Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 06:28 UTC

I. Overall Assessment

The operational environment remains defined by high-intensity combat operations, with Russian forces maintaining significant offensive pressure along multiple axes, particularly towards Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and on the Zaporizhzhia front (Orikhiv direction). Drone warfare continues to dominate, employed extensively by both sides for reconnaissance, strike, and counter-drone missions. Positional fighting persists along the border areas adjacent to Russia's Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, though current ground operations are reported to be somewhat constrained by adverse weather (fog), while artillery and drone exchanges continue.

Russian forces leverage their advantage in manpower and conduct widespread shelling and air attacks, notably using Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) extensively. Overnight strikes focused on non-energy infrastructure across Ukraine. The information space is heavily contested, with narratives surrounding potential negotiations, historical interpretations, border incursions, and financial support for Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, actively repelling numerous Russian assaults and inflicting losses, while seeking opportunities for counter-actions, particularly through drone strikes and air defence efforts. Sustaining defence capabilities requires significant resource allocation and continued external support.

II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

Overnight Russian Strikes (Non-Energy Focus):
- Multiple Shahed drone strikes targeted various locations, seemingly avoiding energy infrastructure potentially covered by a claimed, unverified US-RU moratorium agreement.
- Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Suffered what local authorities described as the "most massive" drone attack since the full-scale invasion began. Damage reported to administrative buildings, warehouses, an industrial enterprise, a fire station, and vehicles. No casualties reported.
- Okhtyrka (Sumy Oblast): Three Shahed strikes caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure (residential buildings, shops, market).
- Other Affected Areas: Explosions/strikes also reported in Zaporizhzhia city, Mykolaiv, other Dnipropetrovsk locations, Poltava Oblast, and Cherkasy Oblast.
Air Defence Results (UA Claims - March 25/Overnight):
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 12 UAVs downed.
- Mykolaiv Oblast: 7 Shahed drones downed.
- Sumy Oblast: 5 Shahed drones downed.
- Kyiv Oblast: 1 enemy UAV detected leaving Kyiv airspace; no alerts, damage, or casualties reported in Kyiv city (KMVA).
Russian Air/Artillery/Drone Intensity (UA GenStaff, March 25):
- 116 Russian air strikes conducted, deploying 184 KABs.
- Over 5,500 shelling incidents recorded.
- 159 MLRS attacks launched.
- 2,233 kamikaze drones employed.
Ukrainian UAV Activity (Inside Russia/Occupied Areas - RU Claims):
- Russian MoD claimed interception/destruction of 9 Ukrainian UAVs overnight (5 Belgorod, 2 Kursk, 2 Black Sea). Verification required.
Russian Tactical Aviation / Guided Bombs (KABs): Threat remains persistent along frontlines and border areas. Extensive use reported across Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts (UA GenStaff). KABs also used against Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast.
Black Sea Missile Threat:
- Current Posture: One Russian Kalibr missile carrier active (up to 4 missiles). No Russian naval assets detected in Sea of Azov (UA Navy, UA GenStaff).
- Mediterranean Posture: Four Russian ships remain, including three Kalibr carriers (up to 26 missiles) (UA General Staff).

III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)

Overall Assessment: Positional fighting, localized clashes, and artillery/drone exchanges continue. Fog in Belgorod Oblast reported limiting small arms engagements and air reconnaissance/strikes for both sides. Russian sources maintain narratives of clearing Ukrainian presence from Kursk Oblast and expanding footholds into Sumy Oblast.
Belgorod Oblast:
- Fighting reported in Demydovka.
- Situation in Krasnoyaruzhsky District described as difficult; fog reducing combat intensity. Evacuation of children ongoing.
- Russian sources claim repelling Ukrainian breach attempts near strongpoints.
Kursk Oblast / Sumy Oblast Border:
- Oleshnia / Hoholiivka / Melovoye / Sudzha Area: Russian sources claim VDV operations towards Sumy border. Fighting reported in Hoholiivka. Russian sources concede Ukrainian forces hold positions in Oleshnia, Hornal, and part of Hoholiivka. Russian sources claim infantry attacks west of Melovoye, expanding control south of the Sudzha-Yunakivka road to within 3km of the demarcation line (Rybar, Slivocnhy Kapriz).
- Fighting reported near Huyevo (Sumy). TASS claims Ukrainian forces mined a forest near Huyevo, impeding their own retreat routes. Verification needed.
- Russian sources report fighting near Zhuravka-Novenke-Basivka and Volodymyrivka.
Ukrainian Operations in Kursk Oblast (UA GenStaff): Ukrainian forces continue operations. Over the past day, Russia conducted 19 air strikes (23 KABs), 247 shellings (7 MLRS). Ukrainian forces repelled 29 Russian assault actions.
Russian Information Operations: Continued dissemination of alleged captured equipment videos (HMMWV, Roshel, T-72EA), alleged POW interviews, and surrender appeals targeting Ukrainian forces.

