Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 16:28 UTC
I. Overall Operational Tempo
Intensity: High intensity maintained across the front. As of 14:00 UTC, 156 combat clashes were reported since the beginning of the day (Ukrainian General Staff).
Primary Russian Focus: Pokrovsk direction continues to be the main axis of Russian offensive operations.
II. Frontline Activity
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the most active sector with 53 Russian attacks reported near Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Novoukrainka, Vidrodzhennia, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Novoserhiivka, and other settlements as of 14:00 UTC. Seven clashes were ongoing.
Russian MoD Claim: Strike drone team neutralized Ukrainian personnel dismounting from an armored vehicle.
Toretsk Direction: Significant Russian activity continues with 15 attacks reported near Toretsk, Dachne, Krymske, Dyliivka. Two clashes were ongoing as of 14:00 UTC.
Novopavlivsk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 17 Russian attacks near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, Vesele. Five clashes were ongoing as of 14:00 UTC.
Huliaipole Direction: 15 Russian assaults repelled near Rivnopil, Novosilka, Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, Novopil. Five clashes were ongoing as of 14:00 UTC.
Siversk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian attacks near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Ivano-Darivka. Four clashes were ongoing as of 14:00 UTC.
Orikhiv Direction: Ukrainian forces stopped 7 Russian attacks near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, Lobkove, Shcherbaky. One clash was ongoing as of 14:00 UTC.
Russian Claims: Intense meeting engagements reported near Lobkove, Stepove, Male Shcherbaky, with Ukrainian counterattacks noted. Elements of the 108th and 247th Airborne Assault Regiments claim near-complete control of Lobkove and occupation of southern Shcherbaky. Local Russian advances claimed near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka.
Vremivka Direction (Russian Claim): Forces of the "Vostok" group (30th Special Forces Company) claim mining a road section, disabling a Ukrainian MaxxPro MRAP, and subsequently destroying it with an FPV drone.
Kharkiv Direction: Two Russian assaults towards Vovchansk. The Ukrainian 113th Territorial Defense Brigade claims repelling an attack, destroying 5 MT-LBs and eliminating 11 Russian personnel.
Kupiansk Direction: Three Russian attempts near Holubivka and Zahryzove. One clash ongoing as of 14:00 UTC.
Lyman Direction: Five Russian attacks repelled near Kopanky, Yampolivka, towards Nove and Novomykhailivka. One clash ongoing as of 14:00 UTC.
Kramatorsk Direction: Three Russian attempts repelled near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Bila Hora. One attack ongoing as of 14:00 UTC.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): One Russian attack stopped. The Ukrainian 40th Coastal Defence Brigade claims drone strikes prevented 4 Russian personnel from crossing the river.
Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Border Area:
Ukrainian General Staff: Reports 19 combat clashes in the Kursk direction today, with 2 ongoing as of 14:00 UTC. Seven Russian air strikes (9 KABs) and 186 artillery bombardments (including 6 MLRS) reported in the area.
Ukrainian SSO "Faust" (Claim): Reports successful FPV drone strikes in Kursk Oblast, claiming destruction/damage to 11 light vehicles, 7 trucks, 1 BM-21 Grad, 1 tank, 1 BBM (armored fighting vehicle), 1 quad bike with personnel, and other targets.
Russian Claims:
Strikes reported on Myropillya (Sumy Oblast), alleging Ukrainian force concentration.
Claimed drone strikes targeting Ukrainian personnel who had established positions in Sumy Oblast (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). Requires verification.
Claims Ukrainian attempts to advance via Demidovka and Popovka (Belgorod Oblast) failed; Russian forces allegedly clearing central Demidovka.
Claimed FPV drone strike by "Sever" group destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with personnel near Maryino (Sumy Oblast) attempting a night crossing.
Putin publicly attributed the "liberation of Sudzha" to Russian forces, redirecting thanks to soldiers. Control status remains contested.
III. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Current Threats (As of 16:28 UTC):
Tactical Aviation: Russian tactical aviation active on North-Eastern and South-Eastern axes. Threat of air strikes for frontline regions (UA Air Force, 15:46 UTC).
Reconnaissance UAVs: Reported Russian reconnaissance UAV activity continues over Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts (as of 14:58 UTC).
Recent Ukrainian Air/Drone Successes (Claims):
Ukrainian Air Force: Reports Ukrainian pilots using Western fighters (F-16) show excellent results against air and ground targets, claiming over 80% missile hit rate. Claims Russian reports of a downed Ukrainian F-16 are false. Notes pilots must get close to the enemy, facing risks from enemy aircraft and SAMs.
