Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 17:05 UTC
I. Overall Operational Tempo
Intensity: High intensity maintained across the front. As of 14:00 UTC, 156 combat clashes were reported since the beginning of the day (Ukrainian General Staff, Mar 26).
Primary Russian Focus: Pokrovsk direction continues to be the main axis of Russian offensive operations.
II. Frontline Activity
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the most active sector with 53 Russian attacks reported near Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Novoukrainka, Vidrodzhennia, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Novoserhiivka, and other settlements as of 14:00 UTC (UGS). Seven clashes were ongoing.
Ukrainian Claim: FPV drones operated by "Flying Skull" unit destroyed 4 Russian personnel attempting to flee. Situation noted as extremely difficult with Russian forces advancing in small infantry groups despite losses (Sternenko, 16:45 UTC).
Russian MoD Claim: Strike drone team neutralized Ukrainian personnel dismounting from an armored vehicle (16:17 UTC).
Toretsk Direction: Significant Russian activity continues with 15 attacks reported near Toretsk, Dachne, Krymske, Dyliivka. Two clashes were ongoing as of 14:00 UTC (UGS).
Novopavlivsk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 17 Russian attacks near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, Vesele. Five clashes were ongoing as of 14:00 UTC (UGS).
Huliaipole Direction: 15 Russian assaults repelled near Rivnopil, Novosilka, Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, Novopil. Five clashes were ongoing as of 14:00 UTC (UGS).
Siversk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian attacks near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Ivano-Darivka. Four clashes were ongoing as of 14:00 UTC (UGS).
Orikhiv Direction: Ukrainian forces stopped 7 Russian attacks near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, Lobkove, Shcherbaky. One clash was ongoing as of 14:00 UTC (UGS).
Russian Claims: Intense meeting engagements reported near Lobkove, Stepove, Male Shcherbaky, with Ukrainian counterattacks noted. Elements of the 108th and 247th Airborne Assault Regiments claim near-complete control of Lobkove and occupation of southern Shcherbaky. Local Russian advances claimed near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka.
Vremivka Direction (Russian Claim): Forces of the "Vostok" group (30th Special Forces Company) claim mining a road section, disabling a Ukrainian MaxxPro MRAP, and subsequently destroying it with an FPV drone.
Kharkiv Direction: Two Russian assaults towards Vovchansk (UGS).
The Ukrainian 113th Territorial Defense Brigade claims repelling an attack, destroying 5 MT-LBs and eliminating 11 Russian personnel.
Russian Claim: FPV drones of the 44th Army Corps ("Sever" group) destroyed detected Ukrainian infantry movements (RVvoenkor, 16:41 UTC).
Kupiansk Direction: Three Russian attempts near Holubivka and Zahryzove. One clash ongoing as of 14:00 UTC (UGS).
Lyman Direction: Five Russian attacks repelled near Kopanky, Yampolivka, towards Nove and Novomykhailivka. One clash ongoing as of 14:00 UTC (UGS).
Kramatorsk Direction: Three Russian attempts repelled near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Bila Hora. One attack ongoing as of 14:00 UTC (UGS).
Ukrainian Claim: FPV drones with thermal imagers from the "Rarog" battalion (24th Mech Bde) are destroying Russian assault groups near Chasiv Yar (Butusov Plus, 16:45 UTC).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): One Russian attack stopped (UGS).
The Ukrainian 40th Coastal Defence Brigade claims drone strikes prevented 4 Russian personnel from crossing the river.
Nikopol District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Subjected to nearly 20 Russian artillery and kamikaze drone attacks throughout the day. Nikopol city, Marhanets, and Pokrovsk communities targeted.
Casualties: Four men injured (aged 33, 52, 63, 79).
Damage: Three private houses, greenhouses, a garage, a gym, an outbuilding, and a passenger car damaged (Lysak, Dnipro OVA, 16:30 UTC).
Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Border Area:
Ukrainian General Staff: Reports 19 combat clashes in the Kursk direction today, with 2 ongoing as of 14:00 UTC. Seven Russian air strikes (9 KABs) and 186 artillery bombardments (including 6 MLRS) reported in the area.
Ukrainian SSO "Faust" (Claim): Reports successful FPV drone strikes in Kursk Oblast, claiming destruction/damage to significant Russian equipment (11 light vehicles, 7 trucks, 1 BM-21 Grad, 1 tank, 1 BBM, 1 quad bike, etc.).
Russian Claims:
Strikes reported on Myropillya (Sumy Oblast), alleging Ukrainian force concentration.
Claimed drone strikes targeting Ukrainian personnel in Sumy Oblast (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). Requires verification.
Claims Ukrainian attempts to advance via Demidovka and Popovka (Belgorod Oblast) failed; Russian forces allegedly clearing central Demidovka.
