Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 20:30 UTC
I. Overall Operational Tempo
Intensity: High intensity combat persists across eastern and southern fronts. Russian forces maintain significant offensive pressure, notably in the Pokrovsk direction.
Air Warfare: Large-scale Russian air attacks ongoing, primarily utilizing Shahed-type UAVs.
Kharkiv: Massive Shahed drone attack ongoing with significant impacts, infrastructure damage (warehouse fire reported), and civilian casualties in Kharkiv city and Zolochiv (Kharkiv Oblast). At least 15 explosions reported in the city. Multiple video confirmations of impacts.
Dnipro: Shahed drone attack reported, resulting in a fire.
Other Regions: Shahed drone groups moving towards/through Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk (Kryvyi Rih, Nikopol, Kamianske, Samar area), Kirovohrad, Poltava (Mirhorod area), Sumy (Konotop area), and Chernihiv Oblasts. Ukrainian air defence active in Zaporizhzhia. Multiple groups reported converging on Chernihiv.
Ballistic Missiles: Threat persists in northern oblasts following an earlier impact near Sumy. Ukrainian Air Force Command reports Patriot systems have downed approx. 100 ballistic missiles targeting Ukraine, primarily Kyiv.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Threat continues along frontlines and border areas.
Primary Russian Focus: The Pokrovsk direction remains the principal axis for Russian ground offensives. Significant activity also noted on Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Lyman, Huliaipole, Vremivka, Siversk, Orikhiv, and border directions (Kursk/Belgorod).
II. Frontline Activity
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the most active sector with high intensity engagements.
Ukrainian Reports: 53 Russian attacks reported near multiple settlements as of 14:00 UTC. FPV drones active. Situation described as extremely difficult. 144th SSO Center reportedly captured 9 RU soldiers (Mar 25). Russian POW captured (4th MRB).
Russian Claims: Continued claims of strikes and engagements. Difficulties noted N. Ocheretyne due to UA FPV drones hindering RU logistics despite RU EW.
Ukrainian Reports: 15 attacks reported near Toretsk area as of 14:00 UTC. Ukrainian Border Guards claim repelling RU mechanized assault east of Kurdiumivka (DeepState, 19:34 UTC).
Russian Claims: Claimed minor advances near Toretsk mine and stadium. Fighting claimed near Panteleimonivka.
Ukrainian Reports: 3 attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar area as of 14:00 UTC. UA 24th Mech Bde reported using thermal FPVs against RU assault groups.
Russian Claims: Claimed continued storming of Shevchenko microdistrict and advance SE of Stupochky. Artillery strike claimed disrupting UA fortification efforts.
Novopavlivsk (Yuzhno-Donetske) Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: 17 Russian attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, Vesele as of 14:00 UTC.
Russian Claims: Claimed pressure N/S of Rozlyv and advances near Rozlyv. Ongoing drone strikes targeting UA personnel/equipment.
Lyman Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: Five Russian attacks repelled near Kopanky, Yampolivka area as of 14:00 UTC. 63rd Mech Bde claimed downing 5 RU drones. Claimed downing of RU Zala UAV (STERNENKO, 20:27 UTC).
Russian Claims: Claimed 2km advance west of recently captured Mirne, along heights bypassing Kolodezi southwards. Claim expansion of bridgehead on right bank of Zherebets river (>11km wide, >5.5km deep). Claimed battles for Krasnyi Lyman (~10km away) have effectively begun (Voenkor Kotenok, 19:37 UTC). 144th MRD claims destruction of UA equipment via drones (Starshe Eddy, 19:47 UTC). Earlier claim of 500m advance near Yampolivka.
Huliaipole Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: 15 Russian assaults repelled near Rivnopil, Novosilka area as of 14:00 UTC.
Vremivka (Velykonovosilkivske) Direction:
Russian Claims: Claimed mining road, disabling MaxxPro. Claimed advance towards center of Vilne Pole and from Pryvilne towards Vilne Pole.
Siversk Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: 7 Russian attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske area as of 14:00 UTC.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
Ukrainian Reports: 7 Russian attacks stopped near Mali Shcherbaky area as of 14:00 UTC.
