Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 02:58 UTC
I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Intense Widespread Russian UAV Attacks (Shahed-type): Ongoing high intensity across multiple Oblasts.
Cherkasy Oblast: Remains the major focus. Approximately 14 UAVs reported circling Cherkasy city (02:09 UTC). Explosions reported earlier (02:05 UTC). Latest update (02:39 UTC) indicates 3 UAVs still over Cherkasy (under engagement), 1 moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast past Kremenchuk, 1 near Zolotonosha, 3 between Cherkasy and Kremenchuk, and 1 on the Cherkasy/Kirovohrad border.
Other Affected Oblasts (Recent): Mykolaiv (threats towards Bereznehuvate, Pervomaisk), Poltava (circling south of Poltava city), Sumy (circling near Velyka Pysarivka), Kirovohrad (UAV west of Kropyvnytskyi heading towards Cherkasy). Air Force updates (00:55 UTC) indicated broad movement across Poltava, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy Oblasts.
Previous Impacts: Significant destruction but no fatalities reported in Kryvyi Rih from earlier massive attacks. AD work confirmed earlier in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (alert ended 01:32 UTC).
Sumy Oblast: Launches reported by tactical aviation (01:59 UTC). Activity reported earlier (SE, NE). UGS reported 84 Russian air strikes using 129 KABs across various fronts (as of 22:00 Local, March 25).
Air Defence Activity: Active over Cherkasy (ongoing). Previously confirmed active over Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and near Balovne (Mykolaiv Oblast).
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Ukrainian Advances (NW Belgorod Oblast - ISW): ISW analysis (March 26, based on March 25 data) indicates confirmed Ukrainian advances in NW Belgorod Oblast.
Russian Advances (Kursk/Sumy Border - ISW): ISW reports Russian advances near border areas adjacent to Kursk and Sumy Oblasts (March 26, based on March 25 data).
Belgorod Oblast (Clashes & Claims):
Popovka: Heavy fighting reported. Russian sources (RVvoenkor, 02:34 UTC) provide a detailed narrative claiming Ukrainian SSO forces initially broke into the village but were repelled after heavy fighting involving FSB border guards, Spetsnaz, drone operators, artillery, and reinforcing army units (128th Brigade mentioned, likely RU unit). Claim Ukrainian forces suffered losses and retreated to border positions. RU positions reportedly reinforced. Claim Russian border guards called fire upon themselves. Several Russian casualties reported (wounded/killed). Previous: Fighting reported earlier (22:00 UTC). ISW map (March 25 data) showed claimed Russian control.
Demydovka: Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces hold some houses but not the village. ISW map (March 25 data) shows claimed Russian control. Mentioned as starting point for Popovka attack in RVvoenkor report.
Politotdelsky: Woman reported injured due to alleged Ukrainian attack (Governor Gladkov, 01:58 UTC).
Kursk Oblast (Clashes & Claims):
Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: Russian report confirms RU control, claimed recaptured approx. two weeks ago. Context: RU MoD claimed liberation on Mar 23.
Sudzha Area / Pogrebki: Russian sources claim discovery of destroyed M2 Bradley after alleged liberation.
Captured Ukrainian Soldier: Russian sources (Colonelcassad, 02:33 UTC) disseminated video of an alleged captured Ukrainian soldier in Kursk Oblast claiming Kyiv gave no order to withdraw from Russian territory and threatened prosecution for retreat. Treat as potential propaganda/coerced statement.
Russian Claims (General):
MoD claimed liberation of Mirnoye (Donetsk) and Malye Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia).
MoD claimed inflicting >260 casualties/24h on Ukrainian forces near Kursk border.
Ukrainian Claims (Kursk Direction - UGS 22:00 Local, March 25): Ongoing operations, repelling 28 Russian assaults (3 ongoing). Reports significant RU air (15 strikes/19 KABs) and artillery attacks.
Russian Information Operations:
Kazachya Loknya Church (Kursk): TASS (02:03 UTC) disseminated RU MoD video claiming UA forces used an Orthodox church for storage/defense and desecrated it. Potential propaganda.
Kursk Civilian Testimony: TASS (01:02 UTC) disseminated video of alleged local claiming UA threats. Potential propaganda.
