Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 11:58 UTC
I. Overall Assessment
High-Intensity Russian Offensives Persist: Concentrated efforts continue along the Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) axes. Russian forces employ significant manpower, drones (including Shahed/Geran-2), Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), and artillery. Notable activity persists in the South Donetsk direction and along the Kursk/Belgorod border, particularly near the Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Oblast).
Contradictory Russian Narratives: Conflicting statements from the Kremlin (Peskov claiming moratorium on energy strikes) and the Russian MoD (accusing Ukraine of striking Russian energy infrastructure, linking it to alleged RU-US talks) persist. President Zelenskyy characterized the large-scale Russian drone attack (Mar 25/26) as evidence of Moscow's rejection of peace proposals.
Ukrainian Active Defense: Focus remains on repelling ground assaults, engaging in intensive drone warfare (offensive/defensive), utilizing Electronic Warfare (EW), and conducting counter-battery fire. Efforts to supply frontline units and enhance domestic production are ongoing.
Intense Border Situation: Heavy fighting is reported in Belgorod Oblast (RU) near the Krasnoyaruzhsky district. Russian sources allege a significant Ukrainian troop concentration (>4,000 personnel) and claim multiple repelled border breach attempts involving heavy engineering vehicles (IMRs). Russian sources claim advances near Kazachya Loknya and potentially near Huyevo/Psel River (Sumy border). Confirmed continued Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) activity in Sumy Oblast (UA), with recent incursions reported from the south and RU use of small recon groups near Novenke & Zhuravka.
Reported Russian Advances: Incremental gains claimed by RU sources near the border (Kazachya Loknya, Huyevo/Psel River), South Donetsk direction (near Razliv, Volne Pole - 400m advance claimed), and near Shcherbynivka (Horlivka area). Continued pressure near Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar.
Internal Security: Ukrainian SBU reported thwarting a bombing plot targeting a Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) in Ternopil, arresting two individuals.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Recent Russian Strikes:
Overnight (Mar 25/26): Large-scale drone attack involving 117 assets (mostly Shahed-type); Ukraine reported 56 intercepts. Impacts reported on non-energy infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, Okhtyrka, Cherkasy Oblast. Confirmed strike on a furniture factory in Koryukivka (Chernihiv Oblast).
Kramatorsk (Mar 26): Drone strike damaged a multi-story building.
Russian MoD Claims (Mar 26): Strikes in the past 24h hit Ukrainian airfields, repair facilities, and drone production/control points. Claimed Geran-2 strike on a UA drone launch site near Dolynske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).
Ongoing Threats (as of 11:58 UTC):
Missile threat alert issued for Sumy Oblast.
UAV threat warning issued for Kharkiv Oblast.
Ballistic missile threat warning previously issued and lifted for southern regions (Mar 26, ~11:00-11:17 UTC).
Ukrainian Drone/EW Activity:
Offensive: Continued operations reported by various units (65th Mech, 414th "Birds of Magyar", 3rd SSO Reg - targeting personnel in a cemetery, 42nd Mech - Toretsk direction assault group). Active fundraising for FPV drones continues. Report of civilian injury from RU drone in Kherson city. UA FPV reportedly hit RU UAZ vehicle on Zaporizhzhia front (RU source claims light casualties).
Defensive: Claims of downing RU recon UAVs (Zala, Supercam) by 28th Mech Bde. OTU "Kharkiv" claimed 44 RU UAVs downed/damaged in 24h. Mobile fire groups of Kherson Brigade (AFU South) reported downing 5 Shaheds overnight (Mar 25/26).
Development/Supply: Zaporizhzhia OVA confirmed delivery of 330+ drones, EW systems to 4 brigades.
Reported Future Russian Capabilities: Reports indicate Russia is constructing three new Shahed launch sites near Primorsko-Akhtarsk, potentially increasing the scale of future drone attacks.
Older Reports (Mar 23-24): Included massive drone attack (Mar 24), significant casualties in Sumy attack (updated to 108 injured Mar 26), high combat intensity, and extremely high numbers of RU air/drone/artillery strikes claimed by UA General Staff (Mar 23).
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Kharkiv)
Overall: Intense positional fighting, heavy artillery/drone exchanges, claimed cross-border incursions/repulsions. Fog reported reducing UAV activity (Mar 26). High risk zone reported within 15km of the border due to drones and remote mining.
Kursk Oblast (RU) / Sumy Oblast (UA) Border:
RU MoD claims capture of Kazachya Loknya (Mar 26).
RU sources claim advances near Huyevo and potential Psel River crossing (Mar 26).
Russian DRG Activity (Sumy): Ongoing confirmed incursions, increased RU drone/FPV use. Activity noted from the south. RU using small recon groups in Novenke & Zhuravka (UA State Border Guard Service, Mar 26). Missile alert active for Sumy Oblast (11:42 UTC).
Belgorod Oblast (RU Claims/Reports - Krasnoyaruzhsky District Focus):
Alleged Ukrainian Troop Concentration: RU sources claim >4,000 UA personnel concentrated near Krasnoyaruzhsky district, anticipating a large-scale incursion. Alleged participating UA units listed by RU sources.
Repelled Attacks: Intense fighting near Demidovka. Multiple UA border breach attempts claimed repelled near Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Mar 26).