Russian Claims: Intense engagements reported near Lobkove, Stepove, Male Shcherbaky. Elements of 108th, 247th Airborne claim control of Lobkove, southern Shcherbaky. Local advances claimed near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka. Geran-2 strike claimed on alleged UA UAV prep site near Dolinskoye and alleged 65th Bde UAV warehouse near Novoivanivka (Voin DV, 19:59 UTC).
Kharkiv Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: Two Russian assaults towards Vovchansk repelled (UGS, 14:00 UTC). OTU "Kharkiv" claims night FPV strikes by 429th UAV Regt destroyed/damaged multiple RU vehicles and artillery pieces. Training activities ongoing.
Vectors: Multiple UAV groups reported heading towards/through Kharkiv and Izium district (Nikolaevskiy Vanek, UA Air Force). One group reported heading towards Kharkiv (UA Air Force 20:12). Tactic described as "swarm" to overwhelm air defences (Kovalenko/CPD via RBC 19:57).
UAV Threat (Dnipro): ONGOING ATTACK. UAVs directed at the city. Fire reported following attack (Lysak 20:28).
UAV Threat (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - UPDATED): Threat active. Groups heading towards Kryvyi Rih district (3 UAVs reported moving from Kryvyi Rih into Kirovohrad Oblast), Pokrov/Nikopol area, Kamianske (multiple groups reported), Samar area (2 UAVs reported) (UA Air Force 19:51, 20:12; Nikolaevskiy Vanek 20:07). UAV reported on Kherson/Dnipropetrovsk border (UA Air Force 20:12).
UAV Threat (Kirovohrad Oblast - UPDATED): UAVs reported moving from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Kirovohrad Oblast (UA Air Force, 20:00, 20:12). 3 UAVs reported entering from Kryvyi Rih area (Nikolaevskiy Vanek 20:07).
UAV Threat (Poltava Oblast - UPDATED): UAV group from Sumy moving towards Poltava Oblast (UA Air Force 19:58). UAV reported near Mirhorod (UA Air Force 20:12, Nikolaevskiy Vanek 20:07).
UAV Threat (Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts - UPDATED): Several groups from Sumy moving towards Chernihiv Oblast (UA Air Force 19:20, 19:49). Multiple groups heading towards Chernihiv city (UA Air Force 19:58, Nikolaevskiy Vanek 20:07). Groups reported on Chernihiv/Sumy border moving SW (UA Air Force 20:12). 1 UAV north of Konotop (Nikolaevskiy Vanek 20:07).
UAV Threat (Zaporizhzhia): Air raid alert active. Enemy attack UAVs reported moving towards Zaporizhzhia city and through Pokrov/Nikopol area. Ukrainian Air Defence active (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 19:43 UTC).
Ballistic Missile Threat: Threat persists in northern oblasts. Earlier impact reported near Sumy. Air raid alert ended in Kyiv. Ukrainian AF Command reports Patriot systems have downed approx. 100 ballistic missiles targeting Ukraine, mostly Kyiv (Tsaplienko quoting Ihnat, 20:21 UTC).
Overnight Activity Summary (Mar 25-26): UA claimed 56 Shaheds downed out of 117 (plus imitators). Significant damage reported in Kryvyi Rih and Okhtyrka (Sumy).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Activity & Claims:
Mirage-2000: Zelensky noted effectiveness vs drones, discussed increasing numbers with Macron (Zelensky/Official 19:42).
Patriot Effectiveness: AF Command claims ~100 ballistic missiles downed by Patriots, mainly targeting Kyiv (Tsaplienko quoting Ihnat, 20:21 UTC).
Drone Strikes: Successful strike claimed on RU Command Post (9th MRR/18th MRD) near Viktorivka-Uspenivka (RU territory), killing Bn Cmdr (UGS 20:16, Operativnyi ZSU 20:27). Continued claims of successful FPV strikes (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Kherson, Kharkiv, Kursk).
Counter-Drone: UA 63rd Brigade claimed downing 5 RU drones (Lyman). UA Air Defence active in Zaporizhzhia. Claimed downing of Zala UAV (STERNENKO 20:27).
