Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 19:30 UTC
I. Overall Operational Tempo
Intensity: High intensity combat persists across the eastern and southern fronts. Russian forces maintain significant offensive pressure, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction.
Air Warfare: Large-scale Russian air attacks continue, featuring ongoing Shahed drone strikes targeting Kharkiv (significant impacts and casualties reported), Zaporizhzhia, and moving towards Dnipropetrovsk and Chernihiv. Ballistic missile threats were active, with impacts reported near Sumy. Guided aerial bombs (KABs) remain a threat along frontlines and border areas.
Primary Russian Focus: The Pokrovsk direction remains the principal axis for Russian offensive operations. Significant activity also noted on Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Huliaipole, Vremivka, Siversk, Orikhiv, and border directions (Kursk/Belgorod).
II. Frontline Activity
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the most active sector with high intensity engagements.
Ukrainian Reports: 53 Russian attacks reported near multiple settlements as of 14:00 UTC (UGS). 7 clashes ongoing at that time. FPV drones ("Flying Skull") reportedly destroyed 4 RU personnel (Sternenko, 16:45 UTC). Situation described as extremely difficult. 144th SSO Center reportedly captured 9 RU soldiers (Mar 25).
Russian Claims: Video purports to show drone strike on UA Bradley IFV during troop dismount (Basurin, 18:35 UTC). Video claims destruction of NATO equipment, infantry, artillery by "Center" group (RVvoenkor, 18:19 UTC, dated Mar 25). Difficult situation reported N. Ocheretyne due to UA FPV drones hindering RU logistics despite RU EW efforts; RU strikes claimed in Yablonivka, Yelyzovetivka, Kalynove (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:04 UTC). Claimed neutralization of UA personnel near Pokrovsk (RU MoD, 16:17 UTC).
Ukrainian Reports: 15 attacks reported near Toretsk, Dachne, Krymske, Dyliivka as of 14:00 UTC (UGS).
Russian Claims: 200m advance claimed near Toretsk mine and advance near stadium; no change near Shcherbynivka (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:39 UTC). Fighting claimed near Panteleimonivka (Dva Mayora, 03:41 UTC).
Ukrainian Reports: 3 attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Bila Hora as of 14:00 UTC (UGS). "Rarog" Bn (24th Mech Bde) reported using thermal FPVs against RU assault groups (Butusov Plus, 16:45 UTC).
Russian Claims: Drone strike claimed on UA ATV near Kostiantynivka (Poddybnyi, 17:51 UTC). Continued storming of Shevchenko microdistrict, advance SE of Stupochky claimed; UAVs hitting UA rear areas (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:39 UTC). Artillery strike claimed disrupting UA fortification efforts near Chasiv Yar; destruction of UA "Rarog" unit position and EW station claimed near Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV recon (TASS 03:48 UTC, Dnevnik Desantnika 04:04 UTC).
Novopavlivsk (Yuzhno-Donetske) Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: 17 Russian attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, Vesele as of 14:00 UTC (UGS).
Russian Claims: Pressure claimed N/S of Rozlyv, control of forest strip SE claimed, artillery strikes on Rozlyv, strike on UA position in Boharyr (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:39 UTC). Claimed 500m deep, 2.5km wide advance near Rozlyv (Dva Mayora, 03:41 UTC). Ongoing drone strikes targeting UA personnel/equipment (Voin DV, 04:15 UTC).
Huliaipole Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: 15 Russian assaults repelled near Rivnopil, Novosilka, Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, Novopil as of 14:00 UTC (UGS).
Vremivka (Velykonovosilkivske) Direction:
Russian Claims: 30th Spetsnaz claim mining road, disabling MaxxPro, destroying it with FPV. RU forces claimed advance towards center of Vilne Pole (Rybar, 18:19 UTC). Advance claimed from Pryvilne towards Vilne Pole, pushing UA forces out (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:39 UTC).
Siversk Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: 7 Russian attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Ivano-Darivka as of 14:00 UTC (UGS).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
Ukrainian Reports: 7 Russian attacks stopped near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, Lobkove, Shcherbaky as of 14:00 UTC (UGS).
