Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 11:28 UTC
I. Overall Assessment
High-Intensity Russian Offensives: Concentrated along Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) axes, utilizing manpower, drones, Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), and artillery. Significant activity also noted along the Kursk/Belgorod border (particularly Krasnoyaruzhsky district) and in the South Donetsk direction.
Contradictory Narratives on Strikes and Negotiations:
Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov claimed (Mar 26) a continued moratorium on striking Ukrainian energy facilities, citing adherence to agreements.
Russian MoD later accused (Mar 26) Ukraine of striking Russian energy infrastructure (Crimea, Bryansk, Kursk), alleging Kyiv aims to disrupt potential RU-US agreements.
President Zelenskyy stated (Mar 26) the large-scale RU drone attack (117 assets overnight Mar 25/26) demonstrates Russia's rejection of peace proposals (citing a US proposal from Mar 11) and lack of intent for genuine peace.
Ukrainian Active Defense: Focus on countering ground assaults, drone warfare (offensive/defensive), EW, and counter-battery fire. Efforts to supply frontline units and bolster domestic production ongoing.
Border Tensions: Intense fighting reported in Belgorod Oblast (RU) near Krasnoyaruzhsky district, with Russian sources claiming large Ukrainian troop concentrations (>4,000 personnel) and repeated, repelled breach attempts involving heavy engineering vehicles (IMRs). Confirmed continued Russian DRG activity in Sumy Oblast (UA).
Reported Russian Advances: Incremental gains claimed by RU sources near the border (Kazachya Loknya, potentially near Huyevo/Psel River), in the South Donetsk direction (near Razliv, Volne Pole - 400m advance claimed), and continued pressure near Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar.
Internal Security: Ukrainian SBU reportedly thwarted a bombing plot targeting a Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) in Ternopil.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Recent Russian Strikes:
Overnight (Mar 25/26): Large-scale drone attack (117 assets, mostly Shahed - Zelenskyy); Ukraine reported 56 intercepts. Impacts on non-energy infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, Okhtyrka, Cherkasy Oblast.
Kramatorsk (Mar 26): Drone strike damaged a multi-story building; no casualties initially reported (RBC-Ukraine).
Russian MoD Claims (Mar 26): Strikes in the past 24h hit Ukrainian airfields, a military equipment repair facility, and drone production/control points. Claimed Geran-2 strike on UA drone launch site in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Russian MoD Claims vs. Kremlin Statements (Mar 26):
MoD accused Ukraine of striking Russian energy targets: Glevbovskoye gas storage (Crimea, 2 UAVs claimed intercepted); power facilities in Bryansk (Komarichsky dist.) and Kursk Oblasts (Khomutovsky dist., >4000 consumers affected). Framed as Kyiv undermining RU-US talks.
Peskov maintained RU adherence to moratorium on energy strikes.
Persistent Russian Activity: High tempo of air/artillery/drone strikes across frontlines. KAB use confirmed (Sumy, Kharkiv Oblasts - UA OTU Kharkiv report).
Ballistic Missile Threat: Warning issued and later lifted for southern regions including Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Mar 26, ~11:00-11:17 UTC).
Ukrainian Drone/EW Activity:
Offensive: Continued strikes reported (e.g., 65th Mech Bde, 414th "Birds of Magyar", 3rd SSO Reg - cemetery location, 42nd Mech Bde - Toretsk). Active fundraising for FPV drones (Sternenko). Woman injured by RU drone in Kherson city (ASTRA, Mar 26).
Defensive: 28th Mech Bde claimed downing 3 RU recon UAVs (Zala, Supercam) (Sternenko, Mar 26). OTU "Kharkiv" claimed 44 RU UAVs downed/damaged in 24h. Mobile fire groups of Kherson Brigade (AFU South) reported downing 5 Shaheds overnight (Mar 25/26).
