Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 13:28 UTC
I. Overall Assessment
Russian Offensive Focus: High-intensity offensive operations by Russian forces persist, primarily concentrated along the Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) axes. Significant resources, including manpower, drones, Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), and artillery, are being employed. Increased Russian activity is also noted in the South Donetsk direction. Russian forces continue attempts to make incremental gains across multiple sectors.
Border Conflict Escalation: Heavy fighting continues along the border, particularly near the Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Oblast, RU) and the Kursk/Sumy border.
Russian sources maintain allegations of significant Ukrainian troop concentrations (>4,000 personnel) near Belgorod and claim multiple repelled border breach attempts involving heavy engineering vehicles (IMRs, M1150 ABV). Specific reports claim destruction of IMRs near fortifications ("dragon's teeth") during attempts towards Popovka (Belgorod Oblast), with Akhmat group involvement claimed.
Russian sources claim incremental advances near Kazachya Loknya, southern Goglëvka (Kursk/Sumy border), and potentially near Huyevo/Psel River (Sumy border). Active fighting reported on outskirts of Basovka (RU claim UA reinforcing). Difficulties near Guevo (Kursk) due to minefields acknowledged by RU sources, but artillery/drone pressure maintained.
Confirmed Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) activity persists in Sumy Oblast.
The border zone within 15km remains assessed as high-risk due to drone activity and remote mining operations, impacting logistics. Fundraising appeals indicate a need for additional reconnaissance drones (Mavic 3) for RU Spetsnaz operating in the Belgorod sector.
Contested Frontline Dynamics: Positional fighting and attritional warfare characterize most of the front.
Russian Claims: Incremental gains claimed near the border (Kazachya Loknya, Goglëvka, Huyevo/Psel River); South Donetsk direction (Razliv, Volne Pole - 400m advance); Shcherbynivka (Horlivka area); Yampolivka (Lyman direction - 500m); near Terny/Spirne (Lyman); NW of Toretsk, SE outskirts of Shcherbynivka, near Oleksandropil (Toretsk); into southern Lobkove and central Stepove (Orikhiv). MoD claims capture of Malye Shcherbaky (Orikhiv), Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (Kursk border), and Sribnoye (Donetsk). RU source Rybar questions MoD claim on capturing Mirnoye (Lyman), noting its small size and lack of independent confirmation, while confirming RU pushes towards Torske/Zarichne.
Ukrainian Defense & Counter-Operations: Ukrainian forces maintain active defense, repelling numerous ground assaults daily (UGS reports 183 clashes Mar 25). Heavy reliance on drone warfare (FPV strikes, reconnaissance, interception), Electronic Warfare (EW), and counter-battery fire. Joint operations involving the 28th, 93rd, and 53rd Mechanized Brigades successfully repelled a Russian assault attempt near the Toretsk industrial zone, inflicting casualties. UA SSO forces claimed capture of 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk. A novel tactic using Yak-52 trainer aircraft to shoot down Russian reconnaissance UAVs (Orlan, ZALA) claimed on the Southern front. Fundraising appeals indicate need for off-road vehicles (Land Rover Defenders) for UA National Guard drone unit "Condor" and 3rd Assault Brigade, suggesting mobility challenges.
Diplomatic Maneuvering & International Context:
The US-Russia 30-day moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes (scope disputed by Ukraine) and Black Sea navigation safety measures remain focal points. US reportedly seeking monitors (e.g., Saudi Arabia) for Black Sea truce. Ukraine (Zhovkva) insists US must enforce agreement if Russia violates.
EU position (Reuters report via RU sources) reiterated: Sanctions removal requires full Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. This potentially complicates ceasefire talks linked to sanctions relief.
NATO reportedly taking control of arms supply coordination to Ukraine via NSATU structure (RU source citing Polish MoD), potentially insulating aid flow from individual member states' political shifts. NATO Sec Gen Rutte warns Russia of "devastating" response if an ally is attacked.
Norway announced significant military aid package for Ukraine (~$8 billion).
Russia plans to ratify a strategic partnership treaty with Iran (Putin submitted to Duma).
Reports (La Repubblica) of potential peacekeeping mission discussions persist but remain unconfirmed and previously opposed by Kyiv.
Information Domain: Conflicting narratives persist regarding energy strikes, border incursions, and casualties.
Russia emphasizes alleged large-scale Ukrainian failures/casualties in Belgorod/Kursk, highlights journalist casualties (Prokofieva death confirmed near Demidovka, attributed to UA mine by RU officials; conflicting UA-source allegation claims she was killed by RU soldiers covering up looting). RU MoD accuses Ukraine of violating energy strike truce (denied by UA General Staff). RU promotes narratives of UA forces misusing civilian infrastructure (church in Kazachya Loknya).
