Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 07:58 UTC

I. Overall Assessment

Russian forces sustain high-intensity offensive operations across multiple axes, concentrating efforts towards Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and in the Orikhiv direction (Zaporizhzhia front). Extensive use of drones, Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), and artillery continues, leveraging manpower advantages. Recent overnight strikes targeted non-energy infrastructure across Ukraine. Along the border with Russia's Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, positional fighting, intense exchanges, and reported Russian efforts to clear Ukrainian presence persist, though fog may limit ground activity. The information space remains heavily contested.

Ukrainian forces maintain active defense, repelling numerous ground assaults and inflicting casualties. Counter-actions, particularly drone strikes and air defense operations, are ongoing. Sustaining defensive efforts requires significant resources and continued external support.

II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

• Overnight Russian Strikes (Mar 25/26):
  • Scale & Composition: Large-scale attack involving 117 aerial assets (Shahed-type UAVs, imitator drones) launched from Millerovo, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia), and Chauda (Crimea).
  • Targets: Primarily non-energy infrastructure.
  • Air Defence Outcome (UA Air Force Official / UA GenStaff):
    • 56 Shahed-type drones confirmed intercepted across southern, northern, eastern, and central Ukraine.
    • 48 imitator drones were "locationally lost" without reported negative consequences.
  • Regional Interceptions (Downed Shaheds - Combined Sources):
    • Southern Defence Forces Area: 24 (Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson oblasts).
    • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 12 UAVs total.
    • Mykolaiv Oblast: 7 Shaheds.
    • Sumy Oblast: 5 Shaheds.
    • Other areas within overall 56 count.
  • Impacted Areas & Damage:
    • Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Confirmed as the "most massive" drone attack on the city since Feb 2022 (Vilkul, Voenkor Kotenok, ASTRA, Hayabusa). Damage reported to administrative buildings, warehouses, industrial enterprise, fire station, vehicles. Multiple fires occurred, now extinguished. No casualties reported (Vilkul, Tsaplienko). Russian sources (Voenkor Kotenok) claim hits on military facilities/ammo depots.
    • Okhtyrka (Sumy Oblast): Three Shahed strikes caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure.
    • Cherkasy Oblast: Infrastructure object damaged by UAV attack; fire extinguished. Warehouse damaged by debris (OperativnoZSU).
    • Other explosions/strikes reported in Zaporizhzhia city, Mykolaiv, other Dnipropetrovsk locations, Poltava Oblast.
  • Claimed Moratorium / Reality (UA Advisor Lytvyn, OperativnoZSU, RVvoenkor): Despite previous Russian claims/alleged US-RU agreement (post Mar 18) for a moratorium on energy strikes, Ukrainian presidential advisor Lytvyn stated Russia conducted 8 strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities since March 18. This contradicts the supposed moratorium. RU sources (RVvoenkor, citing Times) also discuss the implications of any Black Sea/energy ceasefire, noting it might not include ports. Ukrainian sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza) express skepticism about Russia adhering to any such agreement, citing past instances of attacks following similar discussions.
• Russian Drone Launch Capabilities (Claim - RBC-Ukraine, OperativnoZSU): Reports indicate Russia opened 3 new drone launch sites near Primorsko-Akhtarsk, potentially increasing Shahed launch capacity per wave. Requires verification.
• Russian Air/Artillery/Drone Intensity (UA GenStaff, Mar 25 data):
  • 116 air strikes (184 KABs deployed in UA-controlled territory, +23 KABs in Kursk Oblast).
  • Over 5,500 shelling incidents.
  • 159 MLRS attacks.
  • 2,233 kamikaze drones employed.
• Southern Front Specifics (UA South Def Forces, Mar 25 data):
  • 230 Russian shelling incidents (~1000 munitions).

  • 400 kamikaze drone strikes, ~150 drone drops (targeting Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk).