Russian Air/Drone Activity & Claims:
Shahed Launch Sites: Reports suggest 3 new launch sites near Primorsko-Akhtarsk.
Claimed Strikes: Ongoing massive Shahed attack on Kharkiv, Dnipro. Geran-2 strikes claimed near Dolinskoye and Novoivanivka (Zaporizhzhia region) targeting alleged UA UAV prep/storage sites (Voin DV, 19:59 UTC). MoD claims engaging 143 UA concentration areas. RU MoD claims shooting down 2 JDAMs, 1 HIMARS projectile, 58 UA UAVs in last 24h (MoD Russia 20:27).
Drone Development: RU source claimed successful use of Moscow-produced "Chernika-2" drones due to EW evasion.
Ukrainian Claims: Successful strike claimed on RU Command Post (9th MRR/18th MRD) near Viktorivka-Uspenivka (RU territory), killing Bn Cmdr (UGS 20:16, Operativnyi ZSU 20:27). Ukrainian SSO "Faust" (Claim): Significant equipment destruction claimed in Kursk Oblast via FPVs.
Russian Claims: Claim capture of northern part of Huyevo (Voenkor Kotenok, 19:33 UTC). Pressure claimed on southern Hoholiivka with slight advance. Sudzha Gas Infrastructure Station (GIS) reported still burning. Claimed repelling UA attacks on Belgorod front; specific claims of destroying UA equipment/personnel in Sumy Oblast border areas. RU MoD claims neutralization operations ongoing in Kursk region, inflicting >230 UA casualties, destroying tank, APC, AFV, 6 vehicles, EW station, UAV CP, ammo depot in last 24h. Claim liberation of Kazachaya Loknya (MoD Russia 20:27). Reports of finding civilian bodies (incl. children) in "liberated" areas, blaming UA forces (Alex Parker 20:20 - High propaganda potential).
Belgorod Oblast:
Russian Claims: Fog limiting ground/air activity, situation tense. Fighting previously reported near Demydovka, Popovka, Grafovka/Prilesye. Claimed fighting continues in Demydovka. Fundraising reported for drones for Spetsnaz operating in area.
Casualties/Info Ops: RU propagandist killed by mine; RU MFA blames Kyiv. Injured RU operator stabilized. Civilian injured by drone claim.
V. Logistics, Support, and Technology
North Korean Artillery: Confirmed sighting of M1989 "Koksan" SPGs and possible MLRS TLVs on train in N. Occupied Crimea.
French Military Aid: France announced a €2 billion military aid package (Macron/Zelenskyy 19:42). Includes: MILAN ATGMs, MICA & Mistral SAMs, missiles for Mirage aircraft, AMX-10RC, ammunition (incl. remotely operated), support for co-production. Zelensky confirmed discussion to increase Mirage-2000 numbers, noted their effectiveness vs drones (Zelensky/Official 19:42). Details provided (Tsaplienko 19:53).
US Military Airlift: Potential resumption suggested by C-17 flight Rzeszow-Kuwait.
US-Ukraine Relations: Potential US agreement on Ukrainian rare earth mineral resources reported, possible signing next week (RBC quoting Bessent, 20:23 UTC).
Russian Anti-Drone/EW: Deployment of new AD systems (incl. laser) ordered (RVvoenkor 19:31). "Chernika-2" drone success claimed. Ongoing crowdfunding for drones (Dva Mayora 19:46).
Ukrainian Drone Development/Use: Active counter-drone ops (claim Zala downing). Continued offensive FPV use. Online weapons permits via Diia app noted. Fundraising continues (STERNENKO 19:46).
Russian Sanctions Evasion: Report alleges Russian national used fake Norwegian insurance company (Ro Marine) to cover 'shadow fleet' vessels.
VI. Critical Infrastructure
Energy Infrastructure:
RU Claims: Alleged UA attempts on Crimea gas storage, Bryansk/Kursk power lines. Sudzha GIS reported still burning. RU MoD claims UA continues strikes on RU energy infrastructure despite alleged Riyadh agreement (MoD Russia 20:27).
