Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 03:58 UTC
I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Intense Widespread Russian UAV Attacks (Shahed-type): Ongoing but winding down, focus shifted to Cherkasy Oblast.
Cherkasy Oblast:
Latest UAV status (03:13 UTC): 3 UAVs active between Cherkasy and Kremenchuk. No new inbound UAVs detected.
Previous reports indicated explosions in Cherkasy city (03:00 UTC) and active Air Defence engagement. Earlier phases involved approx. 14 UAVs circling the city.
Sumy Oblast:
Okhtyrka: Overnight drone strikes caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including 2 multi-story residential buildings, 4 shops, an enterprise administrative building, vehicles, market kiosks, and a utility building fire. No casualties preliminarily reported (RBC-Ukraine, 03:34 UTC).
Other Affected Oblasts (Recent/Previous): Mykolaiv, Poltava, Sumy (border areas), Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk (Kryvyi Rih - significant destruction, no fatalities), Zaporizhzhia.
Russian Claims (Targets): Russian sources (Rybar, Dva Mayora) claim overnight strikes targeted non-energy infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, and Cherkasy, allegedly following US-Russia talks on avoiding energy infrastructure. Verify targets and motive.
Sumy Oblast: Launches reported earlier (01:59 UTC). Activity remains a threat. UGS (Mar 25) reported 84 RU air strikes using 129 KABs across fronts.
Air Defence Activity: Active engagement reported over Cherkasy. Previously confirmed over Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv.
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Overall Assessment: Continued clashes and positional fighting along the border. Both sides claim advances/repelled attacks. Evacuations ongoing on the Russian side. Significant Russian information operations ongoing.
Ukrainian Advances (NW Belgorod Oblast - ISW): ISW analysis (Mar 26, based on Mar 25 data) indicated confirmed Ukrainian advances in NW Belgorod Oblast.
Russian Advances/Claims:
Kursk/Sumy Border (ISW): ISW reports Russian advances near border areas adjacent to Kursk and Sumy Oblasts (Mar 26, based on Mar 25 data).
Kursk/Sumy Border (RU Claims - Dva Mayora): Claim fighting ongoing for Huyevo (Sumy Oblast, near RU border). Claim fighting near Zhuravka-Novenke-Basivka and Volodymyrivka (Sumy Oblast). Claim UA forces still hold Oleshnia, Hornal, part of Hoholiivka (Sumy Oblast border areas).
Liberated Settlements Claim (RU MoD): MoD previously claimed liberation of Mirnoye (Donetsk) and Malye Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia), Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (Kursk border). Verification needed.
Belgorod Oblast (Clashes & Claims):
Popovka: Heavy fighting reported earlier (Mar 25/26). Russian sources provided detailed narratives claiming Ukrainian SSO forces were repelled after initial breach, suffering losses. Verify claims.
Demydovka: Russian sources claim UA forces hold some houses but not the village (Mar 26, 02:34 UTC). Russian source (Dva Mayora, 03:41 UTC) claims continued fighting in Demydovka, alleging UA attempts repelled.
Politotdelsky: Civilian woman reported injured due to alleged Ukrainian drone attack (Governor Gladkov, 01:58 UTC; Dva Mayora, 03:41 UTC).
Krasnoyaruzhsky District: Russian source (Dva Mayora, 03:41 UTC) claims Ukrainian forces are building up group near this district border. Evacuation of children reported (Dnevnik Desantnika, 03:52 UTC).
Other Attacks (RU Claims): Governor/sources report attacks/damage in Kazinka, Shebekino, Tishanka, Bessonovka.
Ukrainian Claims (Kursk Direction - UGS Mar 25): Ongoing defensive operations, repelling numerous Russian assaults, significant RU air/artillery attacks.
Russian Information Operations & Tactics:
Underground Infiltration Training: RU sources detailed training ("Operation Potok") using pipe mock-ups for infiltration, acknowledging difficulty and UA artillery counters (Colonelcassad, 03:01 UTC).
POW/Civilian Narratives: Continued dissemination of alleged captured UA soldier video (Kursk), alleged civilian testimonies, POW abuse claims. Treat as potential propaganda/coercion.
Alleged UA Unit Weakness (155th Bde / A5001): Russian sources (Colonelcassad, 03:31 UTC) pushing narrative of severe personnel/equipment shortages (Leopard tanks mentioned) and morale issues in UA 155th Brigade (Unit A5001, reportedly near Pokrovsk), allegedly due to reduced Western aid, questioning feasibility of forming a Corps. Shared purported UA personnel reports (dated Mar 2, 2025) showing significant manning gaps (~40% present in one example) and absences. Propaganda effort exploiting potential genuine strain on frontline units.