Russian Claims: Intense engagements reported near Lobkove, Stepove, Male Shcherbaky. Elements of 108th, 247th Airborne claim control of Lobkove, southern Shcherbaky. Local advances claimed near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka. Geran-2 strike claimed on alleged UA UAV position in Dolinskoye (RU MoD, 17:20 UTC).
Kharkiv Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: Two Russian assaults towards Vovchansk repelled (UGS, 14:00 UTC). UA 113th TD Bde claims repelling attack, destroying 5 MT-LBs, 11 RU personnel. OTU "Kharkiv" claims night FPV strikes by 429th UAV Regt ("Achilles") destroyed 1x Ural truck, hit 5x cargo trucks, 2x artillery pieces, 1x BTR, 1x car (19:02 UTC). Training activities including obstacle courses with psychological support noted (OTU Kharkiv, 19:27 UTC).
Russian Claims: FPV drones (44th Army Corps / Sever Group) claimed destroying UA infantry movements (RVvoenkor, 16:41 UTC; MoD Russia, 19:10 UTC).
Kupiansk Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: Three Russian attempts repelled near Holubivka, Zahryzove as of 14:00 UTC (UGS).
Lyman Direction:
Ukrainian Reports: Five Russian attacks repelled near Kopanky, Yampolivka, towards Nove, Novomykhailivka as of 14:00 UTC (UGS). 63rd Mech Bde claimed downing 5 RU drones (Butusov Plus, 18:13 UTC).
Russian Claims: 500m advance claimed near Yampolivka (TASS/Marochko, 03:38 UTC).
Russian Claims: UA drone allegedly injured civilian in Aleshky (Basurin, 17:20 UTC). Video purports to show Giatsint-B destroying UA artillery piece (MoD Russia, 18:36 UTC). Kornet ATGM strike claimed destroying UA signal relay on sunken vessel near Kinburn Spit (Dnevnik Desantnika, 04:04 UTC).
III. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Current Threats (As of 19:30 UTC):
UAV Threat (Kharkiv): ONGOING ATTACK. Massive Shahed attack ongoing. At least 15 explosions reported in Kharkiv city (O. Syniehubov, 19:26 UTC). Impacts confirmed in Kyivskyi district and city center (Tsaplienko 18:46, 18:50; RBC-Ukraine 18:50 UTC). Damage reported to multi-story residential buildings and civilian infrastructure (RBC-Ukraine, 19:13 UTC). Warehouse fire reported in Kyivskyi district (O. Syniehubov, 19:27 UTC). 12-year-old girl injured and hospitalized (O. Syniehubov, 19:10 UTC). Shahed impact reported on residential building in Zolochiv (Kharkiv Oblast), injuring 14-year-old girl (serious condition) and 26-year-old man (O. Syniehubov, 19:29 UTC). Multiple UAV groups reported heading towards Kharkiv (UA Air Force 19:10, Nikolaevskiy Vanek 18:45, 18:54, 19:06, 19:20, 19:28 UTC).
UAV Threat (Zaporizhzhia): Air raid alert active. Enemy attack UAVs reported moving from Zaporizhzhia towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UA Air Force, 18:24 UTC). Several groups reported heading towards Zaporizhzhia city (UA Air Force, 18:53 UTC). Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 19:05 UTC). Groups reported moving towards Kryvyi Rih district; groups heading towards/through Pokrov/Nikopol (Nikolaevskiy Vanek, 19:28 UTC).
UAV Threat (Dnipropetrovsk): Threat active due to UAVs moving from Zaporizhzhia (UA Air Force, 18:31 UTC). Groups heading towards Kryvyi Rih district and Pokrov/Nikopol area (Nikolaevskiy Vanek, 19:28 UTC).
UAV Threat (Sumy/Chernihiv/Poltava): UAVs reported moving from Sumy towards Chernihiv Oblast (UA Air Force, 19:20 UTC). Groups reported near Okhtyrka (Sumy); one moving from Sumy to Poltava Oblast; one from Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast (Nikolaevskiy Vanek, 19:28 UTC).
UAV Threat (Kharkiv/Izium): Multiple groups reported heading towards/through Izium district (Nikolaevskiy Vanek, 19:20, 19:28 UTC).