Development/Supply: Zaporizhzhia OVA confirmed delivery of 330+ drones, EW systems to 4 brigades. RU sources report potential new multi-role UA naval drone (MBEK/"Katran"?), possibly UK-linked (Poddubny).
Older Reports (Mar 23-24):
Massive drone attack reported on Kyiv and multiple other regions (Mar 24).
Significant casualties reported in Sumy from an attack, including children (Zelenskyy, Mar 24). Casualty count later updated to 108 injured, including 24 children (Sumy official, Mar 26).
High combat intensity reported across fronts (UA General Staff, Mar 23). Pokrovsk direction highlighted (50 RU attack attempts claimed). Extremely high numbers of RU airstrikes (59), KABs (74), drone attacks (1041), and shellings (4792) reported in 24h period (UA General Staff, Mar 23).
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Kharkiv)
Overall: Intense positional fighting, heavy artillery/drone exchanges, claimed cross-border incursions/repulsions. Reduced UAV activity noted by RU sources due to fog (Mar 26).
Kursk Oblast (RU) / Sumy Oblast (UA) Border:
RU MoD claims capture of Kazachya Loknya (near Sudzha) by 155th Naval Infantry & 150th Motor Rifle Reg. (Sever Group) (Mar 26).
RU sources claim advances near Huyevo (Sumy border) and possible Psel River crossing by 177th Naval Infantry Reg. (Dva Mayora, Mar 26).
Russian DRG Activity (Sumy): Confirmed ongoing Russian DRG incursions into Sumy Oblast, with increased RU drone/FPV use. Recent activity noted from the south. RU utilizing small recon groups in Novenke & Zhuravka (UA State Border Guard Service via Operatyvno ZSU, Mar 26).
Mine Hazard: Russian sources warn of extensive mining ("kolokolchiki" - PFM-1) along routes near Sudzha left by retreating Ukrainian forces (Colonelcassad, Mar 26).
Belgorod Oblast (RU Claims/Reports - Krasnoyaruzhsky District Focus):
Alleged Ukrainian Troop Concentration: RU sources (NgP raZVedka, Dva Mayora) claim >4,000 Ukrainian personnel concentrated near Krasnoyaruzhsky district, anticipating a large-scale incursion attempt. Alleged units include elements of 225th Assault Reg, 47th Mech, 33rd Assault Reg, Aidar Btn, GUR/SSO ("RDK"), 414th Drone Bde, 22nd/61st Mech, 17th Heavy Mech Bdes.
Repelled Attacks: Intense fighting near Demidovka; unspecified "results achieved" claimed (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Mar 26). Multiple UA border breach attempts claimed repelled near Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Mar 26).
One attempt towards Popovka allegedly involved 2 IMRs and 2 BMPs under artillery cover attempting to breach "dragon's teeth". RU claims 1 IMR destroyed near obstacles, 1 hit a mine, and both BMPs destroyed (Voenkor Kotenok, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Mar 26). Earlier report mentioned 1 IMR destroyed before fortifications (Alex Parker, Dva Mayora, Kotsnews).
RU sources claim no UA forces remain in Popovka (Voenkor Kotenok, Mar 26).
RU sources claim UA forces still present in Demidovka but suffering heavy losses; RU counterattacks claimed successful. UA forces reportedly using buggies/quads/foot for movement/evac due to vehicle losses (Voenkor Kotenok, Mar 26).
Casualties: Death of RU Channel One journalist Anna Prokofieva near Demidovka confirmed; operator Dmitry Volkov seriously injured. SK RF opened terror case (Mar 26).
Equipment: RU sources claim destruction of Ukrainian M1150 ABV ("Hercules") engineering vehicle (Dva Mayora, Mar 26).
Kharkiv Sector (UA OTU Report - Mar 26, 09:00):
Situation complex. 4 RU ground assaults repelled near Vovchansk, Tykhe, towards Kamyanka (past 24h).
