Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 08:58 UTC

I. Overall Assessment

Russian forces maintain high-intensity offensive operations, focusing on Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and the Orikhiv direction (Zaporizhzhia). Operations leverage manpower advantages and extensive use of drones, Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), and artillery. Recent strikes targeted non-energy infrastructure, although Ukrainian officials assert that 8 strikes on energy facilities have occurred since March 18, contradicting alleged moratoriums. Russian sources acknowledge continued strikes on energy infrastructure, framing them as aimed at isolating combat zones. Bloomberg reports Ukraine anticipates needing significantly increased gas imports due to damage and depletion.

Along the Kursk and Belgorod Oblast borders, positional fighting, artillery/drone exchanges, and Russian efforts to clear Ukrainian presence persist. Fog may limit ground visibility, but intense combat is reported, notably near Demidovka (Belgorod) and the Sudzha area (Kursk).

Ukrainian forces conduct active defense, repelling numerous ground assaults and inflicting casualties. Counter-actions include drone strikes within Russia, air defense operations, and counter-sabotage efforts. A planned GRU-directed attack in Zaporizhzhia was successfully thwarted by the SBU, involving the arrest of two individuals planning to bomb a military facility.

Internal Russian systems faced disruption, with widespread issues reported in the Faster Payments System (SBP) attributed to technical problems at the National Payment Card System (NSPK). Unverified reports also claim a significant cyberattack disrupted Lukoil operations.

II. Air, Missile, Drone, and Naval Activity

Overnight Russian Strikes (Mar 25/26):
- Scale & Composition: Large-scale attack involving 117 aerial assets (Shahed-type UAVs, imitator drones) from multiple launch sites in Russia and Crimea.
- Targets: Primarily non-energy infrastructure.
- Air Defence Outcome (UA Sources): 56 Shahed-type drones intercepted. 48 imitator drones were "locationally lost" without negative consequences.
- Impacted Areas & Damage:
  - Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk): Described as the "most massive" drone attack on the city. Significant damage to administrative buildings, warehouses, industrial enterprise, fire station, vehicles reported. No casualties reported. Russian sources claim hits on military facilities/ammo depots.
  - Okhtyrka (Sumy): Significant damage to civilian infrastructure from three Shahed strikes.
  - Cherkasy Oblast: Infrastructure object and warehouse damaged by UAV attack/debris. 12 drones reported downed in the region.
  - Explosions/strikes also reported in Zaporizhzhia city, Mykolaiv, other Dnipropetrovsk locations, Poltava Oblast.
Russian Air/Artillery/Drone Intensity:
- High tempo maintained. Mar 25 saw 116 air strikes (184 KABs in UA-controlled territory), >5,500 shellings, 159 MLRS attacks, 2,233 kamikaze drones (UA GenStaff).
- Mar 26 airstrikes confirmed across Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson Oblasts.
Ukrainian UAV Activity (Inside Russia/Occupied Areas):
- RU Claims (Interceptions): Russian MoD claimed 9 UA UAVs intercepted overnight (Belgorod, Kursk, Black Sea). One civilian injury reported in Belgorod.
- Ukrainian Drone Strikes: UA sources show video compilations of successful strikes on RU personnel and equipment. 1st Bn, 40th Coastal Defence Bde (UA) footage shows drone drops on RU personnel attempting water crossing (Kherson).
Russian Tactical Aviation / KABs: Persistent threat. Activity reported NE direction; KAB launches towards Kharkiv Oblast (Mar 26 morning).
Black Sea/Naval:
- One Russian Kalibr carrier active (up to 4 missiles). No RU assets in Sea of Azov (UA Navy).
- Four RU ships in Mediterranean, incl. three Kalibr carriers (up to 26 missiles).
- Russian MoD reports Pacific Fleet submarine 'Ufa' successfully fired Kalibr cruise missiles (>1000 km range) at naval and coastal targets during exercises in the Sea of Japan.