Sudzha Orphanage: TASS continued narrative regarding alleged Feb 1, 2025 attack.
III. Frontline Activity (Based on UGS Report 22:00 Local, March 25 & ISW Report, March 26)
Overall Intensity: High combat intensity persists (183 clashes reported by UGS as of 22:00 Local, March 25). Significant Russian air, drone, and artillery use.
Russian Tactics & Equipment:
Armor Modifications: Widespread use of improvised "cope cages" and slat armor visually confirmed, indicating adaptation against drones, though damaged equipment still visible.
Sniper vs. Drones: Russian source claims snipers (29th CAA) are using thermal sights at night to target heavy Ukrainian drones ("Baba Yaga"), claiming success. Also claims downed UA drones treated with chemicals (Potential Hazard - Investigate).
Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian attacks repelled/ongoing near Vovchansk, Tykhe, Kamianka.
Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian assaults repelled near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka. UA confirmed successful strike (Mar 24) on RU media personnel.
Lyman Direction: 24 Russian attacks reported; 6 ongoing. ISW reports assessed Russian advances near Terny and Spirne. Significant fighting near multiple locations including Terny, Torske, Dibrova, Bilohorivka.
Kramatorsk Direction: 2 Russian clashes repelled near Predtechyne, Bila Hora.
Toretsk Direction: 23 Russian attacks reported near Toretsk, Dyliivka, Krymske; 2 ongoing. ISW reports Russian advances NW of Toretsk, SE outskirts of Shcherbynivka, and near Oleksandropil.
Huliaipole Direction: 1 Russian attack repelled near Pryvilne.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 9 Russian attempts reported; 6 ongoing near Kaminske, Lobkove, Stepove. ISW reports Russian advances into southern Lobkove and central Stepove (based on Mar 25 geolocated footage). Russian MoD claims liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Russian sources claim advances north of Zherebianky. UA 128th Mtn Assault Bde drone strikes documented.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 clash reported. Russian airstrikes on multiple settlements. ISW map shows fighting near Kozachi Laheri, Nova Kakhovka.
IV. Other Significant Updates
Political/Strategic Context:
Ceasefire Discourse: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov (TASS, 02:31 UTC) claims European leaders shifted rhetoric towards supporting a ceasefire after Ukraine allegedly agreed to a 30-day halt, contrasting with previous calls to arm Ukraine first. Implies Russian narrative that the diplomatic initiative lies with Russia following Ukraine's supposed offer.
President Zelensky (earlier) anticipates a short window (1-3 months) between any ceasefire and a final agreement, expecting Russian violations.
Moldova: Pro-Russian Gagauz leader Hutsul detained at Chisinau airport related to alleged illicit Russian funding.
US Arctic Interest: US Vice President Vance announced upcoming visit (March 28) to Greenland to assess security, visit US troops (Space Force presence mentioned), and check "security affairs," criticizing past US/Danish "neglect." (RBC-Ukraine, 02:37 UTC). Potentially indicates increased US focus on Arctic security amidst global tensions.
Russian Information Operations:
POW Abuse Claims: Recurring narrative pushed via Colonelcassad (01:05 UTC) with alleged testimony. Potential propaganda.
Ukrainian Mobilization: Videos shared (Colonelcassad, 02:11 UTC) allegedly depicting "voluntary" mobilization, potentially including coercive methods. Aims to undermine UA mobilization/morale. Potential propaganda.
Casualties: March 24 Sumy strike: 106 injured (23 children). No fatalities in Kryvyi Rih drone attacks despite destruction. Civilian injury in Politotdelsky (Belgorod). RU claims casualties among border guards in Popovka clash.
SBU Activity: Detention in Kryvyi Rih of individual accused of plotting attack on TCC under Russian direction.
Equipment/Technology:
Russian: Claims development of "Sifa" anti-drone FPV. Snipers adapting tactics vs. heavy UA drones. Widespread armor modifications observed. MoD claims strikes on 148 UA areas/airfields/UAV CPs. Claimed Lancet strike on Leopard tank (Pokrovsk).
Ukrainian: Confirmed strike on RU media personnel (Kupiansk area). Documented drone strikes on RU equipment/troops (Orikhiv).