Reports of intense RU assault on Sudzha, targeting supply routes (Yunakivka-Sudzha road under fire control), potential encirclement risk (~10,000 UA troops claimed at risk) (Mar 23). Use of fiber-optic drones reported.
Multiple bridges near Sudzha claimed destroyed by RU forces (Mar 23).
Claimed destruction of UA convoy near Sudzha (Mar 23).
Claimed destruction of UA command post (95th Air Assault Brigade) in Sumy Oblast (Mar 23).
IV. Frontline Activity
Overall: High intensity. Russian focus remains Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Orikhiv. Russian MoD claims significant daily UA losses across sectors (Mar 26).
Pokrovsk Direction: Highest intensity persists. RU forces maintain pressure. UA SSO (144th Center) claimed capture of 9 RU soldiers via drone (Mar 25/26). Older reports indicated extremely high combat intensity (Mar 23).
South Donetsk Direction (RU Claims - Mar 26):
RU sources claim increased activity after Kostyantynivka capture (near Vuhledar). Claim pressure on Razliv, control over forest belt SE of Razliv, arty strikes on UA positions in Razliv and Bogatyr.
Claim RU advance from Privolnoye towards Volne Pole, forcing UA withdrawal. Claimed FPV strike destroyed UA truck moving towards the front from Zaporizhzhia area.
Claimed 400m advance into central Volne Pole (Slovychnyi Kapriz, Mar 26). Positional fighting near Velyka Novosilka.
RU MoD reports use of 2S4 Tyulpan heavy mortars by 36th CAA (Vostok Group) in this direction, targeting fortifications/buildings.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): Continued RU attempts to advance. Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms drone/EW deliveries to UA brigades. Air raid alerts issued/lifted (Mar 26). RU MoD claims Geran-2 strike on UA drone launch site.
Kherson Direction (Left Bank): Primarily artillery/drone exchanges. Woman injured by RU drone in Kherson city (Mar 26).
Lyman Direction: RU forces reportedly attempted to advance near Novolyubovka (Mar 23). UA claimed repelling 11 attacks (Mar 23). UA 60th Mech Brigade drone operators active (targeting RU soldier) (Mar 26).
Other Older Reports (Mar 23-24):
Kupyansk: RU attacks near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, Bohuslavka (Mar 23). RU claim liberation of Dvurechnaya (Mar 23).
Siversk: RU attacks near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Darivka, Verkhnokamyanske repelled (Mar 23).
Kramatorsk: RU attacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar repelled (Mar 23).
Novopavlivske: RU attacks near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv (Mar 23). RU claim advances near Novopavlovskoe/Bogatyrskoe (Mar 23).
Huliaipole: RU attacks near Novopole, Novosilka repelled (Mar 23).
V. Other Significant Updates
Personnel/Casualties/POWs:
UA SSO claimed capture of 9 RU soldiers near Pokrovsk (Mar 25/26).
Zelenskyy mentions Azov/Mariupol defenders still in RU captivity (Mar 26).
Russian court in Rostov-on-Don sentenced 23 alleged Azov members (including logistics personnel); 12 received prison terms (13-23 years), 11 sentenced in absentia (RBC-Ukraine, Mar 26).
RU journalist Prokofieva confirmed killed near Demidovka (Belgorod); operator Volkov seriously injured. Funeral announced for previously killed RU journalist Fedorchak. SK RF opens terror case into Prokofieva's death. RU commentators emphasize risks to war correspondents.
RU sources release interview with alleged Ukrainian POW mobilized from prison (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Mar 26).
Video released of RU soldier "Silver" describing injury near Avdiivka (WarGonzo, Mar 26).
Sumy attack (Mar 24) casualty update: 108 injured, including 24 children (Sumy official via RBC-Ukraine, Mar 26).
Internal Ukrainian Issues:
Foiled Plot: SBU thwarted alleged terrorist plot targeting a TCC in Ternopil; two individuals from Poltava arrested, suspected of acting under handler's direction to plant IEDs (Prosecutor General's Office, Mar 26).
