Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 05:58 UTC

I. Overall Assessment

The operational environment remains characterized by sustained high intensity, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure along several key axes, notably towards Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and on the Zaporizhzhia front. Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature, employed extensively by both sides for reconnaissance and strike missions. Positional fighting persists along the border areas adjacent to Russia's Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, though current operations are somewhat hampered by adverse weather conditions (fog).

Significant developments include claims regarding the specifics of energy infrastructure covered by a temporary US-Russia strike moratorium, alongside continued Russian strikes targeting non-energy infrastructure across Ukraine. The information space is actively contested, with narratives focusing on potential negotiations, historical interpretations (Budapest Memorandum), and the situation along the border.

Ukrainian forces maintain defensive operations while seeking opportunities for counter-actions and attriting Russian capabilities, particularly through drone strikes and air defence efforts.

II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

Overnight Russian Strikes (Non-Energy Focus):
- Multiple strikes were reported overnight, targeting various locations across Ukraine. These strikes appear to have avoided energy infrastructure potentially covered by the claimed US-RU moratorium agreement.
- Affected Areas:
  - Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Described by local authorities as the "most massive" drone attack on the city since the start of the full-scale invasion. Multiple fires occurred, damaging an administrative building, warehouses, an industrial enterprise, a fire station, and six vehicles. No casualties reported. (Lysak/Dnipropetrovsk OVA, Vilkul, RBC-Ukraine, Operativno ZSU, Dva Mayora).
  - Zaporizhzhia city, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (other locations), Poltava Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast: Explosions and strikes reported (Rybar, Tsaplienko).
  - Okhtyrka (Sumy Oblast): Three Shahed drone strikes caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure (residential buildings, shops, market) overnight. A utility building fire was reported. No preliminary casualties reported (Operativno ZSU, Tsaplienko).
Air Defence Results (UA Claims):
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 12 UAVs downed overnight (Lysak/Dnipropetrovsk OVA, Vilkul).
- Mykolaiv Oblast: 7 Shahed drones downed overnight (RBC-Ukraine).
- Sumy Oblast: 5 Shahed drones downed overnight (Sumy OVA via RBC-Ukraine).
- Air raid threat subsided; "All Clear" issued around 04:04 UTC.
Ukrainian UAV Activity (Inside Russia/Occupied Areas):
- Russian MoD Claims: 9 Ukrainian UAVs were allegedly intercepted/destroyed overnight: 5 over Belgorod Oblast, 2 over Kursk Oblast, and 2 over the Black Sea (TASS, Dnevnik Desantnika, ASTRA). Verification required.
Russian Tactical Aviation / Guided Bombs (KABs): The threat from KABs remains persistent along frontlines and border areas. The Ukrainian General Staff reported 84 Russian air strikes using 129 KABs on March 25.
Black Sea Missile Threat:
- Current Posture: One Russian Kalibr missile carrier is active (potential salvo up to 4 missiles). No Russian naval assets were detected in the Sea of Azov (UA Navy, UA General Staff).
- Mediterranean Posture: Four Russian ships remain, including three Kalibr carriers with a potential total salvo of 26 missiles (UA General Staff).

III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)