Claimed FPV drone strike by "Sever" group destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with personnel near Maryino (Sumy Oblast) attempting a night crossing (Dnevnik Desantnika, 16:56 UTC).
Russian forces ("Sever" group) claim destruction of a Canadian-supplied "Roshel Senator" APC with crew near Honcharivka, Kursk Oblast (Colonelcassad, 16:35 UTC).
Putin publicly attributed the "liberation of Sudzha" to Russian forces, thanking soldiers (MoD Russia, 16:52 UTC). Control status remains contested.
"Sever" group claims Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces out of the northern part of Guyevo (Kursk Oblast). Claims ongoing fighting against elements of UA SSO, 132nd Recon Btn, and 95th Air Assault Bde (Dva Mayora, 17:00 UTC).
Russian sources circulate images of makeshift graves in yards in Sudzha, claiming residents buried dead locally during "occupation" due to shelling and mining (Colonelcassad, 17:03 UTC).
Russian sources circulate testimony from alleged captured Ukrainian soldier claiming Ukrainian forces are given psychotropic drugs before battle (Colonelcassad, 16:45 UTC). Potential propaganda.
III. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Current Threats (As of 17:05 UTC):
Tactical Aviation: Russian tactical aviation active on North-Eastern and South-Eastern axes. Threat of air strikes for frontline regions remains (UA Air Force, 15:46 UTC).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Activity & Claims:
F-16 Operations:
Ukrainian Air Force released interview with F-16 pilot detailing combat missions, tactics, and effectiveness. Claims over 80% missile hit rate against Shaheds and cruise missiles (air, sea, ground-launched). Pilot acknowledges risks, including need to close with enemy aircraft and SAMs (RBC-Ukraine, Operativnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko, 16:14-16:30 UTC).
Ukrainian Air Force/media released images showing Ukrainian F-16s armed with AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9L Sidewinder air-to-air missiles (Tsaplienko, RBC-Ukraine, 16:31-16:34 UTC).
Russian claims of downing a UA F-16 are refuted by Ukrainian Air Force.
Drone Strikes:
Claims of significant equipment destruction/damage via FPV drones in Kursk Oblast (SSO "Faust").
UA 3rd Assault Brigade claims destruction of multiple Russian vehicles via drones (Revenge group).
Border Area: Continued use of KABs (9 reported by UGS as of 14:00 UTC).
Russian MoD Claim: Claimed drone strike neutralized Ukrainian personnel dismounting an armored vehicle in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction (16:17 UTC).
Russian Claim (Arkhangel Spetsnaza): Claims drone strikes on Ukrainian personnel in Sumy Oblast. Requires verification.
Russian "Sever" Group (Claim): Claims destruction of Ukrainian pickup truck near Maryino (Sumy Oblast) via FPV drone (16:56 UTC).
Russian "Vostok" Group (Claim): Claims destruction of Ukrainian MaxxPro MRAP in Vremivka direction after mine damage.
Targeting of Medical Assets (Russian Claim): Russian source previously claimed UA drone struck ambulance near Mostky (Luhansk Oblast). Verification needed.
NATO ISR Activity:
US Air Force RC-135V Rivet Joint SIGINT aircraft operated over the Black Sea (Mar 26).
US Navy P-8A Poseidon MPA operating near Kaliningrad Oblast border (Mar 26, 15:30 UTC).
IV. Logistics, Support, and Technology
Reported US Military Airlift: US Air Force C-17 reported landing at Rzeszow Airport, Poland (potential resumption of direct US military airlift).
North Korean Artillery: Reported sighting of 170mm M1989 "Koksan" SPGs in occupied Crimea.
Makeshift Russian Equipment: Continued sightings suggest potential equipment shortages or field modifications.
Russian Anti-Drone Measures:
Medvedev reportedly ordered deployment of new air defense systems, including those based on "new physical principles," for UAV defense.
Video demonstration purportedly shows Russian laser system tracking/engaging a UAV, observed by Medvedev (Alex Parker, 16:27 UTC). Effectiveness unverified.
Ukrainian Drone Development: Active testing and adaptation ongoing (e.g., 95th Air Assault Bde). Calls for increased drone supplies persist (Sternenko, 16:45 UTC).
Czech Ammunition Depot Explosion (Russian Claim): Explosion reported at Policske Strojirny depot (Borziny, Czech Rep.), allegedly supplying Ukraine. Claim attributes it to technical malfunction but hints at sabotage. One person reportedly injured (Dnevnik Desantnika, 16:13 UTC). Requires independent verification. Potential impact on supply lines if true.
Russian Troop Welfare: Video shows Russian 5th Tank Brigade (36th CAA, "Vostok" group) establishing elaborate rest area/PVD, reportedly comparable to home base infrastructure, emphasizing morale and adaptation (Voin DV, 16:30 UTC).
