Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 12:28 UTC
I. Overall Assessment
High-Intensity Russian Offensives: Concentrated efforts persist along the Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) axes, utilizing significant manpower, drones, Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), and artillery. Activity also noted in the South Donetsk direction.
Border Conflict Intensity: Heavy fighting continues near the Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Oblast, RU) and along the Kursk/Sumy border. Russian sources allege significant Ukrainian troop concentrations (>4,000 personnel) and claim multiple repelled border breach attempts involving heavy engineering vehicles (IMRs, M1150 ABV). Confirmed Russian DRG activity in Sumy Oblast. Russian sources claim incremental advances near Kazachya Loknya and potentially near Huyevo/Psel River (Sumy border). The border zone within 15km is assessed as high-risk due to drones and remote mining.
Contested Russian Advances: Russian sources claim incremental gains near the border (Kazachya Loknya, Huyevo/Psel River), South Donetsk direction (Razliv, Volne Pole - 400m advance claimed), Shcherbynivka (Horlivka area), Yampolivka (Lyman direction - 500m), near Terny/Spirne (Lyman), NW of Toretsk, SE outskirts of Shcherbynivka, near Oleksandropil (Toretsk), into southern Lobkove and central Stepove (Orikhiv). Russian MoD claims capture of Malye Shcherbaky (Orikhiv), Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (Kursk border), and Sribnoye (Donetsk).
Ukrainian Active Defense and Counter-operations: Ukrainian forces focus on repelling ground assaults, engaging in intensive drone warfare (offensive/defensive), utilizing Electronic Warfare (EW), and conducting counter-battery fire. Confirmed Ukrainian advances previously reported in NW Belgorod Oblast (ISW). Ukrainian SSO claimed capture of 9 RU soldiers near Pokrovsk. Joint operations (28th, 93rd, 53rd Brigades) reportedly repelled a Russian assault attempt near Toretsk industrial zone.
Diplomatic/Political Developments: US-Russia agreements confirmed on a 30-day energy infrastructure strike moratorium (disputed scope/linkage to sanctions by Ukraine) and Black Sea navigation safety. Discussions ongoing regarding peacekeeping missions (UN from Global South on contact line, Western on UA-EU border - La Repubblica report, unconfirmed, previously opposed by Zelenskyy). Ukraine emphasizes distrust of Russian commitments and need for sustained pressure. Concerns raised about US discussing territorial issues without direct Ukrainian participation.
Internal Security/Logistics: SBU thwarted a bombing plot targeting a TCC in Ternopil. GUR launched a portal detailing foreign components (notably Chinese machine tools at Uralvagonzavod) in Russian weaponry. Significant domestic defense contracts reported signed by UA MoD. Zaporizhzhia OVA delivered 330+ drones/EW systems to brigades. A Ukrainian commander was fined for negligence leading to a soldier's death.
Information Domain: Conflicting Russian narratives on energy strikes persist. Russian sources heavily emphasize alleged large Ukrainian troop concentrations/failed border incursions in Belgorod, journalist casualties, and equipment destruction. Reports indicate Russia is constructing three new Shahed launch sites near Primorsko-Akhtarsk. Ukraine highlights Russian strikes coinciding with talks and lack of genuine Russian commitment to peace. Russian SVR accuses EU of "Third Reich propaganda methods". Former UA Commander Zaluzhnyi reportedly stated errant Russian drones in Romania/missiles in Poland were influenced by UA EW/were Ukrainian missiles, respectively (contradicting previous Kyiv stance).
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Recent Russian Strikes (Mar 25/26):
Overnight Drone Attack: Large-scale (117 assets, mostly Shahed); 56 intercepted (UA claim). Impacts on non-energy infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, Okhtyrka (significant damage), Cherkasy Oblast. Strike confirmed on furniture factory in Koryukivka (Chernihiv Oblast).
Kramatorsk: Drone strike damaged multi-story building (Mar 26).
RU MoD Claims (Mar 26): Past 24h strikes hit UA airfields, repair facilities, drone production/control points. Claimed Geran-2 strike on UA drone launch site near Dolynske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).
Ongoing Threats (as of 12:28 UTC):
Missile threat alert active for Sumy Oblast.