UA Targets: Confirmed major Russian strike on Sumy residential area (Mar 24); ongoing major drone attack on Kharkiv civilian infrastructure/residential areas. Fire reported in Dnipro infrastructure due to drone attack (Lysak 20:28).
Damage Assessment: Analysis of Mar 24/25 satellite imagery suggests 3/5 storage tanks destroyed, 2 damaged by fire at NPS "Kavkazskaya" (RU) following UA attack (CyberBoroshno 20:22).
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): Russia reiterates control is non-negotiable.
Ukrainian Railway Disruption: Ukrzaliznytsia website/app remain non-functional (4th day) due to cyberattack.
VII. Diplomacy, Policy, Information Warfare
Ceasefire/Negotiations:
Zelensky-Macron Meeting (Paris, Mar 26): Discussions held. Macron announced €2bn aid package. Zelensky discussed Mirage-2000 increase.
French Position: Macron welcomes Trump's initiative, stated Ukraine agreed to 30-day unconditional ceasefire during Jeddah talks, awaits same from Russia. Macron stated all sanctions lifted only if Russia withdraws to international borders (RBC-Ukraine, 19:54 UTC).
Ukrainian Position: Zelensky stated Moscow trying to add conditions to Black Sea 'silence' agreement; expects US side to ensure unconditional nature.
Russian Stance: Lavrov stated Crimea, Donbas, Novorossiya are "closed questions". RU conditions for Black Sea moratorium reportedly include lifting EU sanctions (Tsaplienko quoting Rubio 20:03, Colonelcassad analysis 19:50).
US Position/Reports: US Treasury head Janet Yellen reportedly stated possible consideration of easing RU sanctions / SWIFT reconnection in context of Ukraine settlement (TASS/RVvoenkor citing Fox News, 19:35, 19:42 UTC). US Treasury official Bessent confirmed reconnection to SWIFT is "on the table" depending on peace process progress (RBC 20:18). US Special Envoy Kellogg stated neither side will be fully satisfied. US Ambassador Darchiev arrived in US (TASS 20:10, ASTRA 20:13).
European Troop Deployment ("Coalition of the Willing"):
Zelensky: Stated discussions ongoing with general staffs on format/numbers/capabilities. Question is which countries are "really ready". Contingent seen primarily for controlling future peace. Summit in France Mar 27.
Macron's Concept: Envisions European deterrence force post-ceasefire, monitoring from strategic bases (not frontline), signaling joint response if RU attacks again. Franco-British text expected soon (RBC-Ukraine, 19:49 UTC).
NATO Stance: Sec Gen Rutte stated no normalization with Russia post-war. Death of 4 US soldiers in Lithuania during exercises confirmed.
Russian Internal Security/Politics: Assassination attempt on MoD officer reported near Moscow; alleged assailant found dead (RVvoenkor, 19:58 UTC). Putin appoints acting governors for Sverdlovsk (Pasler) and Orenburg (Solntsev) Oblasts (confirmed by decrees, TASS 19:39-19:41). Ambassador Darchiev arrives in US.
Russian Info Ops: Continued narratives blaming UA for targeting journalists/civilians/energy infrastructure. Highlighting advanced weapons/claims (laser weapons, MoD daily brief). Putin emphasizing veterans/Sudzha. Lavrov claims re: UA leadership. Memorials for deceased correspondent. Moskalkova claims re: Kursk residents. RU MoD video promoting rescue of wounded soldier. Analysis suggesting US-RU talks bypass EU/UA (Colonelcassad 19:50). Recruitment propaganda video noted (Alex Parker 19:42). Claims of finding civilian bodies in Kursk, blaming UA (Alex Parker 20:20).
Ukrainian Internal: Ombudsman raises concerns about TCC detentions/beatings. Ongoing fundraising efforts (drones, vehicles, armor). Patriot system effectiveness highlighted (Tsaplienko 20:21).
Other Geopolitical: Estonia bans Russian/Belarusian citizens from voting in local elections (RBC-Ukraine, 19:40 UTC). Armenia parliament reportedly passed bill on intention to join EU. US conducted strikes in Yemen (Al Masirah via TASS 19:54). US intelligence report highlights China as primary threat.
