Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 09:58 UTC
I. Overall Assessment
Russian forces persist with high-intensity offensive operations, primarily focused on the Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) directions, leveraging manpower, extensive drone use, Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), and artillery. Significant activity is also reported along the Kursk/Belgorod border regions and in the South Donetsk direction.
The Kremlin publicly reiterated a claim that a moratorium on striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure is in effect and being followed (Peskov, Mar 26), despite continued large-scale attacks targeting such facilities observed overnight (Mar 25/26) and acknowledged by Ukrainian officials (Zelenskyy). This discrepancy underscores the divergence between Russian official statements and observed actions.
Ukrainian forces maintain an active defense, repelling ground assaults and focusing on drone warfare (offensive/defensive) and counter-battery fire. There are ongoing efforts to bolster frontline units with drones and EW equipment, alongside internal reviews of defence procurement practices in Kyiv. Claims of capturing Russian personnel continue.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
- Overnight Russian Strikes (Mar 25/26 - Unchanged from 09:28 UTC Update):
- Large-scale drone attack (117 assets reported, primarily Shahed) targeted non-energy infrastructure. Ukraine claimed 56 Shaheds intercepted.
- Confirmed impacts in Kryvyi Rih, Okhtyrka, Cherkasy Oblast. Zelenskyy framed attacks as RU rejection of a US ceasefire proposal (Mar 11).
- Russian Stance on Energy Strikes (NEW - Mar 26): Kremlin spokesperson Peskov claimed an order from Putin prohibiting strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities remains active and is being executed by the military. This statement contradicts observed reality and Ukrainian reports of multiple energy facility strikes since mid-March.
- Persistent Russian Air/Artillery/Drone Activity: High tempo maintained across frontlines. Use of KABs ongoing (Sumy, Kharkiv Oblasts).
- Ukrainian Drone/EW Activity:
- Offensive: Continued strikes reported (e.g., 414th "Birds of Magyar" unit). Woman injured by RU drone strike in Kherson city (ASTRA, Mar 26).
- Defensive: Ukrainian 28th Mechanized Brigade claims downing 3 RU reconnaissance UAVs (2 Zala, 1 Supercam) (Sternenko, Mar 26). RU sources continue requests for counter-drone equipment (e.g., for OSA SAM units).
- Procurement/Development: Zaporizhzhia OVA confirmed delivery of 330+ drones, EW systems to 4 brigades. Reports indicate ongoing Russian grassroots efforts supplying 3D-printed drone parts to units (e.g., "Sever" group).
- Russian Naval Activity (Unchanged from 09:28 UTC Update): One RU Kalibr carrier active in Black Sea. RU Pacific Fleet sub 'Ufa' conducted Kalibr test launch (>1000 km) in Sea of Japan.
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
- Overall: Intense fighting, positional clashes, heavy artillery/drone exchanges continue. Fog impacting visibility reported previously.
- Kursk Oblast / Sumy Oblast Border (RU Claims - NEW/Updated):
- Russian MoD officially claims liberation of Kazachya Loknya (near Sudzha) by elements of 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) and 150th Motorised Rifle Regiment (Sever Group of Forces) (RU MoD, Mar 26).
- Russian sources (Dva Mayora) claim units of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment are advancing near Huyevo (Sumy Oblast border) and report information suggesting Russian forces have crossed the Psel River in the area (Mar 26).
- RU sources previously claimed control over Pogrebki, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
- Russian PM Mishustin requested acceleration of a law granting veteran status to military personnel involved in operations in Kursk Oblast (Mar 26).
- Belgorod Oblast (RU Claims/Reports - NEW/Updated):
- Intense fighting continues near Demidovka; RU sources claim unspecified "results achieved" (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Mar 26).
- RU sources claim a Ukrainian attempt to breach the border near Krasnoyaruzhsky district using an engineering vehicle (IMR) was repelled today (Mar 26) around noon, with the vehicle destroyed before reaching fortifications ("dragon's teeth") (Alex Parker, Dva Mayora).
- Reports of impacts on Russian border settlements and alleged lack of state support for evacuees persist (Mobilization RU source).
- Death of RU Channel One journalist Prokofieva near Demidovka confirmed; operator Volkov seriously injured.
IV. Frontline Activity
- Overall: High intensity combat continues. Russian focus remains on Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Orikhiv.
- Pokrovsk Direction: Remains area of highest intensity. RU forces maintain pressure. Previous reports indicated fighting near Shevchenko, Lysivka.
- South Donetsk Direction (RU Claim - NEW): Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) claim increased activity following capture of Konstantinopol (likely refers to Kostyantynivka near Vuhledar/Velyka Novosilka axis, needs verification). Claim pressure on Razliv from North/South, control gained over a forest belt SE of Razliv, and artillery strikes on UA positions in Razliv and Bogatyr (Mar 26).
- Toretsk Direction: Significant RU attack attempts ongoing per previous reports.
- Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): Continued RU attempts to advance. RU sources show alleged joint drone/artillery strikes. Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms drone/EW deliveries to UA brigades.
- Kherson Direction (Left Bank): Primarily artillery/drone exchanges per previous reports. UA drone strike footage targeting RU personnel reported. Woman injured by RU drone in Kherson city (see Air Activity).
V. Other Significant Updates
- Personnel/Casualties/POWs:
- UA source (Shef Hayabusa) shares video purportedly showing captured RU personnel (allegedly scouts) (Mar 26).
- UA claims elimination of several RU officers (Shtirlitz, requires verification).
- RU claims 3 UA soldiers surrendered in the "Zapad" sector (Colonelcassad, Mar 26).
- RU journalist Volkov seriously injured near Demidovka (Belgorod). RU court sentences 23 alleged Azov members.
- Internal Ukrainian Issues: KMVA head raised concerns about potential Kyiv procurement irregularities impacting defence funds.
- Diplomatic/Support:
- Norwegian ministers visit Kyiv.
- Armenian parliament approves bill signalling intent for EU integration.
- Polish Head of National Security Bureau estimates Poland could defend for 1-2 weeks with current ammo stocks before allied aid arrival (Sternenko, RBC-Ukraine).
- EU ports reportedly ban transshipment services for Russian LNG from Mar 26 (Alex Parker/RU source).
- Russian Internal:
- An-12 transport plane accident (landing gear failure) at Novy Urengoy airport; airport temporarily closed.
- Mishustin reports to Duma, focusing on economic claims (growth, income rises) and veteran support (including for Kursk operations).
- Peskov briefing covers energy strike moratorium claim, Moldova, US contacts, journalist death condolences.
- Information Domain:
- RU MoD claims liberation of Kazachya Loknya. RU sources claim advances near Huyevo/Psel River crossing.
- RU claims repelled UA border breach attempt in Belgorod.
- Kremlin (Peskov) explicitly claims energy strike moratorium is active and followed, contrasting with reality.
- Zelenskyy highlights RU drone attacks as rejection of peace offers.
- RU sources promote economic resilience narratives and report on grassroots support (drone parts, training).
- Reports and counter-reports on fighting in Belgorod/Kursk border areas.
- Ongoing commentary on Budapest Memorandum (Grenell).