Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 08:28 UTC

I. Overall Assessment

Russian forces sustain high-intensity offensive operations across multiple axes, concentrating efforts towards Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and in the Orikhiv direction (Zaporizhzhia front). Extensive use of drones, Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), and artillery continues, leveraging manpower advantages. Recent overnight strikes targeted non-energy infrastructure across Ukraine. Along the border with Russia's Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, positional fighting, intense exchanges, and reported Russian efforts to clear Ukrainian presence persist. Fog may limit ground activity, but intense combat is confirmed, particularly near Demidovka (Belgorod) and in the Sudzha area (Kursk). The information space remains heavily contested.

Ukrainian forces maintain active defense, repelling numerous ground assaults and inflicting casualties. Counter-actions, including drone strikes within Russian territory and against Russian personnel, air defense operations, and counter-sabotage efforts, are ongoing. Sustaining defensive efforts requires significant resources and continued external support. Internal security operations successfully thwarted a planned GRU-directed attack in Zaporizhzhia.

II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

• Overnight Russian Strikes (Mar 25/26):
  • Scale & Composition: Large-scale attack involving 117 aerial assets (Shahed-type UAVs, imitator drones) launched from Millerovo, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia), and Chauda (Crimea).
  • Targets: Primarily non-energy infrastructure.
  • Air Defence Outcome (UA Air Force Official / UA GenStaff / Tsaplienko):
    • 56 Shahed-type drones confirmed intercepted across southern, northern, eastern, and central Ukraine.
    • 48 imitator drones were "locationally lost" without reported negative consequences.
  • Regional Interceptions (Downed Shaheds - Combined Sources):
    • Southern Defence Forces Area: 24 (Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson oblasts).
    • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 12 UAVs total.
    • Mykolaiv Oblast: 7 Shaheds.
    • Sumy Oblast: 5 Shaheds.
    • Cherkasy Oblast: 12 drones downed (RBC-Ukr).
    • Other areas within overall 56 count.
  • Impacted Areas & Damage:
    • Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Confirmed as the "most massive" drone attack on the city since Feb 2022 (Vilkul, Voenkor Kotenok, ASTRA, Hayabusa). Damage reported to administrative buildings, warehouses, industrial enterprise, fire station, vehicles. Multiple fires occurred, now extinguished. No casualties reported (Vilkul, Tsaplienko). Russian sources (Voenkor Kotenok) claim hits on military facilities/ammo depots. Visuals confirm significant fires.
    • Okhtyrka (Sumy Oblast): Three Shahed strikes caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure.
    • Cherkasy Oblast: Infrastructure object damaged by UAV attack; fire extinguished. Warehouse damaged by debris (OperativnoZSU, RBC-Ukr).
    • Other explosions/strikes reported in Zaporizhzhia city, Mykolaiv, other Dnipropetrovsk locations, Poltava Oblast.
  • Claimed Moratorium / Reality (UA Advisor Lytvyn, OperativnoZSU, RVvoenkor, Tsaplienko): Despite previous Russian claims/alleged US-RU agreement (post Mar 18) for a moratorium on energy strikes, Ukrainian presidential advisor Lytvyn stated Russia conducted 8 strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities since March 18. This contradicts the supposed moratorium. RU sources (RVvoenkor, citing Times, Ark Spetsnaza) also discuss implications, noting any deal might exclude ports and expressing skepticism about RU adherence.
• Russian Drone Launch Capabilities (Claim - RBC-Ukraine, OperativnoZSU): Reports indicate Russia opened 3 new drone launch sites near Primorsko-Akhtarsk, potentially increasing Shahed launch capacity per wave. Requires verification.
• Russian Air/Artillery/Drone Intensity (UA GenStaff, Mar 25 & 26 data):
  • Mar 25: 116 air strikes (184 KABs in UA-controlled territory, +23 KABs in Kursk), >5,500 shellings, 159 MLRS attacks, 2,233 kamikaze drones.
  • Mar 26 (Morning Report Data): Airstrikes confirmed at Petrushivka, Uhroyidy, Krasnopillya, Prokhody, Turya (Sumy); Zolochiv, Prudyanka (Kharkiv); Serhiyivka, Sukhyy Yar, Pokrovsk, Chunyshyne, Novopil, Zorya, Sukha Balka, Piddubne (Donetsk); Ternove, Dachne (Dnipropetrovsk); Novodarivka, Orikhiv, Hulyaypole, Zaliznychne, Mala Tokmachka (Zaporizhzhia); Vesele, Oleksandrivka, Dudchany (Kherson).
• Southern Front Specifics (UA South Def Forces, Mar 25 data):
  • 230 Russian shelling incidents (~1000 munitions).