UAV threat warning active for Kharkiv Oblast.
Tactical aviation activity reported on NE direction; threat of air-launched weapons for frontline oblasts.
Reported KAB launches towards Kharkiv Oblast.
Black Sea Missile Threat: 1 RU Kalibr carrier (up to 4 missiles) in Black Sea; 3 carriers (up to 26 missiles) in Mediterranean (UA Navy/UGS).
Ukrainian Drone/EW/Air Defense:
Offensive: Continued FPV/drone operations by various units targeting personnel, vehicles (UAZ hit on Zaporizhzhia front), and assault groups (Toretsk).
Defensive: Claims of downing RU recon UAVs (Zala, Supercam) by 28th Mech, 5th Assault Bde. OTU "Kharkiv" claimed 44 RU UAVs downed/damaged (24h). Mobile fire groups (Kherson Bde) downed 5 Shaheds overnight (Mar 25/26). Interception of two drones (one decoy, one with 10kg bomb) targeting railway in Donetsk (Kuibyshevskyi district).
Air Defence Claims (RU MoD): Claims 58 UA UAVs, 2 JDAMs, 1 HIMARS rocket intercepted in 24h.
Russian Drone Capabilities: Reports indicate construction of 3 new Shahed launch sites near Primorsko-Akhtarsk, potentially increasing future attack scale.
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Kharkiv)
Overall: Intense positional fighting, heavy artillery/drone exchanges, claimed cross-border incursions/repulsions. High risk zone within 15km of border. Fog previously reported reducing UAV activity.
Kursk Oblast (RU) / Sumy Oblast (UA):
RU MoD claims capture of Kazachya Loknya (RU). RU sources claim advances near Huyevo and potential Psel River crossing.
RU VDV forces claim consolidation near Oleshnia/Gogolivka, targeting retreating UA groups.
Russian DRG Activity (Sumy): Ongoing incursions, increased RU drone/FPV use. Small recon groups active near Novenke & Zhuravka. Missile alert active.
Extensive PFM-1 mining reported near Sudzha (RU source).
Belgorod Oblast (RU Claims - Krasnoyaruzhsky District Focus):
Repelled Attacks: Intense fighting near Demidovka. Multiple UA breach attempts claimed repelled near Krasnoyaruzhsky district.
Specific attempt towards Popovka (Mar 26, midday) allegedly involved IMR attempting mine clearing; RU claims destruction of IMR near obstacles ("dragon's teeth"). Earlier attempt (Mar 26 morning) allegedly involved 2 IMRs, 2 BMPs; RU claimed destruction of both IMRs (one mined) and BMPs. RU sources claim destruction of M1150 ABV.
Akhmat group claims destroying an IMR.
RU sources claim no UA forces remain in Popovka; UA forces in Demidovka suffering heavy losses.
Casualties: Death of RU Channel One journalist Anna Prokofieva near Demidovka confirmed; operator Dmitry Volkov seriously injured.
Kharkiv Sector (UA OTU Report - Mar 26, 09:00):
Complex situation. 4 RU ground assaults repelled near Vovchansk, Tykhe, Kamyanka (past 24h). High RU activity (KABs, drones, artillery). UAV threat warning active. KAB launches reported towards Kharkiv Oblast (12:14 UTC).
IV. Frontline Activity
Overall: High intensity continues. Main Russian efforts: Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Orikhiv. Russian MoD claims significant daily UA losses across multiple fronts.
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains area of highest intensity. RU forces maintain pressure. UA SSO claimed capture of 9 RU soldiers (Mar 25/26).
South Donetsk Direction: Increased RU activity claimed. Pressure on Razliv, claim control over forest belt SE of Razliv. Claimed advance from Privolnoye towards Volne Pole, forcing UA withdrawal and 400m advance into central Volne Pole. Positional fighting near Velyka Novosilka.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): Continued RU attempts to advance along Stepove-Kamenske line. RU forces claim control over southern Lobkove, pushing north. Heavy fighting near Stepove (most claimed by RU despite UA counterattacks). RU MoD claimed liberation of Malye Shcherbaky. Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms drone/EW deliveries to UA brigades. RU claims Geran-2 strike on UA drone site near Dolynske. UA FPV strike on RU UAZ vehicle reported.