Ukrainian SSO "Faust": Claims significant equipment destruction/damage via FPV drones in Kursk Oblast (see Section II).
Ukrainian 40th Coastal Defence Brigade: Claims drone strikes prevented a Russian river crossing attempt in Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian 113th Territorial Defense Brigade: Claims involvement in destroying 5 MT-LBs in Kharkiv direction.
Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade: Showcases drone laboratory testing new models, developing algorithms, and adapting tech for reconnaissance, strike, and counter-UAV roles.
Recent Russian Air/Drone Activity & Claims:
Russian MoD (via RU Sources): Claims continued Ukrainian UAV attacks on Russian energy infrastructure overnight and morning of March 26, including alleged attempts on Glibovske gas storage facility (Crimea), Bryansk power lines (Kлинцovсkиy District outage), and Kursk power lines (Khomutovsky District outage affecting >4000 consumers). (Counter to alleged strike moratorium).
Russian MoD Claim: Claims drone strike neutralised Ukrainian personnel dismounting an armoured vehicle in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction.
Russian Claim (Arkhangel Spetsnaza): Claims drone strikes on Ukrainian personnel in Sumy Oblast. Requires verification.
Russian "Sever" Group (Claim): Claims destruction of Ukrainian pickup truck near Maryino (Sumy Oblast).
Russian "Vostok" Group (Claim): Claims destruction of Ukrainian MaxxPro MRAP in Vremivka direction after initial mine damage.
Targeting of Medical Assets (Russian Claim): Russian source claims a Ukrainian drone struck an ambulance near Mostky (occupied Luhansk Oblast), injuring crew and destroying the vehicle. Requires verification and assessment against LOAC.
NATO ISR Activity:
US Air Force RC-135V Rivet Joint SIGINT aircraft conducted extensive operations over the Black Sea (Mar 26).
US Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft operating near Kaliningrad Oblast border (Mar 26, 15:30 UTC). Third NATO ISR asset reported in the area within 24 hours (RU Source Claim).
IV. Logistics, Support, and Technology
Reported US Military Airlift: US Air Force C-17 heavy transport aircraft reportedly landed at Rzeszow Airport, Poland (major aid hub) after flying from Kuwait. Potential resumption of direct US military airlift flights after using commercial carriers.
North Korean Artillery: Reported sighting of North Korean 170mm M1989 "Koksan" self-propelled guns in occupied Crimea.
Makeshift Russian Equipment: Continued reports/visuals of highly improvised Russian vehicles (e.g., "Vannaped" motorcycle with bathtub sidecar), suggesting potential equipment shortages or field modifications.
Russian Anti-Drone Measures:
Medvedev reportedly ordered deployment of high-efficiency air defense systems, including those based on "new physical principles," specifically for UAV defense.
Video demonstration purportedly shows Russian laser system tracking and potentially engaging a UAV, observed by Medvedev. Effectiveness in combat conditions unverified.
Ukrainian Drone Development: Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade actively testing and adapting drones for various combat roles.
Czech Ammunition Depot Explosion (Russian Claim): Russian sources claim an explosion occurred at a Policske Strojirny ammunition depot in Czech Republic, alleging it supplied Ukraine. Claim attributes it to technical malfunction but hints at sabotage. Requires independent verification. Potential impact on supply lines if true.
Ukrainian Railway Disruption: Ukrzaliznytsia website and app remain non-functional for the 4th consecutive day due to a cyberattack. Ticket purchases only available at physical counters, causing long queues (e.g., Kyiv station). Significant impact on civilian mobility and potentially military logistics.
V. Critical Infrastructure
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP):
Ukrainian MFA: Reports damage to a diesel fuel reservoir at the occupied plant. Spill assessed sufficient for ~25 days of emergency generator power. Calls for plant's return to Ukrainian control reiterated.
Russian Claim: ZNPP Director denies UA MFA report of fuel reservoir damage.
Energy Infrastructure Strikes:
Ukrainian Stance (Podolyak): Ukraine reserves the right to conduct "symmetrical responses" against Russian infrastructure if Russian attacks continue. Ukraine will not unilaterally cease strikes while under attack. Stressed US role as guarantor for monitoring violations of the agreed list (effective March 23-24).
