Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 12:58 UTC
I. Overall Assessment
Russian Offensive Focus: High-intensity offensive operations by Russian forces persist, primarily concentrated along the Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) axes. Significant resources, including manpower, drones, Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), and artillery, are being employed. Increased Russian activity is also noted in the South Donetsk direction.
Border Conflict Escalation: Heavy fighting continues along the border, particularly near the Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Oblast, RU) and the Kursk/Sumy border. Russian sources allege significant Ukrainian troop concentrations (>4,000 personnel) near Belgorod and claim multiple repelled border breach attempts involving heavy engineering vehicles (IMRs, M1150 ABV), with specific reports of IMRs destroyed near fortifications ("dragon's teeth") during attempts towards Popovka. Russian sources claim advances in the border area near Kazachya Loknya, southern Goglëvka, and potentially near Huyevo/Psel River (Sumy border). Confirmed Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) activity persists in Sumy Oblast. The border zone within 15km remains assessed as high-risk due to drone activity and remote mining operations.
Contested Frontline Dynamics: Russian forces claim incremental gains in several areas, including: near the border (Kazachya Loknya, Goglëvka, Huyevo/Psel River), South Donetsk direction (Razliv, Volne Pole - 400m advance claimed), Shcherbynivka (Horlivka area), Yampolivka (Lyman direction - 500m), near Terny/Spirne (Lyman), NW of Toretsk, SE outskirts of Shcherbynivka, near Oleksandropil (Toretsk), into southern Lobkove and central Stepove (Orikhiv). Russian MoD claims capture of Malye Shcherbaky (Orikhiv), Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (Kursk border), and Sribnoye (Donetsk). These claims require verification. Ukrainian forces maintain active defense, repelling ground assaults and conducting counter-operations.
Ukrainian Active Defense & Counter-Operations: Ukrainian forces continue to focus on repelling Russian ground assaults, engaging heavily in drone warfare (both offensive FPV strikes and defensive interceptions), utilizing Electronic Warfare (EW), and conducting counter-battery fire. Ukrainian SSO forces claimed the capture of 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk. Joint operations involving the 28th, 93rd, and 53rd Mechanized Brigades successfully repelled a Russian assault attempt near the Toretsk industrial zone. A novel tactic involving Yak-52 trainer aircraft reportedly being used to shoot down Russian reconnaissance UAVs (Orlan, ZALA) on the Southern front has been claimed.
Diplomatic Maneuvering: US-Russia agreements on a 30-day energy infrastructure strike moratorium (scope and linkage to sanctions disputed by Ukraine) and Black Sea navigation safety measures are confirmed. Discussions reportedly continue regarding potential peacekeeping missions (UN from Global South on contact line, Western forces on UA-EU border - La Repubblica report, unconfirmed, previously opposed by President Zelenskyy). Ukraine maintains distrust of Russian commitments, emphasizing the need for sustained pressure. The US is reportedly seeking monitors (potentially Saudi Arabia) for the Black Sea truce. Russia plans to ratify a strategic partnership treaty with Iran.
Information Domain: Conflicting narratives persist regarding energy strikes and border incursions. Russian sources heavily emphasize alleged large-scale Ukrainian failures and casualties in Belgorod/Kursk operations, along with journalist casualties. Ukraine highlights Russian strikes coinciding with talks and Russia's lack of genuine commitment. SBU thwarted a bombing plot targeting a TCC in Ternopil. GUR launched a portal detailing foreign components in Russian weapons. Former UA Commander Zaluzhnyi reportedly contradicted previous Kyiv stances regarding incidents involving errant Russian assets in Romania and Poland.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Recent Russian Strikes (Mar 25/26):
Overnight Drone Attack: Large-scale (reportedly 117 assets, mostly Shahed); 56 claimed intercepted by Ukraine. Impacts confirmed on non-energy infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, Okhtyrka (significant damage), Cherkasy Oblast. Strike confirmed on a furniture factory in Koryukivka (Chernihiv Oblast).
Kramatorsk: Drone strike damaged a multi-story building (Mar 26).
Horlivka: Claimed Ukrainian drone strike on a civilian bus, injuring the driver (Mar 26).
RU MoD Claims (Mar 26): Past 24h strikes targeted Ukrainian airfields, repair facilities, drone production/control points. Claimed Geran-2 strike on UA drone launch site near Dolynske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).
Ongoing Aerial Threats (as of 12:58 UTC):
Russian tactical aviation active on NE direction; threat of air-launched weapons for frontline oblasts.