Ukraine highlights Russian strikes coinciding with talks, Russian untrustworthiness, SBU successes (foiled bombing plot in Ternopil, drone strike statistics), war crime investigations (notification for 2022 Katyuzhanka incident), and GUR portal detailing foreign components in Russian weapons.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Recent Russian Strikes (Mar 25/26):
Overnight Drone Attack (Mar 25/26): Large-scale (reportedly 117 assets, mostly Shahed); 56 claimed intercepted by Ukraine. Impacts confirmed on non-energy infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih (significant destruction, no fatalities reported), Okhtyrka (significant damage), Cherkasy Oblast (explosions reported near Cherkasy city overnight), and furniture factory in Koryukivka (Chernihiv Oblast).
Kramatorsk: Drone strike damaged multi-story building (Mar 26).
RU MoD Claims (Mar 26): Past 24h strikes targeted Ukrainian airfields, repair facilities, drone production/control points. Claimed Geran-2 strike on UA drone launch site near Dolynske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Accusation of UA violating energy strike moratorium (denied by UA General Staff).
Ongoing Aerial Threats (as of 13:28 UTC):
Russian tactical aviation active on NE direction; continued threat of air-launched weapons for frontline oblasts.
Reported KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast (12:47 UTC). Previous launches towards Kharkiv Oblast (12:14 UTC). UGS reported 129 KABs used by Russia on Mar 25.
Russian reconnaissance UAV reported active in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (12:56 UTC); engagement ongoing.
Black Sea Posture: 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier (up to 4 missiles) remains deployed in the Black Sea; 3 carriers (up to 26 missiles) in the Mediterranean (Ukrainian Navy/UGS).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Defense & Offense:
Offensive: Continued FPV/drone operations targeting Russian personnel, vehicles (UAZ hit on Zaporizhzhia front), assault groups (Toretsk), and equipment (MT-LB with ammo destroyed near Pokrovsk - confirmed by video). SBU claims high success rates with FPV drones (1700+ tanks, 3000+ AFVs destroyed) and deep strike capability (up to 120km+). 78th Air Assault Regiment released footage of drone strikes.
Defensive: Claims of downing Russian reconnaissance UAVs (Zala, Supercam) by various units. OTU "Kharkiv" claimed 44 RU UAVs downed/damaged (Mar 25). Mobile fire groups (Kherson Bde) downed 5 Shaheds overnight (Mar 25/26). Claimed interception of drones targeting railway infrastructure in Donetsk (Kuibyshevskyi district). Yak-52 aircraft claimed used to shoot down RU recon drones (Southern front, visual confirmation from RU drone footage).
Air Defence Claims (RU MoD): Claims interception of 58 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 JDAM guided bombs, and 1 HIMARS rocket in the past 24 hours (Mar 26).
Russian Drone Capabilities: Reports indicate Russia constructing three new Shahed launch sites near Primorsko-Akhtarsk. Development of "Sifa" FPV drone claimed for anti-UAV/helicopter roles. Russian snipers reportedly targeting heavy UA drones ("Baba Yaga") at night.
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Kharkiv)
Overall: Intense positional fighting, heavy artillery/drone exchanges, claimed cross-border incursions/repulsions continue. Zone within 15km of the border assessed as highly dangerous. Need for recon drones (Mavic 3) highlighted by RU Spetsnaz fundraising for Belgorod sector.
Kursk Oblast (RU) / Sumy Oblast (UA):
RU MoD claims capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Russian sources claim incremental advances near Huyevo and potential Psel River crossing, and pushing into southern Goglëvka.
Fighting reported on outskirts of Basovka; RU sources claim UA reinforcements arriving. Difficulties reported near Guevo due to minefields.
Ongoing Russian DRG activity reported in Sumy Oblast. KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast reported (12:47 UTC). RU MoD claims significant strikes on AFU positions in Sumy region border settlements (Gornal, Gogolevka, Guyevo, Oleshnya, etc.)
RU MoD claims inflicting >230 AFU casualties in Kursk direction in 24h (Mar 26). Cumulative claims since start of border hostilities (>70,190 troops, 402 tanks, etc.) highly likely inflated.
Belgorod Oblast (RU Claims - Krasnoyaruzhsky District Focus):
Alleged Ukrainian Troop Concentration: Russian sources maintain claims of >4,000 Ukrainian personnel concentrated for potential incursions.
Repelled Attacks: Intense fighting continues near Demidovka. Multiple Ukrainian breach attempts claimed repelled near Krasnoyaruzhsky district. Specific attempt towards Popovka (Mar 26) allegedly involved IMRs attempting mine clearing; RU sources (incl. Akhmat) claim destruction of IMR(s) near "dragon's teeth" obstacles. Video released allegedly showing destroyed IMR. Previous attempt allegedly involved IMRs, BMPs, M1150 ABV – all claimed destroyed.
Casualties: Death of Russian Channel One journalist Anna Prokofieva near Demidovka confirmed; operator Dmitry Volkov seriously injured, evacuated to Moscow. RU officials claim Prokofieva killed by deliberately placed UA mine; conflicting UA-source claim alleges RU soldiers killed her to cover up looting.
Kharkiv Sector (UA OTU Report - Mar 26, morning):
Complex situation with high Russian activity (KABs, drones, artillery). 4 Russian ground assaults repelled near Vovchansk, Tykhe, Kamyanka. KAB launches towards Kharkiv Oblast reported (12:14 UTC).