  • 36 KABs and 114 unguided rockets (NARs) used against civilian areas/infrastructure.
• Ukrainian UAV Activity (Inside Russia/Occupied Areas):
  • RU Claims (Interceptions): Russian MoD claimed interception/destruction of 9 Ukrainian UAVs overnight (5 Belgorod, 2 Kursk, 2 Black Sea) (Voenkor Kotenok, Colonelcassad). Verification required. One civilian injury reported in Belgorod Oblast from attacks (Colonelcassad).
  • Ukrainian Drone Strikes (Confirmed/Video): Ukrainian sources (Sternenko) show video compilations of drone strikes targeting Russian personnel and equipment (vehicles, motorcycles, buildings), framed as "negotiations". The 1st Battalion, 40th Coastal Defence Brigade (UA) released footage of drone drops targeting Russian personnel attempting a water crossing in Kherson Oblast (Nikolaevsky Vanek, 40 OBrBO).
• Russian Tactical Aviation / KABs:
  • Threat remains persistent along frontlines and border areas.
  • Activity reported in NE direction; KAB launches towards Kharkiv Oblast (UA Air Force Alert, 06:39 UTC).
  • Extensive use reported previously across multiple Oblasts (UA GenStaff).
• Black Sea Missile Threat:
  • Current Posture: One Russian Kalibr missile carrier active (up to 4 missiles). No Russian naval assets detected in Sea of Azov (UA Navy, UA GenStaff).
  • Mediterranean Posture: Four Russian ships remain, including three Kalibr carriers (up to 26 missiles) (UA General Staff).

III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)

• Overall Assessment: Positional fighting, localized engagements, and intense artillery/drone exchanges continue. Fog reported limiting some ground activity. Russian sources maintain narratives of clearing Ukrainian presence and pushing into Sumy Oblast, including claims of reaching the state border.
• Belgorod Oblast:
  • Fighting previously reported near Demydovka. Situation in Krasnoyaruzhsky District remains tense. Civilian evacuation efforts ongoing.
  • Alleged Death of Russian Journalist: Multiple sources (Sternenko, Butusov Plus, RVvoenkor, Voenkor Kotenok) report the alleged death of Russian state media (Channel One) journalist/propagandist Anna Prokofieva near Demidovka. Russian MFA spokesperson Zakharova claims Kyiv is "hunting" Russian war correspondents, alleging they are targeted despite press markings (TASS, RVvoenkor).
  • Reports of alleged Russian military misconduct (looting) in evacuated villages like Repyakhovka (Butusov, citing RU sources).
• Kursk Oblast / Sumy Oblast Border:
  • Sudzha Area: Russian sources claim VDV operations towards Sumy border. Fighting reported in Hoholiivka. RU sources concede UA forces hold positions in Oleshnia, Hornal, part of Hoholiivka. Russian sources claim infantry attacks west of Melovoye, expanding control south of the Sudzha-Yunakivka road. Russian sources (WarGonzo) feature 810th Marine Brigade operating in the area, claiming to push towards the state border and chronicling the "liberation" of Pogrebki.
  • Fighting reported near Huyevo (Sumy).
  • Russian sources report fighting near Zhuravka-Novenke-Basivka and Volodymyrivka. RU sources claim positional battles near Zhuravka continue (Slivocnhy Kapriz). Tula's 51st Airborne Regiment reportedly fighting near Basovka (Slivocnhy Kapriz). Conditions near Guev described as difficult for RU forces due to UA positions (Slivocnhy Kapriz). RU forces reportedly approached Vladimirovka (Sumy) (Slivocnhy Kapriz).
  • Russia's Investigative Committee (SK) claims investigation into alleged new killings of civilians in Sudzhansky district, specifically mentioning Kazachya Loknya (Aug-Sep 2024 timeframe), alongside claims of looting, shelling, use of civilian homes for military purposes, and arson by Ukrainian forces in Zaoleshenka, Kazachya Loknya, Zamostye (TASS, Dnevnik Desantnika, ASTRA). These are likely RU Information Operations, requiring independent verification.
  • Russian sources claim FPV drone operations targeting UA forces and equipment, including "Baba Yaga" type drones, in the Kursk border region (Basurin).
• Ukrainian Operations in Kursk Oblast (UA GenStaff, Mar 25 data): Operations continue. Russia conducted 19 air strikes (23 KABs), 247 shellings (7 MLRS). Ukrainian forces repelled 29 Russian assault actions.
• Russian Information Operations: Dissemination of alleged captured equipment/POW videos, surrender appeals continues. RU sources claim capture of UA personnel documents, codes, and drone information lists from captured positions (Dnevnik Desantnika). Allegations of UA civilian killings in Kursk (SK claims). Claims of foreign mercenaries present in Pogrebki (WarGonzo).