III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)

Overall: Positional fighting, localized clashes, intense artillery/drone exchanges. Fog impacting ground operations. RU narratives focus on clearing UA presence. UA GenStaff reported repelling 29 Russian assaults in Kursk region on Mar 25.
Belgorod Oblast:
- Fighting ongoing near Demydovka. Tense situation in Krasnoyaruzhsky District. Civilian evacuations continue.
- Journalist Killed: Death of Russian state media (Channel One) journalist Anna Prokofieva near Demidovka confirmed by multiple sources (RU & UA). Operator Dmitry Volkov seriously wounded, evacuated to Kursk hospital, on ventilator. Cause disputed (RU claims mine/drone; RU MFA accuses Kyiv of targeting journalists).
- Map claim (Alex Parker Returns) suggests UA forces control territory in Demidovka up to Kolkhoznaya street, alleges lack of RU reserves. Requires verification.
- Reports of alleged Russian military looting in evacuated villages persist.
Kursk Oblast / Sumy Oblast Border:
- Sudzha Area: Fighting reported near Hoholiivka, Huyevo (Sumy), Zhuravka-Novenke-Basivka, Volodymyrivka. RU sources claim VDV operations, infantry attacks west of Melovoye, expanding control south of Sudzha-Yunakivka road. RU sources claim pushing towards state border, "liberation" of Pogrebki (featuring 810th Marine Bde). RU claims capture of UA soldier (129th TerO Bde) near Guyevo. RU sources concede UA presence in Oleshnia, Hornal, part of Hoholiivka.
- Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: RU sources confirm RU control, claim recapture after alleged 7-month UA presence, heavy destruction noted.
- Captured Equipment: Russian sources claim evacuation of a captured M777 howitzer from Kursk Oblast by RU VDV.

IV. Frontline Activity

Overall: High level of combat engagements continues across the front. Russian forces focused on Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Orikhiv axes.
Pokrovsk Direction: Highest Intensity. Remains the main focus of RU offensive pressure. Numerous RU attempts to break through defenses reported daily (69 on Mar 25). Intense fighting reported near Sukha Balka, Kalynove, Oleksandropil, Zelene Pole, Lysivka, Tarasivka, etc. Russian analysis (Rybar) details unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattacks (early-mid March) aimed at capturing Uspenivka, Kotlyne, Peschane, Shevchenko; notes RU forces regained control over most of Shevchenko after UA initially advanced. Fighting ongoing near Lysivka, with RU advancing in ruins while UA brings reserves from Myrnohrad. RU objective stated as gradual encirclement of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad. Older reports mention significant RU losses claimed by UA and RU claim of Lancet destroying Leopard tank.
Toretsk Direction: Significant RU attack attempts continue (26 reported Mar 25). Fighting near Toretsk, Dyliivka, Krymske. Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) claim RU advances (approx. 200m) near Toretsk mine, consolidation in stadium area, and destruction of UA position in Fomikha district, citing captured UA personnel reporting communication issues. Russian source (Narodnaya Militsiya DNR) claims destruction of UA Kozak AFV near Shcherbynivka by 103rd MRR / 238th Arty Bde artillery.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): Continued RU attempts to advance (9 reported Mar 25) near Kamyanske, towards Lobkove, Stepove. Russian MoD previously claimed liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Russian sources previously claimed advances N of Zherebianky, within Lobkove, holding most of Stepove. Video evidence confirms UA 128th Mountain Assault Bde drone strikes on RU assault troops.
Kupiansk Direction: Russian assaults repelled near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka (Mar 25). Older RU claims include regaining control of Dvurechna and advances near Kamenka/Mala Shapkovka.
Lyman Direction: Numerous RU attacks reported daily (24 on Mar 25) near Yampolivka, Nadiya, Kopanky, etc. Unverified claim from Mar 23 reported UA recapture of Nadiya (Luhansk); requires confirmation.
Kherson Direction (Left Bank): Limited ground clashes reported (1 on Mar 25). UA forces maintain presence. UA drone strike footage previously showed targeting of RU personnel attempting water crossing.

V. Other Significant Updates