Toretsk Direction / Horlivka Area: Joint UA forces (28, 93, 53 Brigades) reportedly repelled RU assault attempt in industrial zone outskirts, inflicting losses (detected by "Gyurza" drone unit, engaged by infantry, finished with drone drops/MG fire). Russian sources claimed RU attack towards Shcherbynivka from Dzerzhynsk (RU controlled) suffered losses (date unclear, possibly Mar 19 or late Feb).
Kherson Direction (Left Bank): Primarily artillery/drone exchanges. Civilian woman injured by RU drone in Kherson city (Mar 26).
Kupyansk Direction: RU sources previously claimed advances west of Oskol River (Sagunovka, near Krasne Pershe/Kamenka, entering Mala Shapkovka). UA reportedly counterattacked near Nadiya.
V. Other Significant Updates
Personnel/Casualties/POWs:
UA SSO claimed capture of 9 RU soldiers near Pokrovsk (Mar 25/26).
Meeting held by UA Coordination HQ with families of defenders potentially captured by Wagner PMC. Former Wagner members (now POWs or fighting for UA) provided information on battle locations, POW treatment, detention sites in occupied territories.
Russian court sentenced 23 alleged Azov members (12 receiving 13-23 years, 11 in absentia).
RU MoD claims extremely high UA losses (>70,000) in Kursk Oblast (requires independent verification, highly likely inflated). Also claims significant daily UA losses across fronts (Belgorod: 55; West: 250; South: 310; Center: 480+; East: 150; Dnipro: 65+).
RU journalist Prokofieva confirmed killed near Demidovka (Belgorod); operator Volkov injured. Other RU journalists (Fedochak, Panov, Sirkeli) reported killed in SVO zone recently.
UA Prosecutor General reports new suspicion against a top Russian state TV propagandist for incitement, war propaganda, genocide calls.
Internal Ukrainian Issues:
Foiled Plot: SBU thwarted alleged bombing plot targeting a TCC in Ternopil, arresting two individuals.
Head of Dnipropetrovsk OVA met with National Guard, delivered EW/drones, inspected updated medical point.
Report: UA Commander fined 17,000 UAH for negligence leading to soldier's death.
Russian Internal/Military:
Cyberattacks: Reports of large-scale cyberattacks targeting Lukoil and Russia's Faster Payments System (SBP) (Mar 26).
Communications Issues: Investigation into quality issues/alleged fraud involving domestically produced radios ("Uralskiye Zavody") for security forces continues; expert doubts claims of mislabeling Chinese products but confirms use of Asian components due to lack of domestic alternatives.
Economy/Policy: Mishustin reported to Duma on economy, veteran support, migrant profiles. Claims income growth. Head of RDIF proposes Arctic infrastructure/investment fund.
Military: MoD daily briefing claims high UA losses and strikes on infrastructure/production sites. Reports on legislation changes for SVO participants (credit relief, housing support, medical access, free travel, fee waivers).
Pacific Fleet Exercise: Submarine "Ufa" launched Kalibr missiles hitting sea/shore targets (>1000km range) in Sea of Japan exercise.
Diplomatic/Support/Geopolitical:
Peace Talks/Narratives: Discussion reported (La Repubblica) on potential two-tiered peacekeeping missions (UN from Global South on contact line, Western forces on UA-EU border); requires verification. Hungarian FM Szijjarto claims Russia committed to peace after Moscow visit. Ukrainian official (Sibiga) states Russia will engage in deception, not negotiation, without facing real strength (diplomatic, military, sanctions). Times article critiques Black Sea truce as potentially favoring Russia.
European Defense Funding: France, Italy, Spain reportedly reject EC plan for €800bn defense boost via debt, favoring grants (Politico).
NATO: US officials reportedly reassure Europeans privately of Trump's support for NATO (NYT). NATO Sec Gen Rutte warns Putin of "devastating" response if NATO ally attacked.
Russian Information Operations: SVR accuses EU leadership of using "Third Reich propaganda methods" regarding Russia threat narrative, claims EU plans manual media direction for "correct Russian question" framing.
