Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 20:00 UTC
I. Overall Operational Tempo
Intensity: High intensity combat persists across eastern and southern fronts. Russian forces maintain significant offensive pressure, notably in the Pokrovsk direction.
Air Warfare: Large-scale Russian air attacks ongoing.
Kharkiv: Massive Shahed drone attack continues with significant impacts, infrastructure damage (warehouse fire), and civilian casualties in Kharkiv city and Zolochiv (Kharkiv Oblast). At least 15 explosions reported in the city.
Other Regions: Shahed drone groups moving towards Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk (Kryvyi Rih, Nikopol), Kirovohrad, Poltava, and Chernihiv Oblasts. Ukrainian air defence active in Zaporizhzhia.
Ballistic Missiles: Threat persists in northern oblasts following an earlier impact near Sumy.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Threat continues along frontlines and border areas, with launches reported towards Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions earlier.
Primary Russian Focus: The Pokrovsk direction remains the principal axis for Russian ground offensives. Significant activity also noted on Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Lyman, Huliaipole, Vremivka, Siversk, Orikhiv, and border directions (Kursk/Belgorod).
II. Frontline Activity
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the most active sector with high intensity engagements.
Ukrainian Reports: 53 Russian attacks reported near multiple settlements as of 14:00 UTC. FPV drones active. Situation described as extremely difficult. 144th SSO Center reportedly captured 9 RU soldiers (Mar 25). Russian POW captured (4th MRB).
Russian Claims: Continued claims of strikes and engagements. Difficulties noted N. Ocheretyne due to UA FPV drones hindering RU logistics despite RU EW.
Ukrainian Reports: 15 attacks reported near Toretsk area as of 14:00 UTC. Ukrainian Border Guards claim repelling RU mechanized assault east of Kurdiumivka (DeepState, 19:34 UTC).
Russian Claims: Claimed minor advances near Toretsk mine and stadium. Fighting claimed near Panteleimonivka.
Ukrainian Reports: 3 attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar area as of 14:00 UTC. UA 24th Mech Bde reported using thermal FPVs against RU assault groups.
Russian Claims: Claimed continued storming of Shevchenko microdistrict and advance SE of Stupochky. Artillery strike claimed disrupting UA fortification efforts.
Novopavlivsk (Yuzhno-Donetske) Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: 17 Russian attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, Vesele as of 14:00 UTC.
Russian Claims: Claimed pressure N/S of Rozlyv and advances near Rozlyv. Ongoing drone strikes targeting UA personnel/equipment.
Lyman Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: Five Russian attacks repelled near Kopanky, Yampolivka area as of 14:00 UTC. 63rd Mech Bde claimed downing 5 RU drones.
Russian Claims: Claimed 2km advance west of recently captured Mirne, along heights bypassing Kolodezi southwards. Claim expansion of bridgehead on right bank of Zherebets river (>11km wide, >5.5km deep). Claimed battles for Krasnyi Lyman (~10km away) have effectively begun (Voenkor Kotenok, 19:37 UTC). 144th MRD claims destruction of UA equipment via drones (Starshe Eddy, 19:47 UTC). Earlier claim of 500m advance near Yampolivka.
Huliaipole Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: 15 Russian assaults repelled near Rivnopil, Novosilka area as of 14:00 UTC.
Vremivka (Velykonovosilkivske) Direction:
Russian Claims: Claimed mining road, disabling MaxxPro. Claimed advance towards center of Vilne Pole and from Pryvilne towards Vilne Pole.
Siversk Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: 7 Russian attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske area as of 14:00 UTC.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
Ukrainian Reports: 7 Russian attacks stopped near Mali Shcherbaky area as of 14:00 UTC.
Russian Claims: Intense engagements reported near Lobkove, Stepove, Male Shcherbaky. Elements of 108th, 247th Airborne claim control of Lobkove, southern Shcherbaky. Local advances claimed near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka. Geran-2 strike claimed on alleged UA UAV prep site near Dolinskoye and alleged 65th Bde UAV warehouse near Novoivanivka (Voin DV, 19:59 UTC).
Kharkiv Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: Two Russian assaults towards Vovchansk repelled (UGS, 14:00 UTC). OTU "Kharkiv" claims night FPV strikes by 429th UAV Regt destroyed/damaged multiple RU vehicles and artillery pieces. Training activities ongoing.