Ballistic Missile Threat: Threat declared for northern regions (UA Air Force, 19:05 UTC). Target reported through Sumy Oblast (UA Air Force, 19:07 UTC). Impact reported near Sumy (Nikolaevskiy Vanek 19:07, Tsaplienko 19:09 UTC). Air raid alert ENDED in Kyiv (KMVA, 19:29 UTC). Threat persists in other northern oblasts.
KAB Threat: Russian tactical aviation active. Launches reported towards eastern Kharkiv Oblast (UA Air Force, 18:55 UTC). Launches reported in Zaporizhzhia region (UA Air Force, 18:59 UTC).
Overnight Activity Summary (Mar 25-26):
UA Claim: 5 Shahed drones shot down over Sumy Oblast (RBC-Ukraine, 04:14 UTC).
RU Claim: 9 UA UAVs intercepted over Kursk, Belgorod, Black Sea (TASS, 04:22 UTC).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Activity & Claims:
F-16: Reports suggest increasing role/effectiveness vs Shaheds/cruise missiles (Multiple UA sources). Zelensky mentioned discussing increasing Mirage-2000 numbers with Macron (RBC-Ukraine, 18:56 UTC).
Drone Strikes: Continued claims of successful FPV strikes (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Kherson, Kharkiv). 8th SSO Regt reported strikes (Operativnyi ZSU, 19:12 UTC). SSO "Faust" claims in Kursk Oblast.
Counter-Drone: UA 63rd Brigade claimed downing 5 RU drones (Lyman).
Russian Air/Drone Activity & Claims:
Shahed Launch Sites: Reports suggest 3 new launch sites near Primorsko-Akhtarsk (RBC-Ukraine, 17:41 UTC).
Claimed Strikes: MoD claims artillery destruction (Kherson, 18:36 UTC), engaging manpower (Kharkiv, 19:10 UTC). Basurin claims strike on Bradley (Pokrovsk area implied, 18:35 UTC). MoD claims engaging 143 UA manpower/equipment concentration areas (19:29 UTC).
"Chernika-2" Drones: RU source claims successful use of Moscow-produced "Chernika-2" drones in Sudzha due to EW evasion (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 18:03 UTC).
Ukrainian SSO "Faust" (Claim): Significant equipment destruction claimed in Kursk Oblast via FPVs.
Russian Claims: Pressure claimed on southern Hoholiivka with slight advance, stating forces are "practically in Sumy Oblast" (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:39 UTC). Sudzha Gas Infrastructure Station (GIS) reported still burning. RU forces claimed repelling UA attacks on Belgorod front; specific claims: FPV destroyed UA group in Uhroidy (Sumy); 2x UA SPGs destroyed near Petrushivka (Sumy); UA IFV hit; US M113 APC and IMR engineering vehicle destroyed near Maryino (RVvoenkor, 18:43 UTC). Video allegedly showing destroyed UA HMMWV, Roshel Senator, T-72EA in Kursk Oblast circulated (Colonelcassad, 04:01 UTC). Fighting claimed near Huyevo, Zhuravka-Novenke-Basivka, Volodymyrivka; UA claimed holding Oleshnia, Hornal, part of Hoholiivka (Dva Mayora, 03:41 UTC). Putin attributed "liberation of Sudzha" to RU forces (RU MoD, Mar 25).
Belgorod Oblast:
Russian Claims: Fog limiting ground/air activity, situation remains tense (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:39 UTC). Fighting previously reported near Demydovka, Popovka, Grafovka/Prilesye. Fighting claimed continues in Demydovka (Dva Mayora, 03:41 UTC). Fundraising reported for 20x Mavic 3 drones for Spetsnaz operating in Belgorod area (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 19:19 UTC).
Casualties/Info Ops: RU propagandist Anna Prokofieva reported killed by mine; RU MFA blames Kyiv. Injured RU operator Volkov stabilized, transferred to Moscow (TASS, 18:48 UTC). Woman injured in Politotdelsky by drone (RU claim, Gladkov, 01:58 UTC).