IV. Frontline Activity

• Overall Intensity: High tempo maintained (207 combat clashes reported on Mar 25 - UA GenStaff). Key pressure axes: Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Orikhiv. Significant Russian use of KABs, drones, and artillery.
• Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian attempts to breach defences repelled near Vovchansk, Tykhe, and towards Kamianka (UA GenStaff, Kharkiv OVA).
• Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Zahryzove and Petropavlivka (UA GenStaff, Kharkiv OVA). Civilian killed by shelling in Kupiansk city (Kharkiv OVA). UA source (Hayabusa) claims capture of RU soldiers by 115th OMBr near Kupiansk (video provided).
• Lyman Direction: 24 Russian attacks repelled near Yampolivka, Nadiia, Kopanky, and towards Novomykhailivka, Olhivka, Novoho, Katerynivka (UA GenStaff).
• Siversk Direction: 5 Russian assaults repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, and Ivano-Dariivka (UA GenStaff).
• Kramatorsk Direction: 2 clashes reported near Predtechyne and Bila Hora (UA GenStaff).
• Chasiv Yar Direction: Russian assaults persist. Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) claim continued storming of UA positions in Shevchenko microdistrict, focusing on clearing and consolidation to disrupt UA logistics. Offensive actions reported SE of Stupochky. RU UAVs reportedly targeting UA rear areas. RU air force reportedly active against UA positions in Konstantinovka.
• Toretsk Direction: 26 Russian attacks repelled in the Toretsk area and near Dyliivka and Krymske (UA GenStaff).
• Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the axis of maximum Russian effort. Ukrainian forces repelled 69 Russian assaults (Mar 25) near numerous settlements including Sukha Balka, Kalynove, Oleksandropil, Lysivka, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Shevchenko, Uspenivka, Bohdanivka, and towards Novoserhiivka, Malynivka, Kotliarivka (UA GenStaff).
  • RU Analysis (Rybar/Dva Maiora): Intense combat confirmed. Ukrainian counterattacks earlier in 2025 aimed to prevent semi-encirclement. Fighting continues near Lysivka. Russian objective stated as siege of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration. Ukraine reportedly reinforcing with reserves.
  • RU Claim (Viktorovka): Russian MoD video features commander claiming capture of Viktorovka, coordinated action, and capture of a UA soldier providing useful information (TASS).
• Novopavlivsk / Kurakhove Direction: 23 Russian attacks repelled near Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiia, Kostiantynopil (UA GenStaff). Russian sources claim continued pressure towards Rozlyv.
  • Confirmed TOS-1A Use: Russian MoD video shows TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" strike near Rozlyv, attributed to Vostok Group / 26th RKhBZ Regiment (MoD Russia, Poddubny, Voin DV, Colonelcassad). The 26th RKhBZ Regiment was awarded "Guards" status on Mar 10, 2025 (Voin DV).
  • Russian drone operators (40th Naval Infantry Bde) claimed destruction of a Ukrainian Kozak armored vehicle in the Shakhtarsk direction (Voin DV video).
• Huliaipole Direction: 1 Russian attempt to advance near Pryvilne repelled (UA GenStaff).
• Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 9 Russian attempts to advance near Kam'ianske and towards Lobkove, Stepove (UA GenStaff, Mar 25 data).
  • Russian MoD previously claimed liberation of Malye Shcherbaky.
  • Update/Claim (RU Sources): Russian source (TASS, citing Rogov) claims RU forces occupied the center of Lobkove village (Mar 26). Requires verification against UA reports and independent sources.
  • High intensity of Russian strikes continues in the area.
• Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 combat clash reported (UA GenStaff). No significant changes reported regarding the Krynky bridgehead. Russian sources appealing for funds for artillery recon units (identified as Guards Artillery Regiment) in this direction (4x4s, comms, FPV gear, generators, laptops) (Dva Mayora). UA forces (40 OBrBO) show drone strikes against RU personnel attempting water crossing (Nikolaevsky Vanek).