IV. Frontline Activity
Overall: High intensity maintained. Primary Russian efforts remain focused on Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Orikhiv. Russian MoD claims significant daily Ukrainian losses across sectors.
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains area of highest intensity. Russian forces maintain pressure. Ukrainian SSO claimed capture of 9 Russian soldiers (Mar 25/26). Ukrainian FPV drone destroyed a Russian MT-LB carrying ammunition (video confirmed). Russian source claimed Lancet destroyed Leopard tank (Mar 25).
Chasiv Yar Direction: Continued Russian pressure. Russian sources report artillery strike destroying a Ukrainian infantry group during rotation near Chasiv Yar (video released).
South Donetsk Direction: Increased Russian activity claimed. Pressure on Razliv, claim control over forest belt SE of Razliv. Claimed advance from Privolnoye towards Volne Pole, forcing Ukrainian withdrawal and achieving a 400m advance into central Volne Pole. Positional fighting near Velyka Novosilka.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): Continued Russian attempts to advance along the Stepove-Kamenske line. Russian forces claim control over southern Lobkove, pushing north. Heavy fighting near Stepove (most claimed by Russia despite Ukrainian counterattacks). Russian MoD claimed liberation of Malye Shcherbaky. ISW previously confirmed RU advances into southern Lobkove and central Stepove. Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms drone/EW deliveries to Ukrainian brigades. Ukrainian FPV strike on a Russian UAZ vehicle reported.
Toretsk Direction / Horlivka Area: Joint Ukrainian forces (28th, 93rd, 53rd Brigades) successfully repelled a Russian assault attempt on the outskirts of the industrial zone, inflicting losses (video released). ISW previously reported Russian advances NW of Toretsk, SE outskirts of Shcherbynivka, and near Oleksandropil (based on Mar 25 data). Russian source claims Ukrainian drone strike on civilian bus in Horlivka, injuring driver.
Kherson Direction (Left Bank): Primarily characterized by artillery and drone exchanges. Civilian woman injured by Russian drone in Kherson city (Mar 26).
Lyman Direction: Russian sources claim a 500m advance near Yampolivka. ISW previously reported Russian advances near Terny, Spirne. RU source Rybar questions MoD claim on capturing Mirnoye, confirms RU pushes towards Torske/Zarichne.
Kupyansk Direction: Russian sources previously claimed advances west of Oskol River. Ukraine reportedly counterattacked near Nadiya.
V. Other Significant Updates
Diplomacy & International Relations:
US-Russia talks: 30-day energy strike moratorium and Black Sea navigation safety measures discussed. Scope/enforcement disputed. US seeking monitors (Saudi Arabia proposed). EU links sanctions relief to full RU withdrawal.
Ukraine emphasizes Russian untrustworthiness; stresses US role in enforcing agreements.
NATO coordinating arms supplies via NSATU structure. NATO Sec Gen warns Russia against attacking allies.
Norway announces ~$8 billion military aid package for Ukraine.
Russia-Iran strategic partnership treaty submitted for ratification in Russia.
France, Italy, Spain reportedly block EC defense funding plan involving loans, favoring grants.
Personnel, Casualties, POWs:
Ukrainian SSO captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk (Mar 25/26).
UA Coordination HQ met with families of defenders potentially captured by Wagner; intelligence gathered from former Wagner members.
Russian court sentenced 23 alleged Azov members (some in absentia). Video shows prisoners in courtroom.
Russian Channel One journalist Anna Prokofieva killed near Demidovka (Belgorod); operator Dmitry Volkov seriously injured. Conflicting narratives on cause of death.
RU recruitment drive for BARS-22 "Tigr" unit (155th Naval Infantry) highlights financial incentives.
Internal Security & Logistics (Ukraine):
SBU thwarted alleged bombing plot targeting TCC in Ternopil.
GUR launched portal detailing foreign components in Russian weapons.
Zaporizhzhia OVA delivered 330+ drones/EW systems to brigades. Dnipropetrovsk OVA head delivered EW/drones to National Guard.
Fundraising appeals highlight need for off-road vehicles (Land Rover Defenders) for National Guard drone unit "Condor" and 3rd Assault Brigade.
Field medical care observed with portable X-ray equipment near Kharkiv front.
Internal Security & Economy (Russia):
Reports of large-scale cyberattacks targeting Lukoil and Russia's Faster Payments System (SBP) (Mar 26).
Founder of major Russian agricultural holding "Rusagro" (Vadim Moshkovich) detained amid fraud investigation; searches reported in Belgorod office.
MoD announced legislative changes enhancing support for SVO participants.
Pacific Fleet submarine "Ufa" conducted Kalibr missile launch exercise (>1000km range) in Sea of Japan (Mar 25/26).
War Crimes Allegations:
Ukraine issues notice of suspicion to RU soldier for alleged killing of two civilians in Katyuzhanka (Kyiv Oblast) in Feb 2022.
