Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 05:28 UTC
I. Overall Assessment
The operational tempo remains high, characterized by continued Russian offensive pressure along multiple axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and the Zaporizhzhia front. Intense drone warfare persists, utilized by both sides for reconnaissance and strikes. Fighting continues along the Kursk/Belgorod border regions, though impacted by adverse weather (fog). Significant developments include the claimed publication of specific energy infrastructure covered by the US-Russia moratorium agreement and continued Russian strikes on non-energy targets across Ukraine. Information operations and political maneuvering surrounding potential negotiations and historical narratives (Budapest Memorandum) are ongoing.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Overnight Russian Strikes (Non-Energy Focus):
Multiple strikes reported overnight targeting various locations, seemingly avoiding energy infrastructure specified in the recent US-RU agreement.
Affected Areas: Kryvyi Rih (>10 explosions), Zaporizhzhia city, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast (Rybar, Tsaplienko).
Okhtyrka (Sumy): Significant civilian infrastructure damage (residential buildings, shops, market) from three Shahed drone strikes overnight. One utility building fire reported. No preliminary casualties. (Operativno ZSU, Tsaplienko).
Air Defence Results (UA Claims):
7 Shahed drones downed over Mykolaiv Oblast (RBC-Ukraine).
5 Shahed drones downed over Sumy Oblast (Sumy OVA via RBC-Ukraine).
Russian MoD Claims: 9 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted/destroyed overnight: 5 over Belgorod Oblast, 2 over Kursk Oblast, 2 over the Black Sea (TASS, Dnevnik Desantnika, ASTRA). Verification required.
Russian Tactical Aviation / Guided Bombs (KABs): Threat remains ongoing along frontlines and border areas. UGS (Mar 25) reported 84 RU air strikes using 129 KABs.
Black Sea Missile Threat:
Current Posture: 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier detected (total potential salvo up to 4 missiles). No RU naval assets in Sea of Azov (UA Navy, UA General Staff).
Mediterranean Posture: 4 Russian ships present, including 3 Kalibr carriers (potential total salvo of 26 missiles) (UA General Staff).
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Overall Assessment: Positional fighting, clashes, and artillery/drone strikes continue. Weather (fog) reportedly limiting small arms combat and air operations in Belgorod Oblast. Russian forces claim continued operations to clear Kursk Oblast and expand presence in Sumy Oblast. Significant RU information operations focus on repelling UA incursions and alleged UA retreat difficulties.
Belgorod Oblast:
Fighting reported in Demydovka (Rybar, WarGonzo).
RU sources claim UA attempts to breach near strongpoints repelled by artillery; anticipate renewed pushes as weather improves (Dnevnik Desantnika).
RU claims UA buildup near Krasnoyaruzhsky District (Rybar).
RU border guards reportedly active with drones, targeting UA equipment/infantry, including in Myropillia (Sumy), claimed as a UA staging area (Dva Mayora).
Civilian impact (RU Claims): Woman injured by drone in Politotdelsky; attacks/damage in Kazinka, Shebekino, Tishanka, Bessonovka (Rybar).
Kursk Oblast / Sumy Oblast Border:
Oleshnia / Gogolivka Area (RU Claims): RU VDV forces claim continued operations, pushing towards Sumy border, targeting retreating UA groups and drones (Dnevnik Desantnika). Fighting reported inHoholiivka (WarGonzo).
RU sources claim UA still holds Oleshnia, Hornal, part of Hoholiivka (Rybar).
Fighting reported near Huyevo (Sumy) (Rybar).
RU claims fighting near Zhuravka-Novenke-Basivka and Volodymyrivka (Sumy border area) (Rybar).
Russian Claims & Information Operations:
Video disseminated showing destroyed UA Western equipment (HMMWV, Roshel Senator, T-72EA) in Kursk Oblast (Colonelcassad). Propaganda; requires verification.
Interview with alleged captured UA soldier claiming poor command planning during retreat from Sudzha (TASS). Propaganda/IO.