Specific attempt towards Popovka allegedly involved 2 IMRs and 2 BMPs under artillery cover attempting to breach defenses. RU claims destruction of both IMRs (one near obstacles, one mined) and both BMPs (Mar 26). RU sources (Akhmat group) specifically claim destroying an IMR during this attempt. RU sources also claim destruction of a Ukrainian M1150 ABV ("Hercules") engineering vehicle.
RU sources claim no UA forces remain in Popovka, and that UA forces still in Demidovka are suffering heavy losses, using light vehicles/foot for movement (Mar 26).
Casualties: Death of RU Channel One journalist Anna Prokofieva near Demidovka confirmed; operator Dmitry Volkov seriously injured (Mar 26).
Kharkiv Sector (UA OTU Report - Mar 26, 09:00):
Situation complex. 4 RU ground assaults repelled near Vovchansk, Tykhe, Kamyanka (past 24h). High RU activity (KABs, drones, artillery). UAV threat warning active for Kharkiv Oblast (11:52 UTC).
Older Reports (Mar 23-24): Included claims of RU capturing multiple border settlements, intense fighting near Sudzha with potential encirclement risk, bridge destruction, and claimed UA convoy/command post destruction.
IV. Frontline Activity
Overall: High intensity continues. Main Russian efforts focus on Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Orikhiv. Russian MoD claims significant daily UA losses.
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains area of highest intensity. RU forces maintain pressure. UA SSO claimed capture of 9 RU soldiers via drone (Mar 25/26).
South Donetsk Direction (RU Claims - Mar 26):
Increased activity claimed after Kostyantynivka capture. Pressure on Razliv, control claimed over forest belt SE of Razliv.
Claimed advance from Privolnoye towards Volne Pole, forcing UA withdrawal. Claimed 400m advance into central Volne Pole. Positional fighting near Velyka Novosilka.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): Continued RU attempts to advance. Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms drone/EW deliveries to UA brigades. RU MoD claims Geran-2 strike on UA drone launch site near Dolynske. RU sources report UA FPV strike on RU UAZ vehicle.
Toretsk Direction / Horlivka Area: Ukrainian 42nd Mechanized Brigade reported drone strike eliminating RU assault group (Mar 26). Russian sources claim attack by light motorized units towards Shcherbynivka from Dzerzhynsk (RU controlled), suffering losses (Mar 26).
Kherson Direction (Left Bank): Primarily artillery/drone exchanges. Civilian woman injured by RU drone in Kherson city (Mar 26).
Lyman Direction: UA 60th Mech Brigade drone operators reported active (Mar 26).
Other Older Reports (Mar 23-24): Detailed attacks/claims across Kupyansk, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Novopavlivske, Huliaipole directions.
V. Other Significant Updates
Personnel/Casualties/POWs:
UA SSO claimed capture of 9 RU soldiers near Pokrovsk (Mar 25/26).
Zelenskyy highlights Azov/Mariupol defenders still in RU captivity (Mar 26).
Russian court sentenced 23 alleged Azov members (12 receiving 13-23 years, 11 in absentia) (Mar 26).
RU journalist Prokofieva confirmed killed near Demidovka (Belgorod); operator Volkov seriously injured. RU SK opens terror case.
Foiled Plot: SBU thwarted alleged bombing plot targeting a TCC in Ternopil (Mar 26).
Zelenskyy addressed National Guard, highlighting role, equipment, drones, POW issue.
MoD reports significant domestic defense contracts signed in 2025.
GUR launched portal detailing foreign components in Russian weaponry, highlighting Chinese machine tools used by Uralvagonzavod.
Report: UA Commander fined 17,000 UAH for negligence leading to soldier's death from lack of medical access.
Russian Internal/Military:
Incidents: Fire on RU vessel Crystal Asia near S. Korea; An-12 accident in Novy Urengoy; Lukoil cyberattack reported (Mar 26).
Economy/Policy: Mishustin reports to Duma on economy, veteran support, migrant profiles, anti-fraud platform. Claims income growth, discusses Western brands return.
Military/Security: MoD claims high daily UA losses. Reports on mock weapons procurement for schools. Report on General Shamarin (bribery case) requesting deployment. Crackdown on dissent reported (Yekaterinburg, Krasnodar, Primorye).
Communications: Investigation into quality issues with domestically produced radios ("Uralskiye Zavody") for security forces ongoing, involving allegations of fraud and use of Asian components (Mar 26).
Diplomatic/Support/Geopolitical:
Negotiations Narrative: Contradictory RU statements (Peskov vs. MoD) on energy strikes/talks. Zelenskyy frames RU strikes as rejection of peace. Head of UA MoD discussed negotiation details with US (ceasefire at sea/air, energy, POWs, child return, monitoring). Peskov confirms ongoing RU-US contacts.
European Defense Funding: France, Italy, Spain reportedly reject EC plan for €800bn defense boost via debt, favoring grants.
NATO: US officials reportedly reassure Europeans privately of Trump's support for NATO (NYT).
Moldova: Ongoing situation regarding detention of Gagauzia head.
Russia-Iran: Iran plans football match vs Russia (Oct 5).
Information Domain:
Contradictory RU narratives on energy strikes. Emphasis on alleged UA attacks on RU energy infrastructure.
Zelenskyy frames RU drone attack as rejection of peace efforts.
RU sources detail alleged large UA troop concentration near Belgorod, claim repeated repulsion of complex breach attempts. Emphasize journalist risks/casualties in border areas.
Reports highlight new UA naval drone potential (Katran).
