work (Zelensky/Official 20:48, Operativnyi ZSU 20:54).
Zelensky-Macron Meeting (Paris, Mar 26): Discussions held. Macron announced €2bn aid package. Zelensky discussed Mirage-2000 increase.
French Position: Macron welcomes Trump's initiative, stated Ukraine agreed to 30-day unconditional ceasefire during Jeddah talks, awaits same from Russia. Macron stated all sanctions lifted only if Russia withdraws to international borders (RBC-Ukraine, 19:54 UTC).
Ukrainian Position: Zelensky stated Moscow trying to add conditions to Black Sea 'silence' agreement; expects US side to ensure unconditional nature. Deputy Head of OP Zhovka stated Ukraine needs combat-ready European troops, not peacekeepers (RVvoenkor quoting RFI 20:43).
Russian Stance: Lavrov stated Crimea, Donbas, Novorossiya are "closed questions". RU conditions for Black Sea moratorium reportedly include lifting EU sanctions (Tsaplienko quoting Rubio 20:03,
