Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 06:58 UTC

I. Overall Assessment

High-intensity combat operations persist, with Russian forces maintaining significant offensive pressure along multiple axes, notably towards Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and on the Zaporizhzhia front (Orikhiv direction). Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, utilized extensively by both sides. Positional fighting continues along the border areas adjacent to Russia's Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, though ground activity may be constrained by adverse weather (fog), while artillery and drone exchanges persist.

Russian forces continue leveraging manpower advantages and conducting widespread shelling and air attacks, including extensive use of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs). Overnight strikes focused on non-energy infrastructure across Ukraine. The information space remains highly contested.

Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, actively repelling numerous Russian assaults and inflicting losses. Counter-actions, particularly via drone strikes and air defence, continue. Sustaining defence requires significant resource allocation and ongoing external support.

II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

Overnight Russian Strikes (Mar 25/26):
- Scale & Targets: Large-scale attack involving 117 Shahed and imitator drones launched from Millerovo, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia), and Chauda (Crimea). Primarily targeted non-energy infrastructure.
- Air Defence Results (UA Air Force Official): 56 Shahed-type drones confirmed shot down across southern, northern, eastern, and central Ukraine. 48 imitator drones were "locationally lost" without reported negative consequences.
- Regional Breakdown (Downed Shaheds):
  - Southern Defence Forces Area: 24 downed (Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson oblasts).
  - Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 12 UAVs total downed (previous report).
  - Mykolaiv Oblast: 7 Shahed drones downed (previous report).
  - Sumy Oblast: 5 Shahed drones downed (previous report).
- Impacted Areas:
  - Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Confirmed "most massive" drone attack since Feb 2022. Damage to administrative buildings, warehouses, industrial enterprise, fire station, vehicles. No casualties reported.
  - Okhtyrka (Sumy Oblast): Three Shahed strikes caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure.
  - Cherkasy Oblast: Infrastructure object damaged by UAV attack; fire extinguished. Warehouse damaged by debris.
  - Other explosions/strikes reported in Zaporizhzhia city, Mykolaiv, other Dnipropetrovsk locations, Poltava Oblast.
- Claimed Moratorium (Unverified): RBC-Ukraine reports alleged US-RU agreement (post Mar 18 Trump-Putin call) for moratorium on energy strikes, claiming both sides adhered initially. Requires strong verification; contradicts focus on non-energy infrastructure.
Russian Drone Launch Capabilities (Claim): RBC-Ukraine and OperativnoZSU report Russia opened 3 new drone launch sites near Primorsko-Akhtarsk, potentially increasing Shahed launch capacity per wave. Requires verification.
Russian Air/Artillery/Drone Intensity (UA GenStaff, Mar 25 data):
- 116 air strikes conducted (184 KABs deployed).
- Over 5,500 shelling incidents.
- 159 MLRS attacks.
- 2,233 kamikaze drones employed.
Southern Front Specifics (UA South Def Forces, Mar 25 data):
- 230 Russian shelling incidents (~1000 munitions).
- 400 kamikaze drone strikes, ~150 drone drops (targeting Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk).
- 36 KABs and 114 unguided rockets (NARs) used against civilians/infrastructure.
Ukrainian UAV Activity (Inside Russia/Occupied Areas - RU Claims):
- Russian MoD claimed interception/destruction of 9 Ukrainian UAVs overnight (5 Belgorod, 2 Kursk, 2 Black Sea). Repeated by RU sources. Verification required.
Russian Tactical Aviation / KABs:
- Threat remains persistent along frontlines and border areas.
- Active in NE direction; KAB launches reported towards Kharkiv Oblast (UA Air Force Alert, 06:39 UTC).
- Extensive use reported previously across Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson Oblasts (UA GenStaff). Used against Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast.
Black Sea Missile Threat:
- Current Posture: One Russian Kalibr missile carrier active (up to 4 missiles). No Russian naval assets detected in Sea of Azov (UA Navy, UA GenStaff).
- Mediterranean Posture: Four Russian ships remain, including three Kalibr carriers (up to 26 missiles) (UA General Staff).