Ukrainian Reports: Three Russian attempts repelled near Holubivka, Zahryzove as of 14:00 UTC.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):
Ukrainian Reports: One Russian attack stopped (UGS, 14:00 UTC). Drone strikes reported preventing RU personnel river crossing.
Russian Claims: Claims of artillery and ATGM strikes.
Other Claims:
UA 28th Mech Bde claims: 7 RU personnel killed, T-72 damaged, LAT destroyed, Murom-M system destroyed (Operativnyi ZSU, 19:51 UTC).
III. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Current Threats (As of 20:00 UTC):
UAV Threat (Kharkiv): ONGOING ATTACK. Massive Shahed attack ongoing. At least 15 explosions reported (O. Syniehubov, 19:26 UTC). Impacts confirmed in Kyivskyi district and city center. Damage to multi-story residential buildings and civilian infrastructure (warehouse fire).
Casualties (Kharkiv City): 12-year-old girl injured and hospitalized; 25-year-old man injured (Kyivskyi district).
Vectors: Multiple UAV groups reported heading towards/through Kharkiv and Izium district (Nikolaevskiy Vanek, UA Air Force).
UAV Threat (Zaporizhzhia): Air raid alert active. Enemy attack UAVs reported moving towards Zaporizhzhia city and through Pokrov/Nikopol area. Ukrainian Air Defence active (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 19:43 UTC).
UAV Threat (Dnipropetrovsk): Threat active. Groups heading towards Kryvyi Rih district and Pokrov/Nikopol area (UA Air Force 19:51, Nikolaevskiy Vanek).
UAV Threat (Kirovohrad): UAVs reported moving from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Kirovohrad Oblast (UA Air Force, 20:00 UTC).
UAV Threat (Sumy/Chernihiv/Poltava): UAVs reported moving from Sumy towards Chernihiv Oblast (several groups). One group from Sumy towards Poltava Oblast (UA Air Force 19:20, 19:49, 19:58 UTC; Nikolaevskiy Vanek).
Ballistic Missile Threat: Threat persists in northern oblasts. Earlier impact reported near Sumy. Air raid alert ended in Kyiv.
KAB Threat: Russian tactical aviation remains active. Earlier launches towards eastern Kharkiv Oblast and Zaporizhzhia region.
Overnight Activity Summary (Mar 25-26): UA claimed 56 Shaheds downed out of 117 (plus imitators). Significant damage reported in Kryvyi Rih and Okhtyrka (Sumy).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Activity & Claims:
Mirage-2000: Zelensky noted effectiveness vs drones, discussed increasing numbers with Macron.
Drone Strikes: Continued claims of successful FPV strikes (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Kherson, Kharkiv, Kursk).
Counter-Drone: UA 63rd Brigade claimed downing 5 RU drones (Lyman). UA Air Defence active in Zaporizhzhia.
Russian Air/Drone Activity & Claims:
Shahed Launch Sites: Reports suggest 3 new launch sites near Primorsko-Akhtarsk.
Claimed Strikes: Ongoing massive Shahed attack on Kharkiv. Geran-2 strikes claimed near Dolinskoye and Novoivanivka (Zaporizhzhia region). MoD claims engaging 143 UA concentration areas.
Drone Development: RU source claimed successful use of Moscow-produced "Chernika-2" drones due to EW evasion.
Ukrainian SSO "Faust" (Claim): Significant equipment destruction claimed in Kursk Oblast via FPVs.
Russian Claims: Claim capture of northern part of Huyevo (Voenkor Kotenok, 19:33 UTC). Pressure claimed on southern Hoholiivka with slight advance. Sudzha Gas Infrastructure Station (GIS) reported still burning. Claimed repelling UA attacks on Belgorod front; specific claims of destroying UA equipment/personnel in Sumy Oblast border areas.
Belgorod Oblast:
Russian Claims: Fog limiting ground/air activity, situation tense. Fighting previously reported near Demydovka, Popovka, Grafovka/Prilesye. Claimed fighting continues in Demydovka. Fundraising reported for drones for Spetsnaz operating in area.
Casualties/Info Ops: RU propagandist killed by mine; RU MFA blames Kyiv. Injured RU operator stabilized. Civilian injured by drone claim.
