Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 07:28 UTC

I. Overall Assessment

Russian forces sustain high-intensity offensive operations across multiple axes, primarily concentrating efforts towards Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and in the Orikhiv direction on the Zaporizhzhia front. Drone warfare remains pervasive, employed extensively by both sides for reconnaissance and attack. Along the border with Russia's Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, positional fighting and artillery/drone exchanges continue, although adverse weather (fog) may be limiting ground maneuvers.

Russia leverages its manpower advantage, conducting widespread shelling and air attacks, including significant use of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs). Recent overnight strikes targeted non-energy infrastructure across various Ukrainian regions. The information environment remains heavily contested with active propaganda efforts from both sides.

Ukrainian forces are maintaining defensive postures, actively repelling numerous ground assaults and inflicting casualties on Russian forces. Counter-actions, especially drone strikes and air defence operations, are ongoing. Sustaining the defence requires considerable resources and continuous external support.

II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

Overnight Russian Strikes (Mar 25/26):
- Scale & Composition: Large-scale attack involving 117 aerial assets launched from Millerovo, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia), and Chauda (Crimea). The attack comprised Shahed-type UAVs and imitator drones.
- Targets: Primarily non-energy infrastructure.
- Air Defence Outcome (UA Air Force Official):
  - 56 Shahed-type drones confirmed intercepted across southern, northern, eastern, and central Ukraine.
  - 48 imitator drones were "locationally lost" without reported negative consequences.
- Regional Interceptions (Downed Shaheds - Combined Sources):
  - Southern Defence Forces Area: 24 (Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson oblasts).
  - Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 12 UAVs total.
  - Mykolaiv Oblast: 7 Shaheds.
  - Sumy Oblast: 5 Shaheds.
  - Other areas within overall 56 count.
- Impacted Areas & Damage:
  - Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Confirmed as the "most massive" drone attack on the city since Feb 2022 (Vilkul, Voenkor Kotenok, ASTRA). Damage reported to administrative buildings, warehouses, industrial enterprise, fire station, vehicles. Multiple fires occurred but were extinguished. No casualties reported (Vilkul, Tsaplienko). Russian sources (Voenkor Kotenok) claim hits on military facilities/ammo depots.
  - Okhtyrka (Sumy Oblast): Three Shahed strikes caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure.
  - Cherkasy Oblast: Infrastructure object damaged by UAV attack; fire extinguished. Warehouse damaged by debris (OperativnoZSU).
  - Other explosions/strikes reported in Zaporizhzhia city, Mykolaiv, other Dnipropetrovsk locations, Poltava Oblast.
- Claimed Moratorium (Unverified RU/UA Media): RBC-Ukraine reports an alleged US-RU agreement (post Mar 18 Trump-Putin call) for a moratorium on energy strikes. This claim requires strong verification and appears inconsistent with the observed targeting focus.
Russian Drone Launch Capabilities (Claim - RBC-Ukraine, OperativnoZSU): Reports indicate Russia opened 3 new drone launch sites near Primorsko-Akhtarsk, potentially increasing Shahed launch capacity per wave. Requires verification.
Russian Air/Artillery/Drone Intensity (UA GenStaff, Mar 25 data):
- 116 air strikes (184 KABs deployed in UA-controlled territory, +23 KABs in Kursk Oblast).
- Over 5,500 shelling incidents.
- 159 MLRS attacks.
- 2,233 kamikaze drones employed.
Southern Front Specifics (UA South Def Forces, Mar 25 data):
- 230 Russian shelling incidents (~1000 munitions).
- 400 kamikaze drone strikes, ~150 drone drops (targeting Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk).
- 36 KABs and 114 unguided rockets (NARs) used against civilian areas/infrastructure.
Ukrainian UAV Activity (Inside Russia/Occupied Areas - RU Claims):
- Russian MoD claimed interception/destruction of 9 Ukrainian UAVs overnight (5 Belgorod, 2 Kursk, 2 Black Sea) (Voenkor Kotenok, Colonelcassad). Verification required. One civilian injury reported in Belgorod Oblast from attacks (Colonelcassad).
Russian Tactical Aviation / KABs:
- Threat remains persistent along frontlines and border areas.
- Activity reported in NE direction; KAB launches towards Kharkiv Oblast (UA Air Force Alert, 06:39 UTC).
- Extensive use reported previously across multiple Oblasts (UA GenStaff).
Black Sea Missile Threat:
- Current Posture: One Russian Kalibr missile carrier active (up to 4 missiles). No Russian naval assets detected in Sea of Azov (UA Navy, UA GenStaff).
- Mediterranean Posture: Four Russian ships remain, including three Kalibr carriers (up to 26 missiles) (UA General Staff).