Zelenskyy addresses National Guard on anniversary, highlights role, equipment, drone usage, POW issue.
Ministry of Defence reports contracts worth nearly 130 bln UAH signed with 12 domestic manufacturers in 2025, mentions "Weapon of Victory" long-term contracting program (DeepState, Mar 26).
Active fundraising appeals for drones (Sternenko).
Reports on thermal modernization project for schools/kindergartens in Kryvyi Rih (Vilkul).
Russian Internal/Military:
Accidents/Incidents: Fire reported on Russian refrigerated vessel Crystal Asia near South Korea due to engine room explosion; 6 injured (RBC-Ukraine, Mar 26). An-12 transport plane accident (landing gear failure) at Novy Urengoy airport; 1 hospitalized (Mar 26). Lukoil reportedly suffered hacker attack, critical infrastructure unaffected (Roskomnadzor via TASS, Mar 26).
Economy/Policy: Mishustin reports to Duma on economy, veteran support (incl. Kursk ops), digital migrant profiles (from Jun 30), anti-fraud platform. States Putin in constant contact regarding troop support. Claims real incomes rose 8.4% (record). Discusses conditions for Western brands returning. Sufficient tools claimed to fight inflation.
Military/Security: MoD claims daily high UA losses/equipment destruction. Fundraising appeal for drone batteries for paratroopers. Reports on mock weapons procurement (177M RUB) for schools in 12 regions. Report on General Shamarin (bribery case) requesting deployment to avoid punishment. Crackdown on dissent reported (Yekaterinburg protest against Sudzha pipe exhibition; Krasnodar arrest for online criticism; Primorye official investigated for coffin photo).
POWs: Sentencing of alleged Azov members.
Diplomatic/Support/Geopolitical:
Negotiations Narrative: Contradictory RU statements (Peskov vs. MoD) on energy strikes linked to alleged RU-US talks. Zelenskyy frames RU strikes as rejection of peace efforts. Head of UA MoD spoke on details of negotiations with US (ceasefire at sea/air, energy, POWs, child return, monitoring) (Operatyvno ZSU, Mar 26).
Peskov confirms ongoing RU-US contacts (Mar 26).
Cuban President invited to Moscow for May 9 (TASS, Mar 26).
Moldova: Detention of Gagauzia head Yevgenia Gutsul reported (Rybarn Mar 26); RU MFA spokesperson Zakharova links it to upcoming elections and pressure on pro-RU figures (TASS, Mar 26). Gagauz parliament demands release, threatens protests, calls for international investigation (TASS, Mar 26).
Houthi claims of attacking US warships and targets near Tel Aviv (Colonelcassad, Mar 26).
US reported deploying B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia (Operatyvno ZSU, Mar 26).
Information Domain:
Contradictory RU narratives on energy strikes (Peskov vs. MoD). RU MoD/milbloggers emphasize alleged continued UA attacks on RU energy infrastructure.
Zelenskyy frames large RU drone attack as rejection of peace/ceasefire efforts.
RU MoD/milbloggers detail alleged large UA troop concentration near Belgorod border and claim repeated repulsion of complex breach attempts (IMRs, BMPs).
RU sources emphasize journalist casualties and risks in border areas. RU SK opens terror case for Prokofieva death.
Reports highlight new UA naval drone capabilities (Katran).
Reports/claims regarding Zaluzhnyi's alleged remarks on NATO Article 5 and incidents in Romania/Poland (RVvoenkor, Mar 26).
Continued discussion/warnings about mine contamination near Sudzha.
Reports of RU suppressing dissent (Yekaterinburg, Krasnodar, Primorye).
Reports on RU court sentencing Azov POWs.
Reports on foiled TCC bombing plot in Ternopil (UA).
RU propaganda videos/interviews (POWs, recruitment appeals, commentary on alleged European fascism). Ukrainian recruitment video focusing on pay highlighted by RU sources.