Reported KAB launches towards Kharkiv Oblast and Sumy Oblast.
Russian reconnaissance UAV reported active in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, engagement ongoing.
Black Sea Posture: 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier (up to 4 missiles) remains deployed in the Black Sea; 3 carriers (up to 26 missiles) in the Mediterranean (Ukrainian Navy/UGS).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Defense & Offense:
Offensive: Continued FPV/drone operations target Russian personnel, vehicles (UAZ hit on Zaporizhzhia front), assault groups (Toretsk), and equipment (MT-LB with ammo destroyed near Pokrovsk).
Defensive: Claims of downing Russian reconnaissance UAVs (Zala, Supercam) by various units including 28th Mech, 5th Assault Bde. OTU "Kharkiv" claimed 44 RU UAVs downed/damaged (24h). Mobile fire groups (Kherson Bde) downed 5 Shaheds overnight (Mar 25/26). Interception of two drones (one decoy, one with 10kg bomb) targeting railway infrastructure in Donetsk (Kuibyshevskyi district). Yak-52 aircraft claimed used to shoot down RU recon drones (Southern front).
Air Defence Claims (RU MoD): Claims interception of 58 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 JDAM guided bombs, and 1 HIMARS rocket in the past 24 hours.
Russian Drone Capabilities: Reports indicate Russia is constructing three new Shahed launch sites near Primorsko-Akhtarsk, potentially increasing future attack capacity.
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Kharkiv)
Overall: Intense positional fighting, heavy artillery/drone exchanges, and claimed cross-border incursions/repulsions continue. The zone within 15km of the border is assessed as highly dangerous due to constant drone threats and remote mining.
Kursk Oblast (RU) / Sumy Oblast (UA):
RU MoD claims capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Russian sources claim incremental advances near Huyevo and potential Psel River crossing, as well as pushing into southern Goglëvka.
Fighting reported on the outskirts of Basovka, with RU sources claiming Ukrainian reinforcements arriving. Difficulties reported near Guevo due to minefields, but RU forces maintain artillery/drone pressure.
Ongoing Russian DRG activity reported in Sumy Oblast. Missile threat alert active earlier. KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast reported (12:47 UTC).
Belgorod Oblast (RU Claims - Krasnoyaruzhsky District Focus):
Alleged Ukrainian Troop Concentration: Russian sources maintain claims of >4,000 Ukrainian personnel concentrated for potential large-scale incursions.
Repelled Attacks: Intense fighting continues near Demidovka. Multiple Ukrainian breach attempts claimed repelled near Krasnoyaruzhsky district.
Specific attempt towards Popovka (Mar 26, midday) allegedly involved an IMR attempting mine clearing; Russian sources claim destruction of the IMR near "dragon's teeth" obstacles. Akhmat group claims involvement in destroying the IMR. Earlier attempt (Mar 26 morning) allegedly involved 2 IMRs, 2 BMPs; RU claimed destruction of both IMRs and BMPs. Russian sources also claim destruction of an M1150 ABV.
Casualties: Death of Russian Channel One journalist Anna Prokofieva near Demidovka confirmed; operator Dmitry Volkov seriously injured and evacuated to Moscow. Russian sources claim Prokofieva was killed by a deliberately placed mine.
Kharkiv Sector (UA OTU Report - Mar 26, 09:00):
Complex situation with high Russian activity (KABs, drones, artillery). 4 Russian ground assaults repelled near Vovchansk, Tykhe, Kamyanka (reported morning Mar 26). KAB launches towards Kharkiv Oblast reported (12:14 UTC).
IV. Frontline Activity
Overall: High intensity maintained. Primary Russian efforts remain focused on Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Orikhiv. Russian MoD claims significant daily Ukrainian losses across sectors (Belgorod: 55; West: 250; South: 310; Center: 480+; East: 150; Dnipro: 65+).
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains area of highest intensity. Russian forces maintain pressure. Ukrainian SSO claimed capture of 9 Russian soldiers (Mar 25/26). Ukrainian FPV drone destroyed a Russian MT-LB carrying ammunition.
Chasiv Yar Direction: Continued Russian pressure. Russian sources report artillery strike destroying a Ukrainian infantry group during rotation near Chasiv Yar.