V. Other Significant Updates

• Political/Diplomatic:
  • Trump on Negotiations: US President Trump reiterated views on potential Russian delaying tactics in peace talks (RVvoenkor, Hayabusa, Kotsnews). Commentary on alleged Signal chat leak involving advisor Waltz continues (ASTRA, Sternenko).
  • Black Sea Ceasefire Talks: Commentary continues regarding potential US-mediated talks. RU sources frame any deal limited to Black Sea/energy as a "Putin victory" citing Western media (Times) and alleged lack of RU concessions, particularly regarding strikes on ports (RVvoenkor). Ukrainian sources question Russian adherence to any ceasefire (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, OperativnoZSU).
  • Budapest Memorandum: RU sources continue to amplify narratives questioning Ukraine's adherence/interpretation (Grenell claims).
  • Zelensky on Funding: Statements attributed to President Zelensky on funding needs highlighted by RU sources (TASS, RVvoenkor).
  • Moldova: Head of Gagauz autonomy (pro-Russian, Gutsul) detained in Chisinau airport. Initial reports linked detention to illegal party financing case (News Maker, Tsaplienko, ASTRA). Later reports attribute detention to a travel ban (TASS) or new circumstances in the case (TASS citing Moldovan authorities). Prosecution reportedly seeking pre-trial arrest; Anti-Corruption Center confirms new circumstances (TASS).
  • Armenia: Parliament reportedly approved bill to start EU accession process (TASS, OperativnoZSU, Rybar). Russian sources (Rybar) frame this negatively, highlighting simultaneous rejection of pension increases and alleging the move prioritizes anti-Russian external PR over domestic needs. Armenian Parliament Speaker Simonyan reportedly denied closer work with Russia and confirmed suspension of CSTO membership (Rybar).
  • EU Preparedness: Reports indicate the EU is urging residents to maintain 3-day emergency supplies (food/water) amid concerns over potential crises (war, pandemics, disasters) (RBC-Ukraine).
• Losses/Casualties:
  • Ukrainian Claims (RU Losses, Mar 25 - UA GenStaff): +1280 personnel, +5 tanks, +15 AFVs, +17 artillery systems, +59 UAVs, +77 vehicles, +1 special equipment. Cumulative loss figures also updated (OTU Kharkiv).
  • Southern Front Specific Claims (UA South Def Forces, Mar 25): +138 RU personnel, -1 tank, -5 arty, -17 vehicles/AFVs, -3 UAVs (Supercam/Zala), -10 quads, -2 bikes, -2 buggies, -2 boats, -1 gen, -5 comms antennas, -1 UAV control antenna. Claimed destruction of 64 RU shelters/posts, 3 observation posts.
  • Russian Claims (UA Losses): Kozak vehicle (Shakhtarsk). Captured documents/codes (Kursk). TOS-1A strike (Rozlyv). FPV strikes in Kursk border area (Basurin). Captured UA soldier (Viktorovka, Pokrovsk direction) (TASS). Boat with 4 personnel (Kherson) (Nikolaevsky Vanek / 40 OBrBO). Older claims exist.
  • Civilian Casualties:
    • Donetsk Oblast (Mar 25): 3 killed, 3 injured (Filashkin).
    • Belgorod Oblast (Mar 25/26): 1 injured from UAV attack (Colonelcassad).
  • Journalist Casualties (Alleged): Death of Russian Channel One journalist Anna Prokofieva reported near Demidovka, Belgorod Oblast (Sternenko, Butusov Plus, RVvoenkor, Voenkor Kotenok). Russian MFA claims targeted killing by UA forces (TASS). Russian sources also mention alleged killing of 3 journalists in Mykhailivka (LNR) on Mar 25 (Voenkor Kotenok).
• Technology/Tactics:
  • Russian: Continued heavy reliance on drones (Shahed, FPV, recon), KABs, artillery, TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS (confirmed use South Donetsk). Reported use of thermal imaging/FPVs near Chasiv Yar. Crowdfunding for drones (Mavic 3T), vehicles (4x4s), FPV gear, comms for Kherson front units (Dva Mayora). Reported opening of 3 new drone launch sites (RBC-Ukr, OperativnoZSU). FPV use claimed against UA drones ("Baba Yaga") in Kursk area (Basurin). Use of signal specialists to maintain communication links under fire (MoD Russia video). Coastal defense training in Crimea observed, involving armored vehicles (BTR variants, BMP-2, Tayfun-VDV), camouflage netting, additional armor, RWS, machine gun positions, and potentially countering UAV/USV threats (Basurin video).
  • Ukrainian: Confirmed drone operations (via RU interception claims & UA videos/reports, including Sternenko, 40 OBrBO). Successful air defence against Shaheds (56 confirmed downed overnight). Active defence and repelling ground assaults. Counterattacks reported (Pokrovsk). Use of FPVs (Shef Hayabusa video - content unanalyzed). Evidence of drone maintenance, repair, and 3D printing of parts in field conditions (DShV photos). Training observed with domestic "Bohdana" SPG (Tsaplienko video, UA GenStaff video). Fundraising for field cots for frontline units (109, 143, 1 OSHBr) (RBK-Ukraine video). Commemoration of National Guard Day (OTU Kharkiv).
• Information Operations/Propaganda:
  • RU sources continue narratives of UA losses, captured equipment/docs, alleged UA atrocities/misconduct (reversed, e.g., SK claims in Kursk), tactical failures. Direct surrender appeals. Budapest Memo narrative push. Lavrov comments on Zelensky's perceived weakness (Dnevnik Desantnika). Claims of Kyiv hunting RU war correspondents (Zakharova/TASS). Story highlighting RU medic bravery (Colonelcassad). Claims of foreign mercenaries in Kursk region (WarGonzo). Narratives about RU forces providing humanitarian aid (TASS video). Promotion of VDV "Potok" special operation narratives (Dva Mayora).
  • UA sources highlight RU misconduct (looting in Belgorod), RU reliance on crowdfunding, commemorate National Guard day, showcase drone/SPG capabilities and training, memorialize fallen soldiers (KMVA), highlight alleged Russian ceasefire violations (Lytvyn/OperativnoZSU), counter RU narratives (e.g., Butusov Plus on journalist death).
• Cyber/Economic:
  • Lukoil Cyberattack (UA Claim): Ukrainian sources (OperativnoZSU) report a massive cyberattack targeting Russian oil company Lukoil, allegedly paralyzing some office operations (including electronic passes) and preventing card payments for fuel. Requires verification.
  • Sanctions/Economy: Reports suggest major commodity traders might consider returning to Russia if sanctions are lifted, though skepticism remains (Bloomberg via TASS). Discussion on potential weakening of US pressure on Russia, particularly concerning oil/gas (RBC-Ukraine). Discussion on Ukraine's Hryvnia exchange rate outlook for 2025 (RBC-Ukraine).
• Russian Internal/Personnel:
  • Shooting incident involving military personnel in Moscow region reported (ASTRA, Mobilization News - content unanalyzed).
  • Rosstat reportedly stopped publishing regional life expectancy data.
  • Fire reported on RU vessel Crystal Asia near S. Korea, 6 Russians injured (TASS).
  • Russian Border Control (FSB) actively recruiting contract personnel (male/female, 18-40) for positions at Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports near Moscow, offering benefits including expedited pension accrual and housing assistance (Dva Mayora).
  • Reports allege mobilized Russian personnel are being coerced into signing contracts (Mobilization News).
  • Mayor election in Cherepovets involved a military candidate whose face was obscured in official reporting; candidate did not win (Sever.Realii).
  • Memorial events for deceased Russian personnel reported (TASS).