III. Frontline Activity (Based on UGS Report Mar 25, ISW Report Mar 26, Recent RU Claims)
Overall Intensity: High combat intensity persists across multiple axes. Significant Russian use of air power (KABs), drones, and artillery.
Kharkiv Direction: 4 RU attacks repelled/ongoing near Vovchansk, Tykhe, Kamianka (UGS Mar 25).
Kupiansk Direction: 5 RU assaults repelled near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka (UGS Mar 25). RU sources (Rybar, Dva Mayora) claim advances near Dvorichna/Sagunivka and a new bridgehead between Krasne Pershe/Kamianka.
Lyman Direction: 24 RU attacks reported; 6 ongoing (UGS Mar 25). ISW reported RU advances near Terny, Spirne. Fighting near Terny, Torske, Dibrova, Bilohorivka. Russian claim (TASS/Marochko, 03:38 UTC) of 500m advance near Yampolivka.
Siversk Direction: 4 RU attacks repelled; 1 ongoing near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Ivano-Darivka (UGS Mar 25).
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar): 2 RU clashes repelled near Predtechyne, Bila Hora (UGS Mar 25). Russian claim (TASS, 03:48 UTC) + thermal video of artillery strike disrupting UA fortification efforts near Chasiv Yar. Indicates continued pressure.
Toretsk Direction: 23 RU attacks reported; 2 ongoing (UGS Mar 25). ISW reported RU advances NW of Toretsk, SE outskirts of Shcherbynivka, near Oleksandropil. Russian source (Dva Mayora, 03:41 UTC) claims fighting near Panteleimonivka.
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. 68 RU attempts reported; 4 ongoing (UGS Mar 25). UGS claimed significant RU losses. Intense fighting near multiple settlements including Ocheretyne. RU info op targeting UA unit (A5001/155th Bde) allegedly operating here (Colonelcassad).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Direction: 18 RU assaults stopped near Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiia, Kostiantynopil; 3 ongoing (UGS Mar 25). Russian source (Dva Mayora, 03:41 UTC) claims RU advance (500m deep, 2.5km wide) near Rozlyv after repelling UA attacks near Rozlyv, Vesele, Vilne Pole.
Huliaipole Direction: 1 RU attack repelled near Pryvilne (UGS Mar 25).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 9 RU attempts reported; 6 ongoing near Kaminske, Lobkove, Stepove (UGS Mar 25). ISW reported RU advances into southern Lobkove and central Stepove. Russian MoD claimed liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Russian sources (Rybar, Dva Mayora) claim advances towards Kam'ians'ke and fighting on outskirts of Lobkove.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 clash reported (UGS Mar 25). Russian airstrikes continue.
IV. Other Significant Updates
Political/Strategic Context:
Ceasefire Discourse: Ongoing Russian narrative framing (Lavrov) suggesting European shift towards ceasefire after alleged Ukrainian offer (requires verification). Contrast with Zelensky's stated expectation of Russian violations.
US-Russia Talks (Previous): Negotiations concluded (Mar 24). Joint statement expected Mar 25 (details pending). Focused analysis required upon release.
Moldova: Pro-Russian Gagauz leader detained.
US Arctic Interest: US VP visit to Greenland (Mar 28) signals increased focus on Arctic security.
Russian Information Operations:
Focus on alleged UA unit weaknesses (155th Bde), POW mistreatment, coercive mobilization, desecration of religious sites (Kursk). Consistent themes aiming to undermine UA morale, legitimacy, and international support.
Casualties/Damage:
Okhtyrka (Sumy): Significant civilian infrastructure damage from drone attack, no casualties reported yet.
Kryvyi Rih: Significant destruction from earlier drone attacks, no fatalities reported.
Border Clashes: RU claims casualties among border guards (Popovka).
Journalist Casualties (Previous): Multiple Russian journalists confirmed killed/injured (Mar 24), attributed by Russia to HIMARS (Kupiansk, LPR).
SBU Activity: Detention in Kryvyi Rih (individual plotting attack on TCC under RU direction).
Equipment/Technology:
Russian: Widespread improvised armor observed. Snipers reportedly targeting heavy UA drones. Documented specialized training for underground infiltration. Claims disrupting UA fortifications near Chasiv Yar with artillery.
