Russian MoD Claims: Claimed interception and destruction of 9 Ukrainian UAVs overnight: 5 over Belgorod Oblast, 2 over Kursk Oblast, and 2 over the Black Sea (TASS, 04:22 UTC; Dnevnik Desantnika, 04:38 UTC; ASTRA, 04:51 UTC). Verification required.
Previous Reports: Explosions in Belgorod city (Mar 25, 22:32 UTC).
Russian Tactical Aviation / Guided Bombs (KABs): Threat remains ongoing along frontlines and border areas. UGS (Mar 25) reported 84 RU air strikes using 129 KABs.
Black Sea Missile Threat:
Current Posture: 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier detected in the Black Sea, total potential salvo of up to 4 missiles (UA Navy via RBC-Ukraine, 04:07 UTC; UA General Staff, 04:44 UTC). No Russian naval assets reported in the Sea of Azov (UA Navy, UA General Staff).
Mediterranean Posture: 4 Russian ships present, including 3 Kalibr carriers with a potential total salvo of 26 missiles (UA General Staff, 04:44 UTC).
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Overall Assessment: Positional fighting and clashes continue. Significant Russian focus on information operations portraying repelled Ukrainian incursions and destroyed equipment. Evacuations continue on the Russian side.
Kursk Oblast Fighting (RU Claims):
Oleshnia / Gogolivka Area: Russian VDV forces claim continued operations. Claim Ukrainian forces attempting to retreat in small groups are being targeted from the air. Claim residual Ukrainian resistance is being eliminated. Claim Russian forces have nearly reached the Sumy Oblast border in this sector and are actively targeting Ukrainian drones attempting reconnaissance or reinforcement support. (Dnevnik Desantnika, 04:32 UTC). Requires verification; depicts RU consolidation and pursuit.
Russian Claims & Information Operations:
Destroyed UA Equipment (Kursk): Russian sources disseminated video (allegedly via Arab journalists) showing destroyed Ukrainian HMMWV, Roshel Senator MRAP, and T-72EA tank in Kursk Oblast (Colonelcassad, 04:01 UTC). Propaganda effort; requires verification.
Alleged Poor UA Retreat Planning (Sudzha): TASS published an interview with an alleged captured UA serviceman (Yaroslav Shchurov, comms bn) claiming poor command planning forced UA troops retreating from Sudzha into open terrain, where they were targeted by FPV drones and mortars. (TASS, 04:46 UTC). Propaganda/IO likely exaggerating difficulties or fabricating details.
Fighting Updates (RU Sources - Dva Mayora, 03:41 UTC - Previous): Claimed fighting in Demydovka (Belgorod), Huyevo (Sumy), Zhuravka-Novenke-Basivka, Volodymyrivka (Sumy border). Claimed UA held Oleshnia, Hornal, part of Hoholiivka. Claimed UA buildup near Krasnoyaruzhsky District (Belgorod).
Civilian Impact (RU Claims): Woman injured in Politotdelsky (Belgorod) by drone (Gladkov, 01:58 UTC - Previous); attacks/damage reported in Kazinka, Shebekino, Tishanka, Bessonovka.
Ukrainian Advances (ISW Assessment - Previous): ISW (Mar 26) previously assessed confirmed Ukrainian advances in NW Belgorod Oblast.
Russian Advances (ISW Assessment/RU Claims - Previous): ISW (Mar 26) previously assessed Russian advances near Kursk/Sumy border areas. Russian MoD previously claimed capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (Kursk border).
III. Frontline Activity
Overall Intensity: Remains high across multiple axes. Significant Russian use of air power, drones, and artillery persists.
Lyman Direction: Russian claim (TASS/Marochko, 03:38 UTC - Previous) of 500m advance near Yampolivka. ISW previously reported RU advances near Terny, Spirne. UGS (Mar 25) reported 24 RU attacks.
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar):
RU Claims (Previous): Artillery strike disrupted UA fortification efforts (TASS, 03:48 UTC). Destruction of UA "Rarog" unit position and EW station near Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV recon (Dnevnik Desantnika, 04:04 UTC). Needs verification.
Toretsk Direction: Russian source (Dva Mayora, 03:41 UTC - Previous) claims fighting near Panteleimonivka. ISW previously reported RU advances NW of Toretsk, SE outskirts of Shcherbynivka, near Oleksandropil. UGS (Mar 25) reported 23 RU attacks.
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. UGS (Mar 25) reported 68 RU attempts. Russian info op targets UA 155th Brigade (A5001) allegedly operating here, claiming severe shortages (Colonelcassad, 03:31 UTC - Previous). Propaganda.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Direction:
Russian source (Dva Mayora, 03:41 UTC - Previous) claims RU advance (500m deep, 2.5km wide) near Rozlyv.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): ISW previously reported RU advances into southern Lobkove and central Stepove. Russian MoD claimed liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Russian sources (Rybar, Dva Mayora) claim fighting on outskirts of Lobkove.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):
RU Claim (Previous): Destruction of UA signal relay on sunken vessel near Kinburn Spit using Kornet ATGM (Dnevnik Desantnika, 04:04 UTC). Needs verification.
IV. Other Significant Updates
Political/Diplomatic Context:
US-Russia Talks Follow-up: Russian Ambassador to US, A. Darchiev, returning to Washington (TASS, 04:01 UTC). Russian FM Lavrov issued standard post-talks rhetoric criticizing US/Ukraine (WarGonzo, 04:07 UTC).
UA Commentary on Talks: Ukrainian source highlights RU attacks (Kryvyi Rih, Sumshchyna) coinciding with negotiation rounds (Tsaplienko, 04:34 UTC). Butusov Plus (04:54 UTC) outlines perceived outcomes: agreements mirroring early 2022 (grain corridor, no energy strikes), continued talks, but unchanged Russian demands (5 oblasts, Right Bank) indicating no genuine RU desire for peace, only capitulation.
Russian Internal:
Corruption: Accused Deputy Chief of General Staff (Shamarin) reportedly requests deployment to Ukraine (ASTRA, 04:24 UTC).
Technology/Tactics:
Russian: Continued heavy use of drones (Shahed strike, reconnaissance, FPV targeting alleged retreaters). Reports of ATGM use (Kinburn). Documentation of destroyed UA Western equipment for propaganda (Kursk).
Ukrainian: Ongoing drone operations confirmed by Russian interception claims. Successful air defence against Shahed drones reported.