III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)

Overall Assessment: Positional fighting, localized engagements, and intense artillery/drone exchanges continue. Fog reported limiting some ground activity. Russian sources maintain narratives of clearing Ukrainian presence and pushing into Sumy Oblast.
Belgorod Oblast:
- Fighting previously reported near Demydovka. Situation in Krasnoyaruzhsky District remains tense. Civilian evacuation efforts ongoing.
- Alleged death of Russian state media journalist Anna Prokofieva reported near Demidovka (Sternenko). Requires verification.
- Reports of alleged Russian military misconduct (looting) in evacuated villages like Repyakhovka (Butusov, citing RU sources).
Kursk Oblast / Sumy Oblast Border:
- Sudzha Area: Russian sources claim VDV operations towards Sumy border. Fighting reported in Hoholiivka. RU sources concede UA forces hold positions in Oleshnia, Hornal, part of Hoholiivka. Russian sources claim infantry attacks west of Melovoye, expanding control south of the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.
- Fighting reported near Huyevo (Sumy).
- Russian sources report fighting near Zhuravka-Novenke-Basivka and Volodymyrivka. RU sources claim positional battles near Zhuravka continue (Slivocnhy Kapriz). Tula's 51st Airborne Regiment reportedly fighting near Basovka (Slivocnhy Kapriz). Conditions near Guev described as difficult for RU forces due to UA positions (Slivocnhy Kapriz). RU forces reportedly approached Vladimirovka (Sumy) (Slivocnhy Kapriz).
- Russia's Investigative Committee (SK) claims investigation into alleged new killings of civilians in Sudzhansky district (TASS). Likely RU Information Operation.
- Russian sources claim FPV drone operations targeting UA forces and equipment, including "Baba Yaga" type drones, in the Kursk border region (Basurin).
Ukrainian Operations in Kursk Oblast (UA GenStaff, Mar 25 data): Operations continue. Russia conducted 19 air strikes (23 KABs), 247 shellings (7 MLRS). Ukrainian forces repelled 29 Russian assault actions.
Russian Information Operations: Dissemination of alleged captured equipment/POW videos, surrender appeals continues. RU sources claim capture of UA personnel documents, codes, and drone information lists from captured positions (Dnevnik Desantnika). Allegations of UA civilian killings in Kursk.

IV. Frontline Activity

Overall Intensity: High tempo maintained (207 combat clashes reported on Mar 25 - UA GenStaff). Key pressure axes: Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Orikhiv. Significant Russian use of KABs, drones, and artillery.
Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian attempts to breach defences repelled near Vovchansk, Tykhe, and towards Kamianka (UA GenStaff, Kharkiv OVA).
Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Zahryzove and Petropavlivka (UA GenStaff, Kharkiv OVA). Civilian killed by shelling in Kupiansk city (Kharkiv OVA). UA source (Hayabusa) claims capture of RU soldiers by 115th OMBr near Kupiansk (video provided).
Lyman Direction: 24 Russian attacks repelled near Yampolivka, Nadiia, Kopanky, and towards Novomykhailivka, Olhivka, Novoho, Katerynivka (UA GenStaff).
Siversk Direction: 5 Russian assaults repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, and Ivano-Dariivka (UA GenStaff).
Kramatorsk Direction: 2 clashes reported near Predtechyne and Bila Hora (UA GenStaff).
Chasiv Yar Direction: Russian assaults persist. Russian sources claim continued storming of UA positions in Shevchenko microdistrict, focusing on clearing and consolidation to disrupt UA logistics. Offensive actions reported SE of Stupochky. RU UAVs reportedly targeting UA rear areas. RU air force reportedly active against UA positions in Konstantinovka (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Toretsk Direction: 26 Russian attacks repelled in the Toretsk area and near Dyliivka and Krymske (UA GenStaff).
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the axis of maximum Russian effort. Ukrainian forces repelled 69 Russian assaults (Mar 25) near numerous settlements including Sukha Balka, Kalynove, Oleksandropil, Lysivka, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Shevchenko, Uspenivka, Bohdanivka, and towards Novoserhiivka, Malynivka, Kotliarivka (UA GenStaff).
- RU Analysis (Rybar/Dva Maiora): Intense combat confirmed. Ukrainian counterattacks earlier in 2025 aimed to prevent semi-encirclement. Fighting continues near Lysivka. Russian objective stated as siege of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration. Ukraine reportedly reinforcing with reserves.
Novopavlivsk / Kurakhove Direction: 23 Russian attacks repelled near Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiia, Kostiantynopil (UA GenStaff). Russian sources claim continued pressure towards Rozlyv.
- RU sources claim/video of TOS-1A strike near Rozlyv (Colonelcassad). Confirmed by RU MoD video attributed to Vostok Group (MoD Russia, Poddubny).
- Russian drone operators (40th Naval Infantry Bde) claimed destruction of a Ukrainian Kozak armored vehicle in the Shakhtarsk direction (Voin DV video).
Huliaipole Direction: 1 Russian attempt to advance near Pryvilne repelled (UA GenStaff).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
- Ukrainian forces repelled 9 Russian attempts to advance near Kam'ianske and towards Lobkove, Stepove (UA GenStaff, Mar 25 data).
- Russian MoD previously claimed liberation of Malye Shcherbaky.
- Update/Claim (RU Sources): Russian source (TASS, citing Rogov) claims RU forces occupied the center of Lobkove village (Mar 26). Requires verification against UA reports and independent sources.
- High intensity of Russian strikes continues in the area.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 combat clash reported (UA GenStaff). No significant changes reported regarding the Krynky bridgehead. Russian sources appealing for funds for artillery recon units in this direction (4x4s, comms, FPV gear) (Dva Mayora).

V. Other Significant Updates