III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)

Overall Assessment: Positional fighting, localized clashes, and intense artillery/drone exchanges continue. Fog reported limiting some activity. Russian sources maintain narratives of clearing UA presence and pushing into Sumy Oblast.
Belgorod Oblast:
- Fighting previously reported in Demydovka. Situation in Krasnoyaruzhsky District described as difficult. Evacuation of children ongoing.
- Claims of RU military misconduct (looting) in evacuated villages like Repyakhovka reported (Butusov, citing RU sources).
Kursk Oblast / Sumy Oblast Border:
- Sudzha Area: Russian sources claim VDV operations towards Sumy border. Fighting reported in Hoholiivka. RU sources concede UA forces hold positions in Oleshnia, Hornal, part of Hoholiivka. Russian sources claim infantry attacks west of Melovoye, expanding control south of the Sudzha-Yunakivka road to <3km from demarcation line (Rybar, Slivocnhy Kapriz).
- Fighting reported near Huyevo (Sumy).
- Russian sources report fighting near Zhuravka-Novenke-Basivka and Volodymyrivka.
- Russia's Investigative Committee (SK) claims investigation into alleged new killings of civilians in Sudzhansky district. Likely RU Information Operation.
Ukrainian Operations in Kursk Oblast (UA GenStaff, Mar 25 data): Ukrainian forces continue operations. Russia conducted 19 air strikes (23 KABs), 247 shellings (7 MLRS). Ukrainian forces repelled 29 Russian assault actions.
Russian Information Operations: Continued dissemination of alleged captured equipment/POW videos, surrender appeals. Claims of high UA drone use near Bilohorivka (LNR) - >200/day (Marochko/TASS). Claims of captured UA documents/codes (Dnevnik Desantnika).

IV. Frontline Activity

Overall Intensity: Remains high (207 combat clashes, Mar 25 - UA GenStaff). Key pressure points: Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Orikhiv. Heavy RU use of KABs, drones, artillery.
Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian attempts to breach defences repelled near Vovchansk, Tykhe, and towards Kamianka (UA GenStaff, Kharkiv OVA).
Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Zahryzove and Petropavlivka (UA GenStaff, Kharkiv OVA). Civilian killed by shelling in Kupiansk city (Kharkiv OVA). UA source (Hayabusa) claims capture of RU soldiers by 115 OMBr.
Lyman Direction: 24 Russian attacks repelled near Yampolivka, Nadiia, Kopanky, and towards Novomykhailivka, Olhivka, Novoho, Katerynivka (UA GenStaff).
Siversk Direction: 5 Russian assaults repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, and Ivano-Dariivka (UA GenStaff).
Kramatorsk Direction: 2 clashes reported near Predtechyne and Bila Hora (UA GenStaff).
Chasiv Yar Direction: Russian assaults persist within the settlement and on flanks. Russian Sever-V Brigade reported active using artillery/FPVs (RU sources/video).
Toretsk Direction: 26 Russian attacks repelled in the Toretsk area and near Dyliivka and Krymske (UA GenStaff).
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains area of highest intensity. Ukrainian forces repelled 69 Russian assaults (Mar 25) near numerous settlements including Sukha Balka, Kalynove, Oleksandropil, Lysivka, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Shevchenko, Uspenivka, Bohdanivka, and towards Novoserhiivka, Malynivka, Kotliarivka (UA GenStaff).
- Rybar/Dva Maiora Analysis: Intense back-and-forth fighting confirmed. Ukrainian counterattacks early 2025 aimed to prevent semi-encirclement. Ukraine briefly held parts of Shevchenko mid-March but were pushed back. Fighting continues near Lysivka. Russian objective stated as siege of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration. Ukraine reinforcing from reserves.
Novopavlivsk / Kurakhove Direction: 23 Russian attacks repelled near Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiia, Kostiantynopil (UA GenStaff). Russian sources claim continued pressure towards Rozlyv. Russian claim/video of TOS-1A strike near Rozlyv (Colonelcassad). Russian drone operators (40th Naval Infantry Bde) claimed destruction of a Ukrainian Kozak armored vehicle in the Shakhtarsk direction (Voin DV video).
Huliaipole Direction: 1 Russian attempt to advance near Pryvilne repelled (UA GenStaff).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
- Ukrainian forces repelled 9 Russian attempts to advance near Kam'ianske and towards Lobkove, Stepove (UA GenStaff, Mar 25 data).
- Russian MoD claimed liberation of Malye Shcherbaky. Ongoing fighting reported by RU sources near Lobkove and Shcherbaky.
- Update/Contradiction: Russian source (TASS, citing Rogov) claims RU forces occupied the center of Lobkove (Mar 26). Requires verification against UA reports.
- High intensity of Russian strikes continues.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 combat clash reported (UA GenStaff). No significant changes reported regarding Krynky bridgehead.

V. Other Significant Updates