IV. Frontline Activity

Overall Intensity: Remains high, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Orikhiv directions. Russian forces heavily utilize KABs, drones, and artillery. (UA GenStaff reports 207 combat clashes on March 25).
Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian attempts to breach defences repelled near Vovchansk, Tykhe, and towards Kamianka (UA GenStaff, Kharkiv OVA).
Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Zahryzove and Petropavlivka (UA GenStaff, Kharkiv OVA). Civilian killed by shelling in Kupiansk city (Kharkiv OVA). RU sources previously claimed engagement near Dvorichna, Sahunivka, a bridgehead between Krasne Pershe-Kamianka, and near Zapadne–Kalynove line.
Lyman Direction: 24 Russian attacks repelled near Yampolivka, Nadiia, Kopanky, and towards Novomykhailivka, Olhivka, Novoho, Katerynivka (UA GenStaff). Russian sources previously claimed advances near Yampolivka.
Siversk Direction: 5 Russian assaults repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, and Ivano-Dariivka (UA GenStaff). RU claims UA increased drone use near Bilohorivka (LNR) to over 200/day.
Kramatorsk Direction: 2 clashes reported near Predtechyne and Bila Hora (UA GenStaff).
Chasiv Yar Direction: Russian assaults persist within the settlement and on flanks. Russian Sever-V Brigade reported active, using artillery and FPV drones against Ukrainian positions in forest belts (RU sources).
Toretsk Direction: 26 Russian attacks repelled in the Toretsk area and near Dyliivka and Krymske (UA GenStaff). Previous reports noted fighting near Panteleimonivka.
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains area of highest intensity. Ukrainian forces repelled 69 Russian assaults near Sukha Balka, Kalynove, Oleksandropil, Zelene Pole, Lysivka, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Shevchenko, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Bohdanivka, and towards Novoserhiivka, Malynivka, Kotliarivka (UA GenStaff).
- Rybar/Dva Maiora Analysis: Describes intense back-and-forth fighting. Ukrainian forces counterattacked in early 2025 aiming for Uspenivka, Kotlyne, Peschane, Shevchenko to prevent semi-encirclement. Ukraine briefly held parts of Shevchenko mid-March but were pushed back by Russian counterattacks and effective drone/artillery use. Fighting continues near Lysivka. Russian objective stated as siege of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration. Ukraine reinforcing from reserves, including units potentially withdrawn from Kursk. Civilian casualties (1 killed) reported in Pokrovsk (Mar 25).
Novopavlivsk / Kurakhove Direction: 23 Russian attacks repelled near Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiia, Kostiantynopil (UA GenStaff). Russian sources claimed continued pressure towards Rozlyv, with Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian drone operators (40th Naval Infantry Bde) claimed destruction of a Ukrainian Kozak armored vehicle in the Shakhtarsk (South Donetsk) direction (Voin DV).
Huliaipole Direction: 1 Russian attempt to advance near Pryvilne repelled (UA GenStaff).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 9 Russian attempts to advance repelled near Kam'ianske and towards Lobkove, Stepove (UA GenStaff).
- Heavy fighting previously reported between Stepove and Shcherbaky.
- Russian MoD claimed liberation of Malye Shcherbaky. Ongoing fighting reported by RU sources on outskirts of Lobkove and for Shcherbaky. RU sources claimed elimination of UA forces near Lobkove.
- High intensity of Russian strikes continues (356 strikes reported by Zaporizhzhia OVA in previous 24h).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 combat clash reported (UA GenStaff). No significant changes reported regarding the Krynky bridgehead.

V. Other Significant Updates