Humanitarian/Info Ops: RU Ombudsman Moskalkova claims over 400 Kursk residents returned from Ukraine (81 from Sumy), 72 remain, 1000 missing (ASTRA, 18:53 UTC). RU MoD circulates POW testimonies. Memorials for Prokofieva circulated.
V. Logistics, Support, and Technology
North Korean Artillery: Confirmed sighting of 7-8 M1989 "Koksan" SPGs and possible M1991 MLRS TLVs on train in N. Occupied Crimea (Sternenko, 18:04 UTC).
French Military Aid: France announced a €2 billion military aid package. Includes: MILAN ATGMs, MICA & Mistral SAMs, missiles for Mirage aircraft, AMX-10RC armored vehicles, ammunition (incl. remotely operated), support for co-production in Ukraine (Macron via multiple sources, 18:45-19:05 UTC). Zelensky mentioned discussing increasing Mirage-2000 numbers (RBC-Ukraine, 18:56 UTC).
US Military Airlift: US Air Force C-17 reported landing at Rzeszow Airport, Poland, from Kuwait (Voenkor Kotenok, 18:50 UTC), potentially indicating resumed direct US military airlift.
US-Ukraine Relations: US may sign agreement on Ukrainian mineral resources next week (TASS, 19:23 UTC).
Russian Anti-Drone/EW: Deployment of new AD systems (incl. laser) ordered (Medvedev via Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:18 UTC). "Chernika-2" drone success claimed due to EW evasion (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 18:03 UTC). Fundraising for Mavic drones ongoing (Dnevnik Desantnika 19:17 UTC, Arkhangel Spetsnaza 19:19 UTC).
Ukrainian Drone Development/Use: Active counter-drone ops (Lyman). Continued offensive FPV use (Kharkiv, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, etc.). Online weapons permits now available via Diia app (STERNENKO, 18:37 UTC); Dep. Head NatPolice concerned about potential crime increase (Nebyton via STERNENKO 18:37 UTC).
Russian Sanctions Evasion: Report alleges Russian national used fake Norwegian insurance company (Ro Marine) to cover 255 vessels, including 76 from Russia's 'shadow fleet' (Danwatch/NRK via ASTRA, 19:27 UTC).
VI. Critical Infrastructure
Energy Infrastructure:
RU Claims: UA allegedly attempted strikes on Crimea gas storage, Bryansk/Kursk power lines (Rybar, 18:19 UTC). RU claims UA continued strikes on RU energy despite Zelensky (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:39 UTC). Sudzha GIS reported still burning (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:39 UTC).
UA Targets: Recent confirmed major Russian strike on Sumy residential area (Mar 24) and ongoing major drone attack on Kharkiv civilian infrastructure.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): RU MFA previously declared it a "Russian nuclear object" (Mar 25). Lavrov reiterated ZNPP status non-negotiable (Colonelcassad, 19:00 UTC).
Ukrainian Railway Disruption: Ukrzaliznytsia website/app remain non-functional (4th day) due to cyberattack (RBC-Ukraine, 16:07 UTC).
VII. Diplomacy, Policy, Information Warfare
Ceasefire/Negotiations:
Zelensky-Macron Meeting (Paris, Mar 26): Discussions held. Macron announced €2bn aid package. Zelensky discussed increasing Mirage-2000 numbers.
French Position: Macron welcomed Trump's initiative for peace, stated Ukraine agreed to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire during Jeddah talks (US-UA), and France awaits the same commitment from Russia (RBC-Ukraine 18:44, 18:46 UTC).
Ukrainian Position: Zelensky stated Moscow is trying to add conditions to the Black Sea 'silence' agreement discussed with the US, which should be unconditional. Ukraine expects US side to ensure this (RBC-Ukraine, 19:03 UTC).
Russian Stance: Lavrov stated Crimea, Donbas, Novorossiya are "closed questions" based on referendums/Constitution (TASS 18:34, Colonelcassad 19:00 UTC). Lavrov claims current UA leaders don't represent large part of population (TASS 18:32 UTC). RU conditions for Black Sea moratorium reportedly include lifting EU sanctions (Marco Rubio via RVvoenkor, 19:10 UTC).