Appeal to UA commanders on border to surrender/disobey orders (Dnevnik Desantnika). Psy-Op.
IV. Frontline Activity
Overall Intensity: Remains high, particularly Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Zaporizhzhia. Continued heavy Russian use of air power, drones, and artillery.
Kupiansk Direction (New RU Claims):
RU forces claim fighting near Dvorichna and Sahunivka (right bank Oskil).
Claim establishment of new bridgehead between Krasne Pershe and Kamianka.
Claim fighting near Zapadne – Kalynove рубеж (Rybar).
Lyman Direction: RU claim (TASS/Marochko - Previous) of 500m advance near Yampolivka. ISW previously reported RU advances near Terny, Spirne.
Chasiv Yar Direction:
RU assault operations continue within Chasiv Yar city and on the flanks (WarGonzo).
RU sources report drone donations (quadcopters) received by VDV units (331st Guards Parachute Regt) operating in this direction (Ark Specnaz).
Toretsk Direction: Fighting reported near Panteleimonivka (Rybar, WarGonzo).
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. Heavy fighting continues on multiple sectors; no significant LoC changes reported in last 24h (WarGonzo). UGS (Mar 25) reported 68 RU attempts.
Kurakhove / South Donetsk Direction:
RU forces claim continued pressure towards Rozlyv; UA conducting counterattacks (WarGonzo).
RU forces claim repelling UA attacks near Rozlyv, Veseloe, Vilne Pole (Rybar).
RU claim advance (500m deep, 2.5km wide) near Rozlyv (Rybar, Dva Mayora - Previous).
RU Spetsnaz drone operations reported in Donetsk region, targeting positions, equipment, and other drones (Colonelcassad).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
Heavy fighting reported Stepove – Shcherbaky (Rybar).
RU MoD Claims Liberation of Malye Shcherbaky (Rybar, WarGonzo).
RU sources report fighting ongoing on the outskirts of Lobkove and for Shcherbaky (Rybar, WarGonzo).
High Intensity RU Strikes: 356 strikes (24 Air, 162 UAV, 8 MLRS, 162 Arty) reported over 24h on 13 settlements. Damage to civilian property/infrastructure reported, no civilian casualties mentioned in this update (Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): No significant changes reported in recent updates.
V. Other Significant Updates
Political/Diplomatic:
US-Russia Moratorium Details (RU Claim): Kremlin source (Basurin) claims publication of agreed list of energy infrastructure under 30-day strike moratorium (effective Mar 18): Refineries, pipelines/storage, power generation/transmission (including NPPs, GPP dams). Requires independent verification.
Trump on Negotiations: US President Trump acknowledged possibility that Putin may be deliberately delaying ("зволікати") a peace agreement (RBC-Ukraine).
Hungary-Russia: Hungarian FM Szijjarto reportedly planning visit to Russia today (TASS).
Budapest Memorandum Controversy: Renewed focus on statements by US Special Envoy Grenell claiming Ukraine returned Russian (not Soviet) nuclear weapons. Widely reported and refuted by Ukrainian sources and former US diplomats (Operatsia Z, RBC-Ukr, Tsaplienko). Information warfare element.
Russian Internal Issues:
Video appeal from families of missing soldiers from RU 27th Motor Rifle Brigade (w/c 61899), citing lack of information, overwhelmed morgues/hospitals since Nov 2024 (Butusov Plus). Indicates potential morale and logistical strain.
Technology/Tactics:
Russian: Continued heavy reliance on drones (Shahed strikes, FPV strikes on border/frontlines, recon). Reports of drone-vs-drone engagements (Dva Mayora, Colonelcassad). Propaganda showcasing drone effectiveness and soliciting donations suggests high attrition/demand (Ark Specnaz, Colonelcassad). Artillery used effectively when weather limits drones (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Ukrainian: Ongoing drone operations confirmed by RU interception claims. Successful air defence against Shaheds reported (Sumy, Mykolaiv). Reported staging/concentration near Belgorod border (RU claims).
