Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 09:28 UTC

I. Overall Assessment

Russian forces continue high-intensity offensive operations, concentrating efforts on the Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) directions. These operations heavily rely on manpower advantages, extensive drone usage (reconnaissance and strike), Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), and artillery.

Overnight (Mar 25/26), Russia launched a large-scale drone attack (reportedly 117 assets, primarily Shahed-type) targeting non-energy infrastructure across multiple Ukrainian regions. Ukrainian air defence intercepted a significant portion (56 Shaheds claimed by UA Air Force), but confirmed impacts occurred in Kryvyi Rih, Okhtyrka, and Cherkasy Oblast. President Zelenskyy framed these continued strikes as Russia's rejection of a reported US proposal (from March 11) for a ceasefire on strikes.

Ukrainian intelligence (GUR) representative Skibitskyi claims Russia aims to conclude the conflict by 2026, citing alleged internal Russian geopolitical forecasts driven by concerns of falling behind the US and China if the war is prolonged. The same forecasts allegedly include scenarios involving Northern Europe. (This assessment of Russian strategic timelines requires further verification but informs long-term planning).

Fighting persists along the Kursk and Belgorod Oblast borders, characterized by positional clashes and heavy artillery/drone exchanges. Reports indicate continued impact on Russian border settlements and civilian populations, with Russian sources alleging insufficient state support for evacuees.

Ukrainian forces maintain an active defense posture, repelling numerous ground assaults. Significant efforts are focused on drone warfare (both offensive and defensive) and counter-battery fire. Regional administrations, like Zaporizhzhia OVA, confirm substantial ongoing deliveries of drones, EW equipment, and related components to frontline units. However, concerns regarding potential corruption impacting defence procurement have been raised within Kyiv's administration (KMVA).

II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

Overnight Russian Strikes (Mar 25/26):
- Scale & Composition (UA Confirmed/RU Sources): Large-scale attack involving 117 aerial assets, primarily Shahed-type UAVs launched from Russia/Crimea. UA sources report 56 Shaheds intercepted, 48 imitator drones "locationally lost."
- Targets (UA Confirmed): Primarily non-energy infrastructure, contradicting alleged RU moratorium (8 strikes on energy facilities claimed since Mar 18 by UA official; RU sources acknowledge strikes but frame as isolating combat zones).
- Confirmed Impacts (UA Sources / Zelenskyy):
  - Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk): "Massive" drone attack damaging administrative buildings, warehouses, industrial enterprise, fire station, vehicles. No casualties reported.
  - Okhtyrka (Sumy): Significant damage to civilian infrastructure (houses, shops) from Shahed strikes.
  - Cherkasy Oblast: Infrastructure object and warehouse damaged.
  - Explosions/strikes also reported in Zaporizhzhia city, Mykolaiv, other Dnipropetrovsk locations, Poltava Oblast (Kremenchuk).
- Political Framing (Zelenskyy): Attacks demonstrate Russia's rejection of peace initiatives (specifically citing a US proposal from March 11 for "complete silence").
Russian Air/Artillery/Drone Intensity: High tempo maintained across frontlines (Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson Oblasts). Persistent use of KABs reported (e.g., Sumy, Kharkiv Oblasts Mar 26 morning).
Ukrainian Drone/EW Activity:
- Offensive: Continued claims of successful strikes on RU personnel/equipment. Video evidence from 414th "Birds of Magyar" unit demonstrates strikes. RU sources claim Lancet ("Iks") destroyed UA artillery on Zaporizhzhia front.
- Defensive: UA source (Shtirlitz) claims elimination of multiple RU officers (Lt Col to Lt). (Requires verification). UA source (Col. Cassad via fundraiser) highlights effectiveness of UA drones ("Baba Yaga," VOG drops) against RU air defence systems (OSA SAM), prompting RU requests for counter-drone detectors/thermal sights.
- Procurement: Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms delivery of 330+ drones (incl. night vision), EW systems, signal boosters, generators, and components to 4 brigades on the Zaporizhzhia front.
Russian Naval Activity:
- Black Sea: One RU Kalibr carrier active (UA Navy).
- Sea of Japan: RU MoD confirms Pacific Fleet sub 'Ufa' successfully test-fired Kalibr missiles (>1000 km) at naval/coastal targets during exercises. RU sources frame this and Yars ICBM drills as nuclear triad demonstration.

III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)

Overall: Positional fighting, localized clashes, intense artillery/drone exchanges continue. Fog impacting ground visibility. RU focus remains on clearing UA presence.
Belgorod Oblast:
- Fighting ongoing near Demydovka. RU sources report attacks impacting civilian areas and allege lack of state support for evacuees.
- Journalist Incident: Death of RU Channel One journalist Anna Prokofieva near Demidovka confirmed. Operator Dmitry Volkov seriously injured (mine/blast trauma, burns), on ventilator, transferred to Kursk hospital. RU MFA blames Kyiv.
Kursk Oblast / Sumy Oblast Border:
- Fighting reported near Hoholiivka, Huyevo (Sumy), Sudzha area. RU sources claim advances and control over settlements like Pogrebki, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, while conceding UA presence elsewhere.

IV. Frontline Activity

Overall: High intensity combat engagements persist. Russian focus remains on Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Orikhiv directions.
Pokrovsk Direction: Highest Intensity. RU forces continue pressure.
- Recent Clashes (RU Sources - Rybar): Detailed analysis suggests UA counterattacks (early-mid March) towards Uspenivka, Kotlyne, Peschane, Shevchenko were largely unsuccessful/costly. RU forces reportedly regained control over most of Shevchenko after initial UA gains, aided by effective RU drone/artillery use disrupting UA reserves. Fighting ongoing near Lysivka, with RU advancing slowly in ruins while UA brings reserves from Myrnohrad. RU objective stated as gradual encirclement of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad.
- Claimed UA Success: UA source (Shtirlitz) claims elimination of several RU officers from units operating in the broader Eastern theatre. (Requires verification).
Toretsk Direction: Significant RU attack attempts ongoing. RU sources claim minor advances near Toretsk mine.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): Continued RU attempts to advance.
- RU Claims: RU sources (Voіn DV) show video of alleged joint drone/artillery strikes by 64th GMRB & 1198th MRR destroying UA positions in the "Polozhsk direction". RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza) claims Lancet strike destroyed UA artillery.
- UA Support: Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms significant delivery of drones/EW equipment to brigades in this sector.
Kherson Direction (Left Bank): Primarily artillery/drone exchanges. UA drone strike footage (1st Bn, 40th Coast Def Bde) shows targeting RU personnel.

V. Other Significant Updates