European Troop Deployment ("Coalition of the Willing"): Zelensky stated discussions on format, numbers, capabilities ongoing with general staffs. Key question is which countries are "really ready". Contingent seen primarily for controlling future peace (RBC-Ukraine, 19:18 UTC). Next summit in France Mar 27 (RBC-Ukraine, 19:09 UTC). Previous reports indicated reduced likelihood, focus shifting to alternative aid (Reuters via Tsaplienko, 18:21 UTC).
US-Ukraine Relations / Information Leaks: Pentagon head Hegseth downplayed significance of leaked Signal messages (RBC-Ukraine, 18:02 UTC). Rubio acknowledged US admin error in involving journalist in Yemen operations discussion (TASS, 18:32 UTC).
NATO Stance: Sec Gen Rutte stated no normalization with Russia even after war ends (Tsaplienko, Operativnyi ZSU). Death of 4 US soldiers in Lithuania during exercises confirmed (RBC-Ukraine, 18:31 UTC).
Russian Internal Security/Politics: Assassination attempt on MoD officer in Zheleznodorozhny reported; assailant found dead (Colonelcassad, 18:03 UTC; ASTRA, 18:06 UTC). Putin appoints acting governors for Sverdlovsk (Pasler moving from Orenburg) and Orenburg (Solntsev from DNR govt) Oblasts (TASS 18:52, 18:56 UTC; ASTRA 19:04 UTC); early elections in Sept (TASS, 19:26 UTC). Govt commission to decide on return of Western companies, prioritizing domestic production; law against companies sponsoring UA forces considered (Starshe Eddy, 18:47 UTC). Discussion on controversial artist Kantor potentially returning to Russia (Dva Mayora, 19:18 UTC). Cultural/patriotic events discussed (Gleb Nikitin, 19:03 UTC). Chechen Mufti clarifies Zakat amounts (Kadyrov_95, 19:21 UTC).
Russian Info Ops: Continued narratives blaming UA for targeting journalists/civilians. Circulation of POW testimonies. Highlighting advanced weapons (drones, lasers). Putin emphasizing veterans/Sudzha. Lavrov claims re: UA leadership representation. Memorials for deceased correspondent Prokofieva. Update on injured operator Volkov. Moskalkova claims re: returned/missing Kursk residents. Video promoting rescue of wounded soldier ("SVOIKH NE BROSAEM") (Dva Mayora, 19:25 UTC). Claims of hitting 143 UA concentration areas (MoD Russia, 19:29 UTC).
Ukrainian Internal: Ombudsman Lubinets raises concerns about illegal detentions/beatings by TCC representatives becoming a "trend" (Tsaplienko, 18:41 UTC). Story highlighting UA soldier "Archeologist" (OTU Kharkiv, 19:01 UTC). Ongoing fundraising efforts (STERNENKO 19:20 UTC).
Other Geopolitical: Armenia parliament reportedly passed bill on intention to join EU (Alex Parker 18:13 UTC). EU dissatisfaction with Estonian PM Kallas reported (Operativnyi ZSU, 18:22 UTC). US conducted strikes in Yemen (Operativnyi ZSU 18:52 UTC). US intelligence report highlights China as primary threat, notes progress towards Taiwan capability (DeepState, 19:03 UTC).
VIII. Older Significant Reports (Context)
March 24, 16:00 UTC Report:
Confirmed major Russian missile strike on Sumy city center (Mar 24, ~14:00 UTC) caused high civilian casualties (74 injured).
Russian Claims of repeated Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (CPC pipeline, Crimea gas field, Belgorod gas station) using UAVs and HIMARS.
Confirmed fighting inside Belgorod Oblast (Popovka, Demydovka).
March 26, 04:28 UTC Report:
Overnight (Mar 25-26) Russian Shahed attacks targeted multiple oblasts, with significant damage in Okhtyrka (Sumy) and Kryvyi Rih. 5 drones claimed downed over Sumy.
Russian claims of advances near Yampolivka (Lyman), Rozlyv (Novopavlivsk).
ISW assessments noted previous UA advances in NW Belgorod, RU advances near Kursk/Sumy border, Toretsk, Orikhiv.