V. Logistics, Support, and Technology
North Korean Artillery: Confirmed sighting of M1989 "Koksan" SPGs and possible MLRS TLVs on train in N. Occupied Crimea.
French Military Aid: France announced a €2 billion military aid package (Macron/Zelenskyy). Includes: MILAN ATGMs, MICA & Mistral SAMs, missiles for Mirage aircraft, AMX-10RC, ammunition (incl. remotely operated), support for co-production. Zelensky confirmed discussion to increase Mirage-2000 numbers, noted their effectiveness vs drones.
US Military Airlift: Potential resumption suggested by C-17 flight Rzeszow-Kuwait.
US-Ukraine Relations: Potential US agreement on Ukrainian mineral resources reported.
Russian Anti-Drone/EW: Deployment of new AD systems (incl. laser) ordered. "Chernika-2" drone success claimed. Ongoing crowdfunding for drones.
Ukrainian Drone Development/Use: Active counter-drone ops. Continued offensive FPV use. Online weapons permits via Diia app noted.
Russian Sanctions Evasion: Report alleges Russian national used fake Norwegian insurance company (Ro Marine) to cover 'shadow fleet' vessels.
VI. Critical Infrastructure
Energy Infrastructure:
RU Claims: Alleged UA attempts on Crimea gas storage, Bryansk/Kursk power lines. Sudzha GIS reported still burning.
UA Targets: Confirmed major Russian strike on Sumy residential area (Mar 24); ongoing major drone attack on Kharkiv civilian infrastructure/residential areas.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): Russia reiterates control is non-negotiable.
Ukrainian Railway Disruption: Ukrzaliznytsia website/app remain non-functional (4th day) due to cyberattack.
VII. Diplomacy, Policy, Information Warfare
Ceasefire/Negotiations:
Zelensky-Macron Meeting (Paris, Mar 26): Discussions held. Macron announced €2bn aid package. Zelensky discussed Mirage-2000 increase.
French Position: Macron welcomes Trump's initiative, stated Ukraine agreed to 30-day unconditional ceasefire during Jeddah talks, awaits same from Russia. Macron stated all sanctions lifted only if Russia withdraws to international borders (RBC-Ukraine, 19:54 UTC).
Ukrainian Position: Zelensky stated Moscow trying to add conditions to Black Sea 'silence' agreement; expects US side to ensure unconditional nature.
Russian Stance: Lavrov stated Crimea, Donbas, Novorossiya are "closed questions". RU conditions for Black Sea moratorium reportedly include lifting EU sanctions.
US Position/Reports: US Treasury head Janet Yellen reportedly stated possible consideration of easing RU sanctions / SWIFT reconnection in context of Ukraine settlement (TASS/RVvoenkor citing Fox News, 19:35, 19:42 UTC).
European Troop Deployment ("Coalition of the Willing"):
Zelensky: Stated discussions ongoing with general staffs on format/numbers/capabilities. Question is which countries are "really ready". Contingent seen primarily for controlling future peace. Summit in France Mar 27.
Macron's Concept: Envisions European deterrence force post-ceasefire, monitoring from strategic bases (not frontline), signaling joint response if RU attacks again (RBC-Ukraine, 19:49 UTC).
NATO Stance: Sec Gen Rutte stated no normalization with Russia post-war. Death of 4 US soldiers in Lithuania during exercises confirmed.
Russian Internal Security/Politics: Assassination attempt on MoD officer reported near Moscow; alleged assailant found dead (RVvoenkor, 19:58 UTC). Putin appoints acting governors for Sverdlovsk and Orenburg Oblasts (confirmed by decrees).
Russian Info Ops: Continued narratives blaming UA for targeting journalists/civilians. Highlighting advanced weapons/claims. Putin emphasizing veterans/Sudzha. Lavrov claims re: UA leadership. Memorials for deceased correspondent. Moskalkova claims re: Kursk residents. RU MoD video promoting rescue of wounded soldier. Analysis suggesting US-RU talks bypass EU/UA. Recruitment propaganda video noted.
Other Geopolitical: Estonia bans Russian/Belarusian citizens from voting in local elections (RBC-Ukraine, 19:40 UTC). Armenia parliament reportedly passed bill on intention to join EU. US conducted strikes in Yemen. US intelligence report highlights China as primary threat.
