Russian MoD Claims: Claimed interception of 9 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Kursk Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, and the Black Sea (TASS, 04:22 UTC). Verification required.
Previous Reports: Explosions in Belgorod city (Mar 25, 22:32 UTC).
Russian Tactical Aviation / Guided Bombs (KABs): Threat remains ongoing along frontlines and border areas. UGS (Mar 25) reported 84 RU air strikes using 129 KABs.
Black Sea Missile Threat:
Current Posture: 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier detected in the Black Sea, total potential salvo of up to 4 missiles (UA Navy via RBC-Ukraine, 04:07 UTC). No Russian naval assets reported in the Sea of Azov.
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Overall Assessment: Positional fighting and clashes continue. Significant Russian focus on information operations portraying repelled Ukrainian incursions and captured/destroyed equipment. Evacuations continue on the Russian side.
Russian Claims & Information Operations:
Destroyed UA Equipment (Kursk): Russian sources disseminated video (allegedly via Arab journalists) showing destroyed Ukrainian HMMWV, Roshel Senator MRAP, and T-72EA tank in Kursk Oblast (Colonelcassad, 04:01 UTC). Propaganda effort; requires verification of location, timing, and context.
Fighting Updates (RU Sources - Dva Mayora, 03:41 UTC):
Demydovka (Belgorod): Claim fighting continues, UA attempts repelled.
Huyevo (Sumy): Claim fighting ongoing.
Other Sumy Border Areas: Claim fighting near Zhuravka-Novenke-Basivka, Volodymyrivka. Claim UA holds Oleshnia, Hornal, part of Hoholiivka.
Krasnoyaruzhsky District (Belgorod): Claim UA buildup near border. Evacuation of children confirmed (Dnevnik Desantnika, 03:52 UTC).
Civilian Impact (RU Claims): Woman injured in Politotdelsky (Belgorod) by drone (Gladkov, 01:58 UTC); attacks/damage reported in Kazinka, Shebekino, Tishanka, Bessonovka.
Ukrainian Advances (ISW Assessment): ISW (Mar 26) previously assessed confirmed Ukrainian advances in NW Belgorod Oblast.
Russian Advances (ISW Assessment/RU Claims): ISW (Mar 26) previously assessed Russian advances near Kursk/Sumy border areas. Russian MoD previously claimed capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (Kursk border).
III. Frontline Activity
Overall Intensity: Remains high across multiple axes. Significant Russian use of air power, drones, and artillery persists.
Lyman Direction: Russian claim (TASS/Marochko, 03:38 UTC) of 500m advance near Yampolivka. ISW previously reported RU advances near Terny, Spirne. UGS (Mar 25) reported 24 RU attacks.
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar):
RU Claims (Artillery/EW): Claim artillery strike disrupted UA fortification efforts near Chasiv Yar (TASS, 03:48 UTC, with thermal video). Claim destruction of UA "Rarog" unit position and EW station near Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV recon (Dnevnik Desantnika, 04:04 UTC). Needs verification.
Toretsk Direction: Russian source (Dva Mayora, 03:41 UTC) claims fighting near Panteleimonivka. ISW previously reported RU advances NW of Toretsk, SE outskirts of Shcherbynivka, near Oleksandropil. UGS (Mar 25) reported 23 RU attacks.
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. UGS (Mar 25) reported 68 RU attempts. Russian info op targets UA 155th Brigade (A5001) allegedly operating here, claiming severe personnel/equipment shortages (Colonelcassad, 03:31 UTC). Propaganda exploiting potential strain.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): ISW previously reported RU advances into southern Lobkove and central Stepove. Russian MoD claimed liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Russian sources (Rybar, Dva Mayora) claim fighting on outskirts of Lobkove.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):
RU Claim (ATGM Strike): Claim destruction of UA signal relay on sunken vessel near Kinburn Spit using Kornet ATGM (Dnevnik Desantnika, 04:04 UTC). Needs verification.
IV. Other Significant Updates
Political/Diplomatic Context:
US-Russia Talks Follow-up: Russian Ambassador to US, A. Darchiev, returning to Washington (TASS, 04:01 UTC). Russian FM Lavrov issued standard post-talks rhetoric criticizing US/Ukraine (WarGonzo, 04:07 UTC).
Czech Concerns: Czech politicians express concerns about potential post-war influx of Ukrainian veterans and associated security risks (Novinky via RVvoenkor, 04:01 UTC).
Russian Internal:
Corruption: Accused Deputy Chief of General Staff (Shamarin) reportedly requests deployment to Ukraine (ASTRA, 04:24 UTC).
Casualties/Damage (Recent):
Okhtyrka (Sumy): Significant civilian infrastructure damage (residential, commercial) from drone attack; no casualties preliminarily reported (RBC-Ukraine, 03:34 UTC).
Russian: Continued heavy use of drones for reconnaissance and strikes (thermal imagery used). Reports of ATGM use against suspected drone infrastructure (Kinburn Spit). Documentation of destroyed UA Western equipment used for propaganda (Kursk).
Ukrainian: Ongoing drone operations confirmed by Russian interception claims and reports of UA strikes inside Russia/Occupied areas. Successful air defence against Shahed drones reported.