  • 400 kamikaze drone strikes, ~150 drone drops (targeting Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk).

  • 36 KABs and 114 unguided rockets (NARs) used against civilian areas/infrastructure.
• Ukrainian UAV Activity (Inside Russia/Occupied Areas):
  • RU Claims (Interceptions): Russian MoD claimed interception/destruction of 9 Ukrainian UAVs overnight (5 Belgorod, 2 Kursk, 2 Black Sea) (Voenkor Kotenok, Colonelcassad). Verification required. One civilian injury reported in Belgorod Oblast from attacks (Colonelcassad).
  • Ukrainian Drone Strikes (Confirmed/Video): Ukrainian sources (Sternenko) show video compilations of drone strikes targeting Russian personnel and equipment (vehicles, motorcycles, buildings). The 1st Battalion, 40th Coastal Defence Brigade (UA) released footage of drone drops targeting Russian personnel attempting a water crossing in Kherson Oblast (Nikolaevsky Vanek, 40 OBrBO).
• Russian Tactical Aviation / KABs:
  • Threat remains persistent along frontlines and border areas.
  • Activity reported in NE direction; KAB launches towards Kharkiv Oblast (UA Air Force Alert, 06:39 UTC).
  • Extensive use reported across multiple Oblasts (UA GenStaff).
• Black Sea Missile Threat:
  • Current Posture: One Russian Kalibr missile carrier active (up to 4 missiles). No Russian naval assets detected in Sea of Azov (UA Navy, UA GenStaff).
  • Mediterranean Posture: Four Russian ships remain, including three Kalibr carriers (up to 26 missiles) (UA General Staff).

III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)

• Overall Assessment: Positional fighting, localized engagements, and intense artillery/drone exchanges continue. Fog reported limiting some ground activity. Russian sources maintain narratives of clearing Ukrainian presence and pushing into Sumy Oblast, including claims of reaching the state border. UA GenStaff reports repelling 29 Russian assaults in the Kursk region on Mar 25.
• Belgorod Oblast:
  • Fighting previously reported near Demydovka. Situation in Krasnoyaruzhsky District remains tense. Civilian evacuation efforts ongoing.
  • Death of Russian Journalist Confirmed: Multiple sources (RU & UA) confirm death of Russian state media (Channel One) journalist Anna Prokofieva near Demidovka. Cause disputed: RU sources claim mine explosion or drone attack; RU MFA claims Kyiv is "hunting" journalists despite press markings. Operator Dmitry Volkov reported seriously wounded.
  • Map claim (Alex Parker Returns) suggests Ukrainian forces control territory in Demidovka up to Kolkhoznaya street, alleging lack of RU reserves. Requires verification.
  • Reports of alleged Russian military misconduct (looting) in evacuated villages like Repyakhovka (Butusov, citing RU sources).
• Kursk Oblast / Sumy Oblast Border:
  • Sudzha Area: Russian sources claim VDV operations towards Sumy border. Fighting reported in Hoholiivka. RU sources concede UA forces hold positions in Oleshnia, Hornal, part of Hoholiivka. Russian sources claim infantry attacks west of Melovoye, expanding control south of the Sudzha-Yunakivka road. Russian sources (WarGonzo) feature 810th Marine Brigade operating in the area, claiming to push towards the state border and chronicling the "liberation" of Pogrebki. Captured M777 howitzer reportedly evacuated by RU VDV from Kursk Oblast (Colonelcassad claim).
  • Fighting reported near Huyevo (Sumy).
  • Russian sources report fighting near Zhuravka-Novenke-Basivka and Volodymyrivka. RU sources claim positional battles near Zhuravka continue (Slivocnhy Kapriz). Tula's 51st Airborne Regiment reportedly fighting near Basovka (Slivocnhy