Russian Claims (Novak/MoD): Accuse Ukraine of continuing attacks on Russian energy objects despite alleged agreements. Specific attacks claimed on Crimean gas storage and Bryansk/Kursk power infrastructure (see Section III).
Ukrainian Source (Sternenko): Highlighting alleged Russian admission (via video analysis) of violating the energy infrastructure strike moratorium.
VI. Negotiations, Diplomacy, and Policy
Ceasefire/Negotiations:
Riyadh Talks:
Ukrainian Deputy Head of OP Palisa confirmed technical consultations on a ceasefire continued with the US side in Riyadh; reiterated no territorial concessions were discussed. Ukraine maintains right to respond to violations. Kremlin previously denied formal talks.
UN Secretary-General reportedly welcomes agreements reached in Saudi Arabia (TASS).
Ceasefire Start Date Clarification (Podolyak): Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Podolyak stated the 30-day moratorium on strikes against listed energy infrastructure effectively began March 23-24 when the list was agreed upon, not March 18 as claimed by some Russian sources. Stressed US role as guarantor.
Full Ceasefire Assessment (Podolyak): Assessed a full ceasefire by April 20 as unrealistic, emphasizing the need for US pressure on Russia, not concessions.
Mobilization Unaffected: Ukrainian Operational Command "West" spokesperson stated mobilization tempo is unaffected by ceasefire talks.
European Security Guarantees/Troop Deployment: Multiple sources (Reuters, TASS, RVvoenkor, Operativny ZSU) report European nations are reconsidering sending peacekeeping forces or troops to Ukraine, citing political/logistical constraints and potential US/Russian opposition. Focus shifting to exploring alternative security guarantee models.
Paris Summit: President Zelensky arrived in Paris for meeting with President Macron (Mar 26, ~15:58 UTC). Ukrainian Minister Sybiha stated the summit will focus on Ukraine's immediate needs and future security infrastructure/guarantees.
Russian Stance:
MFA (Zakharova) demands international condemnation for alleged killing of Russian state TV correspondent Anna Prokofieva and other journalists, accusing Ukraine of "terror" and using Western weapons.
EU conditions for sanctions relief reportedly require unconditional Russian withdrawal from Ukraine (RU Source Claim).
State Duma Defense Committee member calls for universal military service.
SVR Director Naryshkin accuses EU of using "Third Reich propaganda methods."
Putin emphasizes role of SVO veterans in mentoring youth and duty fulfillment.
Claimed quote from former C-in-C Zaluzhny regarding inability to reach Moscow due to manpower constraints circulated by Russian sources (likely propaganda).
Founder of "Rusagro" reportedly detained on fraud charges (TASS). Low relevance.
Ukrainian Internal:
Coordination HQ for POWs/Missing Persons held meeting involving multiple ministries and agencies to discuss issues including biological material collection from service members and the exchange process. Confirmed ongoing engagement with families (e.g., 80th Air Assault Brigade).
Information Warfare:
Billboard promoting Ukrainian-Belarusian "joint struggle" installed on Rivne Oblast border with Belarus (UA Source).
Russian MFA (Zakharova) accuses Ukraine of systematic attacks on journalists.
Ongoing narratives surrounding US soldiers' deaths in Lithuania (see Section VII).
VII. Other Developments
US Soldiers Incident (Lithuania):
Four US soldiers, previously reported missing during exercises near Pabradė (near Belarus border), have reportedly been found deceased (Multiple UA/RU sources citing Lithuanian media like Delfi, Lrytas). Official confirmation pending.
Reports suggest their tracked vehicle was found overturned in a swamp; preliminary cause of death cited as drowning (RU/UA sources citing Lithuanian media).
Speculation/Claims: Ukrainian sources (citing BNS) suggest potential involvement of Russian/Belarusian special services. Russian sources anticipate and frame potential accusations of RU/BY involvement as predictable Baltic narratives. Requires extreme caution and independent verification; high potential for disinformation. The US Embassy in Vilnius previously confirmed a search and rescue operation and thanked Lithuanian partners.
ZNPP Engineer Sentencing (RU Claim): Russian sources report sentencing of ZNPP engineer Serhiy Potynh to 19 years on fabricated terrorism charges. Captured June 2023.
Information Security: Reports detail leaked Signal messages allegedly outlining US strike plans against targets in Yemen, highlighting general communication security risks. Russian sources analyze the leak, claiming vulnerabilities in Signal and alleging US intelligence manipulation. Trump commented on the leak, attributing it to potential official oversight.