Overall Assessment: Positional fighting, localized clashes, and artillery/drone exchanges continue. Fog in the Belgorod region is reportedly limiting small arms engagements and air reconnaissance/strike capabilities for both sides. Russian sources claim continued operations to clear Ukrainian presence from Kursk Oblast and expand footholds in Sumy Oblast. Significant Russian information operations are focused on depicting successful repulsions of Ukrainian incursions and alleged difficulties faced by Ukrainian forces.
Belgorod Oblast:
- Fighting reported in Demydovka (Rybar, WarGonzo).
- The situation in Krasnoyaruzhsky District remains difficult, though fog has reduced the intensity of audible combat. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces are building up near this district (Rybar, Operatsia Z). Evacuation of children from the area is occurring (Operatsia Z).
- Russian sources claim Ukrainian attempts to breach near strongpoints were repelled by artillery; renewed pushes are anticipated as weather improves (Dnevnik Desantnika).
- Russian border guard drone activity reported, targeting Ukrainian equipment and infantry, including alleged staging areas in Myropillia (Sumy) (Dva Mayora).
- Civilian Impact (RU Claims): A woman was reportedly injured by a drone in Politotdelsky. Attacks and damage reported in Kazinka, Shebekino, Tishanka, Bessonovka (Rybar).
Kursk Oblast / Sumy Oblast Border:
- Oleshnia / Hoholiivka Area: Russian sources claim VDV forces continue operations towards the Sumy border, targeting retreating Ukrainian groups. Fighting reported in Hoholiivka (WarGonzo, Dnevnik Desantnika). Russian sources concede Ukrainian forces still hold Oleshnia, Hornal, and part of Hoholiivka (Rybar).
- Fighting reported near Huyevo (Sumy) (Rybar). Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces mined a forest near Huyevo, impeding their own potential retreat routes (TASS).
- Russian sources report fighting near Zhuravka-Novenke-Basivka and Volodymyrivka on the Sumy border (Rybar).
Russian Claims & Information Operations:
- Dissemination of video allegedly showing destroyed Ukrainian Western-supplied equipment (HMMWV, Roshel Senator, T-72EA) in Kursk Oblast (Colonelcassad). Requires verification; likely propaganda.
- Publication of an interview with an alleged captured Ukrainian soldier claiming poor command planning during a retreat from Sudzha (TASS). Propaganda/IO element.
- Direct appeals to Ukrainian commanders on the border to surrender or disobey orders (Dnevnik Desantnika). Psychological operation.

IV. Frontline Activity

Overall Intensity: Remains high, particularly focused on the Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) directions. Russian forces continue to heavily utilize air power (including KABs), drones, and artillery.
Kupiansk Direction (New RU Claims):
- Russian forces claim engagement near Dvorichna and Sahunivka (right bank of Oskil River).
- Claim establishment of a new bridgehead between Krasne Pershe and Kamianka.
- Claim fighting near the Zapadne – Kalynove line (Rybar).
Lyman Direction: Russian sources (TASS/Marochko - Previous) claimed a 500m advance near Yampolivka. ISW previously reported Russian advances near Terny and Spirne.
Chasiv Yar Direction:
- Russian assault operations persist within Chasiv Yar itself and along the flanks (WarGonzo).
- Russian sources report drone donations (quadcopters) being received by VDV units (specifically the 331st Guards Parachute Regt) operating in this sector, indicating reliance on external/crowdsourced supply for this capability (Ark Specnaz).
Toretsk Direction: Fighting reported near Panteleimonivka (Rybar, WarGonzo).
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the area of highest intensity. Heavy fighting continues across multiple sectors. No significant changes to the line of contact were reported by WarGonzo in the last 24 hours. The Ukrainian General Staff reported 68 Russian attempts to advance here on March 25.
Kurakhove / South Donetsk Direction:
- Russian forces claim continued pressure towards Rozlyv, with Ukrainian forces conducting counterattacks (WarGonzo).
- Russian sources claim repelling Ukrainian attacks near Rozlyv, Veseloe, Vilne Pole (Rybar).
- Earlier Russian claims indicated an advance (500m deep, 2.5km wide) near Rozlyv (Rybar, Dva Mayora - Previous).
- Russian Spetsnaz drone operations reported in the Donetsk region, targeting Ukrainian positions, equipment, and other drones (Colonelcassad).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
- Heavy fighting reported between Stepove and Shcherbaky (Rybar).
- Russian MoD Claims Liberation of Malye Shcherbaky (Rybar, WarGonzo).
- Russian sources report ongoing fighting on the outskirts of Lobkove and for Shcherbaky (Rybar, WarGonzo). Russian sources also claim elimination of Ukrainian forces near Lobkove who refused surrender (Ark Specnaz).
- High Intensity Russian Strikes: Zaporizhzhia OVA reported 356 Russian strikes (24 Air, 162 UAV, 8 MLRS, 162 Artillery) over the past 24 hours on 13 settlements. Damage to civilian property/infrastructure reported, no civilian casualties mentioned in this specific update (Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): No significant changes reported in recent updates regarding the bridgehead at Krynky.

V. Other Significant Updates