South Donetsk Direction: Increased Russian activity claimed. Pressure on Razliv, claim control over forest belt SE of Razliv. Claimed advance from Privolnoye towards Volne Pole, forcing Ukrainian withdrawal and achieving a 400m advance into central Volne Pole. Positional fighting near Velyka Novosilka.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): Continued Russian attempts to advance along the Stepove-Kamenske line. Russian forces claim control over southern Lobkove, pushing north. Heavy fighting near Stepove (most claimed by Russia despite Ukrainian counterattacks). Russian MoD claimed liberation of Malye Shcherbaky. Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms drone/EW deliveries to Ukrainian brigades. Ukrainian FPV strike on a Russian UAZ vehicle reported.
Toretsk Direction / Horlivka Area: Joint Ukrainian forces (28th, 93rd, 53rd Brigades) successfully repelled a Russian assault attempt on the outskirts of the industrial zone, inflicting losses. Russian sources previously claimed losses during an attack towards Shcherbynivka. Russian source claims Ukrainian drone strike on civilian bus in Horlivka, injuring driver.
Kherson Direction (Left Bank): Primarily characterized by artillery and drone exchanges. Civilian woman injured by Russian drone in Kherson city (Mar 26).
Lyman Direction: Russian sources claim a 500m advance near Yampolivka. ISW previously reported Russian advances near Terny, Spirne.
Kupyansk Direction: Russian sources previously claimed advances west of Oskol River. Ukraine reportedly counterattacked near Nadiya.
V. Other Significant Updates
Diplomacy & International Relations:
US-Russia talks resulted in a 30-day moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes (scope disputed) and Black Sea navigation safety measures. US reportedly seeking monitors (e.g., Saudi Arabia) for truce enforcement.
Reports (La Repubblica) persist of potential two-tiered peacekeeping mission discussions (UN/Global South on contact line, Western on UA-EU border), though unconfirmed and previously opposed by Kyiv.
Ukraine (Sibiga, Zhovkva) emphasizes Russian untrustworthiness and need for continued pressure; stresses US role in enforcing agreements.
Hungarian FM Szijjarto claims Russia committed to peace.
Putin submits Russia-Iran strategic partnership treaty for ratification.
France, Italy, Spain reportedly block EC defense funding plan involving loans, favoring grants.
NATO Sec Gen Rutte warns Russia of "devastating" response if an ally is attacked.
Personnel, Casualties, POWs:
Ukrainian SSO captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk (Mar 25/26).
UA Coordination HQ met with families of defenders potentially captured by Wagner; former Wagner members provided intelligence on battle locations, POW treatment, and detention sites.
Russian court sentenced 23 alleged Azov members (12 received 13-23 years, 11 in absentia).
Russian Channel One journalist Anna Prokofieva killed near Demidovka (Belgorod); operator Dmitry Volkov seriously injured, evacuated to Moscow. Other Russian journalists reported killed recently in the conflict zone.
Internal Security & Logistics (Ukraine):
SBU thwarted an alleged bombing plot targeting a Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) in Ternopil, arresting two individuals.
GUR launched a portal detailing foreign components in Russian weaponry.
Zaporizhzhia OVA delivered 330+ drones/EW systems to brigades. Dnipropetrovsk OVA head also delivered EW/drones to National Guard units.
Internal Security & Economy (Russia):
Reports of large-scale cyberattacks targeting Lukoil and Russia's Faster Payments System (SBP) (Mar 26).
Founder of major Russian agricultural holding "Rusagro" detained amid fraud investigation; searches reported in Belgorod office.
MoD announced legislative changes enhancing support for SVO participants (credit relief, housing, medical access, free travel, fee waivers).
Pacific Fleet submarine "Ufa" conducted Kalibr missile launch exercise (>1000km range) in Sea of Japan.# Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 12:58 UTC
I. Overall Assessment
Russian Offensive Focus: High-intensity offensive operations by Russian forces persist, primarily concentrated along the Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) axes, utilizing significant manpower, drones, Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), and artillery. Increased Russian activity is also noted in the South Donetsk direction.
Border Conflict Intensity: Heavy fighting continues along the border, particularly near the Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Oblast, RU) and the Kursk/Sumy border.
Russian sources allege significant Ukrainian troop concentrations (>4,000 personnel) near Belgorod and claim multiple repelled border breach attempts using heavy engineering vehicles (IMRs, M1150 ABV), including specific reports of IMR destruction near fortifications ("dragon's teeth") during pushes towards Popovka.
Russian sources claim advances in the border area near Kazachya Loknya, southern Goglëvka,