Russian Mine Clearance: Video shows Russian sappers (12th Sapper Bde) destroying TM-62 anti-tank mine, noting enemy often booby-traps mines with grenades/AP mines (WarGonzo, 16:41 UTC).
V. Critical Infrastructure
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): Conflicting reports on diesel fuel reservoir damage (UA MFA reports damage, Russian-installed director denies).
Energy Infrastructure Strikes: Ongoing debate regarding alleged strike moratorium violations by both sides. Ukrainian official (Podolyak) reiterates right to symmetrical response if Russian attacks continue. Russian officials accuse Ukraine of continued attacks (Crimea gas storage, Bryansk/Kursk power lines).
Ukrainian Railway Disruption: Ukrzaliznytsia website/app remain non-functional for 4th consecutive day due to cyberattack. Ticket purchases only at physical counters, causing long queues (RBC-Ukraine, 16:07 UTC). Significant impact on civilian mobility and potentially military logistics.
VI. Negotiations, Diplomacy, Policy, Information Warfare
Ceasefire/Negotiations:
Riyadh Talks: UA Deputy Head of OP Palisa confirmed technical consultations with US side; reiterated no territorial concessions discussed (Tsaplienko, 16:22 UTC). UN Sec-Gen reportedly welcomes agreements (TASS, 16:26 UTC).
Ceasefire Prospects: UA Presidential Advisor Podolyak assessed full ceasefire by April 20 as unrealistic, emphasizing need for US pressure on Russia (RBC-Ukraine, 16:23 UTC). UN Sec-Gen hopes talks lead to long-term peace (TASS, 16:33 UTC).
Mobilization Unaffected: Ukrainian mobilization tempo unaffected by talks.
European Security Guarantees/Troop Deployment: Reports indicate European nations reconsidering sending peacekeepers/troops due to constraints and potential opposition. Focus shifting to alternative security guarantee models (Reuters/UA Sources, 16:51 UTC).
Paris Summit: President Zelensky met with President Macron in Paris (Mar 26). Focus on immediate needs and future security guarantees (UA Minister Sybiha).
Russian Stance/Info Ops:
MFA (Zakharova) demands international condemnation for alleged killing of Russian journalists, accusing Ukraine of "terror" using Western weapons (Basurin, 16:13 UTC). Belarus MFA echoes condolences/criticism of international bodies (TASS, 16:56, 16:58 UTC). UN expresses condolences, states importance of journalist safety, notes lack of mandate to investigate deaths without one (TASS, 16:52-16:54 UTC).
Putin emphasizes role of SVO veterans, thanks troops for "liberation of Sudzha" (MoD Russia, 16:52 UTC).
Alleged quote from former C-in-C Zaluzhny doubting ability to reach Moscow circulated (Operatsiya Z, 16:20 UTC). Likely propaganda.
Claims UA POWs given psychotropic drugs circulated (Colonelcassad, 16:45 UTC). Propaganda.
Narratives about US soldiers' deaths in Lithuania (see Sec VII).
Critique of German energy policy potentially hindering military production (Rybar, 16:37 UTC).
Critique of EU rearmament plans, citing funding disagreements (Rybar, 17:04 UTC).
Ukrainian Internal:
Coordination HQ for POWs met with families (80th Air Assault Bde) (Coord Staff POWs, 16:28 UTC).
Ukrainian Ombudsman Lubinets states human rights violations by TCC (military recruitment centers) have become "massive and systemic" based on citizen complaints (RBC-Ukraine, 17:01 UTC).
US Internal: Trump comments on Signal leak regarding Yemen, suggesting accidental error (RBC-Ukraine, 16:46 UTC). Trump statement on Greenland's necessity for US security (Alex Parker, 16:33 UTC). Reports on US Social Security removing millions of deceased individuals over 120 years old from rolls, linked to previous Trump comments (Kotsnews, 17:03 UTC). Low relevance.
EU: Commission President von der Leyen and Commissioner for Crisis Management urge EU citizens to prepare 72-hour emergency survival kits (Tsaplienko, 16:48 UTC).
VII. Other Developments
US Soldiers Incident (Lithuania):
Four US soldiers, missing during exercises near Pabradė (near Belarus border), reportedly found deceased (Multiple UA/RU sources citing Lithuanian media Delfi, Lrytas, TV3). Official confirmation pending (Operativnyi ZSU, ASTRA, DeepState, Alex Parker, 16:05-16:42 UTC).
Reports suggest their tracked vehicle overturned in a swamp; preliminary cause drowning.
Speculation/Claims: UA sources cite potential RU/BY special services involvement. RU sources anticipate accusations as Baltic narratives. Requires extreme caution; high potential for disinformation.
ZNPP Engineer Sentencing (RU Claim): Previous reports of 19-year sentence for ZNPP engineer on fabricated charges.
Information Security: Signal leak regarding US Yemen operations continues to be discussed (Trump comments, RU analysis).
[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]
Current Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
